Luck worth more than competence

January 31st, 2014 at 10:00 am by David Farrar



The above is from the book “Luck” by Ed Smith.

It is interesting that a head of government does better when the world is strong, rather than when their local is strong compared to the world .

That makes the high ratings for the more remarkable when you consider that the world economy has been so lacklustre for the last five years.

7 Responses to “Luck worth more than competence”

  1. martinh (1,460 comments) says:

    Come on man be actually factual about this. I will start calling you Cunliffe soon. That extract says nothing about it being exclusively world economy and not local economy.
    No other country is rebuilding its second biggest city, no other country is as large a dairy exporter as NZ and thus so able to benefit from sky high milk prices.

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  2. Andrei (4,508 comments) says:

    That makes the high ratings for John Key the more remarkable when you consider that the world economy has been so lacklustre for the last five years.

    Nothing remarkable about John Key’s ratings which have nothing to do with the economy being “lacklustre” or otherwise and have everything to do with the opposition being “lacklustre” which is actually being kind to them.

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  3. martinh (1,460 comments) says:

    The world boom in dairy prices is whats gone on too.
    It says the govt does get a boost of percentage when local growth is higher over world which contradicts your statement.
    Take out the milk price and chch and we have left a spain style housing bubble. The scary thing is chch will slow rebuilding one day and the other countries a making more milk now. So we a left with a spain bubble

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  4. martinh (1,460 comments) says:

    I wonder why anyone would read that book, but each to their own.
    It doesnt say what local growth is like when world growth is up above average. Ed fails to say what local conditions were like when world growth was up. Was local growth above long run average/ in expansion?
    Also his second point of when local growth is above world growth he doesnt say if that local growth is still above what is normal such as what we are having from a chch rebuild and dairy boom.
    Growth could still be above world growth (not hard in last few years) but below local normal growth so thus of course people wouldnt be as happy.

    if it was me that book would be sent back to publisher with a refund request, or maybe to Cunliffe so he can pull out some more bad calls

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  5. Nigel Kearney (1,986 comments) says:

    The boost to the economy from the Christchurch rebuild is minor. It brings in some overseas capital via reinsurance but is mostly local capital that would have been invested elsewhere and used to produce new goods and services rather than replacing existing ones. The dairy boom has helped, but would not have helped the opposition because the greens want to destroy the dairy industry.

    Mostly I agree with Andrei. The book obviously doesn’t allow for the boost in popularity that naturally follows when the alternative is someone like Goff or Shearer.

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  6. martinh (1,460 comments) says:

    Really you dont think that all the rebuilding is not affecting manufacturers demand around NZ?
    Have you tried to get a booking on the ferry lately? Have you seen all the freight shipments heading into Chch?
    This CHCH rebuild is a massive stimulator on all parts of the economy and when it dies out we will have lost a very big component of this growth.
    What do you mean by mostly local capital- last i heard it was mostly the massive overseas reinssurance companies paying for all this.
    Are you trying to tell me that local insurance companies had being sitting on billions of dollars that they were going to use to build good and services until this earthquake came along and now they have needed it to rebuild the city?
    Thats a conspiracy theory

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  7. slightlyrighty (2,423 comments) says:

    What does it say about being lucky in that your opposition is incompetent?

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