Fisking deaths from climate change

February 6th, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

Thomas Lumley blogs at Stats Chat:

Stuff has fallen for an egregiously over-promoted paper on future temperature-related deaths in the UK

The story says:

Deaths caused by hot weather are projected to rise by more than 250 per cent, with the elderly most at risk, the New Zealand Doctor magazine reported today.

The increased death rate, driven by , population growth and ageing, would occur by the middle of the century, according to research published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health on Monday.

It was found that “in the absence of any adaptation of the population”, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by about 257 per cent by the 2050s, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2 per cent.

Where did this story comes from? The Greens!

Stuff attributes this story to NZ Doctor, but all they did was reprint an explicitly unedited Green Party press release.

So Stuff didn’t realise that it was not a news report, but a press release. Or maybe they didn’t care.

As to the facts:

Professor David Spiegelhalter has already savaged this one elegantly on his blog.  All the projected increase in temperature-related deaths in the UK is due to the increase in the number of elderly people.

If you compare people of the same age, the projections say cold-related deaths will fall by about twice as much as heat-related deaths rise, as his graph of the numbers from the paper shows.  That is, the paper actually predicts that global warming will reduce the number of temperature-related deaths in the UK.

Will Stuff run the truth as prominently as the original story.

Finally a point worth noting:

In the USA or Australia, let alone Africa, India, and other less-wealthy tropical places, there is going to be a real problem with temperature-related deaths from global warming.  In many more parts of the world, there’s a potential for weather-related deaths from drought, flood, storm, and ‘tropical’ disease.

Heat waves in the UK are not in the top ten list of things to worry about from global warming. Pretending they are is likely to be counterproductive.

Indeed.

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18 Responses to “Fisking deaths from climate change”

  1. Colville (2,056 comments) says:

    The Gweens lying to the Public thru a complicit media.

    What a surprise !

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  2. jims_whare (398 comments) says:

    Hmm such a real problem in the UK at the moment when they are going through their wettest, coldest Winter on record. (Was on Newstalk ZB this morning)

    I mean for real – these nutters also cry a river about ‘population explosions’ so I would have thought that more people dropping dead from a hippy green point of view was a good thing?

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  3. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    A prolonged cold snap, high heating bills and an early start to the flu season caused thousands more pensioners to die last winter, it was claimed today.

    An extra 36,700 deaths occurred between December 2008 to March 2009 – an increase of 49 per cent on the previous year.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230509/Cold-snap-early-start-flu-season-caused-thousands-pensioners-die-winter.html

    Death toll rises in America’s big freeze: Tens of thousands warned they could be without power for two weeks as ice storms bring down cables

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2519364/Death-toll-rises-Americas-big-freeze-Tens-thousands-warned-power-weeks-ice-storms-bring-cables.html#ixzz2sTvnT6JC
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    Cold snap has killed more than 600 people in eastern Europe

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/feb/15/cold-snap-eastern-europe

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  4. jcuk (576 comments) says:

    Whether the increase in deaths comes from a larger pool of possible victims or from climate change it is still a cause for concern.

    The problem at Stuff is the employment of younger people to save wages at the expense of older cyncial hacks. Also the volume of work they are expected to handle which means they do not have time to consider the value and honesty of the material passing through their hands.

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  5. Simon (677 comments) says:

    Have noticed generally climate propaganda being pumped out at a steady rate since those clowns got stuck in ice that their own computer models said didnt exist.

    If anything the green press releases are now the death rattle of climate change fraud.

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  6. jcuk (576 comments) says:

    It is simplistic to laugh at the big feeze to ridiculue global warming but really the situation is that the weather change is away from eveness towards extremes so while the northern hemisphere is suffering from the cold next summer it will be heat and drought.

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  7. tvb (4,192 comments) says:

    I think we are talking about about climate change. But the Greens think socialism will solve it

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  8. ZenTiger (425 comments) says:

    Climate Change. A perfect storm, in a teacup.

    It’s a great opportunity to count the same death multiple times.

    1. The WEATHER killed Mrs Fleeting. One dead.
    2. She died from POVERTY, because she couldn’t turn the heater on. Two dead.
    3. She died on a WAITING LIST from the underfunded medical system. Three dead.

    And what’s worst of all, she wasn’t allowed to top herself when the power bill arrived, because euthanasia is against the law.
    Oh the humanity!

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  9. OneTrack (2,559 comments) says:

    But the Greens think communism will solve it. fify

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  10. bringbackdemocracy (391 comments) says:

    Is it true that “The Dominion” has been nominated for NZ’s best Fiction Writing of the year award?????

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  11. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    If anything the green press releases are now the death rattle of climate change fraud.

    Only the very stupid and the fanatics still support this nonsense. Most of the climate liars have left KB. They disappeared after the leaked IPCC report confirming what we all knew. The models were wrong and there is no warming.

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  12. peterwn (3,138 comments) says:

    Cannot readily identify who publishes NZ Doctor, but it seems to reflect a certain culture among some health professionals. Interestingly someone who works in a public hospital came out with all sorts of negative comments about John Key. These reflected the usual left wing smearings about John Key rather than factual relevant examples. I can only imaging that unionists etc are promoting these left wing perceptions round the hospital. That person did not really have an answer that the taxes on the salaries of higher paid health professionals were likely to skyrocket under a Labour/ Green government.

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  13. PaulL (5,871 comments) says:

    According to Bjorn Lomberg the net economic cost of “climate change” will be positive until about 2060. So for every story we see about increased deaths, storm damage etc, there should be a story about feeding the world through increased crop production, reducing in deaths from cold, reduction in heating costs etc etc.

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  14. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    This is no joke. Thousands are dying every year and living in cold damp misery because energy is unaffordable due to the efforts of the warmists. Punitive taxes on efficient energy production, preventing new power stations and trillions spent of useless green energy fantasies are costing lives. Every one who does not aggressively fight this garbage has blood on their hands.

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  15. Paulus (2,485 comments) says:

    Had em today from rellie just south of London.
    Flooded again in the valley where the trains go, and the main roads are still flooded and more expected.
    Wow – no drought.
    Has gone on for months with no let up expected.

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  16. sbk (308 comments) says:

    “if anything the green press releases are now the death rattle of climate change fraud.”…death rattle of the MSM also…even the low-information/indoctrinated types have felt the cold….shit,right now the only thing newsprint is good for…is to help me start my fire.

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  17. thePeoplesFlag (168 comments) says:

    And of course, when drought/floods causes world food supplies to run short, the resulting starvation will affect us last anyway.

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  18. Crusader (274 comments) says:

    It is simplistic to laugh at the big feeze to ridiculue global warming but really the situation is that the weather change is away from eveness towards extremes so while the northern hemisphere is suffering from the cold next summer it will be heat and drought.

    When the globe stubbornly refused to follow the computer models and warm, the alarmists changed their tune and started calling it “climate change” (since climate has always changed and will always continue to change, any further change can now be blamed on naughty humans and the wickedness of capitalism).
    So I say to you jcuk, “show me the evidence” that weather extremes are more frequent (no, anecdotes are not evidence) and prove that any change you can find is caused by human influence and not natural variation (since we know for a fact that the climate has wildly swung around under natural influence in the past).

    A scientific theory explains observations by a feasible process and makes falsifiable predictions. When further evidence fails to follow the predictions of the models, the models must be thrown out and new ones formulated. Anything else is faith based. If you want to follow a quasi-religion that believes in a kind of original sin of carbon usage, and the imminent apocalypse of global warming, that’s OK by me, just stop calling it science.

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