The mood in different countries

February 4th, 2014 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

I’ve just published Curia’s monthly polling newsletter (can subscribe here), and of interest is the difference in mood between countries.

Many ask if people think their country is generally heading in the right or the wrong direction. They difference between right and wrong is called the net direction. The current for the five countries we cover are:

  • United States -32%
  • United Kingdom -21%
  • Canada – 17%
  • Australia +2%
  • New Zealand +39%

Why do people think New Zealand is so much more positive than all the others?

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45 Responses to “The mood in different countries”

  1. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (894 comments) says:

    That is because they know David Cunliffe the messiah and Russel Norman, the Finance Kid will be taking over in November 2014. Long live Labour and their tax and spend policies.

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  2. unaha-closp (1,180 comments) says:

    Spot the country suffering from the most baseless optimism.

    Key might want to have an early election, before reality kicks back in.

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  3. tvb (4,501 comments) says:

    This is good for no change in Government. But people have to vote National to avoid that. Winston is too unreliable. I predict the Green vote will be less than they are polling because of a low turnout. This will affect Labour as well. But the Nats will turn out.

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  4. wikiriwhis business (4,116 comments) says:

    Just read Harold McMillam, UK PM, sent a message to South Africa stating the wind of change is coming in 1960.

    I would believe a storm is coming in the long term for our generation.

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  5. dishy (248 comments) says:

    Unaha-closp, are you that dismissive and disrespectful of people that you challenge their optimism? How very Green of you.

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  6. wikiriwhis business (4,116 comments) says:

    Does it really mater who wins the election when the TPP will be signed regardless?

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  7. kiwi in america (2,508 comments) says:

    I travel to 3 and live in 1 of the 5 countries on this list regularly on business and the objective surveys are matched by my subjective feeling. The mood in the US (Main St) is one of wearying uncertainty and grimly hanging on (notwithstanding Wall St prices), Canada has soured from optimism to more recent pessimism whilst Australia has slumped from floating above the GFC fray to a palpable souring of sentiment to uncertainty and cautiousness.

    New Zealand felt positively buoyant on my December 2013 visit – in every business meeting local participants commented on favourable trading conditions and future optimism both specifically for their industry and for the country as a whole.

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  8. Souvlaki (45 comments) says:

    Yeah,intuitively you’d have to say that the political status quo is more likely to be the result of the election. Accepting that ‘common sense’ is actually uncommon,you would ( in my arrogant opinion at least),be pretty thick to vote the current left mob in. My optimism is founded in the belief that the bulk of people at least can sort shit from clay :-).

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  9. OTGO (560 comments) says:

    New Zealand +39%
    We have won the RWC, the AB’s have just had an unbeaten 2013 season and The Black Caps have just beaten the #1 one day side in the world without a loss. It’s summer, the fishing ain’t too bad right now and I’ve managed to get my handicap to stay in single figures for 3 months now. What’s not to be positive about?
    I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on politics for the countries mood.

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  10. beautox (422 comments) says:

    One thing is that it is the middle of the summer in Aus and NZ – both positive (although summer is not always such a positive thing in Aus, with it’s wildfires). And the middle of a cold winter in the negative ones.

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  11. Psycho Milt (2,419 comments) says:

    Why do people think New Zealand is so much more positive than all the others?

    1. It wasn’t hit as hard as other countries by the GFC, thanks to Aussie banks not collapsing and the last Labour govt having paid off the public debt.

    2. People generally are doing OK, because the incoming Nat govt in 2008 largely stuck with Labour’s programme and borrowed to cover it, rather than going with the austerity measures implemented elsewhere.

    3. It’s starting to recover from the GFC – even if it’s mainly due to the Chch rebuild and high commodity prices, it’s still growth.

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  12. hj (7,063 comments) says:

    39% say we are headed in the right direction (61% don’t?). How many of those 39% say it with confidence? How many are young with no experience of NZ 40 or 50 years ago (as booring old Maori/Pakeha farts have)?

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  13. smttc (761 comments) says:

    wiki, care to elucidate on what the shit you are talking about @ 10.24am.

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  14. kiwiantennas (3 comments) says:

    i feel more relaxed in new zealand, but not that much in auckland you know

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  15. Radman (143 comments) says:

    Why do people think New Zealand is so much more positive than all the others?

    Because they see Jamie Whyte as an excellent leader of ACT and there is light at the end of the liberal tunnel!!

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  16. srylands (414 comments) says:

    “People generally are doing OK, because the incoming Nat govt in 2008 largely stuck with Labour’s programme and borrowed to cover it, rather than going with the austerity measures implemented elsewhere.”

    No, the Government has dramatically curtailed the runaway growth in public sector consumption spending that occurred under the previous government, AND it avoided austerity, AND it changed the tax mix AND it invested billions in new infrastructure.

    Yes it could have done more, but I would not say it “stuck with Labour’s programme”.

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  17. srylands (414 comments) says:

    “39% say we are headed in the right direction (61% don’t?).”

    silly hj. It is a net number. 39% is remarkably positive.

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  18. labrator (1,850 comments) says:

    psycho milt is the 61%

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  19. Pete George (23,682 comments) says:

    39% say we are headed in the right direction (61% don’t?).

    No, 39% is the difference between the right direction and the wrong direction.

    The details aren’t given but an example would be if 69% said right direction and 30% said wrong direction. Difference 39%.

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  20. wikiriwhis business (4,116 comments) says:

    “wiki, care to elucidate on what the shit you are talking about @ 10.24am.”

    If you didn’t confine yourself to such a small corner of the internet and studied balanced views from alternative

    financial spokes people you would know what I’m talking about.

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  21. labrator (1,850 comments) says:

    If you didn’t confine yourself to such a small corner of the internet and studied balanced views from alternative

    financial spokes people you would know what I’m taling about.

    Is philu your dealer?

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  22. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Forget the mood, just get rid of that obese German criminal slug in Auckland. Even the weirdo MP from Wellington Central is aligning to him. Is he a rainbow or what!

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  23. nickb (3,696 comments) says:

    What’s funny is the +39% are probably also financially supporting the negatives via the tax and transfer system. The negatives are probably the types that get outbid on a Grey Lynn villa by Asians and ring the Herald requesting a front page “expose” on how unfair it all is.

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  24. Nigel Kearney (1,047 comments) says:

    I have no idea why it is +39, but I do enjoy people trying to explain why it lends support to whatever they previously believed.

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  25. OneTrack (3,221 comments) says:

    wiki – “Does it really mater who wins the election when the TPP will be signed regardless”

    If you care about things like the price of petrol, housing interest rates, keeping your job and freedom of speech then yes, yes it does.

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  26. Samuel Smith (276 comments) says:

    One major global trend in those polls – People don’t like tories.

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  27. Manolo (14,044 comments) says:

    We feel happy because (fingers crossed) Silent T and his socialist mob should bite the dust on Election Day.

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  28. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    S Smith: Why are you not looking for a job . . . your comments are those of an envious left-wing loser.

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  29. labrator (1,850 comments) says:

    One major global trend in those polls – People don’t like tories.

    I like how you wear your idiocy on your sleeve. Should make you easy to identify and avoid in public.

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  30. Samuel Smith (276 comments) says:

    @igm I’m not look for a job. Partner’s income plus WFF does me nicely.

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  31. Psycho Milt (2,419 comments) says:

    Yes it could have done more, but I would not say it “stuck with Labour’s programme”.

    I would. Given the GFC, I was expecting an incoming Nat government would move rapidly to scrap Labour’s programme by dropping Kiwirail, Kiwibank, Working for Families, the Cullen Fund and interest-free student loans, and that it would re-introduce previous Nat efforts like the Employment Contracts Act, user pays for the health system and privatisation of accident insurance. And yet here we are, years later, with Labour’s programme still intact, extensive borrowing to pay for it and very little Nat stuff to show for their years in government – some public service cuts, some part-privatisations, some tax cuts for the rich, some half-hearted welfare reform, but overall still pretty much as Labour left it. Which is great – I’m pleasantly surprised.

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  32. dime (10,100 comments) says:

    “@igm I’m not look for a job. Partner’s income plus WFF does me nicely.” – youre welcome.

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  33. dime (10,100 comments) says:

    A few things that help

    * good summer
    * good sporting results
    * house prices – those who own are feeling richer
    * we have come through a hard few years, earthquakes, financial meltdown etc a feeling of “it has to get better”
    * lowish interest rates
    * a very small muslim population
    * a steady govt. sure we have the left that just HATE key. but its not like the US where the country is just divided. Aussie where they had an abomination of a government (taking their medicine now). the UK where the tories are trying to fix what the left did for 16 years (they dont like their medicine).
    * crime is low

    we all bitch about things we want to happen that arent, but the reality is we live in a great country.

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  34. OneTrack (3,221 comments) says:

    Psycho

    You missed Item 4 – We aren’t ruled by a hard-left regime who will tax the productive sector to death to promote the unproductive sector.

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  35. nickb (3,696 comments) says:

    @igm I’m not look for a job. Partner’s income plus WFF does me nicely.

    A kept man? That explains the chip on the shoulder

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  36. gravedodger (1,569 comments) says:

    @Samuel Smith 11 15 Please define tories.

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  37. dime (10,100 comments) says:

    nickb – sometimes he misbehaves and she cuts his allowance. Then he gets really spiteful about “rich tories”.

    rich being where both man & woman work hard…

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  38. nickb (3,696 comments) says:

    Lol ^^^

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  39. Harriet (5,121 comments) says:

    Why do people think New Zealand is so much more positive than all the others?

    Mr Craigs on the horizon! :cool:

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  40. jakejakejake (138 comments) says:

    32% of US respondents hate black people.

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  41. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    S Smith: You sure fit the criteria of a Labourite. Not even a bludger, but a leech. Fancy having the temerity to be proud of sponging off one’s wife. Shows the unintelligent failures Labour attract.

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  42. bhudson (4,740 comments) says:

    John Clarke is going to have to do a re-write. It appears We Do Know How Lucky We Are

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  43. Viking2 (11,562 comments) says:

    Reserve Bank may spoil party
    The economy is set to grow about 3.5 per cent this year, but the Reserve Bank will take away the punch bowl “just when the party is getting good”, ASB Bank forecasts show.

    “Borrowers need to be prepared for higher interest rates,” ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says in the bank’s latest quarterly forecasts, out today.
    ========================

    spoil it they will.
    Constantly repeating the foolishness that links interest rates to imported inflation will do the job.
    We remain with a large number of unemployed and under employed people whist sucking more often uneducated immigrants into the system that we have to feed.

    Free up the Labour Market and reduce the living subsidy transferred from tax payers to many of these and inflation will trickle down.

    But they won’t. It will be measured by the new cars you buy, the fags you buy, the continuing rise of local and Govt. charges. Oh and don’t forget the increasing costs of your oversea’s travel nor the inflationary effect of increasing interest rates. Especially when NZ has more cash coming across the border than anytime in its existence.

    Its blows me away that we have record oversea’s receipts going into bank coffers, bank margins that are twice what they were 6-7 years ago (when they were 1.25- 1.5%) and the greedy pricks want more. Worse that the Reserve is so shallow in its thinking that it is about to play right into the banks hands.

    Methinks the banks want a lot more competition again.

    If you don’t think so them work out the extra cost of a 300k mortgage if the rates rise 1 or 2 %, take that off your after tax income and then ask the wife if it will impact on your family and if it constitutes real inflation for your family.
    The beneficiaries of the banks largess are never the small depositors in anything but a minor sense but the banks themselves.

    So essentially giving depositors another half or one a percent is inflationary just as increasing someones mortgage interest is inflationary. Add that to the fags the oversea’s travel etc etc and you have a virtuous Bank Governors circle. Guaranteed inflation which leads to a Bank Governor raising bank rates which leads to the Bank Governors pay being increased.

    Frankly few of those things are in my spending budget as we try to save some money so we can retire and try that travel bit, just like so many others.
    Actually increasing my interest rates is the biggest contributor to the inflation outlook in our lives.

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  44. hj (7,063 comments) says:

    nickb

    What’s funny is the +39% are probably also financially supporting the negatives via the tax and transfer system. The negatives are probably the types that get outbid on a Grey Lynn villa by Asians and ring the Herald requesting a front page “expose” on how unfair it all is.
    …………
    For the housing market’s winners, the gains have been spectacular.
    Infometrics director Gareth Morgan calculates that between 1989 and 2005, the residential property market has provided investors – and owners – with a tax-free 319% gain.
    http://www.catalyst2.co.nz/blog/news/the-rent-trap/

    etc, etc
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/4622459/Government-policies-blamed-for-house-prices

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  45. adze (2,129 comments) says:

    @PsychoMilt

    And yet here we are, years later, with Labour’s programme still intact, extensive borrowing to pay for it and very little Nat stuff to show for their years in government

    You forgot capping growth on the number of public sector FTEs, which had increased by a third between 2003 and 2008 (great for Thorndon house prices, not so great for balancing the books). And the current govt is not borrowing like they were in the first couple of years.

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