Latest poll

March 7th, 2014 at 3:06 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged the latest Roy Morgan poll at Curiablog.

The gap between National and Labour/Greens has increased from 6% to 7.5%, NZ First have dropped below the 5% threshold and the country heading in the right direction indicator has increased to 65%, which is a four year high.

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41 Responses to “Latest poll”

  1. Peter (1,671 comments) says:

    ABC BBQ just exploded.

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  2. Pete George (23,344 comments) says:

    I wonder if Patrick Gower will be on news tonight saying the game changer has been cancelled due to lack of spectators.

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  3. stigie (1,004 comments) says:

    Its pretty damn sad for the left.

    Who do they turn to….?

    Where do they go for shelter….?

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  4. Neil (572 comments) says:

    Nothing strange about the poll result. However I think it overpolls Labour/Greens. People are pretty dismissive of the Left.However remember people of the right – Don’t get too cocky. Do the work, knock on doors and take nothing for granted.Remember there’s only one poll that counts.

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  5. flash2846 (228 comments) says:

    Seriously, how can anyone possibly think this government is not the best choice and how can they justify saying the country is moving in the wrong direction. They are so brainwashed they cannot be cured.

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  6. Peter (1,671 comments) says:

    They’ll be blaming Gower for this poll result over at The Stranded.

    That organ has the highest number of one handed typists I’ve ever encountered, outside the Mayors office…..

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  7. Cunningham (829 comments) says:

    Ouch, just over 30%! Hard to see it getting any better as it doesn’t fully take into account the latest fuckups he has made. Surely if they slip below 30% his days are numbered? Mind you with the new rules it’s hard to see how it could happen until after the election.

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  8. bringbackdemocracy (416 comments) says:

    The election is shaping up as a great fight, with National vs Labour as the main event and Conservatives vs Greens on the under card.

    http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/top-stories/21864701/conservative-party-spoof-gets-overwhelming-response/

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  9. trout (921 comments) says:

    The problem as I see it is that some liberal National supporters will read this as a shoo-in and consider giving the Greens their vote in misguided support for more emphasis on environmental issues when times are good. (Forgetting of course the Marxist agenda). I know that the ‘blue-green’ strategy floated by the Nats a few years ago was unsuccessful but there is a need now for National to develop something similar and front foot environmental strategies to hold those voters. (all power to Nick Smith for busting his gut lately and getting good publicity for conservation issues.)

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  10. Nick R (500 comments) says:

    Interesting part is that Labour is actually up very slightly. It’s the Greens & Winston that lost support. That said, the poll was taken before Cunliffe’s trust issues went toxic so it could actually get worse for the left.

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  11. Nigel Kearney (919 comments) says:

    People have short memories. For many swing voters, their choice will be decided by the last thing they remember seeing in the news before they go to the polling booth, and that certainly won’t be any of the stuff that has happened in the last couple of weeks.

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  12. RRM (9,666 comments) says:

    Don’t overestimate the effect of the Cunliffe trusts.

    A lot of the electorate on learning Cunliffe had a trust to keep his donors secret would give you a blank look, maybe followed by “so…? “

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  13. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Where is the useless veteran Mallard lately? One would think Phil Goff and Trevor Mallard must be laughing like crazy waiting for Silent T to make another mistake.

    In the background, Grant Robertson, DPF’s mate, is sharpening the dagger.

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  14. thor42 (971 comments) says:

    A promising poll but that’s all. Disappointing not to see Labour plummeting into the 20s.
    Good to see the Greens take a bit of a hit.

    It is amazing that *40%* of those polled think that a clusterf**k (Labour and Greens) should run the country.
    Just amazing…….

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  15. iMP (2,345 comments) says:

    Gee, interesting to note the biggest lifters in polls were Maori and Conservative.

    Greens down 1.5 oh dear. how sad.

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  16. Kimbo (744 comments) says:

    Seriously, how can anyone possibly think this government is not the best choice and how can they justify saying the country is moving in the wrong direction. They are so brainwashed they cannot be cured.

    The Prosecution subpoenas ross69 and Psycho Milt to appear!

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  17. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    some liberal National supporters will read this as a shoo-in and consider giving the Greens their vote

    I very much doubt that.

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  18. Elaycee (4,332 comments) says:

    So where is the perennial dropkick ‘Sir Cullen’s Sidekick” who boldly stated this latest Roy Morgan poll would see a massive swing to the left?

    Perhaps he’s off somewhere looking for a new pair of eyes for his sock puppet. :D

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  19. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    He’s polishing up his satire.

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  20. Daniel (189 comments) says:

    National/Act/Conservatives = 52%

    Looks good!

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  21. peterwn (3,215 comments) says:

    Neil, Trout et al. Too right! Nothing can be taken for granted. Matt McCarten is in a position to mobilise extra resources for Labour / Left. Many people have some concern for the environment and National needs to continue and support Nick Smith’s work in this regard. Arguably the Greens are dishonest by dressing themselves up as an environmental party when in reality they are an ultra left wing party with no idea how nations run (a few exceptions like North Korea).

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  22. Kimbo (744 comments) says:

    So where is the perennial dropkick ‘Sir Cullen’s Sidekick” who boldly stated this latest Roy Morgan poll would see a massive swing to the left?

    Irony: a quality lacking in the New Zealand national make-up. God took it away from them, to even up the score after endowing them liberally with pragmatism, charity, and a great rugby team.

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  23. Roflcopter (446 comments) says:

    Hey Elaycee, you do realise that Sidekick is a satire account, right?

    Anyways… good to see NZ’ers waking up to Noddy Norman and Taniwha Turei!

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  24. TMC (74 comments) says:

    I think someone mentioned this already somewhere but I’ve only just realised what Labour’s new logo/motto button thingy says. It’s difficult to read when small, impossible next to someone’s name on twitter.

    So it’s “I’m in Labour.” Really? That’s awful yet so funny it must be a mistake. Do they need to check whether or not their designer or creative isn’t actually a member of National and using the agency’s premises for meetings etc etc? :)

    Does the logo/motto help or hurt their polling with midwifes and pregnant ladies?

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  25. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (839 comments) says:

    Do not count your chickens yet right wing rich pricks!! This poll is in line with what we expected. Labour is up. Greens steady around 10% – 11% range. NZ First close on 4.5% and on election night will get 6% for sure.

    National won’t get anywhere near 48.5% on election night. So we are very optimistic. Cunliffe will be buoyed by this poll. Worries for John Key I think. Collins’ Milkgate scandal will make further dents in National next time.

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  26. stigie (1,004 comments) says:

    You are a brilliant commentator SCS, one of the best around !!

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  27. Than (440 comments) says:

    For many swing voters, their choice will be decided by the last thing they remember seeing in the news before they go to the polling booth, and that certainly won’t be any of the stuff that has happened in the last couple of weeks.

    While I agree voters have a very short memory for events, perceptions are more long-lasting. If people develop the idea that Cunliffe is tricky and deceptive that vague perception will far outlast the memory of the events that inspired it. Cunliffe’s been caught out half a dozen times being generous with the truth, so he may well have already given his opponents enough ammunition to make the “tricky” label stick.

    Colin Craig is another politican who suffers because of the mainstream perception of him – he will be forever tagged as “nutty” in the average voters mind. Comments like “I could choose to be gay” already meant most people considered him a little odd, and the chem-trail/moon-landing comments carved that perception in stone.

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  28. Chris R (65 comments) says:

    Labour operates like Cape Canaveral….in reverse!

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  29. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,834 comments) says:

    All the free publicity generated by a defamation action appears to have benefited Mr Craig.

    He launched a spoof fund raiser, taking the piss out of sanctimonious Norman. People took it for real and poured in $50k in 24 hours. You that’s funny? Wait till you hear Norman raised lousy two grand in his first day.

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  30. lolitasbrother (589 comments) says:

    I wonder why people think NZ First would align with Labour/ Green.
    I am a member of NZ First just to get the pamphlets and pictures of Winston to post on the office wall.

    What ever you think about Peters, he is not insane.
    There are no strong signs from the i-predict market.
    but NZ First to be in Parliament = 75%
    It would be insane for Winston to join a Labour/ Green coalition, he will not.

    I note in Farrar’s prediction for 2014 , he predicts Colin Craig Mp in 2014.
    This means possibly a seat of retiring Nat Mp.
    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/my-2014-predictions-ck-150526

    Its going to be a clean up

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  31. Pete George (23,344 comments) says:

    The individual issues that have dogged Cunliffe this week – there was yet another today with the power graph gaffe, won’t be remembered by many. But the accumulating perception of incompetence will permeate and grow.

    And the biggest damage to Cunliffe is that 99% of journalists now think he is a train wreck. Unless he can make a dramatic improvement that will make his campaign a real head wind.

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  32. Pete George (23,344 comments) says:

    I note in Farrar’s prediction for 2014 , he predicts Colin Craig Mp in 2014.
    This means possibly a seat of retiring Nat Mp.

    Craig has been cut out of Upper Harbour. His hopes have been dashed in East Coast Bays by McCully. It’s looking increasingly like he won’t get an electorate given to him on a National plate.

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  33. kiwi in america (2,477 comments) says:

    The left have clung to the Roy Morgan poll like a talisman, lauding it and dismissing other mainstream polls as distorted in favour of the right. With this poll showing Labour flirting with a sub 30% figure and the centre right able to clearly govern, it will do nothing but further destabilize Cunliffe’s leadership.

    With the new Constitution rules ruling out a quick and relatively bloodless removal in favour of Jones, perhaps there is credence to the narrative that Whaleoil alleges that Labour people are revealing to him via his tipline; that the ABCs are deliberately putting sand in the gears to ensure a leadership removing defeat occurs.

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  34. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    It’s looking increasingly like he won’t get an electorate given to him on a National plate.

    They gave Prebble Wellington Central a few days before the election.
    And that’s not to say that the voters of ECB or wherever Craig stands won’t decide for themselves that it’s a good idea to split their votes, just like the good voters of Epsom did for Rodney Hide.

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  35. RF (1,345 comments) says:

    SCS. I get it now. You are my love child that was dropped on his head just after birth. All is forgiven son, come home to daddy and I will pay your medical bills.

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  36. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (839 comments) says:

    I am emotionally choking with the all the love shown here…..Will resurface soon with some revelations as why National is going to drop in the polls like a lead ball put inside a paper bag…..

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  37. lolitasbrother (589 comments) says:

    RF above . I wouldn’t pay his medical bills if I were you , he SCS getting worser and worser

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  38. stigie (1,004 comments) says:

    You are a closet righty there SCS, just wanting to bust out of your padded cell and say get fucked Liarbour !!~

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  39. RF (1,345 comments) says:

    He was the fruit of my loins resulting from a drunken one night stand with Helen. Not his fault as I can see why he is torn between evil and salvation. Hint. I am salvation.

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  40. sealegs (3 comments) says:

    I am thinking about how great National are doing. 3 weeks ago I was sitting in a plane seat behind Nick Smith after being at sea for a month, I had not heard the news at all during that time and I was on my way home. I had been losing sleep over the possibility of having a Labour/green Government. He sat in his seat and immediatly started talking to the person seated beside him, the conversation lasted the entire flight He consantly asked questions of his seat mate about his work (polytecnic tudor) and how things could be improved. Suffice it to say I walked off that flight knowing this country is in good hands and have slept very well since

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  41. Keeping Stock (10,180 comments) says:

    The best news of all on this poll is the party sitting on 4.5%. Translate that to an election, and not only would Peters be history, but National would get around half of the wasted vote; a win-win by anyone’s standards :D

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