Opposition Leader in the Preferred PM poll

March 31st, 2014 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

oppldr

 

Most Opposition Leaders go up in the Preferred PM after they get elected. Goff and Shearer did. Cunliffe has only declined since he was elected. The opposition his poll ratings seem most similar to are Jim McLay.

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49 Responses to “Opposition Leader in the Preferred PM poll”

  1. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    A good attempt at spin but a bad fail. You ignore the fact that Helen Clark once polled at 2% and was below 10% for a long time. Indeed, if your graphic is correct, she was polling at less than 10% for at least three years.

    Has Cunliffe polled at 2%, and how long has he been in the job?

    [DPF: You overlook Clark went on to lose in 1996. Also the environment was different. The opposition Pref PM vote back then was split with Mike Moore, Jim Anderton and Winston Peters. There are no rivals for Cunliffe as Preferred PM. Just himself]

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  2. Tautaioleua (324 comments) says:

    It’s a great day for the ABC club then? this calls for its resurrection, surely?

    :-)

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  3. Zebulon (125 comments) says:

    One word: Goff. They don’t have anyone else.

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  4. KiwiGreg (3,278 comments) says:

    I’m thinking in rossworld the headline should read “Cunliffe more popular than Clark”

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  5. tas (655 comments) says:

    I did not know that Bolger was below 20% in the preferred PM stakes when he got elected. That’s surprising.

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  6. Elaycee (4,425 comments) says:

    Sheesh, ross69…. Either business is slow on Waiheke these days, or you’ve become a fully paid flunkie for the left. :roll:

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  7. RRM (10,099 comments) says:

    In RRM world the headline would be THIRD RUNNER DROPS RELAY BATON… :-)

    I also like how Donnie Brash made two massive upward spikes.. and then blew them both….

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  8. thedavincimode (6,890 comments) says:

    Has Cunliffe polled at 2%

    Give him a chance ross69. He’s barely started.

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  9. thedavincimode (6,890 comments) says:

    Donnie Brash made two massive upward spikes.. and then blew them both

    I think I know what you are trying to say RRM, but you might like to re-phrase that.

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  10. dime (10,213 comments) says:

    Dime almost spat out his cornflakes this morning.. Cunliffe responding to the low rating – it will go up once people get to know me HAHAHAHAHAAHAHA

    yeah, lets go with that. chump.

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  11. Pete George (23,798 comments) says:

    “Cunliffe more popular than Clark…”…when she lost.

    Does anyone know if Clarks PPM rating shot up before the 1996 election, if so how long before?

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  12. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    [DPF: You overlook Clark went on to lose in 1996. Also the environment was different. The opposition Pref PM vote back then was split with Mike Moore, Jim Anderton and Winston Peters. There are no rivals for Cunliffe as Preferred PM. Just himself]

    But she’d been in the job 3 years by then. Cunliffe hasn’t even had a year!

    Oh and Winston is still in Parliament!

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  13. dime (10,213 comments) says:

    “But she’d been in the job 3 years by then. Cunliffe hasn’t even had a year!”

    exactly! lets give him at least another 3 years! maybe 4!

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  14. Pete George (23,798 comments) says:

    But she’d been in the job 3 years by then. Cunliffe hasn’t even had a year!

    So if Cunliffe is targeting a win in 2017 or 2020 he should hang in there.

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  15. lolitasbrother (774 comments) says:

    this is code MrCartney Matt to Cunliffe David here,
    you are collapsing in the votes,
    please pop into my office next door for a chat,

    this is an emergency this Farrar is putting out graphs in our face

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  16. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    So if Cunliffe is targeting a win in 2017 or 2020 he should hang in there.

    Or, since Helen’s polling was abysmal, she should have quit before becoming PM? But that would have seen us denied nine great years. :)

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  17. dirty harry (527 comments) says:

    How embarrassing for silent T.

    How embarrassing for Liarbor.

    The poofters party…the gift that keeps on giving…

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  18. Elaycee (4,425 comments) says:

    But that would have seen us denied nine great years

    Yup. And to think some folk get less than that for murder…

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  19. Cunningham (846 comments) says:

    ross69 Cunliffe is increasingly being seen as untrustworthy (for good cause). You can’t reverse that once it’s set in. Plus he has ther baggage that goes with those ‘9 great years’. BTW how was our outlook after those ‘9 great years’? Oh that’s right never ending deficits and an export sector in recession since 2005 and huge increases in the cost of power, food etc. I would hate to see what you think are bad years!

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  20. Mark (1,502 comments) says:

    How can this be surprising even to the most diehard Labour supporter. Adding salt to the festering sore is Labour’s leadership selection process. As bad as Cunliffe is, short of him falling on his sword getting rid of him is a prolonged and messy process. Even if he resigned the resulting leadership selection debarcle can ony be damaging to Labour.

    Three more years :D

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  21. David Garrett (7,699 comments) says:

    I think you are all being very nasty to David (as Mickey likes to call him) Give him a chance! He needs at least this election and the next to prove himself…How can a harvard grad and former merchant banker NOT appeal hugely to “Waitakere Man”?

    I know it is a vain hope, but wouldnt it be interesting if someone did a poll where the sample was asked a couple of questions to identify themselves as part of the “Rainbow wing” of Labour, or the long forgotten ordinary bloke tradesman who used to vote Labour almost as a autonomic response…then ask them “who in Labour would be your most preferred PM?”

    Actually Labour may already have done just that…One thing you can guarantee is that of those 800,000 “didnt votes” Labour is obsessed with, the majority are NOT waiting for a leader rainbow enough for them to vote for

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  22. lolitasbrother (774 comments) says:

    its going to be a good solid progress of New Zealand from 2014 to 2017.
    Many people are prepared. I am.
    We look forward to strength New Zealand

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  23. Mrs Trellis (34 comments) says:

    The Untied Party……I like it :)

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  24. David Garrett (7,699 comments) says:

    Re polls done by the parties themselves…I remember Bob Clarkson – former Tauranga MP – telling me at an election meeting in 2008 that the Nats had done a poll to try and identify how solid the support for Winston was…as Bob told it, the sample – all people who had voted for Winston – were told to imagine he had been convicted of paedophilia…a significant majority (I cant now remember the exact number) apparently said they would still support him. I found that hugely shocking…if true, it just shows how puerile the electorate as a whole is…Or perhaps that was just Tauranga…let’s hope so…

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  25. emmess (1,398 comments) says:

    Or, since Helen’s polling was abysmal, she should have quit before becoming PM?

    Yes

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  26. MT_Tinman (3,315 comments) says:

    David Garrett (5,007 comments) says:
    March 31st, 2014 at 2:35 pm
    Or perhaps that was just Tauranga…let’s hope so…

    No, it’s not.

    I remember discussing politics at a bowling club before the 2005 election.

    For months most agreed Dyson’s (the local MP) and Clarkula’s very poor performance made them unsuited to represent the members but to a man/woman after the election the Labour-centric group admitted reverting to tribal norms and voting commynist (communist without the intestinal fortitude) simply because this is what they had always done.

    Convinced me that you should earn the right to vote by passing a simple test – universal suffrage is a crock!

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  27. David Garrett (7,699 comments) says:

    MT: I actually agree that universal suffrage is wrong, and agree with those who say it should be a privilege earned by those who can demonstrate enough nous to have some say in how the country is run…

    I well remember my father – a staunch Social Creditor – coming home from voting and being very disturbed that one of our neighbours had yelled out to another in the polling booth “Who’s the Labour man Percy?” My father was lamenting that that women shouldn’t have the same say as him, and I agree…but don’t hold your breath for any company to promote “suffrage by test”…. (forget the Socred jokes, it never made much sense to me either…but at least my father could have answered most of the questions put to the Fat Kraut the other day…)

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  28. mikenmild (12,351 comments) says:

    I’d be happy to let anyone vote before the age of 18 subject to passing a basic civics test, but would keep universal suffrage from 18.

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  29. ROJ (125 comments) says:

    told to imagine … ?

    Give anyone an extreme scenario like that, and it immediately gets discounted (unimaginable) against known reality or solid belief systems. It probably wouldn’t even get a pass mark at first year psychology.

    Believing that, probably gives far more insight into Builder Bob’s grip on reality

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  30. David Garrett (7,699 comments) says:

    Mikey: At the risk of straying too far off topic, I think recent new knowledge about the brain suggests we should be lifting the age before you can do all sorts of things, not just driving. The consensus now seems to be that the brain does not fully develop before 25….so our forefathers obviously had something when they made the “age of majority” 21….I would support a reversion to that….trouble is it would make an awful big hole in the Green vote I suspect…” not a socialist at 18 you have no heart; still a socialist at 21 you have no brain” and all that…

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  31. David Garrett (7,699 comments) says:

    ROJ: You may well be right; I only have Bob’s word for this supposed poll….but he had enough grip on reality to become a self made multi-millionaire….most of those have a reasonable sort of grip I would have thought…

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  32. Colville (2,318 comments) says:

    The thought did scamper thru my lil brain this morning when reading the Cun*liffe had dropped into single figues *I wonder how low English got before scoring 21% (?) in the election* …. the graphic seems to tell me that Bill was at least twice as popular as Cun*liffe.

    Will DC lead the Mighty Labour Party of New Zealand to a single figure election result?

    and yes please please let him still be Leader for 2017 !

    Edit. I wonder if it is too early for Key to be making room above his mantle for a 4th plaque mounted stuffed head from a Labour Party leader. ??

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  33. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    ross69: Your examples are as pathetic and distorted as one would expect from a left-wing loser, living the life of Riley at the expense of someone else. Your current leader is a charlatan, a proven fraudster (falsified CV), and a rainbow room greaser. There is no room in politics for a piece refuse such as this vermin-ridden mongrel.

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  34. mikenmild (12,351 comments) says:

    igm
    The falsified cv claim has been well and truly debunked. Just saying – I don’t particularly like the man.

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  35. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (899 comments) says:

    Matt McCarten says, this is MMP election, not US style presidential election. Cunliffe may be 2% popular. but the combination of Cunliffe, Norman, Peters, Hone, Dotcom is enough to defeat Key. Game over bros.

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  36. kiwi in america (2,314 comments) says:

    Mikenmild
    Cunliffe was guilty of numerous CV embellishments that were designed to create an inflated impression of his credentials. None of them have been debunked although he has corrected a number of them.

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  37. Dave_1924 (121 comments) says:

    If Cunliffe hadn’t gerrymander the Leader Election process for the Labour Party he would be absolute dog tucker by now…. The Left of the Labour party have their man – I hope that suffer for it…

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  38. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (899 comments) says:

    lolitasbrother (311 comments) says:
    March 31st, 2014 at 2:22 pm

    its going to be a good solid progress of New Zealand from 2014 to 2017.
    Many people are prepared. I am.
    We look forward to strength New Zealand

    Thanks bro. I will let Cunliffe know. He will be chuffed.

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  39. mikenmild (12,351 comments) says:

    kia
    Thanks for that. I just get a bit tired of the Harvard accusation, I suppose.

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  40. thedavincimode (6,890 comments) says:

    milky

    OT??? :(

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  41. mikenmild (12,351 comments) says:

    OT? I don’t understand.

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  42. griffith (1,111 comments) says:

    Time and a half for working late miky

    gliding on…….

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  43. mikenmild (12,351 comments) says:

    Sure, I get it now, silly me.

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  44. srylands (437 comments) says:

    “Matt McCarten says, this is MMP election, not US style presidential election. Cunliffe may be 2% popular. but the combination of Cunliffe, Norman, Peters, Hone, Dotcom is enough to defeat Key. Game over bros.”

    Of course it is possible for National to get 49% of the vote and not be able to form a government – If there is no ACT, no United Future, and no Maori Party (or they decide to go with Labour). We could have instead a Labour/Green/Mana/New Zealand First/Maori Party/Internet Party government.

    Putting aside the stability of such a coalition you have to wonder what the public would make of an electoral system that might one day deliver a Prime Minister representing a Party with 31% of the vote and a Leader of the Opposition from a Party with 49% of the vote.

    Such a scenario may not happen in 2014, but it will some day. In response to the latest polls it is this scenario that The Standard is crowing about as being overlooked by the MSM and the consensus view that National will be returned.

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  45. emmess (1,398 comments) says:

    Slightly off topic

    But this TVNZ poll on the issues seems like bullshit

    Forty percent put education at the top, 37% health, 30% jobs, 27% child poverty and 23% wages.
    All the left’s favourite talking points (or at least historically have been)

    http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/three-quarters-kiwis-against-changing-flag-poll-5850358

    Where as any other poll you would expect the economy to top the list

    As it does in this poll with a far wider range of issues and it does so by a long shot
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/lightbox/national/politics/9756622?KeepThis=true&TB_iframe=true&height=500&width=680

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  46. kiwi in america (2,314 comments) says:

    Srylands
    What you may be forgetting is the wasted vote. Any party getting under 5% but with no electorate MP, it’s vote is then deducted off the total number of votes cast and the proportionality, for the purposes of calculating the overall number of seats in Parlimanet a party is entitled to from the party vote, is deduced from the total votes net of the wasted votes. Thus if a single party gets 47% it is about the level that brings them close to being able to form a governing coalition. When you add in minor support parties (for instance the Progressives in 2005 which helped Labour squeak over the line – or ACT and United that have done the same for National in 2008 and 2011), 47% seems to be enough to form a government.

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  47. kiwi in america (2,314 comments) says:

    mikenmild
    Cunliffe’s Harvard Kennedy School of Government versus Business School I believe could be put into the category of a genuine mistake or sloppiness and lack of precision. Cunliffe’s wider problem was that this lack of distinction or sloppiness (i.e. references to an MBA from the Business School vs the MPA from the Kennedy School) was allowed to be published in various media without correction and it led to an impression of a more impressive business oriented CV than was the case. For a man who has dreamed and schemed to be PM, he must’ve known that eventually his CV would come under very close scrutiny so it behooved him to make an effort to tidy it up. In this, and various other well reported incidences, he did not do until pinged for it.

    The silly thing is that an MPA from the Kennedy School of Government is a very impressive credential and he ought to have left it at that but he was hell bent on trying to present himself as the true Labour ‘man of the people’ but one with enough business savvy to match John Key in the world of business. This careful crafting of image IMO was deliberate and so CV references regarding his business experience were burnished and exaggerated – the most egregious being his claims to have “helped with the formation of Fonterra” – a claim that was clearly an exaggeration based on the limited billable hours he spent on this at Boston Consulting for one of the eventually minor players in this matter.

    We are seeing played out in real time the results of his sloppiness. It is manifest in his numerous pratfalls as leader which in turn reflect badly on his ability to present himself as a credible PM replacement for John Key. His and Labour’s current poor polling come as no surprise.

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  48. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Cunliffe: Driven by envy, unionists, weirdos, deviants, losers and bludgers, plus his fairytale qualifications . . . what an example of a Labourite.

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  49. Shazzadude (531 comments) says:

    “I did not know that Bolger was below 20% in the preferred PM stakes when he got elected. That’s surprising.”

    The then-National MP for Tauranga, Winston Peters also featured as an option for preferred PM around that time, and led the preferred PM poll at one point.

    What surprised me is that it’s not uncommon for opposition leaders to dip below 10%.

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