Mr Cunliffe the poll trend doesn’t lie

March 18th, 2014 at 3:33 pm by Jadis

*Jadis post as DPF collecting info for a travel blog piece.

Audrey Young has a fascinating opinion piece today that calls out ’s spin on today’s demoralising Herald- for – that precarious drop into the 20s.

It was disappointing to hear David Cunliffe suggesting today’s Herald DigiPoll survey putting Labour at 29.5 per cent is off the mark.

On the one hand he said he accepted that Labour’s polling has suffered from him using a trust for donations to his leadership campaign.

The next thing he is touting his party’s own internal polling which apparently puts Labour at 34 per cent.

The fact is that if Labour’s own polling is 34 per cent, it is at odds not just with DigiPoll, but with two other recent : Roy Morgan on March 6 which had Labour at 30.5 per cent and the Ipsos Fairfax poll a month ago which had Labour at 31.8 per cent.

The DigiPoll result of 29.5 is not much lower in reality but falling into the 20s from 30 is like falling into a canyon and is devastating for any party with designs on Government.

I am wondering if Cunliffe, his closest advisors and others have only been presenting some of the truth of Labour’s predicament to caucus.  You see that ’34 per cent’ that Cunliffe talks about is entirely possible if we add in the ‘prompted’ voters.  A prompted result is where a voter who says they are undecided is asked who they are most likely to vote for.

Today’s report on the Herald-Digipoll result very clearly states that the 29.5 per cent result is of “decided voters only”.  The decideds are what matter at this point of the cycle and Cunliffe knows that.  If I were in his caucus I’d be asking to see the decided or unprompted numbers.

If I was in Labour’s caucus I’d also be asking why Labour is becoming less attractive to women and Aucklanders.  Two groups that are pivotal to the quest for the undecided vote.  If you aren’t picking up decided voters from those groups now then you are very unlikely to pick up votes from those groups closer to the election.

A 29.5% result is a big deal.  One public poll in the 20s sends the caucus and party activists into a bit of meltdown.  As Whaleoil points out electorate MPs run back to their seats, and activists only focus on MPs or candidates they think can win a seat. A 29.5% result also means that a 25% result is not that far away… and that is frightening.  A 29.5% result means that Matt ‘Game Changer’ McCarten hasn’t worked his magic (the way Bomber talked him up it sounded like we’d see a result day 2).

In all this National also has to be a bit careful.  National needs to retain women and Auckland voters and ride very high in the polls due to a lack of support partners.  National can chortle a bit and I am sure Bill English Is thinking “so much nice being this side of the result’ but National cannot get complacent.  It needs to defend its fine batting total and bowl Labour out.

Labour can get away with some low polling if the also shoot up (as they have) so that the Left vote is still high or near to National’s vote.  If they can do that then it is still a close run race.  A true decimation is less likely on the Left as Labour has (and I think it will continue to) fragment into distinct parties or collections of interests.  We are seeing a re-organisation of the Left.  Yes, Labour could drop into the mid 20s but the and possibly Mana will shoot back up.

The Right needs to continue to look at the total Left vote vs the National (plus two seats) scenario.  Right and Left need to run two very different strategies.

Tags: , , , , ,

62 Responses to “Mr Cunliffe the poll trend doesn’t lie”

  1. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    This “Tojo” Cunliffe clown has had near lead interview time on Newstalkzb all day, is this not political bias by a major media outlet!
    To make matters worse, the vain bastard thinks he is going to win . . . sounds like Mike Moore years ago when he lost to Bolger and made a victory speech!

    Vote: Thumb up 16 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. Jim Rose (35 comments) says:

    IPredict has the chances of a Nat PM after the election at 73%, up from 51% last year, and about 60% 6 weeks ago.

    Winston benefits from a weak Labour because a good 2% of his vote would be Labour voters going elsewhere when their guy has no chance. Dunn benefited from this tactical voting in 2002.

    Vote: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. stigie (1,184 comments) says:

    The heads are all down in Labour after these last few polls, its looking very easy for the Nat at the moment and are likely to romp in at the end of the year, but they will have to not be complacent here on in…. as Helen and Liarbour did in their last term !!

    Vote: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. alloytoo (543 comments) says:

    The thing is, as Labour drops into the twenties, the soon to be unemployed are going eye the greens votes as not only rightfully theirs, but also as easier pickings than National.

    Vote: Thumb up 16 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. thor42 (971 comments) says:

    A good poll for the Nats but still no room for complacency.

    Annoying to see the Greens still getting lots of support. They and their stupid policies (and discredited “global warming” BS) need to be attacked mercilessly.

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. Rich Prick (1,705 comments) says:

    Cunliffe is just too hard to like, his caucus has probably realised he would be insufferable as PM and look as though they have given up. I think even the Greens realise they would be in for a rough time with David “I’m in charge ’round here” Cunliffe. And on current polling Winston looks set to collect a pension. You wonder why they would bother?

    Vote: Thumb up 16 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. hmmokrightitis (1,590 comments) says:

    And still nothing at the substranded, which is music to my eyes. Poor Mickey must be distraught, thinking about the role he played in dragging that bunch of muppets down below the big 3-0 mark.

    Yes, I looked at the stranded, My eyes, it burns my eyes, but for a good cause. Mickey, conveyancing, its the way of the future ;)

    But also agree, National, keep your eye on the prize. Humble, focused, and let the left eat itself with its continued stupidity of ‘our polling is different’, ‘National is only for the rich’ – whilst the rest of the country look at labour and the left in disarray and think yup, weve got it good, lets keep backing blue.

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. Manolo (13,774 comments) says:

    Let the arrogant socialist Silent T believe his own lies and untruths! The more, the merrier.

    Vote: Thumb up 16 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. kaykaybee (152 comments) says:

    Ever since Cunliffe made his spitting, misogynistic attack on Collins “if she was the only woman alive the species would die out” comment I think women think they have the measure of this man.

    Off the cuff comments like this come from the core of someone, and in my opinion reveal how he feels about women – even if it is simply those who cross or annoy him.

    Combine this with his false working class empathy, his arrogance, forced humour and preachiness and you have the very antithesis of the qualities a woman looks for in a man. Compare him with approachable, boy made good John Key – the bloke who loves his wife, gives her cheek and jokes about his daughter’s foodie nudie art and which one are we going to vote for?

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 42 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. Ed Snack (1,872 comments) says:

    I wonder what the support for labour in Central Wellington is, still up around 50-60% ?

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. iMP (2,385 comments) says:

    “…DPF collecting info for a travel blog piece.” Best euphemism I’ve heard all year.

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. Huevon (222 comments) says:

    National cannot be complacent. The Left is still polling 40+ %

    I believe that Labour’s disarray is temporary. The Left is not in decline. Look at the Leftist constituency:
    – people dependent on welfare (20% – 30% of the national population give or take)
    – a generation of kids indoctrinated into Leftism by kumbaya-singing, gaia-worshipping, ladidah teachers (10%??)
    – old school socialists/trade unionists (10%?)
    – gays/rad fems/identity fringe groups (1% but get sympathy from wider public/very loud)

    One just has to look at Obama to see what effect the right kind of figure can have on mobilising the Left. Could someone like that emerge? The crisis in Labour may just motivate an unknown quantity to make a move.

    The price of freedom (from Leftism) is eternal vigilance.

    Vote: Thumb up 17 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. greenjacket (465 comments) says:

    Good God – I have just had a look at The Standard.
    .
    Apparently “John Key’s National government only serves the privileged elite.” John Key is “favouring only the favoured few”, “John Key’s National doesn’t give a toss if the average kiwi has no money”, he is venal, feeding poison, and “pure evil”. And John Key has “weakened the economy” with something called “Neoliberalism”.
    .
    I think a lot of Labour-Green supporters are completely unhinged.

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 40 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. hmmokrightitis (1,590 comments) says:

    greenjacket, exactly. They are STILL waiting for the ‘average kiwi bloke and blokette’ to wake up from their dazed and delusional state, and vote red.

    They dont seem to realise that every single indicator you could care to mention abut the economy (“its about the economy stupid”) and what really matters to voters are heading and pointing in the right direction. They are waiting for the king hit that will never come.

    It really is delusional, but quite sweet :)

    Vote: Thumb up 19 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    Referring to questions around his use of a trust to receive donations to support his leadership campaign last year, Mr Cunliffe said: “We expected to take a hit, we did and now we’re moving on”.

    So I suggest you guys also move on from this poll. As Matt McCarten would say, polling in high twenties is always better than polling in low thirties….get the drift? Move on….

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 12 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. griffith (1,111 comments) says:

    From my sig other
    female left wing voter working in eduction sector auckland the demographic labour needs to retain. the educated middle class.

    Cunliffle is a smarmy bastard and I could never vote for such a weasel.

    Labour please keep cunny as the voters hate him

    Vote: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. pcplod (29 comments) says:

    Mr Cunliffe – You are DELUSIONAL

    Vote: Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. questions (207 comments) says:

    Thanks Jase!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 6 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. David Garrett (7,278 comments) says:

    This decline in Labour support among women is very interesting…Of course I am biased and perhaps see Law n Order policies as being more significant in the wider scheme of things than they are…But I am informed that “three strikes” has more support among women in ACT focus groups than men..which is a completely unexpected result. Perhaps women are smart enough to see that it is both an effective and entirely fair policy/law?

    Labour is of course opposed to 3S and says they will repeal it…I just can’t see how that can do them any good electorally, especially as the policy is working exactly as intended, and hitting just the people we said it would…

    Vote: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  20. mandk (993 comments) says:

    @ greenjacket,
    Leave them to their delusions.
    Who is going to vote for a bunch of sulking, bile-spitting, class warriors?

    Vote: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  21. Simon (724 comments) says:

    $2.5 million do up & $500k pa plus family income is middle of the road. The man is just a fuckwit.

    Vote: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  22. lolitasbrother (695 comments) says:

    the more Cunliffe deludes himself the more the people see him as delusional.
    Its worse than that .
    The poll flight to Green can not be sustained at a National election.
    Very few New Zealanders will not go near an Australian communist
    We should praise Chris Trotter for his early recognition that the elections will be a clean up;
    in favour of NZ Nat Government 2014..

    See here
    http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.co.nz/2014/03/all-over-bar-counting.html

    The dreamy meanderings now from MSM about NZ Fist and Green are absurd.
    Cunliffe is inviting NZ First towards him because he is desperate.
    Labour is collapsing , this man Cunliffe is presiding over oblivion,
    send him flowers people

    Vote: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  23. Changeiscoming (189 comments) says:

    When they are below 20 I will be happy.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  24. nasska (11,510 comments) says:

    ….”When they are below 20 I will be happy.”….

    Careful what you wish for. Many of the votes Labour sheds will go to the Greens & they’re even loopier.

    Vote: Thumb up 17 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  25. dime (9,972 comments) says:

    The thing that pisses me off about labour is they are so unappealing the greens poll over 10.

    The fuckers should be under 5

    Vote: Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  26. Paulus (2,627 comments) says:

    The Labour women are going to the Greens – there they will still be middle class, University educated, latte/Chardonnay drinking socialists.
    Probably many are Teachers or similar.
    Chardonnay still tastes the same.

    Vote: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  27. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,903 comments) says:

    naska@5.20

    Yes. Careful what he/she wishes for or you might finish up with a Greens paradise like Tasmania, where 75% of the population derives its livelihood from the gummint sector (benefits, gummint departments, local gummint) and adult unemployment outside the capital city is over 30%.

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  28. griffith (1,111 comments) says:

    :lol:
    Shit even the local agw nut couldn’t vote greens . Red inside and more interested in Marxism than the environment since Ron Mcd died. Totally destroying the economy is not going to save the environment . Their farming policy’s are economic suicide for nz. Pushing us towards the third world will cause more environmental problems than it solves.

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  29. duggledog (1,557 comments) says:

    Labour

    Your problems are:

    – 3rd leader since Helen Clark was ousted
    – Economy
    – Helen’s disinclination to have any talent flourish while she was in power (siege mentality) leaving cupboard bare
    – National haven’t dismantled any of your unaffordable time bomb bribes (too many to list here) that you thought would trip the Nats up. In fact they have made many things work better for less
    – As someone said on GD today, people are waking up to the fact they are being bribed (again) with their own money, by you. They’ve had a tough few years and know what they can’t afford
    – Alliance with the Greens – too late to back track on that perception now, fatal
    – Attacking Key’s personal wealth and success – especially when your new Leader is already loaded and thinks he’s middle class
    – Royal visit shortly
    – Approaching NZD parity with AUD
    – Appointing a far left extremist as your Chief Of Staff
    – Your new rule meaning Cunliffe can’t be rolled

    Labour, if it weren’t for your diminishing roll of tribal voters who have no interest in politics or how their country is being run you really would cease to exist. You have to go hard left and stay out of power for at least two more terms, or you have to eat some rats and go to the right of National, in some critical areas.

    Re discover the working man and what’s important to him / her because National are The Warehouse and you are a high street shop

    Vote: Thumb up 18 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  30. gravedodger (1,566 comments) says:

    Sheesh Sir Cullens Sidekick, isa bin fishun and hadn’t caught up with your special optimism.
    Was a bit worried in fact.

    Good to see you still carrying the flag, go you good thing.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  31. Don the Kiwi (1,757 comments) says:

    David Garrett.
    4.45 pm.

    A possible reason why the 4S law is popular with women is because women are often the target of those offenders – rape and physical abuse.
    But our history of offending on parole makes the 4S law a no brainer.

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  32. Souvlaki (45 comments) says:

    I was going to make a comment along the lines of “kaykaybee” 4.13….but don’t think I could have put it so well ! Labour come across as bullying a woman who,like her or loathe her was doing her BEST for NZ in China ! Who in reality gives a rusty fuck who paid for her dinner ??? Only some weirdo….which is what most of Labour are !! Lets face it…if her husbands company DID receive favourable press in China … GREAT and ..so what !! They are selling NZ produce overseas and it is this money which generates the tax which these leeches ( labour) believe they have a ‘god given right to ‘ ! FFS

    Vote: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  33. edhunter (547 comments) says:

    Shudder I don’t know how you guys do it. I just spent 10 mins over at the standard & they’re worried very worried.
    But what I found the spookiest was that PhilUre almost comes across as a sane voice of reason:

    i think it is more the paucity of good/new policy-ideas to date from labour..
    (‘we’re not quite as bad as them’..doesn’t really cut it..eh..?..)
    ..that..and the prospect of having the likes of goff/mallard/king etc..(those who refuse to go..)
    ..again staring out/lecturing us from television screens..every day/nite..
    ..i mean..how appealing is that..?
    ..and of course..shane jones hasn’t really helped..eh..?..

    Vote: Thumb up 17 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  34. slijmbal (1,236 comments) says:

    As +ve as the polls currently are it’s possible National may be peaking a bit early. Elections have a tendency to move away from the incumbent as one gets closer to the actual election day. Complacency is a killer and 6 months is a long time in politics. This is also a driver for Labour to get better – one would almost prefer that they don’t screw up so early in the process.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  35. nasska (11,510 comments) says:

    ….”what I found the spookiest was that PhilUre almost comes across as a sane voice of reason”…..

    They’re toast! :)

    Vote: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  36. edhunter (547 comments) says:

    The other thing is that they keep harping on about the 800,000 missing votes who they “know” are all votes for Labour.
    If only the polls hadn’t shown that National were dead certs to win in 2011 the missing voters would’ve turned out to do their civic duty.
    Well here’s a thought, maybe because the polls did have the Nats so far in front a shit load of National voters didn’t turn out because shit it’s a lay down misere.

    Vote: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  37. thedavincimode (6,759 comments) says:

    They are waiting for the king hit that will never come.

    hmmokeydokey, they’ve already copped their king hit – when they made Viscount Cunners, home renovator of Marine Parade, Herne Bay, their Great Redeemer.

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  38. David Garrett (7,278 comments) says:

    Jesus…it’s actually scary reading the commenters over at the Stranded…I’m sure the left is way nuttier than it used to be…I was a leftie once, but even my 17 year old self would see the nuttiness in “John Key just benefits the privileged elite”…fuck, I wonder what they would make of a gummint led by Alan Gibbs!!

    Vote: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  39. duggledog (1,557 comments) says:

    Just heard Cunliffe on Labour’s own radio station, National Radio – they buried the poor poll story @ 5.52 pm of course – excusing his situation by saying, well John Key has had time to bed himself in and that the electorate is being wowed by a short term boost in the economy!

    Hilarious. Accept defeat graciously man! You’re making it worse!

    Vote: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  40. Ross12 (1,428 comments) says:

    Dime @ 5.23

    +10

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  41. Steve (North Shore) (4,562 comments) says:

    Nasska @ 5.47
    If Phool is making sense it shows the Standard of the rest (pun intended)
    Edit, Ed Hunter as well @ 5.40

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  42. thedavincimode (6,759 comments) says:

    duggledog

    Yes, I spotted the “short term economic boost” remark.

    In light of all the news we have had about the direction of the economy in the last wee while, including forecast growth, manufacturing growth, business confidence, employment intentions and the unemployment rate, I wonder whether this comment is the most stupid thing that cunners has said.

    The fact that he uttered this gross stupidity in the course of defending himself from suggestions that he is a complete and wholly unlikeable failure as liebour leader, worse even than goof and the fish man, simply compounds that stupidity. Moreover, Key did not ever have to “bed himself in”. He was an instant hit.

    That gives cunners three strikes in one sentence. I’m not sure that even goof or the fish man came close to that.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  43. alwyn (425 comments) says:

    Poor old David C doesn’t have a chance at being appealing to women.
    People, from birth are attracted to people who have symmetrical faces and bodies.
    Women LIKE symmetrical men more than unsymmetrical ones.

    http://www.psychologicalscience.org/index.php/publications/observer/2011/april-11/beauty-is-in-the-mind-of-the-beholder.html

    Have a look at a photo David C from front on and compare him with a photo of John K. Key may not be handsome but he has much more symmetrical looks. The explanation for the preference is that such symmetrical people are much less likely to have mutated genes and therefore are likely to produce healthier offspring.

    It isn’t his fault. Don’t pick on the poor guy for something he can’t help.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  44. duggledog (1,557 comments) says:

    David Garret

    I disagree; I think Law & Order is massively important and inextricably linked to the Economy. Lawlessness costs the country a fortune, as you know; the vast amounts of money we throw away on these clowns from drunk drivers to murderers is just eye popping. From extra cops, to cameras on motorways and all round the cities – all monitored, to lawyers to hospital staff like ED staff, plush prisons to appeals to IRD sleuths it goes on and on and on. Not to mention increased premiums from car insurance to house insurance for ordinary citizens who abide by the law

    For me, 3S is your / ACT’s legacy and as far as legacies go it’s a f***in beauty. Hoping Charter Schools will bear similar fruit. Labour will never actually repeal it, like most other things they say they will but won’t.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  45. duggledog (1,557 comments) says:

    National should use this as they go into September:

    A: Would you like to hear the truth?

    B: Would you like to hear what you want to hear?

    If A – vote National

    If B – vote Labour

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  46. dirty harry (489 comments) says:

    toast…liarbors toast. Will be interesting to see what they do after the election..the fat gay one may roll silent T or porn jones might be first up with a bbq. Whatever happens , there’s no denying liarbors ( and the strandards ) entertainment value.

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  47. davidp (3,581 comments) says:

    This probably means the end of unions and party members electing the leader. I expect they’ll dump the system after the election. Think of Cunliffe’s colleagues as referees for a normal job application. They have all worked with him and were all screaming “no, don’t do it”. But the unions and members decided to ignore this, deciding instead to go with Cunliffe on the basis of his hard-left CV. And we all know how reliable Cunliffe’s CV is.

    Also, did anyone else notice Cunliffe’s remark today that we “don’t want to be living in a country that has ghettos and gated communities”. Gated communities, FFS. He took a drubbing just a couple of weeks ago about his own expensive housing. Would I be correct in assuming that Cunliffe’s place has a motorised gate? Then a week ago he took another drubbing about his house hunting efforts on behalf of a very rich foreign resident. And I bet that has a motorised gate. And Norman, Peters, and a number of Labour MPs have been visiting Dotcom at his giant gated home. And Turei lives in a castle, which means she probably has a drawbridge and portcullis. And yet he STILL decides to bring real estate in to the argument. Why is Cunliffe so resistant to learning any sort of lesson?

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  48. Ross12 (1,428 comments) says:

    I’ve given up watching the TV news regular some years ago but decided to catch most it tonight. Hardly mentioned the poll but gave a big piece on TV1 to their lastest attempt on having a go at Collins. Good to see Collins walking away from the juvenile journalists.
    Is it any wonder the MSM is losing relevance.?

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  49. Rich Prick (1,705 comments) says:

    Yes Ross, I saw that too. Some juvenile harridan in desperate need of elocution lessons screeching at Collins reminded me why I avoid One “News” like the plague. Where do they find these kiddies?

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  50. Michael (909 comments) says:

    The other good news – ACT on 0.8%. Start of another good trend!

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  51. jims_whare (403 comments) says:

    Or even better davidp.

    After the election the caucus dump Cunliffe, he stands again and is elected by the unions and activists against the caucus express wishes – then you will see sparks fly……..

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  52. SPC (5,619 comments) says:

    Panic will only set in if the poll results show the amount below 30% to be greater than the margin of error. And even then only if a subsequent poll confirms it.

    This is however enough to influence some of those betting on the election result – including some MP’s whose bet is not on I predict but in their daily political life. They will be advised by the wisest people they know not to let anyone know that they have stopped breathing through their nose.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  53. Fisiani (1,039 comments) says:

    Every time the Labour poll drops the Left see it as a blip or rogue poll. I reckon that very soon the voters will realise that Labour CANNOT win. This is what happened to National in 2002. When voting Labour seems a wasted vote then the Labour vote can plummet. National hit 22% and there is no rule that says Labours record low poll in 2011 will remain the record low. The Cunliffe is loathed by 2/3 of his own caucus and by an increasing number of women, Aucklanders, Pacific Islanders and virtually every demographic. A humble Cunliffe would resign and give another leader 6 months to rebuild Labour but a humble Cunliffe does not exist. No one can or will challenge him till September 21st. Labour votes will go to National ,The Greens, NZF, The Conservatives, and even Mana.

    Vote: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  54. Chuck Bird (4,883 comments) says:

    “Don’t pick on the poor guy for something he can’t help.”

    Another thing most women are not attracted to are self centred arseholes. He can do something about that.

    His earlier comments about Collins on a desert inland will be remembered by some – especially if we jog their memories.

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  55. Johnboy (16,554 comments) says:

    As I said some time ago. Cunnliffe looks a lot like a Turtle. So does Norman.

    Woman don’t get off on men that resemble Turtle’s.

    Hence JK is scooping up the female vote that previously went a tad (pole) left! :)

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  56. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    The left, the sensible left know its already over, they are dispirited because the unions have saddled labour with this vain glorius flap doodle as leader.

    Labour have no policy, the last time labour had an innovative idea was in 1984, thirty years ago, since then its been tinkering with rights for a few smaller sectors of society. They wouldnt know economic sense if it bit them on the arse.

    I work with a lot of guys in heavy industry,people who are in traditional labour trades that were once heavily unionised. These guys are happy, there’s lots of work and more to come, they dont give a fuck about whose in government, they do give a fuck about what they take home and labour are the ones that will see them take less home.

    Three more years boys , three more years

    Vote: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  57. Rich Prick (1,705 comments) says:

    Indeed Paul, that’s what happens when Labour’s traditional support benefit from an economy that enables them to also become Labour’s despised rich pricks. That leaves Labour having to grope the ranks of perpetual beneficiaries and life’s losers. Trouble is, they too rise above that under National. Eventually Labour is left with the teachers, unions and the other feeble minded. The 28% I suppose.

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  58. Johnboy (16,554 comments) says:

    Bollocks. JK is picking up the female vote that traditionally has gone more to the lefties. The harpies that still support labour can hardly be classed as women! :)

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  59. Johnboy (16,554 comments) says:

    Hi Minus! :)

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  60. Rich Prick (1,705 comments) says:

    Johnboy I always look forward to my minus one’s with excitement, it suggests that Penny Bright, or one of her type has a thing for me. *shudder*

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  61. Johnboy (16,554 comments) says:

    It’s such fun Rich Prick to realise that out there somewhere is a poor sad bastard, without a life of it’s own, that constantly stalks the pages of KB watching for their hated target.

    I like to feed the poor creature by acknowledging it’s pathetic presence. :)

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  62. Rich Prick (1,705 comments) says:

    They come in spurts, I’m thinking its Len Brown.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote