Does UKIP doing well mean they will leave the EU?

April 30th, 2014 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

Iain Martin writes at the Telegraph:

YouGov for The Sunday Times yesterday asked voters how they would vote in the event of a referendum on the UK’s membership of the . Despite the country being, according to Ukippers, on the brink of a revolution which will bring down the entire political Establishment and liberate Britain from the LibLabCon tyranny, the numbers suggest that Britain wants to stay in the .

Asked how they would vote in an in/out referendum, 40 per cent said they would vote to stay in, 37 per cent said out, 18 per cent don’t know and 5 per cent would stay at home watching Cash in the Attic. Obviously a lot to play for, with as you might expect, a large number of don’t knows. Still, the inners are in front, despite all the recent excitement related to the European elections.

And look at the result when a second question was asked.

“Imagine the British government under David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with Europe and said that Britain’s interests were now protected, and David Cameron recommended that Britain remain a member of the European Union on the new terms. How would you then vote in a referendum on the issue?”

In such circumstances, 50 per cent say they would vote to stay in, 26 per cent to leave, 18 per cent don’t know and 5 per cent would stay at home watching the repeats of Location, Location, Location which (I’m told) follow Cash in the Attic.

So it could go either way if no renegotiation, but will stay in if there is one.

A caveat applies, of course. Perhaps Cameron would not get a renegotiation, with other major EU countries perhaps being incapable of seeing that unless there is a major shift in how the EU is structured one of its key members (the UK) could decide to try something else instead. 

It takes only one other country to block it, but if they do so then they will be responsible for the likely departure of the UK.

What I think we will see is a two-tier EU. One bloc being committed to full integration, and another to a less binding set of rules.

Before the hardliners from among the Ukip hordes – increasingly almost as intolerant of dissent as hardline Scottish nationalists, I note – denounce me as a traitor to my country, I want to make it clear that I am a moderate Eurosceptic who cherishes European culture but thinks the EU as currently constituted is bloated and bossy. In the event of a referendum I am persuadable, based on the arguments laid out by the inners and the outers, although like many people, I particularly hate being shouted at by golf club bar bores. I’m perfectly prepared to accept that the UK could have a successful and bright future trading as either an associate member of the EU or completely outside it with free trade agreements, if the outers explain, calmly, how the numerous obstacles might be overcome.

I have a similar view.

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26 Responses to “Does UKIP doing well mean they will leave the EU?”

  1. Fentex (909 comments) says:

    There are clearly different ambitions that people have for the E.U. – some want it to become a single state (some in hope they will get to be it’s President), others simply an organized friendship with common trade standards to varying degrees and some degree of free movement.

    I too think it will likely continue as multi-tier system – with economic membership distinct from tighter integration for some.

    The U.K’s reticence to adopt the Euro is a good example of discretion in what to combine with Europe.

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  2. James Stephenson (2,087 comments) says:

    Those numbers are hardly surprising given the pro-EU propaganda pushed by the Beeb and the liberal elites and the natural advantage that any status quo option has in a referrendum.

    Those elites are worried though, you can tell by the way they’re desperately trying to re-tread the old “Anti-EU = racist bigotry” meme at the moment.

    I wish one of the “inners”, which Iain is vainly trying to pretend he isn’t, could calmly explauin what these “numerous obstacles” might be.

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  3. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    It is pathetic the Europeans still think communism works.

    It is ironic that some former communist states are joining the EU in the hope their fortunes will improve following the poverty of their last experiment with communism. They are cashing in on the wealth of those countries that were never part of the USSR experiment of central government control of their economy and laws. I note however that the citizens often have no choice in the matter of joining the EU.

    The EU is presided over by extreme left socialists, Maoists and others, who have the stated goal of ending the Nation State.

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  4. Bob R (1,357 comments) says:

    The EU needs the UK and they should be able to renegotiate so their membership is an economic trading arrangement. The UK shouldn’t lose its sovereignty in terms of being subject to EU Courts on its own social legislation.

    The classic example is the inability of the UK to deport murderers and rapists:

    “A Nigerian rapist escaped deportation yesterday after European judges ruled he had a right to a ‘private life’ in Britain.

    Akindoyin Akinshipe, 24, was due to be sent home after losing appeal after appeal in the British courts over his jailing for an attack on a girl of 13.

    But in a staggering reversal yesterday, the European Court of Human Rights said this would breach his right to a ‘private and family life’.”

    This is despite him not having a wife, long-term partner or children in the UK – factors which foreign criminals have used to stay here under Article 8 of the Human Rights Act.”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2039702/UK-deport-Nigerian-rapist-violate-right-family-life.html

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  5. freethinker (685 comments) says:

    I left the UK as I saw the direction of Europe becoming the Soviet Socialist Republic of Europe which has not yet been reached despite the strenuous efforts of the Brussels Brigade of A**holes. The original intention when we voted in 1972 was the free movement of people & goods within the Euro area which has since morphed by stealth & deceit into an attempt at a political & financial union so it is unsurprising that many Brits revolt at being dictated to in areas that they feel are sensitive to British culture etc. I hope, really hope that UKIP scoop the Euro elections in May and force Cameron to reflect that failure to achieve what the significant minority, if the survey is representative, will not accept from Brussels at the risk of being forced to have UKIP as a parliamentary partner if the Conservatives want to be in government. Whilst there is no mechanism for exit Brussels should ponder what effective sanctions they could impose on the UK if they simply ignored whatever Euro laws they disagreed with and the event of an effective sanction simply stopped paying probably then causing a financial crisis. I strongly suspect that other European members will not only watch with bated breath how this plays out but some will want to follow whatever the UK does.

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  6. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    ‘The EU is presided over by extreme left socialists, Maoists and others, who have the stated goal of ending the Nation State.’
    Um, no it isn’t.

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  7. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    milky, KomrAde. How is the potato harvest in your sector ? Perhaps you should put your view that the EU is not communist enough to the committee.

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  8. thor42 (971 comments) says:

    The sooner that the UK leaves the EU, the better. Hopefully the EU will then collapse in a steaming heap.
    The UK will then be able to regain some semblance of independence.

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  9. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    I’d just like to see you name 10 of your alleged ‘Maoists’ presiding over the EU. Bet you can’t.

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  10. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    José Manuel Durão Barroso (ipa: [ʒuˈzɛ mɐˈnu̯ɛl duˈɾɐ̃u̯ bɐˈʁɔzu], born 23 March 1956) is the 11th and current President of the European Commission.

    In his college days, he was one of the leaders of the underground Maoist MRPP (Reorganising Movement of the Proletariat Party, later PCTP/MRPP, Communist Party of the Portuguese Workers/Revolutionary Movement of the Portuguese Proletariat).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9_Manuel_Barroso

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  11. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    Schulz unopposed as socialist frontrunner for Commission presidency

    Martin Schulz, the current president of the European Parliament, will lead the pan-European socialist campaign towards next EU elections in May 2014. He is also running as the socialist candidate for the seat of European Commission presidency.

    http://www.euractiv.com/eu-elections-2014/schulz-unopposed-socialist-front-news-531552

    ======================================================

    German Socialists Workers Party rises again milky. I bet you are delighted :)

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  12. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    Not a ‘Maoist’, is he? Probably a socialist in name only, barely to the left of our Labour Party.

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  13. kowtow (7,925 comments) says:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/6653340/Baroness-Ashton-questioned-over-CND-and-Soviet-money.html

    As pointed out above ,the British people joined a Common Market,in the EEC.

    Today that has morphed into the EU .There’s no doubt there’s a huge push to create a Federal europe. Noone in Britain was given a vote on that.

    The EU is also behind a lot of the trouble with Ukraine.

    Very dangerous.

    Once Britain gets out it will act as a catalyst for other sceptics,notably the krauts where Eurospecticism is growing.

    Why should hard working Bavarians have to pay for the lumpenproletarians of Ireland, Greece, Italy ,Spain etc to sit around and moan they don’t get enough out of the Hermans.

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  14. RRM (9,638 comments) says:

    like many people, I particularly hate being shouted at by golf club bar bores.

    That is a GREAT quote, irrespective of everything else in this post! :-)

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  15. duggledog (1,431 comments) says:

    Like so many things, great in theory, not so much in reality. Maggie was right.

    Effectively Brussels is another layer of bureaucracy. Local, national and European.

    Britain’s a toilet now. Tony & Gordon let one immigrant in every second.

    Having said all that, I read post after post especially last year here that said the EU or at least some member countries were going to collapse, it hasn’t happened.

    What’s happening???

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  16. KapitiCoast (114 comments) says:

    “increasingly almost as intolerant of dissent as hardline Scottish nationalists”….ohhh have to agree with that comment. I’m Scottish, been in NZ for 20yrs now and although proud as hell of who I am and where I come from, NZ has given me more opportunities and a better life than Scotland (UK in general) ever could. When my facebook ‘friends’ find out my outlook on the independence vote, which I say I’d vote NO they go feral…ohh dear, must be beatings and murders nearer the Sept vote I fear. I have been told I’m a traitor and a turncoat, and easy for me to say NO as i’m not under the ‘English thumb’…blah blah blah, FFS I can just imagine the EU debate over all of UK. UK is big enough to go solo, afterall they wisely kept the pound and ‘independence’ through that, Brussells is just a nightmare ruling UK and Europe…get out of it, or if they stay…make sure UK laws are UK laws and bugger the Brussels court to over rule almost everything…Abu Mukata anyone?

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  17. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    Neither the EU, nor any of its member countries, is in any danger of collapse. Any such talk comes from the usual fringe loonies.

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  18. Ed Snack (1,794 comments) says:

    What really amazes me is that if Cameron claimed he had renegotiated anything, that people would BELIEVE him !

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  19. kowtow (7,925 comments) says:

    mikey

    Cyprus,Greece and Ireland were all on the brink of financial collapse and all bailed out.That’s what’s happened.The EU elites broke the law to keep particularly Cyprus afloat knowing it would have been a house of cards.

    But you know that and deliberately post shite.

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  20. stephieboy (2,518 comments) says:

    Pat Condell has it , yet again, spot on this time the EC created by politicians for the benefit of politicians….not the voter…”

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  21. KapitiCoast (114 comments) says:

    Ohhh Mikemild…you are so wrong, you may follow a Labour party of NZ and think all is good, but in NZ you are also wrong,,,FFS wrong in 2 hemispheres must be a first!!

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  22. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    stupidboy, I was forced to give you an uptick. As a long time fan of Pat, I have noticed you are very selective on which of his vids you share. You do realise he is an atheist who opposes all religion the same as I do, don’t you ? Maybe you should show some of his other vids too ? :)

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  23. V (694 comments) says:

    The question may as well of asked if Cameron was going to turn into Father Xmas and bestow gifts on everyone. He’d have more chance of that actually happening than get any deal from the EU.

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  24. stephieboy (2,518 comments) says:

    Kea, it’s not a matter of been selective and yes he is an Atheist but is decidedly pro Jewish, Israeli, and anti Islam as well, which I think you’dl really appreciate.
    Yes.?

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  25. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    stupidboy, I am pro Jewish too. Collectively they have contributed a lot to progressive thought and social change that so infuriates conservative Christians. Also Jewish folk, like Noam Chomsky, are not shy about holding Israel to account for its hideous ongoing crimes in establishing a supremacist homeland for the the Master Race.

    I have said, a number or times, they are my favourite ignorant desert cult from the region.

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  26. ChardonnayGuy (1,183 comments) says:

    According to UK news media coverage, UKIP appears to have suctioned up the troglodyte ex-Tory contingent. Which is excellent news for the Conservative Party as it is rid of these oddballs and electoral liabilities. UKIP, on the other hand… :) :) :) oh dear, oh dear, oh dear… reminds me of the raving right nutbar contingent who infiltrated ACT and sabotaged its classical liberal policy direction…

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