March public polls

April 1st, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

marpolls

 

The above graphs tracks all the public since the election, averaging them out every month. The trend for Labour over the last six months is quite pronounced.

The newsletter summary is:

 

There were five political polls in March – a One News Colmar Brunton poll, a Fairfax Reid Research poll, a NZ Herald Digipoll and two Roy Morgan polls.

The average of the public polls has National 17% ahead of Labour in March, the same margin as in February. The current seat projection is centre-right 64 seats, centre-left 56 which would see National form a Government.

In Australia Labor retains a narrow lead, but there have been improvements in the national mood.

In the United States President Obama’s numbers are stable overall but dipping for handing of foreign policy – probably due to the Ukraine crisis.

In the UK Labour’s lead has dipped to just 3% in the wake of a generally positive budget for the Government. David Cameron’s ratings are also increasing.

In Canada the Liberals remain ahead in the polls, but no party is projected likely to win a majority.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on the Kim Dotcom, the NZ Flag, Countdown, Len Brown, income inequality Labour’s baby bonus plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

Tags:

15 Responses to “March public polls”

  1. Mark (1,488 comments) says:

    With a dominant position in the polls the seats in the house position is stil tenuous for National. MMP is one fucked up system

    Vote: Thumb up 16 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. Colville (2,272 comments) says:

    The trend for Labour over the last six months is quite pronounced.

    DPF, maybe you mean the trend since Cun*liffe came to power is quite pronounced?

    Bwaaaahahahahahahaha :-)

    David Cun*liffe, leading Labour to single figure voter popularity since 15 September 2013.

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. Pete George (23,591 comments) says:

    More on polls – a major factor that is often ignored by poll coverage are the ‘don’t knows’. In the last One News/Colmar poll there were 13% ‘Don’t Know’ (and 5% refused) but they are excluded from the news reporting. I haven’t been able to find out how many there were in the 3 News poll.

    It would be interesting to have the Don’t Knows analysed. There could be a number of categories like:

    Don’t Care
    Don’t Know Anything About Politics
    Don’t Bother About It Until The Election
    Follow Politics But Don’t Decide Until Election Day

    Polls are a useful part of the evaluation. Understanding what polls actually mean and don’t mean helps. Understanding that late swings are always on the cards also helps. Remember that no polls are taken on election day, they are snapshots of opinion prior to that so they cannot predict what will happen on election day, just sentiments at some point prior.

    I think genuine thinking swing voters are an important part of the voter mix. We annoy the hell out of political activists who can’t understand a lack of blind dedication to their own cause. And we may frustrate pollsters.

    ‘Don’t knows’ and swing voters can decide elections when they do know and if the do vote. Ignore at your peril.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    These are early days fellows. The Matt McCarten effect is yet to filter through. Watch out for the next set of polls, starting from Roy Morgan end of next week. As Cunliffe says, the milkgate effect will start to show through.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 4 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. griffith (1,111 comments) says:

    Sir cunning

    Oh dear

    matt coming to push labour left has the obvious consequences.

    of labour spiraling into oblivion.

    ffs THE WORKING MAN

    Is sick of the fruits of his sweat being stolen to prop up the lifestyles of the truly useless.

    labour…….
    Orwellian double speak.
    Labour. The party for the not labouring.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. Manolo (13,837 comments) says:

    I enjoy and appreciate SCF’s cutting (and witty) comments. He plays devil’s advocate and speaks common sense.
    Well done, that man.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. Colville (2,272 comments) says:

    Yes, SCS’s comments, that of the truly (truely?) deluded Labour supporter. Quite wonderfully funny viewed in isolation.

    Want to see a few dozen of the sycophantic weirdos in action…visit http://thestandard.org.nz/

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    I’m pretty sure SCS is a parody commenter actually.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    “With a dominant position in the polls the seats in the house position is still tenuous for National. MMP is one fucked up system”

    46% of the vote, delivers to 46% of the seats, it seems the system is working exactly as it should.

    Nationals problem is the strategic failure to allow coalition partners to develop

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. griffith (1,111 comments) says:

    National is a monolith that prevents the right from developing difference.

    It has very strong links to conservative catholic factions.

    Most of its voters are not conservative but liberal right.

    MMP would alow for difference in right-wing party’s to develop if the system removed the 5% threshold.

    The concept of electoral seats is not representative and allows gerrymandering of election results by boundary revisions.

    The 5% threshold is distorted by the maori seats guaranteeing maori representation. A skewed electorate system that empowers maori at a cost to the democratic representation of the rest of the population..

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. BeaB (2,125 comments) says:

    Winston for Governor General.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. Chuck Bird (4,895 comments) says:

    “The 5% threshold is distorted by the maori seats guaranteeing maori representation. A skewed electorate system that empowers maori at a cost to the democratic representation of the rest of the population.. ”

    That is why it will be interesting to see if Winston holds the balance if Key will agree to a binding referendum on the continuation of Maori seats. The only benefit a brown troughing elite.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    Looking at those graphs it tells me that National polls steadily at about 45%, Labour polls the same line at about 33%, and Greens at about 12%. So clearly they are about equal National/LabourGreen.

    A clearly analyst would then work out what was going on at the times their votes varied and offer policies or whatever to recreate those circumstances, in order to win their vote. After all, this election long ago stopped being about the best party, but rather the party that can throw or avoid the most shit.

    The winners of the election will of course be the small parties – as usual our future will be decided by the minority who will have the most power. Our melting pot will continue to boil away achieving nothing … you just gotta love MMP in its current form.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. Chuck Bird (4,895 comments) says:

    Judith, I am no fan of MMP in its present form either. However the important thing is seats not percentage. If you look at the left side bar you will see that National, ACT and UF will have 60 seats And Labour, Greens and Mana will have 54 seats. That leaves the Maori Party and NZF with 9 seats which could go either way. Both the Maori Party and NZF know that you can do more in government than in opposition. Have a look at ipredict.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. griffith (1,111 comments) says:

    Peters can go form a Government with the left.

    It will be funny as.

    And last x weeks ?

    With x being the week after the first full working meeting between him and reps from mana less and the red greens.

    We can all make a fortune on currency trading as they screw the economy around in circles.

    Then confidence and supply for national with Peters having no leverage for baubles because hes sold his soul already this time around.

    The old fox is to cunning he will go with national for a limo , an office. a staff . an excuse to travel and a reason to grand stand.

    Forget his promises to the electorate.

    He knows that we know and we know that he knows…..

    Just play the dance out.

    politics …eh…

    same old

    same old

    …smegg

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote