- The electoral system
- He’s no John Key. But he ain’t Phil Goff either
- New Zealand First: a spent force?
- The missing voters
- A new electoral landscape?
The electoral system definitely favours Labour.
Cunluffe is a very good debater, but so was Phil Goff. The challenge for Cunliffe will not be doing well in the debates, but having a good enough brand leading up to the debates that. Vance puts it like this:
He’s two-parts untrustworthy to one-part fake. And that’s just among his MPs.
Andrea is right that Winston is far less of a force in the House now. However that doesn’t mean he won’t make 5%. A few bribes to oldies and bash up the Chinese is a pretty tested formula for him.
The missing voters is what Labour is gambling everything on. It will help them if they can motivate sympathetic non-voters but I’ve yet to see signs that their own supporters are motivated – let alone non-voters.
National not getting any allies into Parliament is the nightmare scenario. They get 59 seats again but can’t govern.
So Vance is correct that Labour absolutely can win. There’s five months to go. The odds are against them but if they get their shit together they will be competitive.