Vance on why Labour can still win

April 8th, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

gives five reasons Labour can still win:

  1. The electoral system
  2. He’s no John Key. But he ain’t Phil Goff either
  3. New Zealand First: a spent force?
  4. The missing voters
  5. A new electoral landscape?

The electoral system definitely favours .

Cunluffe is a very good debater, but so was Phil Goff. The challenge for Cunliffe will not be doing well in the debates, but having a good enough brand leading up to the debates that. Vance puts it like this:

He’s two-parts untrustworthy to one-part fake. And that’s just among his MPs.

Ouch.

Andrea is right that Winston is far less of a force in the House now. However that doesn’t mean he won’t make 5%. A few bribes to oldies and bash up the Chinese is a pretty tested formula for him.

The missing voters is what Labour is gambling everything on. It will help them if they can motivate sympathetic non-voters but I’ve yet to see signs that their own supporters are motivated – let alone non-voters.

National not getting any allies into Parliament is the nightmare scenario. They get 59 seats again but can’t govern.

So Vance is correct that Labour absolutely can win. There’s five months to go. The odds are against them but if they get their shit together they will be competitive.

Tags: ,

45 Responses to “Vance on why Labour can still win”

  1. Nostalgia-NZ (4,896 comments) says:

    The missing voters don’t necessarily need to be roused by a party they have previously supported, they can be roused against an unpopular policy or some political misdemeanour. Somehow I think rousing for the ‘good fight’ won’t work well this election, however part of the population becoming angry or disturbed about something in the political arena could be a different case and then there are all the potential variations of the smaller parties each at sea now looking for a favourable wind.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. hj (6,330 comments) says:

    Andrea is right that Winston is far less of a force in the House now. However that doesn’t mean he won’t make 5%. A few bribes to oldies and bash up the Chinese is a pretty tested formula for him.
    ………………………..

    NZ First is no match for the scores of people who head into journalism and the public service (and Labour Party) having been taught Critical Racism Theory and the concept of white privilege (the Invisible Knapsack) by our taxpayer funded departments of sociology. With National (ofcourse) it is pure self-interest (Harcourt’s Shanghai).

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 5 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. Redbaiter (7,522 comments) says:

    Pointless & trite speculation by a cynical poseur desperate to sell advertising space.

    If it was up to me she would be doing 10 years hard labour for breach of national security.

    Beats me why the irish nitwit is still permitted to live in NZ.

    Should at least have been deported.

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Viking2 (11,125 comments) says:

    If the Nats want to be there they had better either get used to Winston or do better than they are currently.

    Vote: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. ShawnLH (3,182 comments) says:

    Assuming National will do another deal for ACT in Epsom, and supposedly one for CC, then the nightmare scenario is a bit of a stretch.

    Vote: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. BeaB (2,056 comments) says:

    These articles are just what National need to get their supporters riled up and out to vote. The spectre of the Three Ringed Circus of Labour, Greens and Winston First is surely more than enough to get us out to the polling booth with friends and family in tow.

    I am always bemused by the journalists’ reverence for Cunliffe’s ‘giant brain’. This towering intellect has managed to drop his poll ratings below David Shearer’s for gods sake. He is a fake and a phony and creepily smarmy.But he’s brilliant! Spare us.

    Vote: Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. Manolo (13,315 comments) says:

    Ruin awaits NZ if the socialists win the election. Guaranteed.

    Vote: Thumb up 15 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (783 comments) says:

    Thanks for finally agreeing to the scenario I have been painting for a long time.

    Now to counter the argument, Key needs to do the following:

    1. Ensure deals are in place for ACT, UNITED FUTURE, Maori party and Conservatives. Maori party in my view will at least win two seats if not three

    2. Hold your nose and be ready to deal with uncle Peters. If he doesn’t make it, praise the Lord and happily govern

    3. Ensure that the voters know how a Labour-Green-Mana.COM will ruin the country

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. smttc (687 comments) says:

    Gee Viking2, that’s a bit harsh. When was the last time a second term government flew as high in the polls under MMP as National. Helen Clark did not even come close. I would say the Nats are doing as well as they can if they are knocking on the door marked “govern alone”. It’s everyone else that needs to get their shit together.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. ChardonnayGuy (1,131 comments) says:

    David, if the ‘electoral system’ favours Labour, then why is it that Germany’s Angela Merkel is currently serving her third term as German Chancellor? Granted, it’s her second term with a CDU/SPD ‘grand coalition,’ but she’s still firmly in the drivers seat.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. David Garrett (6,309 comments) says:

    Russell! You are back with us…good show.

    BeaB: You are conflating two things which don’t necessarily go together. There are numerous examples of psycopathic criminals – Ted Bundy springs to mind – who were undoubtedly highly intelligent, even brilliant, but were horrors of human beings. Similarly it is quite possible that Cunliffe is academically brilliant (who knows? His CV keeps changing) but to also be, as you say, “fake and a phony.”

    I never got closer to the man than exchanging pleasantries…but even back in 2009-10 it was obvious that he didn’t have many friends in his own caucus. He was one of those guys who sat by themselves in the Koru Club waiting for a flight home at the end of the sitting week. That was very unusual.

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. Cunningham (811 comments) says:

    “but if they get their shit together” in other words their chances are very slim based on the train wreck that has been Cunliffe so far. I wonder if his brand is permanently tainted now after all the massive own goals they have scored.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. Chuck Bird (4,661 comments) says:

    David, do you remember if Cunliffe was the MP who got caught smacking his toddler when the anti-smacking bill was being debated? I seem the recall he was the one.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. mikenmild (10,611 comments) says:

    I’m still picking Winston to be kingmaker and choose National, on the basis of the higher quality of baubles they will offer.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. David Garrett (6,309 comments) says:

    Chuck: No, I have no memory of that…in fact I have no memory of any Labour MP being caught in such a position…

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. ShawnLH (3,182 comments) says:

    It’s hard to see NZF’s voting base being happy with a coalition with the Greens and Mana.

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. Chuck Bird (4,661 comments) says:

    Thanks David. I remember clearly one was caught. Cunliffe was not so well known then so that is why I cannot recall. I do recall the MSM went easy on him as they were also pro the anti-smacking bill.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. David Garrett (6,309 comments) says:

    Shawn: I think that’s quite right…and it is also the reason Peters never says who he is likely to support prior to an election…he always uses some waffle about “waiting until the people have spoken” or something similar….That way he avoids alienating his core supporters by hinting that he might hop into bed with the loonies, but can later do just that because “those were the cards the people dealt us” blah blah blah…

    Chuck: The MSM are corrupt… or at least not impartial…best example: Guyon Espiner, Political Editor for TVNZ…had Darren Hughes as the MC at his wedding…nothing wrong in that in itself of course, but you don’t chose as MC someone who you dont know very well and can call a friend…ergo they socialised together a lot prior to the wedding during a time Espiner was supposed to be commenting impartially on politics and politicians…

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. Ashley Schaeffer (402 comments) says:

    Thanks DG for your insights. It’s good to have some commentary from someone who was ‘in the thick of it’ for a time.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  20. kiwi in america (2,431 comments) says:

    If Peters is the kingmaker (odds are on that he will) he won’t play 3rd fiddle to the Greens and the Greens wont play 3rd fiddle to him. The Greens will demand (and get) 25-33% of Cabinet posts and substantial policies enacted – power and policies that Peters opposes even if Cunliffe offers him Foreign Affairs or even deputy PM. Key will be able to offer Peters a much clearer and unambiguous portfolio preference and a few semi-meaningful but clear policy wins more than Cunliffe hamstrung by the Greens could ever manage.

    Vote: Thumb up 17 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  21. mikenmild (10,611 comments) says:

    Yes KIA, higher quality of baubles on offer from National…

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  22. Ross12 (1,143 comments) says:

    My main hope is National and their supporters don’t get one ounce of complacency. We only have to look at what happened in the weekend in the W.Aust senate rerun election –how the Greens got such a high vote in a state dependent on resources beats me.
    ( NB. I’m not suggesting the liberals got complacent

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  23. flipper (3,533 comments) says:

    It is interesting to read varying perceptions of National Party motivation and determination to win again in September.

    Flipper attended a Candidates Meeting for the Wairarapa Electorate held in Masterton last Sunday afternoon.

    Contrary to the organisers expectations, some 170 attended, of which more than 100 were qualified to vote when final selection takes place on April 25. Further candidates meetings are scheduled – Dannevirke (last night), Waipukurau and Greytown. Those entitled to vote at final selection are persons who have been Members of the party fort at least six (6) monthsand resident in the electorate (to prevent last minute sign-ups and parachuting) which runs from Waipawa in the north, east to the coast and south to Ocean beach in Palliser Bay…… and MUST attend at least one candidates meeting.

    I have to say that the attendance was such that the meeting had to abandon the booked room at the Masterton Cosmopolitan Club and take over the entire club dining room.

    The four candidates were all of excellent quality and the mood of the meeting was clearly one of both satisfaction with J Key et al, and a steadfast determination to win on Sept 20.

    Frankly I doubt that Labour and the red melons together have 170 members in the dentire Wairarapa Electorate, let alone the 170 attending the Masterton area meeting.

    So…. may be Vance et al might be better employed attending similar meetings instead if interviewing their lap tops.

    Flipper agrees with those who see Vance and the MSM as being likely to arouse a sleeping National membership bear….not the half wits on the other side. :-)

    Vote: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  24. Paulus (2,490 comments) says:

    When Winston has the balance of Power he will sit on the cross benches supporting whoever and whatever he wants – as long as it is against John Key, who he seriously dislikes personally.
    He will not have anything directly to do with the Green Trotsky led Taliban anyway, but can be manipulated by greed as we know.

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  25. gravedodger (1,506 comments) says:

    A couple of points around this recurring nightmare.
    1 Calling The venal Peters a Kingmaker when he is actually a resurrected scruffy mangy, smelly tail seeking a dog to wag.
    2 suggesting NZ Inc ending up with the “hydra” as a “win” is surely a gross manipulation of the truth.
    Peters, melons, the disciples of the Kraut,factional riven Labour, the racist from Nga Puhi, and anything Flavell can dredge up from the grave of the MP or any combination as a government has me wondering if Jerry Matapare our ex top military man would want that on his watch.
    3 Just how much of this garbage is Vance’s current orgasm.

    Yes it could come to pass but it might be the catalyst to finally get the citizens to look beyond their wants and seek the highground Kennedy was articulating half a century ago.
    ” ask not what your country can do for you, ask what can you do for your country”.
    Electing a remnant from the ark of socialism, a fugitive from justice, a few racists and dreamers, all in reality just lobby groups to be a government. I know our education system is world class but are we collectively that thick.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  26. seanmaitland (455 comments) says:

    Does anyone else feel disappointed in how absolutely shit the left are in New Zealand at the moment, yet still manage to cobble together nearly 50% of the vote?

    Its quite dispiriting – especially given the crap building blocks the current government have been given to work with, and somehow they’ve still managed to come out pretty damned well – in all rights they should have a landslide margin.

    Vote: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  27. mikenmild (10,611 comments) says:

    sean
    National are quite simply feeling the lack of a significant and reliable coalition partner. MMP makes it very difficult for a party to govern on its own and there is nothing much beyond a few scraps of support for Act and the Conservatives for National to work with.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  28. Judith (7,460 comments) says:

    @ seanmaitland (396 comments) says:
    April 8th, 2014 at 11:43 am

    Yes I agree the left are shit – but the right are … well, lets just say, not shit, but a whole heap of other things that are not particularly good either

    Voters are, I guess, left to decide, which one offers the ‘least worst’ scenario for them.

    As long as we have MMP, we will be controlled by the minority. They will get the power by holding either side to task in order for them to ‘win’. It’s an appalling situation, made worse by the fact that Key could have done something about it, but seems to enjoy his cups of tea too much.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  29. peterwn (3,140 comments) says:

    This is great talk – it will put National MP’s, office holders, members, helpers and the other faithful that they need to get their A’s into G for the upcoming election.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  30. lolitasbrother (467 comments) says:

    My name is Andrea Vance. I can speak and write English but I have no thinking power at all.
    I am employed to send out mush. Why in God’s name the centre right would give me space in a blog is beyond my intellect. Everything is beyond my intellect

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  31. backster (2,073 comments) says:

    I think National’s best chance lies in giving a soft seat to the Conservatives who have been fairly consistent around 2%. With a fighting chance they may also be seen as an alternate to Winston and steal enough elderly conservative voters to drop him below 5%, while enhancing their own vote enough to get a few vital coathanger mps in. I can’t see any rebound from either Act or United Future.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  32. ROJ (79 comments) says:

    Please may Craig take those votes from NZF, he certainly is likely to play to the same crowd. And PLEASE, PLEASE, may that mean neither of them get to the 5% (I trust no electorate is that dumb)

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  33. Mark (1,356 comments) says:

    The outcomes in this election that scare the crap out of me.

    A labour/Greens win
    Any government with the greens as part of it.
    Any govt that has Labour in it
    National having to deal with the twats running the conservative party stay in power.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  34. Elaycee (4,286 comments) says:

    @Chuck Bird (9.43am) / @ David Garrett (9.46am):

    The MP who was observed smacking their child in an Auckland mall in 2007, was…. David Cunliffe.

    And the PM who leapt to his defence (remember, this was after the anti smacking Law had been passed), was Dear Leader – H1.

    No surprises. None at all. Hypocrisy knows no bounds.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10449047

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  35. Mark (1,356 comments) says:

    Elaycee
    the anti smacking legioslation was green party policy not Labour. Not defending Clark here but your stretching it iof you are trying to pin the policy on Labour.

    Its a bit like blaming National for Charter Schools. Stupid policy but simply the cost of MMP

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  36. Elaycee (4,286 comments) says:

    @Mark: Yup…. but Cunliffe voted for it. So did Dear Leader H1. And yet after the Law had been passed, Cunliffe smacks his kid. And H1 comes out in defence….. (er, not the most appropriate expression, but you’ll get my drift).

    Not saying Cunliffe’s actions were right or wrong – but they were definitely that of a hypocrite.

    Sorted.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  37. bringbackdemocracy (391 comments) says:

    The maths is simple
    No Conservatives = No National lead Government.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  38. OneTrack (2,564 comments) says:

    Mark, I am under the impression Clark took the policy from the Greens and championed it through the house.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  39. Bob R (1,334 comments) says:

    @ hj,

    Heh, I saw a young white male Labour Party supporter on twitter talking about white privilege. The Cultural Marxism lessons have certainly been swallowed whole by the young Communists.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  40. Scott1 (444 comments) says:

    Here is my guess as long as Key doesn’t try to eat baby George.

    If NZfirst gets in National wins unless Key doesn’t want to negotiate/govern.
    If not then national still wins if it throws some combination of Act and Conservatives and UF seats.
    If not then it it pretty tight. National still wins by 1 seat on the back of Key being a safer pair of hands heading into the election with better debate performances etc. National campaigners sweat a bit though.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  41. Johnboy (14,876 comments) says:

    I Predict: Winston will get nine MP’s in 2014 and JK will anoint him Deputy PM/Foreign Affairs Minister (with unlimited travel budget) so he is hardly ever here and Bill can get on with sorting things out while the Winston First clones get to vote for all National wants them to! :)

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  42. Johnboy (14,876 comments) says:

    Silent and the other Ginga Tortoisehead will knash their teeth till Silent get’s rolled by the presidium! :)

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  43. Johnboy (14,876 comments) says:

    2017 will see a grand coalition of Green/Gingers led by Russel/Grant roll the Nat’s only to be torpedoed by the Unionists under the command of Little/Kelly before their first year in office.

    I’ll be sitting in the town square with my knitting to cheer the heads rolling! :)

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  44. Mark (1,356 comments) says:

    bringbackdemocracy (346 comments) says:
    April 8th, 2014 at 5:43 pm
    The maths is simple
    No Conservatives = No National lead Government.
    Vote: 1 0

    If that is the case then the country is fucked whoever wins. Although with Craig sueing all and sundry becuase of his hypersensitivity it could be amusing at least.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  45. Mark (1,356 comments) says:

    OneTrack (1,922 comments) says:
    April 8th, 2014 at 5:53 pm
    Mark, I am under the impression Clark took the policy from the Greens and championed it through the house.
    Vote: 1 0

    Perhaps so but the point is the cost of MMP is having minor parties putting forward unworkable or unnecessary legislation as the cost of supporting the government. This was not Labour policy but they prostituted themselves to gain the green party support, whether they believed in it is somewate debatable given Cunliffs actions. Clark at that point had little option but to push iot through the house.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.