April 2014 polls

May 11th, 2014 at 12:48 pm by David Farrar

apr14polls

Just published the latest monthly newsletter. The summary is:

There were just three political in April – all from Roy Morgan. Hence the poll average for April is based just on their .

The average of the public polls has National 14% ahead of Labour in April, down 3% from March. The current seat projection is centre-right 57 seats, centre-left 55 which would see NZ First holding the balance of power.

In Australia support for the Government falls after their plans to impose a temporary tax on higher income earners was revealed.

In the United States President Obama’s numbers are improving slightly for domestic policy, but dropping for foreign policy. The Republicans now lead in generic congressional polls. 

In the UK David Cameron’s approval ratings have fallen away as polls show the UK Independence Party leading for the upcoming European elections. Scottish independence polls show the no vote ahead by 2% to 14% with an average 6% gap.

In Canada the Conservatives are up 3% but remain behind the Liberals who are projected likely to form a minority government.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. The mood in Australia has dropped significantly in the last month.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on the republicanism, the NZ Flag, registering dog owners plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

 

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35 Responses to “April 2014 polls”

  1. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    Saw Winston on Maori Television this morning and I have to say, he is looking strong – and was picked by the commentators as the strongest, just like yesterdays debate. His title of King maker is looking frighteningly certain.

    At this stage, the only thing that is sure however is that the next government is going to be yet another coalition, with maybe even more parties involved than before.

    Can anyone come up with even one point as to how that would be a good thing for New Zealand?

    I still put my money on being back at the polls within two years.

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  2. duggledog (1,559 comments) says:

    How odd to have a political system where Bronze and Silver can beat Gold (my analogy – Green + Red can beat Blue)

    Still, Kiwis do love to champion and support losers, so why wouldn’t we. At schools now they have ‘try-athlons’. Jesus.

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  3. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    Neh Judith – Power binds. The Greens are so hungry for crown limo rides they will even kiss the devil to get their hands on the throne. Three years of hell and may be, that too may be sun shine. John Key is way over relaxed and lazy to knock these nutters down. If his performance on Wednesday is any hint, if he puts his mind, none of these jokers are a match for him in any debate. But he is so lazy and relaxed, he simply lets things drift away….the race between the the hare and tortoise comes to my mind……

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  4. Kea (12,841 comments) says:

    At this stage, the only thing that is sure however is that the next government is going to be yet another coalition, with maybe even more parties involved than before.

    Can anyone come up with even one point as to how that would be a good thing for New Zealand?

    Judith, you can do your part to fix that by voting National like a good girl should and stopping all this nonsense about that nice man Mr Key ;)

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  5. nocommentkiwi (35 comments) says:

    DPF – When can we expect the Curia weighted avg poll to be updated on the side-bar?

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  6. duggledog (1,559 comments) says:

    Judith!

    “Saw Winston on Maori Television this morning and I have to say, he is looking strong”

    It’s television dear. They have lights and makeup.

    I saw Winnie at the airport after he flew back from… Korea I think it was (was in the paper, can’t remember, just around Christmas last year).

    He looked utterly terrible, I did a double take. I said hello as an anonymous citizen to see if he had a cold or something and he didn’t. Nobody’s at their best after a long flight like that but I have to say he had that pallor of greyness that made me wonder how long he has…

    Booze fags and stress, I can’t believe he’s still going. The force is strong in that one.

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  7. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Can anyone come up with even one point as to how that would be a good thing for New Zealand?

    It’s fine. Winston showed that he can work with Labour before. It’s not clear if he can work with the Greens, but today’s Green Party is a different beast to that which contested the 2005 election. Norman has become a much more effective leader in the last year or so, and rules aside, he is the de facto leader of the Greens.

    Winston may well choose to support National on confidence and supply, but that would probably lose him votes, since NZF voters are mostly disaffected conservatives.

    The only MMP government that has actually failed was the National/NZF coalition, because the hard right in National couldn’t stand not to get their own way.

    The lesson of NZ politics is that there will never be a majority for the hard right policies that most on this blog want. Even Matthew Hooton has admitted this. There is no natural economically conservative majority in NZ.

    If National wants to be the party of perpetual government, then it can easily do so. It just needs to eject the far right Randroids from the party.

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  8. duggledog (1,559 comments) says:

    ‘because the hard right in National couldn’t stand not to get their own way’

    You call what that was ‘hard right?!’ Tom, I’m going to coin a phrase. You’re a softard. (But I do like you & your posts).

    ‘There is no natural economically conservative majority in NZ.’

    Yeah, not right now, but there’s nothing like hard times to make one fiscally conservative. I wasn’t economically conservative until I had kids and a mortgage and had to face the fallout of my reckless youth i.e. spending almost all I earned on good times

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  9. tom hunter (4,894 comments) says:

    It just needs to eject the far right Randroids from the party.

    Tough to do that when nobody knows who they are. Perhaps they should try speaking up?

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  10. ShawnLH (5,285 comments) says:

    “If National wants to be the party of perpetual government, then it can easily do so. It just needs to eject the far right Randroids from the party.”

    There aren’t any.

    National has ridden high in the polls since first being elected, and they still look like the party most likely to govern after the election, so your claim looks like bs.

    NZF will will go with the largest party, which will be National. Peter’s knows that he will be able to get far more concessions from a National coalition than one that has the Greens and Mana in it.

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  11. OneTrack (3,114 comments) says:

    dpf – “The current seat projection is centre-right 57 seats, ..,”

    Do you still call National centre-right? That was a long time ago. They are centre-left now, and have been since Key came to power.

    That’s why Labour have been forced into the left and are butting up with the hard-left greens.

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  12. Fisiani (1,039 comments) says:

    This election could be very close. Do you want a strong John Key led National government or a collection of losers? Every day I am convincing peopleto keep NZstrong and Party Vote National.

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  13. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    What do you say to convince them?

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  14. Johnboy (16,651 comments) says:

    Meanwhile polls in inner Mongolia suggest Camel Fuckers Party by a hair! :)

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  15. s.russell (1,642 comments) says:

    It is ironic, but Labour’s weakness makes NZ First strong as many on the (old-style) left despair of Labour and seek an alternative that is not National. That makes NZF far more likely to clear the 5% hurdle and gain the balance – potentially putting Labour into power. If Labour was strong enough to squeeze out NZF it would ironically be less likely to win as it would likely still need those NZF seats to assemble a majoriry, even with the Greens.

    OneTrack: National is to the left of you perhaps, and to the left of where you think the centre SHOULD be, but it is to the right of the median voter, ergo National is on the right. Your problem is the the median voter is in the wrong place.

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  16. Johnboy (16,651 comments) says:

    It will be JK and Winston in 2014!

    God save us all! :)

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  17. Fisiani (1,039 comments) says:

    Mikenmild I simply askthem to choose any topic they want, health, education, the economy, crime, wealth, employment or even the movies and pointout how under National everything is brighter now than before and that with Bill English at the helm we are on a rolling wave of prosperity but would founder under the Yeah Nah monster alternative.

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  18. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Yeah, not right now, but there’s nothing like hard times to make one fiscally conservative.

    True dat. Supposedly the hard times are ending.

    Food for thought..

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  19. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Do you still call National centre-right? That was a long time ago. They are centre-left now, and have been since Key came to power.

    I guess the far far right Randroids on this blog have problems seeing the far right Randroids in the NP. ;-)

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  20. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ duggledog (1,156 comments) says:
    May 11th, 2014 at 1:25 pm

    Years back when I was working for the gummit, I used to dine at the Green Parrot a bit, being away from home, and meals paid to a certain level, used to dine out every night. It was a favourite hang out of Winston’s, I have to say every time I spoke him he was charming … and I should add – inebriated!

    When I said strong, I actually meant in the ‘race’ regarding a position on the winners podium.

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  21. Johnboy (16,651 comments) says:

    Did you fuck him Judith? :)

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  22. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ ShawnLH (2,390 comments) says:
    May 11th, 2014 at 2:05 pm

    NZF will will go with the largest party, which will be National.

    I don’t agree. I think Peters knows he would be locking antlers with Key, both being strong personalities. Instead he could dominate and ride all over a Labour coalition from the inside – getting his own way, and whilst not having the top job, would certainly be ‘in charge’, some thing he would never get with Key.

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  23. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ Johnboy (13,500 comments) says:
    May 11th, 2014 at 4:43 pm

    Nah, my code of conduct wouldn’t allow me to do anything to bring my employer into disrepute!
    Besides the ol’ boy wouldn’t let me! :P

    PS, by Ol’ boy, I wasn’t meaning Winston.

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  24. Johnboy (16,651 comments) says:

    What a shame Judith.
    Think of the lost opportunity for notoriety on KB. “Wrinkled old hag shags crinkled old dag” ! :)

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  25. OneTrack (3,114 comments) says:

    s.russel@4:04 – I tend to base my descriptions on left vs right on the types of policies, not on the voter base. You are saying that a specific set of policies could be deemed left or right wing depending on the country that was being talked about ie WFF would be considered hard-right wing in Stalin’s Soviet Union.

    edit It also means a centre policy from the 1970’s may now be deemed far right.

    That doesnt seem useful.

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  26. Tom Barker (143 comments) says:

    Look at that stunning result for ACT. An unequivocal tribute to the intelligence, charisma and media visibility of Jamie What’s-his-name.

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  27. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    Joker Winston declares on TV that Judith Collins will be gone by next week as there is more to come and clown Cunliffe agrees. They cannot debate – health, education, jobs, debt – NOTHING. None of the things that matter to Kiwis. All they can talk about is Judith Collins’ dinner. I am sure the opposition will be exposed soon for their emptiness.

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  28. OneTrack (3,114 comments) says:

    SCS -It’s a chilling look into what the Labour/Winston mindset thinks is important and where their priorities lie.

    They haven’t managed to “get Key”, so now they have moved on to “get Collins”. They want their scalps. But they are warm people who really care about their fellow human beings. How do I know that? Be ause they keep telling us so, so it must be true. They wouldn’t lie, would they?

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  29. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    They haven’t managed to “get Key”, so now they have moved on to “get Collins”.

    You haven’t been watching. Key cannot really afford to fire Collins, and so the opposition have moved on from directly attacking her to attacking him for keeping her in a job.

    No doubt it’s pissing him off, since both he and the opposition know that he (and many others in the National Party, for various reasons) would like to see Collins gone.

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  30. infused (656 comments) says:

    Judith needs to go now as she’s a cluster fuck of epic proportions. She should have been cut down last week.

    National were riding all over the left until this bullshit happened.

    I think Key thought he could ride it. Nope.

    Get rid of her.

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  31. Shazzadude (529 comments) says:

    “How odd to have a political system where Bronze and Silver can beat Gold (my analogy – Green + Red can beat Blue)”

    Actually, it’s more like 14 grams of gold plus 33 grams of gold is more than 43 grams of gold.

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  32. lolitasbrother (702 comments) says:

    I just listened to Colin Craig on the Otago University debate, and this man is even better than i expected.
    I expect Key to allow him his seat in the Parliament. We deserve this Conservative full of integrity.

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  33. lolitasbrother (702 comments) says:

    infused May 11th, 2014 at 9:47 pm
    quote ”

    Judith needs to go now as she’s a cluster fuck of epic proportions. She should have been cut down last week.
    National were riding all over the left until this bullshit happened. I think Key thought he could ride it. Nope.
    Get rid of her.”

    unquote

    agreed Paul Scott, but we have to remember that her private dinner was printed into her schedule

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  34. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    mikenwimp: See your brilliant leeching suburb now devoid of its supermarket. It has been deemed unviable to build a new one . . . where is that sleezy Mallard on this disaster, or does the taxpayer/ratepayer fund your visits to the Hutt!

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  35. Boris Piscina (53 comments) says:

    “Look at that stunning result for ACT. An unequivocal tribute to the intelligence, charisma and media visibility of Jamie What’s-his-name.”

    Well said.

    ….so lemme get this straight; 48% want National, but 67% don’t want asset sales, so ACT’s solution is to push for more asset sales in order to increase support for the Right bloc. Umm….

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