English says Labour can win

May 5th, 2014 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

Labour could still win power at the next election, deputy leader and Finance Minister said in a speech warning against complacency.

“The Opposition can be divided, it can have many leaders and co-leaders, it can have no vision, very little policy, be disorganised but under MMP it can win and we need to remember that every single day.”

Labour and Greens and NZ First and Mana and Dotcom. Your alternative Government.

He said National would need to win the highest vote any incumbent Government had ever won – it was re-elected for a second term in 2011 with 47.31 per cent of the vote.

47% may not be enough is what he is saying.

He also told delegates to make no assumptions about who was a potential voter, pointing to a large representation at the conference from south Auckland.

Good to see.

Tags: ,

29 Responses to “English says Labour can win”

  1. Lindsay Addie (1,342 comments) says:

    National need to be careful as they starting to look a bit frayed around the edges with cabinet ministers rightly or wrongly ending up looking down the barrel. I know to many on the right Collins has been thought of as being the ‘bees knees’ but she doesn’t look so good now. She was probably over rated from the start. They’re also losing Ryall who has been outstanding in the Health Portfolio.

    Support for the incumbent party tends to weaken bit by bit which is the real danger the Nats have to deal with now.

    Vote: Thumb up 16 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    What he means is that there is no natural conservative majority in NZ. National has only ever been able to govern by making deals with centrist politicians, the Maori Party and the Epsom shenanigans.

    The “anti-National” vote (Labour, NZF, Greens), on the other hand, has been well over 50% on many occasions (and I think about 60% in 2002). I used to have a spreadsheet with all the MMP elections on it, and the right vote at max is about 47% or something like that.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 19 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. dime (10,222 comments) says:

    “What he means is that there is no natural conservative majority in NZ.”

    yep. too many old people who look back on the “good old days”. thinking that they were provided by the govt, cause there was state houses and the annual family benefit payment! no one had shit.. they were the good old days cause they were young..

    then you have the sacks of crap who have been raised as losers. 2nd/3rd/4th generation scabs.

    add to that the chardonnay socialists, the dudes who feel nothing but guilt for being white, the youngsters who fooleshy vote greens…

    and you get a natural majority.

    luckily, a bunch of em are too lazy to vote.

    this is all paid for by the middle class and the wealthy.

    great country!

    Vote: Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Cunningham (846 comments) says:

    Lindsay Addie you are right. They need to use the upcoming budget to regather the initiative. It’s not panic stations yet but they are starting to lose the momentum.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. gazzmaniac (2,306 comments) says:

    Tom there is a problem for voters like me. I don’t like Labour and certainly don’t like the Greens. I won’t vote for Winston because he knows nothing about economics, or if he does he doesn’t care. I really want to vote for ACT since they most closely represent my values, but I am not going to because I don’t believe in sister fucking and I also don’t want to waste my vote if they don’t win Epsom. I also like the sound of Colin Craig economically – I think a tightarse would be brilliant to have as a finance minister – but I am not religious. So I will probably vote for National, even with the elitist bullshit. What I really want is a party that wants to generally reduce the size of the state and lower taxes, has policies that allow small businesses to grow and prosper (and provisional tax is the biggest threat to small business), generally reduces red tape, promotes freedom of speech, and treats everyone equally regardless of their race. But there is no such party. So I will vote for the party that isn’t exactly what I want but will keep Labour and the Greens out of power.

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. dime (10,222 comments) says:

    National – they need to deal with the conservatives.

    The Maori party will jump ship first chance they get (after spending 100k or so of our money travelling around the country chatting).

    Dunne is nothing but a $^%#* who will jump ship. As long as his pay stays the same and he can use the “i can do more from within govt than from outside it” line.

    ACT! – who knows. Id say Epsom will come to the party, the media will be negative enough to scare potential act voters away as they will think their vote will be wasted. 1 MP.

    Conservatives – the 2-3% will vote for them even if its wasted.

    Throw em abone

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    yep. too many old people who look back on the “good old days”. thinking that they were provided by the govt, cause there was state houses and the annual family benefit payment! no one had shit.. they were the good old days cause they were young.

    Most of those days were had under centrist National governments, before NZ political parties were captured by the far right.

    If the National Party got rid of the ACToids and libertarians, it would be the permanent government of NZ.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 15 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. cas (41 comments) says:

    The thought is appalling but yes they could win. An interesting article from the Sydney morning Herald about Labour’s spend in OZ. Labour hasn’t released its spend policy here yet.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-crisis-governments-only-crisis-is-labors-debt-20140504-zr4c3.html

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    What I really want is a party that wants to generally reduce the size of the state and lower taxes, has policies that allow small businesses to grow and prosper (and provisional tax is the biggest threat to small business), generally reduces red tape, promotes freedom of speech, and treats everyone equally regardless of their race.

    No such party can exist in 21st century NZ, or indeed in the world, on a sustainable basis.

    Big government and high taxes are here to stay, because they make modern capitalism possible. Every single developed country follows this pattern, because it’s the only way to make a modern economy work. It really is. There is no alternative. The US tries not to, but the result is inevitably fraud, waste and dysfunctional government.

    If you want small businesses to grow and prosper, then you need to support a party that stands for the people who do things and make things, and not a party that stands for the interests of people who live off of property investments and financial wheeler dealing. It continues to amaze me that small business owners vote for a party that impoverishes their customer base and which stands for rentiers rather than people who do anything useful. National are never going to abandon the interests of capital, because capital funds the National Party. Small business owners would be better off decamping to Labour and becoming a core constituency of the Labour Party, because they would exercise more power within Labour than they could hope to under National.

    “Red tape” is a feature of modern capitalism. Heavy regulation is required for the system to work at all (this is the case across all capitalist countries – if you want no regulation, go live in a communist country, because they don’t need it – you have no idea of the insane amount of regulations the former communist countries had to pass during the transition to capitalism). The good news is that IT is making it easier for people to comply, so things may go your way no matter who you vote for.

    No NZ Party will impact freedom of speech to any great degree. This is one of the most liberal and tolerant countries in the world, especially when compared with Australia (which is a very censorious culture).

    And Maori are here to stay and politicallly organised, so there’s no hope of getting rid of a lot of the Treaty stuff. C’est la vie.

    That’s my view.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 10 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. kiwigunner (232 comments) says:

    Labour and Greens and NZ First and Mana and Dotcom. Your alternative Government.

    Is this really any scarier than National, Act (read John Banks), Maori, United Future (read Dunne) and possibly NZ First (if required after the election)?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 15 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. ShawnLH (6,707 comments) says:

    gazz,

    “I really want to vote for ACT since they most closely represent my values, but I am not going to because I don’t believe in sister fucking”

    You do realise that the ACT leader was expressing a personal opinion and not ACT policy, right?

    Vote: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. James Stephenson (2,268 comments) says:

    I really want to vote for ACT since they most closely represent my values….snip…also like the sound of Colin Craig economically

    Seriously? I mean *seriously*?!

    Conservatives are: No assett sales, no land sales to “foreigners”and anti free trade deals and you think that ACT most closely represent your values?

    I’d go and have a lie down in a darkened room, if I were you Gazz.

    Vote: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. James Stephenson (2,268 comments) says:

    Is this really any scarier than…

    Yes, lots. Next question.

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. dime (10,222 comments) says:

    “Big government and high taxes are here to stay, because they make modern capitalism possible” and by modern capitalism, you mean capitalism that has been highly fucked with.

    “Heavy regulation is required for the system to work at all” – it really is a blessing! you can see how its helped economies such as california.

    We get it Tom, youre a socialist. good for you.

    Vote: Thumb up 17 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. Julian (133 comments) says:

    Speaking of which – Labour were picketing the Avondale Market yesterday. Given their stance on immigration, I must ask them how they reconcile that against their anti-immigrant views.

    The Greens were selling their bonkers ideas alongside vegetables (seriously).

    Vote: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    We get it Tom, youre a socialist. good for you.

    You can call it what you like, but it’s not going away. Name one country that doesn’t use this system.

    it really is a blessing! you can see how its helped economies such as california.

    You mean how Silicon Valley came about because of big government projects like Polaris?

    California’s problems lie in the fact that it has a dysfunctional political system which incentivises people to rack up costs while preventing them from racking up taxes to pay for them. Most countries don’t have that problem.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 7 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. mjw (401 comments) says:

    Not sure an ACT – United Future – Conservative – NZ First – National coalition is in any way preferable. A five headed monster.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 10 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. Nostalgia-NZ (5,322 comments) says:

    Good old Bill, steady as she goes a man for all seasons.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. James Stephenson (2,268 comments) says:

    Name one country that doesn’t use this system.

    You mean, name one country that doesn’t suffer from the fact that once you elect people to be a government, they inevitably set about acruing the maximum control for themselves?

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  20. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    You mean, name one country that doesn’t suffer from the fact that once you elect people to be a government, they inevitably set about acruing the maximum control for themselves?

    Nonsense.

    Governments have existed and had more power than they now do long before the existence of modern capitalism.

    The truth is that you folks just have no clue about modern societies. You’re like communists, dreaming of something that won’t happen.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 8 You need to be logged in to vote
  21. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (901 comments) says:

    No doubt a Labour-Green-NZ First-Maori-Mana-Dotcom government will be in place September this year. Run out of the country if you can….National is doing all it can to help opposition win this election….

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  22. Akld Commercial Lawyer (166 comments) says:

    I expect that Bill and Steven Joyce have some work to do after the events of the last week.

    That the MSM coverage is so dire – can be little surprise. But a succession of own goals has allowed the MSM to allow the hapless Parker to get off scot free with another fudging of important issues.

    The economic analysis of the VSR announcement pinpoints it as unworkable and Swiss cheese-like.

    I also liked Chapman Tripp’s analysis – as raising issues worth debating but, ultimately, raising more questions than it answers.

    The first of these is the issue of exceptions from compulsion – Labour has so far confirmed that it thinks it would exempt very low earners, as well as the self-employed and business owners. It thinks it will follow the carve outs in Australia. Chapman Tripp point to the need for clarity on a number of related issues. They make a similar comment about the question of contributions holidays.

    It is also noted that VSR changes made in response to economic fluctuations might lead to confusion and calculation errors (noting that the Labour proposal is supposed to apply only to employee (not employer) contributions to KiwiSaver, so it impacts on employees’ take-home pay – but not on employers’ costs.

    There are a number of other points where some of what is proposed is inconsistent with Labour’s previous policy stance. Also, the Labour policy refers to VSR being used to vary employee contributions for all work based savings – but this would be unworkable for defined benefit schemes. Chapman Tripp also say that it would complicate the administration of other non-KiwiSaver schemes and plans (outweighing any potential economic benefits).

    So, we have the potential for an election driven by savings (and other economic) issues – which will be ignored by the MSM. Instead, they will focus on beltway issues and pretend that they are holding the Government to task for political management and allow Labour to campaign on points that are fudged, or unworkable (VSR) or even hot air (Power NZ).

    Ultimately, as the teenagers in my house point out with monotonous frequency, the coverage has become more about the talking heads themselves than about the underlying issues. We deserve better media.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  23. mikenmild (12,443 comments) says:

    I’m still picking a National/Winston coalition of the very willing…

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  24. georgebolwing (1,011 comments) says:

    Bill was not giving sage advise to the audience: like every other senior National and Labour figure from now till the election, he was addressing a group carefully select by a pollster (DPF in this case) with an equally carefully selected message.

    In this case, the group was probably traditional National voters inclined to not vote on the grounds that a victory is assured. The message was clearly “Beware the Jabberwock, my son! The jaws that bite, the claws that catch! Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun. The frumious Bandersnatch!”

    Just as Grant Robertson was on Morning Report today saying one thing over, and over; the government does deals for its mates.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  25. Viking2 (11,685 comments) says:

    Well if they don’t buck up their idea’s and stop appealing to the poor and the useless and start supporting and doing stuff for the centre right and right then that will be there fate.

    English says Labour can will win.
    There fixed that for Bill.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  26. Ed Snack (1,941 comments) says:

    Tom, not sure how to even critique a comment about high taxes making capitalism work, to steal someone else’s phrase, that’s so far out it’s not even wrong. High taxes and Big Government enable crony capitalism writ large, and you are correct to the point where most Western governments are indeed headed down that path, to the oligopoly of the cronies.

    Just for a start, when the US was investing in Polaris it wasn’t a “high tax” country, not in terms of tax per GDP. It has certainly moved in that direction however and in part by “stealth” in that by running up huge deficits taxes will at some point inevitably have to rise to pay for the spending.

    And in NZ there’s no natural governing majority, there’s a nearly natural anti-government majority, which is why we see disparate coalitions being formed. What do Labour, Green, Mana, NZ First, and DCP have in common except the lust for power, really ? Apart that is from wanting to sound compassionate and a desire (like it must be said all governments) to appear generous with other peoples money. Given that the policies espoused by such an alliance is highly likely to actually worsen the economic wellbeing of a majority of NZ’ers, it’s only by pretending that they will actually produce the magic money tree for their supporters that they can expect to gather enough votes to have a shot at forming a government.

    As for the Conservatives, I can’t see why anyone would actually want to vote for them myself. Economically very left wing, socially very right wing, and with a great flaky streak through the middle. They represent the oddball christian sector fairly well, socially conservative, insular, nationalistic, it’s NZ First sans Winnie with a “christian” flavouring thrown in.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  27. RRM (10,104 comments) says:

    He’s correct, scary as that sounds.

    National need to continue to focus on being the party for grown-ups. And highlight the lunacy more…

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  28. wreck1080 (4,001 comments) says:

    English trying to get the couch sitters to head to the polling booth.

    Complacency loses elections.

    Fortunately many labour supporters are on drugs so they won’t bother to vote either.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  29. gazzmaniac (2,306 comments) says:

    “I really want to vote for ACT since they most closely represent my values, but I am not going to because I don’t believe in sister fucking”
    You do realise that the ACT leader was expressing a personal opinion and not ACT policy, right?

    I am aware of that. I also don’t want to waste my vote. And voting is as much about voting for a person as for principles.

    also like the sound of Colin Craig economically

    Seriously? I mean *seriously*?!

    Conservatives are: No assett sales, no land sales to “foreigners”and anti free trade deals and you think that ACT most closely represent your values?

    I’d go and have a lie down in a darkened room, if I were you Gazz.

    I was actually referring to a thing I saw on TV before Christmas about Colin Craig where he said he once stopped and picked up a “perfectly good” couch off the side of the road. I think the country needs a few more politicians like that. That sounds pretty normal and would resonate with a good portion of middle New Zealand – the portion who live in regional areas and really are scratching a living and hate giving money to dipshits who smoke pot and people in Wellington who are simply riding the gravy train.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote