Exports, jobs and wages

May 11th, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

New Zealand’s exports hit $50 billion for the first time ever, Finance Minister revealed in Queenstown today. …

In the hard data department, 84,000 new jobs were created last year. Government spending had also lost a chunk of its importance to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product, meaning private sector earning was on the rise.

”In 2008 government spending was 35 per cent of our GDP,” he said.

”Now that has dropped to 30 per cent, and we want that to be dropping to 26 per cent and 25 per cent in the next six and seven years.”

It would be great to get spending to 25% of GDP. There is a wealth of data showing that economies grow faster if the Government isn’t spending and taxing too high a proportion of the economy.

In the prediction department English weighed in with two sure to prick up voters’ ears: firstly that the average income would rise by $7,500 to $62,000 in the next four years, and that economic growth would increase by 10 per cent in the next three years.

Both sound good.

”In 2008 there were 4,300 people under 20 on a single parent benefit, and figures show each one of those people usually remains on a benefit for 20 years, which equates to about $350,000.

“On the left they might say ‘it’s not your fault’ and give them another $20 per week just to show they care. Today there are 2,800 sole parents under 20 on a benefit. We are dealing with those young people on a case by case basis, and want to say it is not a hopeless situation if you are a parent at 17 – but we want people to have aspirations and be a government that is there to help them achieve.”

That figure that being on a sole parent benefit at under 20 normally means you stay on it for 20 years is shocking. I think the welfare work being done is the most important.

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28 Responses to “Exports, jobs and wages”

  1. jcuk (668 comments) says:

    More work should be done on contraception because ‘saying NO’ doesn’t seem to work like it might have done in the past … with emphasis being on males.

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  2. radvad (755 comments) says:

    But but but………this government is evil because it takes donations at fundraisers that are only “technically” legal.

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  3. thePeoplesFlag (242 comments) says:

    What better way to celebrate mother’s day than with a bit of ACT party fruit loop economics and some solo mum bene-bashing?

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  4. radvad (755 comments) says:

    Of course we can expect both news bulletins tonight to lead with this story tonight. I think I will crack a Tui and enjoy watching it.

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  5. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    Will the government’s share of GDP drop through restraint or by default as we enjoy a period of good growth?

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  6. tom hunter (4,732 comments) says:

    … firstly that the average income would rise by $7,500 to $62,000 in the next four years,

    Yes, yes. This is all good, but here’s the thing: six years of small-ball conservatism have finally managed to start producing results in raising incomes, exports, and shrinking government’s share of the economy – but not by so much that it cannot be undone in a single term of Labour-Green-NZFirst-Mana.

    People want more money now and they will vote for whoever “promises” that. Incrementalism appeals to the small-c conservative mindset but all it does is provide a launchpad for the next solution from the Left.

    All this is happening just in time for Labour-Green to take advantage of the resulting tax revenue, since there are still lots of societal problems to solve, and fortunately all the left-wing institutions and mechanisms that enable that money to be gathered and spent by the state are still in place.

    Thanks Bill!

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  7. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    I don’t think there is any political appetite for the kinds of ‘reform’ you would favour, tom. National is solidly for the status quo. Vote Labour for any change.

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  8. OneTrack (3,020 comments) says:

    mike – what sort of change do you have in mind – total economic collapse once Norman gets his hands on the levers of power and the printers start running?

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  9. Kea (12,396 comments) says:

    Why oh why do we feign surprise every time we see it confirmed that paying women to spread their legs and spit out a meal ticket results in single parents on a benefit ? The reason they – only – stay on it for 20 years has more to do with female physiology than it does any other reason.

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  10. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    One Track
    I think it more likely that a Labour government would adress longer term structural issues – rising costs of health and superannuation among other things. If you think about it, Labour has always been the party of change and National the party of the status quo. Ergo, if you want change vote Labour.

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  11. Don the Kiwi (1,706 comments) says:

    mm.

    I’ve never seen such bullshit before (well, maybe – but always from stupid lefties). The only change that a Labour led government will bring is more welfare dependency, a downward spiralling of the economy and aspiration to progress, and more snivelling to our Maori overlords.

    Wake up. The best thing for all people, is to be self dependent; it raises self esteem, dignity, and a sense of purpose for their lives.

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  12. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    Well, I happen to think you’re a fuckwit actually Don, a racist and homophobic one at that. Your argument, if it could be called such, is pretty puerile:’Labour bad, bad”.

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  13. thor42 (971 comments) says:

    Govt spending at 25% of GDP is still too high.

    The government should axe a number of departments.
    Women’s Affairs, Human Rights Commission, Te Puni Kokiri, Pacific Island Affairs.
    Combine that with axing Working for Families and phase out the DPB (no new applications for it) and you’d be well on the way to getting towards 20% of GDP or lower.

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  14. Don the Kiwi (1,706 comments) says:

    Bravo mm.

    You have waved the flag of cultural marxism – I am a RACIST and a HOMOPHOBE – all in one brief sentence.

    Homophobe – a word coined by the left wing to deride and ridicule anyone who disagrees with them; Racist is not much better. Disagree with a leftie, and this is the their response.

    OTOH, being called a fuckwit – in the context of the comment – could well be taken as a sign of respect and submission ;-)
    and should – perhaps – be worn as a badge of honour. :-)

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  15. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    Ha ha ‘cultural marxism’. That hoary and meaningless epithat.

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  16. dime (9,856 comments) says:

    Dimes take – win this election. go into 2017 offering a tax cut.

    chances of winning that election? slim.

    labour/greens win it will be “spending hasnt increased in 9 years under national, its time to give something back to struggling kiwis”. dimes tax rate goes through the roof and we look back on 9 years of national as “meh”.

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  17. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    Yep, you will wonder why you ever voted for them at all.

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  18. Viking2 (11,413 comments) says:

    Actually Don MM is quite correct. Labour are the Party of change and we can see from this govt. National just tinker with the changes. Its always been that way except when Muldoon thought he knew best and look what he did for everyone.
    Interesting watching Marilyn Warring this morning. If you didn’t go watch it.

    If ever there was a Cabinet of limp wristed men sooks it was Muldoons last one. It took a very brave young National woman to get rid of the arsewipe. The men were too busy holding onto their seats and income. Deserved all they got.
    Note here that Peters and Banks were in that group. Haven’t done fuck all since, either of them except feather their own nests..

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  19. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    It always makes me laugh when we see figures like “NZ hits exports of $50 million for the first time ever” – as if its something extraordinary.

    The fact that prices increase means of course the dollar value is going to increase – but are we actually exporting more, or are the goods just priced higher – which are two completely different things?

    And – how are we going with imports? If we are buying more from overseas than ever before, then surely that is not a good thing when both are taken into perspective?

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  20. tom hunter (4,732 comments) says:

    Yep, you will wonder why you ever voted for them at all.

    Well of course you’re on record here as saying of Helen – “I miss her” – but by 2008 even lefties like Dim had said that she’d “gone feral”.

    It really is as one smart-ass commentator said of the 2012 US election – that it was less about choosing the lesser of two evils than the evil of two lessers.

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  21. Kea (12,396 comments) says:

    milky, the (self declared) defender of the proletariat and deceny:

    I happen to think you’re a fuckwit actually Don, a racist and homophobic one at that

    Don The Kiwi, a regular bloke:

    The best thing for all people, is to be self dependent; it raises self esteem, dignity, and a sense of purpose for their lives.

    Compare and consider who you would want controlling our country gentle readers :)

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  22. calendar girl (1,216 comments) says:

    Judith: “The fact that prices increase means of course the dollar value is going to increase …”

    Yes, Judith, on a two-dimensional view that’s correct. But Labour and its acolytes have been insisting for the last couple of years that exports are being sacrificed to a high exchange rate for the NZ$.

    Add the third dimension of a high NZ$ (bringing lower-priced imports into NZ) to Bill English’s $50m revalation, and the economic impact is even more impressive than it appears on the surface, not less so.

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  23. Don the Kiwi (1,706 comments) says:

    Viking2 (10,853 comments) says:
    May 11th, 2014 at 11:58 am

    “Actually Don MM is quite correct. Labour are the Party of change and we can see from this govt. National just tinker with the changes. Its always been that way except when Muldoon thought he knew best and look what he did for everyone.”

    I think that is only in a small part true – who could say, for example, that the introduction of welfare and state housing in the 1930’s was not a good thing? However, the way welfare has been expanded and developed ever since – mainly by Labour – has been IMO a very bad thing.
    And I believe that Norman Kirk’s superannuation scheme back in the early 1970’s was excellent, and Muldoon canned it when he got into power, as a bribie to the electorate. I intensely disliked Muldoon – he was a bigger socialist that Bill Rowling.
    But I think most of Labour’s policies generally are bad – overdone in the social area which tend to become abused, and rank incompetence in the economic area. Just look at the mismanagement under the Clark government. And “Working for Families” ? Poor economics and a bribe to the middle class, but which exemplifies most of Labour’s actions.
    Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

    Edit:And once some social handout is put in place, it becomes a part of what is expected, and is very difficult to take away – hence the tinkering.

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  24. Bogusnews (473 comments) says:

    To a certain extent MM is right in that Clarkes labour did bring in lots of changes and did spend much more on health. Unfortunately, their efforts were completely disastrous. In 1990 we were spending 7.5bil on health and had 100K people on the waiting list. After the first six years of Labour we were spending 13Bil on health and had 180K on the waiting list!

    I remember asking several health professionals how on earth you can double health spending and similtaneously double the waiting list. Regrettably, it appeared they had the typical lefty mindset that just throwing more resource – any resource – would improve things. So we ended up with 12000 managers and administrators in health, one for every hospital bed.

    A similar story can be told for all the govt departments and the terrifying thing is that Labour shows no sign of learning from their errors.

    It will be a tragedy if now that National has gotten NZ back on the right track, Labour comes along to stuff the whole thing up again.

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  25. slijmbal (1,230 comments) says:

    “”In 2008 government spending was 35 per cent of our GDP,” he said.

    ”Now that has dropped to 30 per cent, and we want that to be dropping to 26 per cent and 25 per cent in the next six and seven years.”

    Where is he getting those figures from? I think he’s cheating a bit and using core crown expenses.

    Total government expenses are more like 47% of GDP I believe. We’re pretty much in Scandinavian territory still.

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  26. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    What, Bill English lie about the economy? Surely not?

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  27. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    I make total government spending about 44% of GDP.

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  28. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    So, wages are rising at 10% will we see tax thresholds rise at the same rate?

    Pensions and benefits go up every year, i’m voting for the first party that ties tax thresholds to rises in expenditure

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