iPredict on electorates

May 9th, 2014 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

Just had a look at current prices and probabilities for electorate contests. Here’s what they are showing from most safe to most marginal.

  1. Bay of Plenty – 98.3% National hold
  2. Botany – 98.3% National hold
  3. Coromandel – 98.3% National hold
  4. North Shore – 98.3% National hold
  5. Mangere – 98.1% Labour hold
  6. Taranaki King-Country – 98.1% National hold
  7. Helensville – 98.0% National hold
  8. Christchurch East – 97.3% Labour hold
  9. Rimutaka – 97.3% Labour hold
  10. Waitaki – 97.3% National hold
  11. Whangarei – 96.3% national hold
  12. Tamaki – 95.8% National hold
  13. Mana – 95.3% Labour hold
  14. Manukau East – 95.3% Labour hold
  15. Northcote  – 95.3% National hold
  16. Nelson – 94.8% National hold
  17. Selwyn – 94.8% National hold
  18. Taupo – 94.8% National hold
  19. Clutha-Southland – 94.3% National hold
  20. Dunedin North – 94.3% Labour hold
  21. Kelston – 94.3% Labour win
  22. Rangitata – 94.3% National hold
  23. Rongotai – 94.3% Labour hold
  24. New Lynn – 93.7% Labour hold
  25. Te Tai Tonga – 93.7% Labour hold
  26. Ikaroa-Rawhiti – 93.1% Labour hold
  27. Tukituki – 93.1% National hold
  28. Hunua – 92.4% National hold
  29. Manurewa – 92.4% Labour hold
  30. Northland – 92.4% National hold
  31. Papakura – 92.4% National hold
  32. Whanganui – 92.4% National hold
  33. Hauraki-Waikato – 91.7% Labour hold
  34. New Plymouth – 91.7% National hold
  35. Wellington Central – 91.7% National Labour hold
  36. East Coast – 90.9% National hold
  37. Invercargill – 90.9% National hold
  38. Mt Albert – 90.9% Labour hold
  39. Mt Roskill – 90.9% Labour hold
  40. Rangitikei – 90.9% National hold
  41. Ilam – 90.0% National hold
  42. Kaikoura – 90.0% National hold
  43. Otaki – 90.0% National hold
  44. Wigram – 90.0% Labour hold
  45. Dunedin South – 89.1% Labour hold
  46. Rodney – 89.1% National hold
  47. Waikato – 89.1% National hold
  48. Auckland Central – 88.3% National hold
  49. Pakuranga – 88.1% National hold
  50. Tamaki Makaurau – 87.0% Labour win
  51. Hutt South – 85.8% Labour hold
  52. Palmerston North – 85.8% Labour hold
  53. Christchurch Central – 81.8% Labour win
  54. West Coast-Tasman – 81.8% Labour hold
  55. Maungakiekie – 80.2% National hold
  56. Tauranga – 80.2% National hold
  57. Te Tai Hauauru – 80.2% Labour win
  58. Te Tai Tokerau – 80.2% Mana hold
  59. Upper Harbour – 80.2% National win
  60. Hamilton East – 80.0% National hold
  61. Ohariu – 78.6% United hold
  62. Epsom 73.1% ACT hold
  63. Hamilton West – 73.1% National hold
  64. East Coast Bays – 71.7% National hold
  65. Rotorua – 71.1% National hold
  66. Wairarapa – 71.1% National hold
  67. Napier – 64.6% Labour win
  68. Te Atatu – 59.9% Labour hold
  69. Waiariki – 59.9% Maori Party hold
  70. Port Hills – 59.8% Labour hold
  71. Waimakariri – 52.5% Labour win
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21 Responses to “iPredict on electorates”

  1. greenjacket (486 comments) says:

    “35.Wellington Central – 91.7% National hold”
    Really?

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  2. Nick R (522 comments) says:

    iPredict suggests Wellington Central is a National hold? That will be news to Grant Robertson!
    How many other stuff ups are there in here I wonder?

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  3. Huevon (228 comments) says:

    I think it should be *Labour* holds Wellington Central.

    Still, if National goes ahead with running the Baby Murderer as its candidate, that might swing the vote. Certainly is no shortage of socialist libtards in this electorate.

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  4. spanish_tudor (84 comments) says:

    So it looks like Labour might win six electorates it doesn’t currently have. Add in a couple of other upsets (such as Te Tai Tokerau), and the Labour Party list is looking like a pretty unsafe hiding place for Labour’s best and fairest.

    What likelihood an overhang if Labour win too many electorate seats versus party vote?

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  5. Shazzadude (531 comments) says:

    Yes, we get it, DPF accidentally put National rather than Labour there.

    Electorate stocks I think have value:

    East Coast to be won by Labour-Boundary changes favour Labour with Kawerau moving to this electorate, Tolley was one of a select few National incumbents to suffer a reduction in their majority, and one of Labour’s campaign promises is to reinstate the Napier-Gisborne railway line. Worth a shot at an 11 to 1 return.

    Shorting Dunne to win Ohariu-I think Dunne struggles. Losing the Western Hutt hills hurts Dunne’s slim majority, and IMO Labour have improved by swapping a gay child-hating man for a mother with a young family. This is more favourable than buying up the Labour stock in case Dunne decides not to stand at all, making National the red hot favourites. At 78 cents, this is slightly better than a 4 to 1 return.

    National to hold Rotorua-Tamati Coffey might be able to reduce McClay’s majority, but there’s no way he wins Rotorua, with the boundary changes that saw the loss of Kawerau and the gain of Te Puke being the final nail in the coffin. At 71 cents, it’s a 40% return.

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  6. horacethebear (5 comments) says:

    I reckon it’s pretty accurate on the whole, it’s an efficient open market! But the interesting thing is when you overlay these predictions with expected party votes based on new boundaries and the level of split voting in some areas will have to be rather large or some very bad or good candidates! Wigram at 90% for labour, when national was in papers crowing that wood will lose I doubt it, on the other hand heavily redrawn seats that will heavily vote national but appear to choose a labour candidate but very strong Nat party votes on revised boundaries seem weird! Eg Napier! But also others Chch East, Waimakiriri, Hutt south, Palmerston North as all examples where there appears to be on paper rather large disparities in party leanings to expected candidates parties.

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  7. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    It would appear to predict the death of the maori party

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  8. goldnkiwi (1,612 comments) says:

    Amazing that a National Government can get anything done in such a Labour stronghold as Wellington seems to be, perhaps the next National government should move the Beehive somewhere else ;).

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  9. smttc (767 comments) says:

    “It would appear to predict the death of the maori party.”

    Good riddance. They are an opportunistic party.

    They have no real belief that siding with National is best for their people’s cause.

    Look at their voting record in the house.

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  10. Mobile Michael (473 comments) says:

    Have the Nats picked Hitler and Labour picked Mother Theresa in Napier? What am I missing here?

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  11. Shazzadude (531 comments) says:

    Napier is based on Stuart Nash’s popularity there-one of the big surprises last election was Stuart Nash slashing Chris Tremain’s majority by over 5000 votes, despite the vote swinging against Labour nationally.

    It’s believed Chris Tremain chose to quit because internal polling had him trailing Nash (Whaleoil alleges this), and if he can beat Tremain, he can certainly beat a newbie.

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  12. peterwn (3,333 comments) says:

    goldnkiwi – Wellington Central is not a Labour stronghold. Labour scored third with the party vote. The Greenies vote for Grant for fear of splitting the left vote and letting National in. I am surprised that Russell Norman has not fronted up to Labour and demand that Grant stands to one side.

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  13. Fisiani (1,052 comments) says:

    Wellington Central could be a surprise. Grant Robertson has done nothing in six years and the Greens have an intelligent candidate in James Shaw but National have the fast rising Paul Foster Bell who raised the party vote to a record high. He was the star of the Aro Valley meeting and has a much higher profile this time.

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  14. Shazzadude (531 comments) says:

    Green voters love Grant Robertson, so I can’t see them shifting. James Shaw will likely get in on the list this time.

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  15. coge (189 comments) says:

    Otaki 90%. Surprised how blue this place has become.

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  16. horacethebear (5 comments) says:

    Really fisani explain how an increase in 500 party votes in 2011 over 2008 in Wellington Central was so amazing? Rimutakas Nat candidate got more party votes than bell… Every electorate in Christchurch did heaps better than that in 2011 vs 2008 and two being Chch Central And East had the two biggest swings in party votes in NZ each gaining more than twice in number than that and far more in % terms… That was what won National govt. It seems that the view that it is the only the party votes that matter gets forgotten by some! There are too many MPs that forget that.

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  17. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    It would make my day to see the grinning fat fairy dumped . . . he would then need to sponge off Alf, as he would be unable to find a job anywhere, unless he goes to GWRC with the rest of the failed socialist leeches, one of them a felon.

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  18. Samuel Smith (276 comments) says:

    The Tory-run i-predict is not known for its accuracy.

    It’s like taking a punt on a dud horse you own a share in. Or betting on David Tua to beat Lennix Lewis. People with money think with their hearts not their heads.

    Davis will beat Hone; Sykes will beat Flavell, Mackey will be Tolley; Coffey will beat McClay; Goldsmith will beat Seymour/Banks.

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  19. Tauhei Notts (1,687 comments) says:

    National only 89.1% in Waikato?
    John Key could sack Bronagh and move in with Grant Robertson and National would still win Waikato.

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  20. adze (2,130 comments) says:

    Samuel Smith – people who keep their money think with their heads. People who lose money think with their hearts.

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  21. Shazzadude (531 comments) says:

    Samuel, why not try and make some easy cash?

    I’ve made quite a bit of money off right-wingers on ipredict either betting with their heart, or deliberately trying to manipulate the market.

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