iPredict on electorates

Just had a look at current prices and probabilities for electorate contests. Here’s what they are showing from most safe to most marginal.

  1. Bay of Plenty – 98.3% National hold
  2. Botany – 98.3% National hold
  3. Coromandel – 98.3% National hold
  4. North Shore – 98.3% National hold
  5. Mangere – 98.1% Labour hold
  6. Taranaki King-Country – 98.1% National hold
  7. Helensville – 98.0% National hold
  8. Christchurch East – 97.3% Labour hold
  9. Rimutaka – 97.3% Labour hold
  10. Waitaki – 97.3% National hold
  11. Whangarei – 96.3% national hold
  12. Tamaki – 95.8% National hold
  13. Mana – 95.3% Labour hold
  14. Manukau East – 95.3% Labour hold
  15. Northcote  – 95.3% National hold
  16. Nelson – 94.8% National hold
  17. Selwyn – 94.8% National hold
  18. Taupo – 94.8% National hold
  19. Clutha-Southland – 94.3% National hold
  20. Dunedin North – 94.3% Labour hold
  21. Kelston – 94.3% Labour win
  22. Rangitata – 94.3% National hold
  23. Rongotai – 94.3% Labour hold
  24. New Lynn – 93.7% Labour hold
  25. Te Tai Tonga – 93.7% Labour hold
  26. Ikaroa-Rawhiti – 93.1% Labour hold
  27. Tukituki – 93.1% National hold
  28. Hunua – 92.4% National hold
  29. Manurewa – 92.4% Labour hold
  30. Northland – 92.4% National hold
  31. Papakura – 92.4% National hold
  32. Whanganui – 92.4% National hold
  33. Hauraki-Waikato – 91.7% Labour hold
  34. New Plymouth – 91.7% National hold
  35. Wellington Central – 91.7% National Labour hold
  36. East Coast – 90.9% National hold
  37. Invercargill – 90.9% National hold
  38. Mt Albert – 90.9% Labour hold
  39. Mt Roskill – 90.9% Labour hold
  40. Rangitikei – 90.9% National hold
  41. Ilam – 90.0% National hold
  42. Kaikoura – 90.0% National hold
  43. Otaki – 90.0% National hold
  44. Wigram – 90.0% Labour hold
  45. Dunedin South – 89.1% Labour hold
  46. Rodney – 89.1% National hold
  47. Waikato – 89.1% National hold
  48. Auckland Central – 88.3% National hold
  49. Pakuranga – 88.1% National hold
  50. Tamaki Makaurau – 87.0% Labour win
  51. Hutt South – 85.8% Labour hold
  52. Palmerston North – 85.8% Labour hold
  53. Christchurch Central – 81.8% Labour win
  54. West Coast-Tasman – 81.8% Labour hold
  55. Maungakiekie – 80.2% National hold
  56. Tauranga – 80.2% National hold
  57. Te Tai Hauauru – 80.2% Labour win
  58. Te Tai Tokerau – 80.2% Mana hold
  59. Upper Harbour – 80.2% National win
  60. Hamilton East – 80.0% National hold
  61. Ohariu – 78.6% United hold
  62. Epsom 73.1% ACT hold
  63. Hamilton West – 73.1% National hold
  64. East Coast Bays – 71.7% National hold
  65. Rotorua – 71.1% National hold
  66. Wairarapa – 71.1% National hold
  67. Napier – 64.6% Labour win
  68. Te Atatu – 59.9% Labour hold
  69. Waiariki – 59.9% Maori Party hold
  70. Port Hills – 59.8% Labour hold
  71. Waimakariri – 52.5% Labour win

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