iPredict on electorates

Just had a look at current iPredict prices and probabilities for electorate contests. Here’s what they are showing from most safe to most marginal.

1. Bay of Plenty – 98.3% National hold
2. Botany – 98.3% National hold
3. Coromandel – 98.3% National hold
4. North Shore – 98.3% National hold
5. Mangere – 98.1% Labour hold
6. Taranaki King-Country – 98.1% National hold
7. Helensville – 98.0% National hold
8. Christchurch East – 97.3% Labour hold
9. Rimutaka – 97.3% Labour hold
10. Waitaki – 97.3% National hold
11. Whangarei – 96.3% national hold
12. Tamaki – 95.8% National hold
13. Mana – 95.3% Labour hold
14. Manukau East – 95.3% Labour hold
15. Northcote  – 95.3% National hold
16. Nelson – 94.8% National hold
17. Selwyn – 94.8% National hold
18. Taupo – 94.8% National hold
19. Clutha-Southland – 94.3% National hold
20. Dunedin North – 94.3% Labour hold
21. Kelston – 94.3% Labour win
22. Rangitata – 94.3% National hold
23. Rongotai – 94.3% Labour hold
24. New Lynn – 93.7% Labour hold
25. Te Tai Tonga – 93.7% Labour hold
26. Ikaroa-Rawhiti – 93.1% Labour hold
27. Tukituki – 93.1% National hold
28. Hunua – 92.4% National hold
29. Manurewa – 92.4% Labour hold
30. Northland – 92.4% National hold
31. Papakura – 92.4% National hold
32. Whanganui – 92.4% National hold
33. Hauraki-Waikato – 91.7% Labour hold
34. New Plymouth – 91.7% National hold
35. Wellington Central – 91.7% National Labour hold
36. East Coast – 90.9% National hold
37. Invercargill – 90.9% National hold
38. Mt Albert – 90.9% Labour hold
39. Mt Roskill – 90.9% Labour hold
40. Rangitikei – 90.9% National hold
41. Ilam – 90.0% National hold
42. Kaikoura – 90.0% National hold
43. Otaki – 90.0% National hold
44. Wigram – 90.0% Labour hold
45. Dunedin South – 89.1% Labour hold
46. Rodney – 89.1% National hold
47. Waikato – 89.1% National hold
48. Auckland Central – 88.3% National hold
49. Pakuranga – 88.1% National hold
50. Tamaki Makaurau – 87.0% Labour win
51. Hutt South – 85.8% Labour hold
52. Palmerston North – 85.8% Labour hold
53. Christchurch Central – 81.8% Labour win
54. West Coast-Tasman – 81.8% Labour hold
55. Maungakiekie – 80.2% National hold
56. Tauranga – 80.2% National hold
57. Te Tai Hauauru – 80.2% Labour win
58. Te Tai Tokerau – 80.2% Mana hold
59. Upper Harbour – 80.2% National win
60. Hamilton East – 80.0% National hold
61. Ohariu – 78.6% United hold
62. Epsom 73.1% ACT hold
63. Hamilton West – 73.1% National hold
64. East Coast Bays – 71.7% National hold
65. Rotorua – 71.1% National hold
66. Wairarapa – 71.1% National hold
67. Napier – 64.6% Labour win
68. Te Atatu – 59.9% Labour hold
69. Waiariki – 59.9% Maori Party hold
70. Port Hills – 59.8% Labour hold
71. Waimakariri – 52.5% Labour win