Still fairly early days

May 26th, 2014 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

Mr Cunliffe, who has struggled to match the modest poll showings by his predecessor David Shearer, said it was “still fairly early days” and “this is going to bounce right back again”. “The only poll that counts is the one on election day,” he said.

There are 117 days until the election. became leader 253 days ago. Not sure how you call that early days.

Patrick Gower blogs:

David Cunliffe needs to walk into ’s “war-room” right now and re-name it “the panic station”.

Labour’s big fear right now will be its vote collapsing completely.

Labour will be worried that voters decide it can’t win – and instead vote for New Zealand First, the Greens or just stay at home.

Last night’s 3 News/Reid Research poll has National on 50.3 percent and Labour on 29.5 percent.

John Key was on 43.2 percent and Cunliffe 9.8 percent as preferred Prime Minister

Scorelines of 50-29 and 43-9 – on the rugby pitch, that’s what you call a thrashing.

In our first poll of the year, Cunliffe could have been Prime Minister. Now he is polling worse than David Shearer is when Labour threw him out.

Labour is suddenly in serious strife.

Let’s look at how things were in 2002, 2005 and 2008, four months before an election.

In 2008 National was 18% ahead of Labour four months out, and John Key was at 38% for Preferred Prime Minister.

In 2005 National was at 39%, just 5% behind Labour four months out. Don Brash was at 20% for Preferred Prime Minister

Interesting in 2002, National was at 32% four months out from the 2002 election. Bill English was at 14% for Preferred Prime Minister.

There is the potential for the Greens and/or NZ First to do very well this election.

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42 Responses to “Still fairly early days”

  1. georgebolwing (757 comments) says:

    I am waiting to see how John Armstrong explains his extraordinary “Labour starting to look like contender” article given these polls.

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  2. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,873 comments) says:

    gbw

    Quite simple, really. He most likely was told what to write by the paper’s National Party hating editor.

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  3. Rich Prick (1,657 comments) says:

    “Labour starting to look like contender”

    I suppose any 100 pound weakling can step into the ring, if that’s what a contender is.

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  4. Cunningham (836 comments) says:

    I hope that they lose miserably and finally get the message that this country needs stability not crazy experiments like NZ Power.

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  5. Colville (2,242 comments) says:

    Labour probably need to hit 20% in this election for them to finally sack 10 or so deadbeats that should have been gone in 2009.

    It would be good for NZ politics if it happened.

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  6. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Yes, it is very early days repeats the third-class lawyer Micky Savage, faithful minion servant of and advisor to David Cunliffe.

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  7. I Say Look Here (56 comments) says:

    Absolutely, John Armstrong should be feeling most embarrassed right now. That was an article from an alternate state of consciousness, surely.

    A political party in chaos makes a couple of moves which are slightly less ridiculous than usual, and all of a sudden they’re primed and ready to govern?

    Is it possible for a journalist to wipe out his professional credibility utterly in one column?

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  8. geoff3012 (66 comments) says:

    I’m getting the feeling that the Labour vote will collapse like National did in 2002 and will go to Winnie the befuddled and the Green Taliban….

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  9. YesWeDid (1,048 comments) says:

    Does it need to be pointed out that National were polling at 50%+ before the last election and ended up with a 1 seat majority?

    Patrick Gower is after headlines not reasoned analysis, ‘panic’ is never the solution to any problem, ever.

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  10. Harriet (4,758 comments) says:

    Rudd got knifed in the back with a much higher polling – so too did Gillard.

    Cunliffe is going to get hung, drawn, and then have his head cut off.

    Oh hang on……….Jones is leaving!

    Cunliffe will stay as leader.

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  11. OTGO (536 comments) says:

    The polls are testament to the fact that the National Party have moved so far to the left that they have eaten up all the votes that used to go to the Labour Party. Great for the Nat politicians but not so great for NZ.

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  12. dime (9,793 comments) says:

    “Does it need to be pointed out that National were polling at 50%+ before the last election and ended up with a 1 seat majority?”

    well gee, when you put it like that. id almost rather be labour than national..

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  13. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    It’s all about likely coalitions. Luckily for National, they’ll have NZ First in the back pocket.

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  14. s.russell (1,589 comments) says:

    This is why Winston is going all jests blazing against National. He realises that many voters on the left are looking for a home – and many of them are NOT sympathetic to the Greens. He is positioning himself to benefit from a Labour collapse in 2014 in the same way he benefited from the National collapse in 2002. And while his brain may be going a bit soggy these days, he can churn out stump speeches and standard attack lines on auto-pilot. Only sharp voters will realise he is now quite gaga and sharp voters would never vote for NZ First anyway.

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  15. lolitasbrother (621 comments) says:

    it will be a landsllide, come on Murray McCully give your seat to Craig

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  16. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    If it will be a landslide then there is no need for National to throw any bone for Colin Craig.

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  17. Harriet (4,758 comments) says:

    “…..If it will be a landslide then there is no need for National to throw any bone for Colin Craig….”

    National know they have to have the Conservatives pissing out of the tent than into it.

    National have not decreased the size of the public service down from the 47% increase that comrade Hulun gave us. But they’ve kept making everyone pay for it – and that’s a fucken lot of 15cents in every dollar that wage earners spend!!!!!

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  18. Rich Prick (1,657 comments) says:

    “Rudd got knifed in the back with a much higher polling – so too did Gillard.”

    Yes, but NZ Labour’s draw is full of spoons.

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  19. wikiriwhis business (3,883 comments) says:

    let’s just agree to agree.

    National will get a third term, the electorate will tire of them and Labour will win by a small margin 2017.

    No biggy.

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  20. Ross12 (1,373 comments) says:

    I would not like Labour to get thrashed by too much because that would probably mean the Greens would increase their share of the vote. Even though they as bad as each other, I’d prefer Cunliffe to Norman any day of the week.

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  21. burt (8,183 comments) says:

    Colville

    Labour probably need to hit 20% in this election for them to finally sack 10 or so deadbeats that should have been gone in 2009.

    It would be good for NZ politics if it happened.

    I couldn’t agree more. They should have cleared the hacks out when NZ’s first retrospectively validated PM was told to take her guaranteed to fail policies and run away to a place where her self serving nature would serve her well without damaging NZ.

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  22. stigie (1,056 comments) says:

    “Cunliffe will stay as leader.”

    I reckon Robertson will be leader after the election, then we will see sweet Alfie coming out from hiding behind those bar tables !~

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  23. Redbaiter (8,255 comments) says:

    If I was any leader of any party, I would not commission one poll.

    I would just do what I think is right, and if that is not good enough for the voters, then fuck it.

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  24. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    At least Reddy has sufficient insight to realise that NO ONE would vote for a party led by him.

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  25. Judith (8,531 comments) says:

    @ mikenmild (9,528 comments) says:
    May 26th, 2014 at 3:55 pm

    I reckon if he called his party “none of the above” he’d get quite a few votes – including mine.

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  26. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    If Robertson becomes leader, will he bring back the delicate Ginga Hughes? Will he pardon past offences against naive interns?

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  27. Harriet (4,758 comments) says:

    “…..At least Reddy has sufficient insight to realise that NO ONE would vote for a party led by him….”

    LOL……..I would vote for him Milky.

    Infact, I think Rebaiter should stand for Mayor of Auckland as over a 3rd of them are Singaporian – more or less. And that’s just the Asians.

    Lots of others in Auckland are conservative minded also – given that most people think Len is an unrestrained pervert.

    I can see the day very soon when conservatives sweep to power across NZ.

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  28. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    If you can see that in the future you should get your eyes tested, Harriet.

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  29. dime (9,793 comments) says:

    id vote for red over a weak as piss mikey anyday.

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  30. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (868 comments) says:

    I still believe, the pig of the system we have called MMP will trip us up. So it is better for uncle Key to line up ACT, UF and Conservatives. This will ensure he can have Maori party as Option B and in the worst case Winston First as Option C.

    Cunliffe has many friends – toxic Greens, Mana, FatCon and also Maori party and NZ First……

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  31. Zapper (1,003 comments) says:

    milky is right. NZ has too many idiots like him for the conservatives to make headway

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  32. nasska (11,092 comments) says:

    There’s obviously a few here who write Cuckooland on the back of envelopes. NZ is a representative democracy & we elect MPs to represent us…..not lead us through hell to make believe versions of paradise that exists only in their imaginations.

    MMP was the greatest disaster to befall this country……accountability has gone down the toilet & niche parties catering for the certifiably mad demand accommodation or they’ll throw their toys out of the cot.

    Beam me up!

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  33. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    What MMP has not changed is the overall politcal stability of the National/Labour duopoly. MMP has just meant a bit more craziness around the edges.

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  34. Redbaiter (8,255 comments) says:

    “Beam me up!”

    You said yesterday that NZ had drifted to the left pretty constantly over the last few decades and it was a good thing.

    Make your mind up cuckoo.

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  35. Reid (16,183 comments) says:

    Whale made an excellent observation a few weeks ago where he suggested that Winston is aiming for the Liabore stay-at-homes that have been the focus of Liabore’s strategy.

    He suggested these are the Labour people who are completely turned off and turned away by the sisterhood and the current cabal of leftist morons. They’re the people who are the small business owners, the blue collars, etc etc. They won’t ever vote conservative but Winston is, by comparison, a viable alternative to them.

    What they were looking for in Cunliffe was for him to give them (the sisterhood et al) a bit of a kicking but his be-all-things-to-all-people has so far not produced any results in that direction. I noted in the poll that scored them, 17% were undecided. That’s fairly significant even with a 3.1% margin of error. And it wouldn’t be too surprising to find that the group I referred to is a large part of that.

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  36. OneTrack (2,966 comments) says:

    “Labour’s big fear right now will be its vote collapsing completely.”

    They deserve it to collapse completely. It might help shake them out of the alternate reality they seem to be living in.

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  37. OneTrack (2,966 comments) says:

    mike – “It’s all about likely coalitions. Luckily for National, they’ll have NZ First in the back pocket.”

    Nobody believes that mike. Tell the War Room you need some different fud.

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  38. nasska (11,092 comments) says:

    ….”You said yesterday that NZ had drifted to the left pretty constantly over the last few decades and it was a good thing.”…..

    I said that NZ had drifted left, that National had moved with it & “that” was a good thing.

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  39. OneTrack (2,966 comments) says:

    ross12 – “Even though they as bad as each other, I’d prefer Cunliffe to Norman any day of the week.”

    And what makes you think that Russel and Metiria won’t just run roughshod over Cunliffe and do what they want anyway?

    More taxes? Of course Russel. You want a new ministry of Green things? Of course Metiria.

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  40. Reid (16,183 comments) says:

    It might help shake them out of the alternate reality they seem to be living in.

    But they can’t be wrong OT, because they’re, apparently, “advanced thinkers.” (Apparently) Plus they’re apparently, the only ones who weally weally weally care. I mean, what’s not to like?

    Therefore, the only possible conclusion (to them), is: keep doing more of the same thing, only harder, and the rest of the electorate will catch on to the terrific humanity of it all, and the hated Key will be in the dustbin where he’s always belonged.

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  41. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    Has anyone noticed that poor old Armstrong is not looking awfully well in his latest mugshot? On the other hand Rudders is looking ten years younger! :)

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  42. Warren Murray (298 comments) says:

    Looking back to 2002 sends a shiver up the spine of any National supporters, evidently its support collapsed in that four month interval – will the same happen to Labour in 2014? In 2002 The minor parties really benefitted from National’s loss. Winston First reached double digits, United got a major chunk and the Greens also went up. Strangely, Act’s share of the vote didn’t change much.

    If the same happened in 2014, Labour might console itself that the voters will return. But if they migrate to Labour’s biggest rival, the Greens, they might stay there.

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