TV polls

May 25th, 2014 at 6:59 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at curiablog the results of the One News Colmar Brunton poll and the 3 News Reid Research poll.

They are very close to each other. What they have in common is:

  • National up significantly
  • Labour down
  • National above 50%
  • Labour on or below 30%
  • NZ First close to or above the 5% threshold
  • National around 10% ahead of Labour/Greens combined
  • Cunliffe still lower than David Shearer was for Preferred Prime Minister

There’s now only 118 days until the election.

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125 Responses to “TV polls”

  1. dime (10,132 comments) says:

    its ok, once people get to see more of cunliffe and they get to know him, labour will jump up…

    conservatives on 2.5% in one poll. national need to give him a seat.

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  2. lolitasbrother (751 comments) says:

    I wouldn’t mind if we could switch some NZ First votes to Conservative, I think I understand the joke Dime, can you take a punt and say where we put Craig, it is time to put the pressure on

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  3. David Garrett (7,559 comments) says:

    dime: I assume you are being sarcastic? You are far too smart to make that comment about Cunners other than tongue in cheek..

    I think the jury is still well and truly out on the Conservatives…Craig seems to have a great knack of saying stupid things…and not even realising they are stupid (man on the moon; “they” may be poisoning us with contrails; for some reason the dosing being done during the day so everyone can see them…)

    I would also be interested in which seat Nats could give Craig…not a lot of options given McCully and Bennet’s attitude…

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  4. Keeping Stock (10,440 comments) says:

    Three rogue polls in a week? Oh dear ;-)

    But I’d love to be a fly on the wall in the War Room tomorrow. There’s going to be some serious yelling going on.

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  5. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (895 comments) says:

    Labour morons are putting up a brave face in TV3 site…I am having a good laugh!!!

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  6. lolitasbrother (751 comments) says:

    Garrett is wrong, it is imperative that we have a partner, Conservative and we must decide very soon his seat

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  7. Johnboy (17,007 comments) says:

    The big laugh will be when Key and Winston have to get together to cobble a Government.

    Still it will be far better that that happens than we get the two chinless wonders trying to cobble one together with Honi! :)

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  8. lolitasbrother (751 comments) says:

    John boy that is not going to happen, Garrett rubbish above ignore it, we need Conservative, after that it is a deal done NZ Government 2014, McCully agrees,

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  9. David Garrett (7,559 comments) says:

    Lolita’s fuckwit: Who said the Nats didn’t need a partner? Or two? I’m just not sure how the Nats are going to arrange that…Are you under the influence of substances by any chance?

    Johnboy: who can doubt that Peters would opt for some baubles of office in what must surely be his last term? It would be a repeat of 1996 – three weeks “fishing” while they work out some grand sounding post for the prick..

    One thing you can take to the bank: if he has a choice, there is no way on earth the Great Charlatan would be in opposition or even on the cross benches for his last hurrah…

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  10. Ross12 (1,456 comments) says:

    I think the part of the poll ( TV 1) that will have the left worried the most was when they looked to see who probably would not vote. Very high in the below 34 yr old and very high in Auckland ( which I found interesting)

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  11. lolitasbrother (751 comments) says:

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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  12. goldnkiwi (1,545 comments) says:

    I appreciate National Ministers laying claim to seats, but that could be tactical. Safe either way electorate or list and saves real speculation in the meanwhile as it all plays out, why show your hand? When does a final list have to be advertised. Greens was today.

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  13. SPC (5,784 comments) says:

    The real news is that MMP is ending up a 3 party contest, despite National keeping the no threshold requirement for parties that win electorate seats.

    National vs Labour and Greens.

    United

    So either they did not poll anyone in Ohariu or even those who vote for Dunne will not vote for his party – 0.0% in both polls, this has to a record low for any party represented in parliament.

    ACT

    ACT is only polling enough for one seat, so this is the only gain to National via gifting Epsom.

    However it seems National + Ohariu + Epsom is enough to win in 2014.

    2017

    A straight contest National vs Labour and Greens as NZ First (even if they get to 5% for 2014) will not get back in 2017.

    ACT is just a rump for fringe rightist policy promotion to National coalition governments – and despite its self reliance policy stance is as dependent on National as any beneficiary is on the state. It’s existence is an act of hypocrisy.

    Will people keep selecting Dunne the one man centre party in their coalitions?

    The Maori Party just keeps the others honest in Maori electorates, with an aspiration for its MP’s to fulfil a coalition role with whomever is in government

    Conservatives want to be the new NZ First, with Craig and his money as balance of power broker in place of Winston.

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  14. David Garrett (7,559 comments) says:

    Ross: Yes, that will concern them all right…is it broken down below age 34? I would have thought the under 25’s would be pretty solidly left…most people start to learn a bit about real life after 30…

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  15. David Garrett (7,559 comments) says:

    Fuckwit: What a brave boy, making accusations of pederasty while hiding behind a pseud…come out from hiding brave boy and I WILL sue your sorry arse…

    SPC: A lot of good sense in there…

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  16. lolitasbrother (751 comments) says:

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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  17. lolitasbrother (751 comments) says:

    Name Paul Scott 45 Nicholls street Christchurch, 8013
    phone 022 1024 740
    loves our country, my dear wife and I we love this New Zealand . but not you Garrett , Rodney himself hates your gut dog in gutter

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  18. David Garrett (7,559 comments) says:

    Thank you Paul Scott…excellent…but having been a taxi driver in Christchurch I don’t know Nicholls Street…where is that?

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  19. slightlyrighty (2,475 comments) says:

    Here in lies a conundrum. Do the Nats campaign not only to win their own vote, but to erode the NZ First vote? Winston is just one bout of apoplexy away from destroying his support, but National is one mis-step away from entrenching it. We cannot afford another teapot tape saga giving Winston the political tool to rally enough fools to their side. National must mobilise enough of the vote to make the total votes high enough to make the 5% threshold a difficult one.

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  20. burt (8,321 comments) says:

    lolitasbrother

    Winston’s example of ladling people kiddy-fiddlers, it’s not a good one.

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  21. RF (1,454 comments) says:

    The idiot Micky Savage still believes Labour are in with a chance. Along with thumb head it just shows just how stupid and out of touch these morons are.

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  22. Simon (763 comments) says:

    Yes all very nice. Just remember ladies 1million people won’t vote in sept more people than will vote national.

    One million people get it. Doesn’t mater bunch of statist turds get in they are still statist turds regardless one party state

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  23. SPC (5,784 comments) says:

    The dependence of ACT and United on Epsom and Ohariu is not a great look for MMP – but it would be worse if the Conservative Party was to be given a seat so they could access a place in parliament.

    Both ACT and United have in the past won 5% of the vote in validate their continuing presence in parliament to some degree (both won electorate seats as well without being given them, as did New Labour/Alliance/Progressive party and more than once).

    In fact Anderton won Sydenham (and Peters Tauranga) in the FPP environment.

    Just giving Craig a seat would be a low and thus the Conservatives an entry into parliament they had not earned is just not on.

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  24. Inky_the_Red (761 comments) says:

    DG Nicholls Street is in Richmond. It’s only one block long but runs between Dudley and North Avon. I’d expect most Taxi drivers to know it

    http://www.google.co.nz/maps/place/Nicholls+St/@-43.5143272,172.6546218,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x6d318978bba490b1:0x912691d347e4c859

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  25. David Garrett (7,559 comments) says:

    Excellent…a “screen shot” duly printed….

    But back to the subject…It’s hard to see any other result than a thrashing for Labour here…and if they did elect the overweight batty boy as leader, how’s that going to work? Three leaders in a year??

    Thank you Inky…it is 30 years since I plied the streets of Christchurch in a hack…unfortunately that low rent address suggests he wont be worth powder and shot…but we’ll see…

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  26. burt (8,321 comments) says:

    Will silent T resign ? Will Labour clean out the baggage, Mallard, Goff, King…

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  27. jonnobanks (148 comments) says:

    I actually like the new act… a focus on economic freedom rather than telling us how to live our own lives.

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  28. Grendel (1,005 comments) says:

    DPF there is an error in one of your results.

    on the colmar brunton poll NZ first gets no seats, but your conclusions have them still with 7 on the count of 123.

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  29. David Garrett (7,559 comments) says:

    Burt: Lets say he does resign – which I don’t think for a moment he will…what then? Even if NZ is ready for a fat homosexual as PM – and I don’t believe the electorate is – THREE leaders in a year?? Think how that looks to Mr and Mrs Average Kiwi…

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  30. Grendel (1,005 comments) says:

    jonnobanks, i think you will find ACT have always been about not telling us how to live our lives. If the media actually report the news objectively (hah), then people might actually find this out this time.

    but i am sure that the media will continue to trot out the same usual crap about the party.

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  31. burt (8,321 comments) says:

    David Garrett

    Disclosure;
    I have a vested interest on iPredict for Mallard, King, and Cunliffe to be gone.

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  32. duggledog (1,589 comments) says:

    I got chatting to a nice lady on the weekend who is visiting from Australia. I said ‘I hear you have got a new Prime Minister over there?’ wondering what her reaction to him would be.

    ‘Have we?’ she replied, without a hint of sarcasm or artifice. She had no idea and wasn’t into all that stuff. She went on to tell me her family were all Labour voters (she was part Maori) whether they were in New Zealand or Australia, and that’s just the way it is, because and I quote. ‘Labour looks after the workers’.

    I didn’t know what to say. I sincerely doubt this ordinary, very pleasant woman, in her give-up-on-life-pants would be bothered to vote come the 20th, but if she, and all the others like her do, the results above will be smoked.

    If only Cunliffe can connect with them he is indeed still in with a chance but unfortunately communicating with aliens on a faraway planet would be easier!

    I’m still going for National governing alone

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  33. Chuck Bird (4,925 comments) says:

    There is not doubt National will give the Conservatives a seat if JK and a few others in National believe it will help National lead the next government. For National to do this the Conservatives would have to poll above 3%. If National did nothing a lot of the 3% who may voted for the Nats would be lost.

    The odds on ipredict say NZF is likely to go with Nats – No doubt for a good price. If the Nats support the Conservatives it would take votes from NZF.

    Key is a numbers man and he will keep his options open. If he with a couple of strong supporters say we have a deal with the Conservative I doubt if they would ignore him.

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  34. Colville (2,300 comments) says:

    Come November Key will be able to add to his impressive collection of stuffed ex Leaders heads mounted above his fireplace.

    4 in 6 years. Awesome.

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  35. OneTrack (3,233 comments) says:

    burt – “Will silent T resign ? Will Labour clean out the baggage, Mallard, Goff, King…”

    No. They will still be convinced that what they are doing, hard left, big state, glasses of milk and nasty party, are correct, and it is just that the proletariat are too simple to see how wonderful they are. I expect more doubling down and nasty party from here on in.

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  36. Chuck Bird (4,925 comments) says:

    Is NZ ready for a FFF as PM?

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  37. Colville (2,300 comments) says:

    If Nats continue at this level of support and Cun*liffe continues to be as dismal as he has been I would bet that Labours support will tank and go down to 20%. People just wont bother to vote.

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  38. David Garrett (7,559 comments) says:

    Duggle: Aint that just bloody sad? And it was ever so….I recall my father – a card carrying Social Crediter – once returning from the polling booth shaking his head….some woman had yelled out to a wharfie who was a prominent member of our community and who was also there to vote: “Whose the Labour man Percy??” She wasn’t at all interested in policy, or even who was standing…just so long as she gave her vote to Labour…

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  39. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    ….” If he with a couple of strong supporters say we have a deal with the Conservative I doubt if they would ignore him”….

    Then we can only hope that the Conservatives have peaked. The CCCP were always going to mop up the nuttiest of the religios but despite the noise they make I doubt that they would be much more than 2% of the electorate.

    Point is that rather than waste their vote they’ll swing back in behind National if JK refuses to gift Colin Craig a seat.

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  40. NK (1,257 comments) says:

    There is not doubt National will give the Conservatives a seat if JK and a few others in National believe it will help National lead the next government. For National to do this the Conservatives would have to poll above 3%. If National did nothing a lot of the 3% who may voted for the Nats would be lost.

    Why on earth would National give the Cons a seat on these numbers? Most polls show the Nats can govern with Act and UF and maybe the Maori Party. This combination has given stable government for 8 years. Why would Key risk a complete political novice & stranger in Colin Craig if he didn’t need to?

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  41. lolitasbrother (751 comments) says:

    ha ha Inky , Mt Inky that is correct , bring a gun my friend t I would not shoot you we are your of comrad, tbhere wikk, br ol ib e e,e have worjk l folhere is no problemI ewoluld not shoot yoiu, and the centre right s guatranttdd AND IeT IT en AND mEN ne AND LADIES n gentelemenand lkaideie ha ha Iny WISH deeep andcvurter

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  42. Chuck Bird (4,925 comments) says:

    @nasska

    Some will and some will not. If instant money is there goal like it sounds yours is they might. Other may think democracy is more important.

    And what evidence have you that only religious people would vote for the Conservatives?

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  43. OneTrack (3,233 comments) says:

    DPF – In your analysis, you list CL against a coalition of Labour and the Greens. Are there are policies in Labour/Green 2014 that anybody could conceivably use to call either of them “Centre”. I would describe them as Left and Hard Left respectively. Add ManaIP in and who knows what you end up with.

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  44. Colville (2,300 comments) says:

    Cons got near 3% last time a few weeks after forming the party. So they should do that easy this time as more will feel safe to not vote Nat.

    I see the CCCP being the party where a lot of NZFs vote will go in ’17 so Nats woudl be wise to invite them inside the tent in “14.

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  45. Chuck Bird (4,925 comments) says:

    “Why would Key risk a complete political novice & stranger in Colin Craig if he didn’t need to?”

    NK, the short answer is the he would not. You are talking on present polling.

    I say it is unlikely he would gift the Conservatives a seat but it certainly cannot be ruled out.

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  46. Southern Raider (1,831 comments) says:

    Wat Dabney will bitch but I reckon if National introduce a policy to ban non-residents from buying residential property even if it was just in Auckland they could move into the mid 50’s and steal a good section of Winston’s vote

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  47. Chuck Bird (4,925 comments) says:

    Nasska, people are not nutty because they do not think like you. What was the anus designed for?

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  48. Nostalgia-NZ (5,281 comments) says:

    •73% like Budget 24% dislike
    •67% of Labour voters like it

    Take a bow Bill English. Still tight, going to be difficult for Labour to get those under 34 year olds out to vote. Going on the focus within the electorate on the economy rather than Oravida, looks like JK played the smart hand with the ‘rest’ leave.

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  49. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    Chuck Bird

    1) Where on earth do you get “instant money” out of my comment? I’m fiscally conservative but Mr Craig doesn’t seem to know where he is on the things that matter to the electorate like money. Morally although he wants to take NZ back to a time that never existed & that is what I oppose.

    2) No evidence whatsoever……who needs it when the CCCP tailors its policies for the Godgobblers & is feted for its trouble on blogs such as these. They’ll get the votes their campaign will target but in doing so they will alienate the 98% who want the state & the church out of their lives.

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  50. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ NK

    Word is that many Maori are not impressed with the ‘you have to be sitting at the table’ line. Some believe that they have been sat at the table for the last six years, and nothing has improved for them.

    If Maori are needed by National, then there will be some big demands – and with new leaders there is going to have to be some big offerings to get the support, which they must have from their people, to agree to a coalition. I doubt the simple place at the table will make it another round.

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  51. Rich Prick (1,729 comments) says:

    From the War Room:

    #BringBackOurShearer

    That’ll work.

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  52. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    ….”What was the anus designed for?”….

    Whatever the owner of the anus wants to do with it.

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  53. David Garrett (7,559 comments) says:

    Nasska: The Cons got 2.65% last time despite only having been in existence for a couple of months…and despite all the pundits’ predictions…I agree that the “nutty religious vote” is perhaps 2 – 2.5%….the question is whether Craig can also attract “Kiwiblog man” in significant numbers…I am not afraid to admit I gave them my party vote last time…ACT had given a 25 year old student the Law and Order spokesmanship, and he had duly produced some stupid policies (not counting legalising cannabis) I could not in all conscience give them my party vote…the Cons were the only real alternative…

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  54. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ Nasska

    I don’t think only the religious will vote for the conservatives – we also have a significant number of crazy people in this country who would probably do the same – and then there are those that are just waiting for the chance to bash their kids legally, and of course the homophobic who are hoping no one has noticed they haven’t got into the compulsory gay activities yet.
    There are all sorts of crazies out there ready to drag us screaming and kicking back to Victorian times.

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  55. Chuck Bird (4,925 comments) says:

    @nasska

    If money is the most important thing in your life then vote accordingly.

    Money is not the most important thing in everyone’s and they will vote accordingly. Are you trying to say such people are stupid while you are highly intelligent? That is how you come across to me.

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  56. SPC (5,784 comments) says:

    In 2011 the Conservatives proposed the largest tax cut in our history – no income tax up to the MW. The advertising stated how much extra a week this meant for those on Super. It was a lot and it was in no way affordable.

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  57. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    ”What was the anus designed for?”

    When one hears someone ask that question, you realise there is a God and you are eternally grateful that he put you in a place where you don’t have to share a bathroom with the person who doesn’t know the answer to it.

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  58. Johnboy (17,007 comments) says:

    Judith’s onto it. All us crazy folk are just itching for Colin to get Justice in the next coalition so we can beat the shit out of our GLB sprogs! :)

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  59. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    David G

    In order to keep the Godwhacks on side he has to alienate the people who are not greatly worried about who’s up who so long as they can pay the bills & not have the church dictating morals

    The Conservatives don’t stand for anything other than a desire to dictate the morals of the nation.

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  60. wiseowl (936 comments) says:

    Act has no credibility and who on earth wants possum back in the trough again.?

    I get the impression that we see here an urban based narrow view of the political scene.Stuff the provinces as long as the chosen few continue on there merry way.

    We need the CP to correct National in preference to a coalition with a race based party or a party that can’t muster 500 members.

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  61. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    ….”Are you trying to say such people are stupid while you are highly intelligent? That is how you come across to me.”….

    Interpret it anyway you wish Chuck but remember that I’m not telling the Godstruck how to live their lives…..

    …..yet for some reason they presume to seek control over what I, my family & my friends do with ours.

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  62. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    Actually I’m quite looking forward to the next government if it is a UF/ACT/Maori/Conservative National one.

    It would make me admit I was wrong when I said we would be back in the polls within two years. If we had that sort of coalition, I think we might be back at the polls in one year. Key would pull the rest of his hair out in the first two weeks, and the Speaker will have a prozac drip. All in all, it would be fun!

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  63. Chuck Bird (4,925 comments) says:

    “Whatever the owner of the anus wants to do with it.”

    That is not how NZ Blood Services see things.

    You liberals should be thankful for conservatives like me who do not take it up the arse or shag loose women if you need uncontaminated blood.

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  64. Johnboy (17,007 comments) says:

    David Carter may be empowered to dispense Telishment to selected chaps such as Mallard in that scenario Judith! :)

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  65. Johnboy (17,007 comments) says:

    If you have a list of loose women (other than the ones that comment here) Chuck I’m happy if you post it to me! :)

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  66. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    ….”You liberals should be thankful for conservatives like me who do not take it up the arse or shag loose women if you need uncontaminated blood.”…..

    Thanks for the community spirit you show Chuck but if you really feel the need for one up the blurter some one else can step up & take your place. :)

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  67. wiseowl (936 comments) says:

    I cant figure why you are so obsessed with this idea of the Conservatives being religious nutters Nasska.

    They are really just pursuing policies that the National Party used to follow.That,s why they, National ,used to be referred to as a conservative party.

    Methinks you are barking up the wrong tree.

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  68. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @Johnboy (13,805 comments) says:
    May 25th, 2014 at 9:16 pm

    I can just imagine! Part of me thinks it would be worth the entertainment value, but the tiny wee small bit of me that is sensible would rather see an outright win by National, than see a mish/mash coalition like that.

    Of course I’m still holding out that Kim Dotcom’s party will get 55% of the votes, because I’ve recently bought a lot of shares in pharmaceutical companies and I figure it that happens there are going to be millions of Kiwis needing medication. I’m going to be RICH$$$$

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  69. Nostradamus (3,433 comments) says:

    Chuck Bird:

    What was the anus designed for?

    Er, Chuck, this is a thread about TV polls…

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  70. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,923 comments) says:

    Am I the only one to notice the incongruity of the party whose members spat on Vietnam Veterans having a WAR ROOM FFS?

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  71. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    They are really just pursuing policies that the National Party used to follow.

    The key word there is USED to. They were abandoned because society changes, there are all sorts of new inventions, and discoveries etc, and the thing we USED to believe in, and require, are no longer practical for a changed society.

    The Conservatives are offering a plethora of policies to basically mop up anything that they have heard people say they don’t like. They have no real direction or purpose and remind me of those kids at school we used to call try-hards.

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  72. kowtow (8,780 comments) says:

    …….tv?

    Like anuses ,also full of shit.

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  73. Johnboy (17,007 comments) says:

    Chuck got confused Nostradamus. He thought it was BBC poles! :)

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  74. Chuck Bird (4,925 comments) says:

    “Er, Chuck, this is a thread about TV polls…”

    Well speak nasska about that. He bought up the topic of religious nutters. I pointed out there are logical reason for objecting to homosexuality rammed down our throats. You may not mind but I do.

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  75. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (895 comments) says:

    John Key needs to carefully plan this election. Hopefully egg head Joyce will play ball and not screw up.

    Due to the nature of MMP, despite high polling, the communist-socialist combo could get in with the help of Mana/Maori/FatCon.

    1. Best option is to rule just with ACT and UF which may be very difficult as National won’t be able to get more than 50% of the votes on election night. So consider Conservatives and ask Colin not to make any silly statements like he has an alien in his garage. Offer a seat support to Conservatives so that their 2% – 3% vote is not wasted
    2. Next best option is to include the Maori party – they are likely to get only 2 seats in my opinion
    3. Last option is to form a coalition with Winnie the Poo….then John Key should be aware that a 4th term is NOT possible at all as the third term, particularly the election year 2017 will be utter chaos. After that National will need to regroup big time.

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  76. Nostradamus (3,433 comments) says:

    Indeed Johnboy. Here I was thinking that Chuck might have misread the last sentence as “There’s now only 118 days until the election erection”.

    Reading “National up significantly” in that context wouldn’t have helped! :)

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  77. kowtow (8,780 comments) says:

    wiseowl

    Haven’t you figured out yet that n’arse is one of the biggest anti Christian obsessives on KB?

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  78. Johnboy (17,007 comments) says:

    The thought of Judith buying Viagra stock has probably enlarged his error a swell! :)

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  79. Chuck Bird (4,925 comments) says:

    “John Key needs to carefully plan this election”

    I am sure he will. It seems many National supports are not so sure.

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  80. wiseowl (936 comments) says:

    Judith.
    Ever heard of National Party members?

    They are the ones that were abandoned.What you say is just excuses for National following power not principle.

    You are obviously placed here to stand up for the mistaken path that the Nats have followed.

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  81. wiseowl (936 comments) says:

    And Judith right in front of us now we see the rise of UKIP for similar reasons to what is happening right here.Cameron was not listening to his party and now he is backpedalling.

    Same will happen here.

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  82. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    wiseowl

    The entire electorate has shifted many points to the Left over the past two decades & fortunately National have adapted & moved with it. Otherwise we would be mismanaged into the poorhouse by Labour & the Greens…..forever.

    The tiny little iceberg that is conservatism in NZ is melting under you….get with it man.

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  83. Johnboy (17,007 comments) says:

    I used to be very big in the conservative pole area and I’ve slowly melted away nasska. It’s only Judith’s pharmaceutical products that have kept me active in that area at all recently! :)

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  84. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ wiseowl (612 comments) says:
    May 25th, 2014 at 9:36 pm

    I am not a National supporter. I am not sure who I will vote for (it won’t be Labour either) – I am hoping there will be a party called ‘none of the above’ on the form that I can vote for to demonstrate how disgusted I am with our MP’s.

    The state of poitics in this country is a disgrace. I am a grandmother – my grandchildren are my reward for getting this far in life without killing someone that peeved me off – Colin Craig offers nothing good for them. He is a flake and will not get my vote either.

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  85. SPC (5,784 comments) says:

    nasska, the electorate is more socially liberal than it was, it is more to the right economically than it was.

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  86. Johnboy (17,007 comments) says:

    I’d have thought your grandchildren were a reward for being able to find a chap who was brave enough to shag you Judith! :)

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  87. wiseowl (936 comments) says:

    That explains everything Judy.
    You always appear very confused.

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  88. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ Johnboy (13,810 comments) says:
    May 25th, 2014 at 9:51 pm

    You are presuming I don’t own a turkey baster

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  89. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    Socially we are more liberal SPC but I’m less certain that there’s been any movement to the right in economic matters.

    Generally Labour lurches the country to the left then National gets the economy out of the shit…..rinse & repeat.

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  90. Johnboy (17,007 comments) says:

    However you use it Judith you are one sick woman! :)

    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=turkey+baster&page=2

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  91. iMP (2,422 comments) says:

    No Q. Labour will draw up again, once the McCarten factor kicks in more. And if Nats remain this high, complacency and not turning out their vote is a serious issue for National.

    They totally need to give Conservatives a seat. Conv.s have polled consistently in the 2.5% area since last election, more than ACT and UF combined.

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  92. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    You always appear very confused.

    No, I’m not confused. I know exactly what I mean, however, I do accept I can be confusing to people who see the world in black and white and base their entire life around their political preferences.

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  93. Fisiani (1,048 comments) says:

    John Key is a master strategist who thinks 2 and 3 elections ahead. NZF will never get over 5% without Winston. Winston is very very ill and will not be around in 2017. If The Conservatives win a seat and get 2.5% then they have 3 MP’s who will never support Labour. Conservatives in Parliament 2014-17 would mean two or three times as many MP’s in 2017 and supplant NZF. There could be a 60-40 split for another four terms.

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  94. SPC (5,784 comments) says:

    Fisiani, it is actually in the Conservatives and National’s best interest for them to earn their way into parliament in 2017 by getting 5% of the vote. This is not possible until NZ First implode and are out of the way.

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  95. doggone7 (829 comments) says:

    jonnobanks: “… new act… a focus on economic freedom rather than telling us how to live our own lives.”

    The freedom to live our lives how they want?

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  96. iMP (2,422 comments) says:

    Everyone assumes ACT will win Epsom.

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  97. SPC (5,784 comments) says:

    iMP, ACT represent the ideological impulse of the right sans political realism and thus serve a future purpose for National.

    Whereas the “Conservatives” are all over the place ideologically as the concept is built around one man and his money.

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  98. Fisiani (1,048 comments) says:

    If torn between Conservatives and NZF remember that a gifted seat to Conservatives means every vote counts. NZF may not reach the 5% threshold so why risk a wasted vote. The certainty of a Conservative presence would implode NZF.

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  99. iMP (2,422 comments) says:

    SPC, by “all over the place” do you mean the Polls between 1-3%, when ACT sits on 0.00%? ACT gives zero to National.

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  100. burt (8,321 comments) says:

    Comical Cunliffe, we’ve got this one team !

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  101. burt (8,321 comments) says:

    Expect something like this from Cunliffe after the election

    See: http://news.sky.com/story/181082/the-best-of-comical-ali

    Al-Sahhaf perhaps saved his best performance for the moment American tanks rolled into Baghdad.

    “There is no presence of American infidels in the city of Baghdad,” he declared to journalists on the roof of the Palestine Hotel as gunfire echoed across the city and tanks fired from the banks of the Tigris just a few hundred yards away.

    As the audience of bemused reporters pointed out the fierce firefight across the river, he continued: “There is no presence of the American columns in the city of Baghdad at all. We besieged them and we killed most of them.”

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  102. Unity (611 comments) says:

    I agree with you Wiseowl about the Conservatives and how they are viewed so negatively by ignorant people. People are listening to the media who are the ones with a negative fixation on Colin Craig – goodness knows why. I have met the man, listened to him speak at meetings and never have I heard him say anything that would lead to him being called a Christian, let alone a religious nutter, or a person who is not sure if a man was put on the moon etc etc. He was asked a question by the media on the spur of the moment about an incident that happened probably before he was born and said he didn’t have an opinion. He’d probably never ever considered it up until that moment. After that he was labelled but he most definitely didn’t have a view on it at all.

    He is not a political animal but is standing for Parliament because like many of us he is fed up with our democracy being eroded, apartheid creeping in, and politicians not listening to the people when many referenda have been overwhelmingly for or against something but the politicians take absolutely no notice – for reasons that quite elude me. Unlike politicians he is genuine, honest and caring. Whether he would stay that way once he got into Parliament is another story. It seems to corrupt people. However up to the present time he would be about the only person in the political arena with an ounce of integrity. John Key (Shonkey) certainly hasn’t. He would sell his own mother if it would keep him in power. He’s certainly sold our country down the river. And this is coming from a (now former) National Party supporter. Why he is so popular absolutely bewilders me and I can only think it is because people see him as the best of a bad bunch. They certainly don’t look beyond at what he is actually doing. I would describe them as Sheeple – people who behave like sheep. We definitely have too many sheep in this country.

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  103. kiwi in america (2,511 comments) says:

    These are strong results for National but not unexpected given the largely positive reception the budget had. If these results are mirrored in the remaining media polls (Herald Digi, Fairfax/Ipsos) the ‘govern alone’ meme from the media will gather pace (along with any real or imagined stories about National’s cockiness and/or arrogance). This perception was widespread by the time of the 2011 election and led to complacency inside National’s campaign who were not as diligent IMO with their turnout. Plenty of softer low information National voters thought Key had it in the bag and stayed home. That left National vulnerable to what the Americans calls the ‘October surprise’.

    Labour/Greens know that the media will make a scandal out of almost anything remotely out of synch. Yes the Collins and Williamson issues ended up not affecting National but, for the week or two that faux scandals like those dominate the news cycle, the government does take a temporary hit in the polls. One of the uses of the erratic Roy Morgan poll is that, for all its volatility, their polling cycle is usually fortnightly and it has shown the short term effect on the government’s popularity when these sorts of beltway issues are being thrashed by the media. The left’s only hope is to time such an issue at the end of the penultimate week of the campaign, have it dominate the weekend commentariat chatter and news cycles into the middle of the last week of the campaign forcing National onto the back foot. The Banks cup of tea frenzy gifted Winston Peters at least another 3 or 4 MPs and may have dragged him across the threshold. National will be avoiding that particular scenario and undoubtedly will excercise even more message discipline and tighter campaign management, but the media will be like greyhounds at the gate waiting to sprint at the hint of a mistake, scandal or anything akin to it. National cannot be complacent – they must relentlessly canvass their support (solid and leaning) across the country and set in motion the best GOTV operation in NZ campaign history. If they invest in this, the chances of governing alone are enhanced. That more than anything else will lay a solid foundation for an unprescendented 4th victory in 2017!

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  104. tvb (4,517 comments) says:

    The budget gave the Government a boost. I hope there is more than that to have people voting for National. For my part I see the economy as fragile and it would not take much to push things over the edge. But with Australia looking like a busted flush it brings hope that John Key’s optimistic assessment that we can catch Australia is not unrealistic. The Government has to give a reason to vote for a better future under National.

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  105. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Good to see decent voters have totally rejected the rectum reamers, luddites, and flotsam that support them.

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  106. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Newstalkzb are on “Tojo’s” case already. Suppose they are even in discussion with “Worm” Campbell trying to rally support for the deviants.

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  107. lolitasbrother (751 comments) says:

    can we kindly get down to ground level and elect this PM 2014 and also 2017

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  108. NK (1,257 comments) says:

    They totally need to give Conservatives a seat.

    Give? You’ve got your hand out like most lefties in this country. Why don’t the Cons do what David Seymour is doing in Epsom: Work your butt off for a seat. He’s out there in the cold and wet knocking on doors and has hundreds of volunteers delivering mail for him. You’re sounding more and more desperate by the day with this entitlement mentality. Votes are earned, they’re not given. So bloody well earn them.

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  109. Chuck Bird (4,925 comments) says:

    Matthew Hooton is no fool and I believe he is serious when he says their is a reasonable possibility Shane Jones could in a couple of years go with NZF and be a coalition partner for National. None of the present lot of NZF MPs could lead NZF when Winston retires. Shane Jones could. I also find it interesting that ipredict show NZF more likely to go with National.

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  110. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    ….” You’re sounding more and more desperate by the day with this entitlement mentality.”…..

    ACT work for support but the CCCP pray for theirs. Short of Yahweh smiting their opponents, which history tells us is very unlikely, all they’ve got left is a backup prayer to John Key.

    “Please, please, with love & chocolate icing…..give us a seat so we can force the rest of NZ to live the way we would like them to.”

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  111. tom hunter (5,093 comments) says:

    Psycho Milt’s comments over on the No Minister blog bear repeating here, rather than just linked:

    First and foremost, we can be happy that National are maintaining their popularity by implementing centre-left policies. The current National government has been barely distinguishable from a Labour government, and it’s paying off for them in the polls. As well as continuing the last government’s programme by retaining Kiwibank, Kiwirail, Kiwisaver (fucking unimaginative twats that the Fifth Labour government were when it came to naming things), the Cullen fund, interest-free student loans and Working for Families (wot? No ‘Kiwifamilies?’), the current National government rejected austerity as a response to the GFC and adopted the left’s approach to dealing with such crises: borrow to keep the economy functioning. We’ve built up quite a bit of debt but it allowed us to weather the storm via the state’s ability to borrow ridiculous sums at low interest rates, exactly as a good Keynesian would expect. They’ve made a few nods towards traditional National efforts to direct the nation’s wealth into the pockets of the already-wealthy, but mostly it’s been centre-left all the way.

    In its latest budget, the government has offered good traditional Labour fare, in the form of free doctor’s visits for children and extending paid parental leave, and by the looks of it the electorate is rewarding them with increased popularity. Labour must be spitting, and you have to feel sympathy for them (well, if you’re a lefty), but in terms of the national interest a centre-left programme is being followed so the overall situation is positive.

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  112. Ed Snack (1,927 comments) says:

    I have to say that I just don’t get this support for Colin Craig and the Conservatives. I took the trouble to read a little on their policies, and they look like a dog’s breakfast. They are “conservative” morally, but economically they are left-nationalist. I see them as a rump of dissatisfied religious voters who follow the moral preenings plus some disaffected NZF people who like the nationalism and who find Colin preferable to Winston (they’ve finally managed to look behind the curtain at NZF and don’t like what they see).

    I just don’t see the Conservatives as a long term viable partner who would bring anything at all to the table for National. And ACT have often seemed to lose their way but they remain the only party that potentially represents the libertarian rational right in some form or other.

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  113. chris (647 comments) says:

    Ed Snack:

    I have to say that I just don’t get this support for Colin Craig and the Conservatives. I took the trouble to read a little on their policies, and they look like a dog’s breakfast. They are “conservative” morally, but economically they are left-nationalist.

    I share your bewilderment. People keep harping on about how they’d be some sort of natural coalition partner for National, but I’m not sure how given their economic policies. The Conservatives seem to be yet another personality party that will only be around as long as the leader is prepared to throw money at it. Very similar to NZF with old Winnie.

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  114. Harriet (5,143 comments) says:

    “…..Why he[Key] is so popular absolutely bewilders me and I can only think it is because people see him as the best of a bad bunch. They certainly don’t look beyond at what he is actually doing. I would describe them as Sheeple – people who behave like sheep. We definitely have too many sheep in this country…..”

    Labour increased the public service by 47% – and Key has made damn well sure for over 8yrs now that the mug taxpayer keeps paying for them all. And they think Labour will rip them off?

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  115. flash2846 (289 comments) says:

    @Judith May 25th, 2014 at 8:54 pm

    @ NK Word is that many Maori are not impressed with the ‘you have to be sitting at the table’ line. Some believe that they have been sat at the table for the last six years, and nothing has improved for them.

    Hey Judith
    The only people who ‘nothing has improved for’ are the very people who have done nothing. Nothing to improve themselves and nothing to improve their country.
    BLUDGERS! is a fair description I think.

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  116. goldnkiwi (1,545 comments) says:

    Funny, I call my sheep sheeple because they behave like people ;)

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  117. Unity (611 comments) says:

    The Conservatives have two policies that are vital for me in this election – far more important than the economy, education, health and everything else, because until we get them this country will continue to slide backwards into apartheid, which is virtually here already and set to get far worse if we don’t keep our wits about us.

    The first is binding referenda so we can take back our democracy of ‘for the people, by the people’. We certainly don’t have that with politicians totally ignoring several referenda in recent years, believing they know better than we do or having some other hidden agenda. The second is racial equality under the law. While we have preferential treatment based on race we are going down the apartheid road.

    Such is the importance of these two policies that my Party vote will be going to the Party who has these two as their bottom line. So far, only the Conservatives have them so regardless of what the biased hopeless ridiculous media say about them being religious nutters who believe in gobbledegook theories (all pie in the sky and totally untrue), that’s where my Party vote is going.

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  118. Unity (611 comments) says:

    The Conservatives have two policies that are vital for the wellbeing of this country. Far more so than the economy, education, health etc and until we get them this country is going to end up in dire straits.

    The first is binding referenda so we can claim back our democracy and be ‘for the people by the people’. We certainly don’t have that at the moment with successive Governments ignoring a number of referenda which voted overwhelming one way, believing they either know better than we do, or because they have another agenda.

    The second is racial equality under the law. We are slipping more and more into apartheid and the rest of us are becoming second class citizens in our own country. Where you have privilege based on race, that is apartheid.

    So, whatever the mindless ridiculous inept media say about the Conservatives being religious nutters who also believe in conspiracy theories (absolute bunkum!!), they are so far the only Party worth looking at and will be getting my Party vote.

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  119. altiora (279 comments) says:

    I’m sick of hearing this bludging mentality from Conservatives, ACT and UF. National is working hard to secure the centre ground so that it is the biggest party. Why does it have some obligation to remedy the woeful shortcomings of so-called potental support-parties. ACT has been nothing but a disaster and has not benefited National (save pehaps Charter schools) tangibly in any way. The tea tapes incident last election could well have cost National an overall majority in the House.

    If these minor parties are any good they will win the necessary votes by their own efforts, rather than thinking that National must gift them a seat. I’m particularly suspicious of Colin Craig and his efforts to try to obtain a safe National seat; I suspect he just wants an easy way to obtain a seat for life; the Conservatives are quite flagrantly trying to cannibalise National votes rather than to build their own electorate comprised of people who wouldn’t otherwise vote National. If Craig were genuine, he would take the fight to one of the South Auckland electorates where the Labour voters are uneasy with Labour’s social engineering.

    Let the minor parties go to the electorate and win their own seats, and when they do that they can look National in the eye and say “you need our votes, what are you going to give us in return?”. In other words, let the market decide. And if the market doesn’t like what the minor parties are offering, the minor parties should blame themselves not blame National.

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  120. Manolo (14,074 comments) says:

    The sublimely incompetent Micky Savage offers these words of wisdom at The sub-Standard:
    My own belief is that there is an inbuilt bias in the polls. I do not see how the sampling can work to correct for landline based polls. I have many, many clients out west who do not have a landline and rely only on cellphone for communication.

    This poor third-rate lawyer, who would not even qualify as a toilet cleaner, is offering sage advice to Silent T.

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  121. iMP (2,422 comments) says:

    Altiora (12:38 pm) National’s vote is “cannibalized” as you put it (as is Labour’s) because in 1996 we switched to MMP.

    Govt is now about proportionality and alliances, like a political Survivor Island. The bigger parties now have to build accords with smaller parties that reflect the diversity of the NZ political spectrum.

    Without Colin Craig, National really has noone on its side. UF may be gone this election and ACT has been polling 0.00% for some time.

    national simply does not have sufficient support to outvote the NZers who will vote Lab+Greens+NZF+Maori+Mana. That is why Colin Craig and the Conservatives are so important this election.

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  122. altiora (279 comments) says:

    iMP: you’re failing to grasp the point. How can a change to MMP cannibalise anyone’s vote? Did MMP take away voters who would have otherwise voted National? Hardly.

    The point is that Conservatives, ACT and (to a lesser extent) UF are trying to take votes from National’s usual constituency. That is a stupid approach, and not surprisingly National isn’t falling for it.

    These parties are not trying to create a voter base by taking votes from people who either don’t vote or vote for parties other than National. No that seems to be too much work for them. So instead they will beg and threaten National for a cushy seat. We are told by Conservatives that there are thousands and thousands of people frustrated by National but who’re of the centre-right persuasion. Well, if that’s the case, why aren’t the polls showing anything much? It’s the same old story that the Christian parties were telling in the 90s; yet when election day came, they were a total flop.

    Again, why should National give up a seat for parties who seem to be doing bugger all to win votes? We were promised all manner of things by giving ACT Epsom, but what has happened? Nothing. Nada. The public are tired of these electoral games, so National needs to watch out.

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  123. iMP (2,422 comments) says:

    Quite the contrary Altiora, hasn’t the leader of the Conservative party ruled out seeking a ‘cup-o-tea’ arrangement, and several times? The Conservative party has constantly talked about the 5% and getting there on its own merits. I would think, in the end, it might be National who might pick up the phone, because MMP creates niches and many NZers fill a niche that is outside the large blue (or red) tent.

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  124. altiora (279 comments) says:

    iMP: Craig did this after he got rebuffed for the new Harbour seat and Murray McCully’s seat. And then suddenly he says “I don’t want National to give me a seat anyway”. Yeah right. And let’s mention dodgy polls in Rodney, shall we?

    You may or may not be right about that. But my point is: back off National and trying to shame them into cuddling up with yet another dupe.

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  125. deadrightkev (532 comments) says:

    National will have to consider a seat for Colin Craig very soon.

    The likely seat is McCully’s. As much as he whines I am sure Murray will move aside for a diplomatic posting if he is “encouraged” enough.

    Maurice could move over for a posting as well and lets face it he is dog tucker after 27 years its time to go.

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