Danyl on the polls

June 18th, 2014 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

Danyl Mc blogs:

What jumps out at me here is the comparison with the last election. Labour are trending down, just like last time – but now their votes are (mostly) going to National, not the Greens. Which makes sense to me: we have no idea what National plans to do in its third term, but that lack of vision is still preferable to being governed by a collection of left-wing parties who all hate each other but want to run the country together.

Nicely stated.

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40 Responses to “Danyl on the polls”

  1. redqueen (556 comments) says:

    That’s the irony. National hasn’t really said what it plans to do next, but anything is preferable to a collection of warring fanatics who think ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend.’

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  2. Urban_Redneck (73 comments) says:

    National being lacking in vision is certainly correct.

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  3. double d (225 comments) says:

    Why do these lefties keep telling us the Nats have no policy yet bitch and moan so strongly about any policy announcement they make
    Why say no policy when you really mean we don’t like your ideology and would like to pretend you have no policy — but heaven forbid if you try and get any bills passed we disagree with

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  4. flipper (3,990 comments) says:

    I believe that somehow, in spite of all the MSM’s best efforts to the contrary, the message is finally getting through to more and more voters. Slowly the realisation has dawned that MMP is a crock of shite.

    90 odd days to go, and apart from steady as she goes, National’s only significant announced policy for the GE is, a la the asset sell down in 2011, is reform of the RMA to bring about the necessary changes that wussie pussies like Dunne P. weaseled on.

    Voters in Auckland will not give up steady growth along an obvious path for the brain explosions which are now occurring , regularly, on the left. Yes they are pissed off with house prices. But if they are already on the big bus, and have paid the going rate, the last thing they want is Cun*life and the red melon screwing up their equity. So National’s narrative is better than the labour crap. Voters know what they will be buying….. and it is not pie in the sky policy paid fort with their money. Hence the poll trends.

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  5. bringbackdemocracy (426 comments) says:

    National need coalition partners.
    Bring on the Conservatives, who are polling higher now than in November 2011.

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  6. Huevon (220 comments) says:

    Why should National have a vision?? As long as the cows keep turning up for milking, Mr Key has his lips firmly affixed to President Xi’s rear end and plays golf with Obama, what is there to worry about?

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  7. Unity (531 comments) says:

    If anyone wants to get rid of the apartheid that is creeping into this country and don’t want a Labour/Green Government then vote for the Conservatives whose policies include racial equality under the law and binding referenda. National won’t do this on their own and need a coalition partner whose bottom line includes these policies.

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  8. Lance (2,635 comments) says:

    @Unity
    Kind of odd watching the movie “Lincoln’ the other night.
    The Republicans had to fight the Democrats to end slavery.

    Seems NZ is not much different

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  9. Mobile Michael (446 comments) says:

    Same as every election, the incumbent Government does not release policy pledges until Parliament rises to avoid the level of scrutiny that can be afforded by opponents (and more importantly, the ability to discover through official channels).

    Expect some big announcements in August from National. But not before then.

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  10. Nostalgia-NZ (5,119 comments) says:

    What continues to strike me about the polls is that Act and United Future almost virtually do not exist, both anticipate a ‘hand out’ from National while their (National’s) more significant ally the MP don’t appear to be considered for any ‘favours’ in a seat in the general electorate. Consequently, or for some reason, they seem to be silent on places like Henderson and West Auckland which have recently been in the news and have a fairly large proportion of Maori in those electorates. I wonder if the MP may at some point see that the splintering of the Maori vote is actually harmful to their political aspirations for the progress of Maori, possibly more so now because of the ‘odd’ coupling of he IP.

    I don’t agree that the electorate have ‘no idea’ as to what National plans if successful for a 3rd term, it’s more of the same – bringing down Government costs, promoting business and keeping a tight rein on the economy. The Correction’s budget has been trimmed, at least in part because of the falling musters, Police budget on hold at the same amount from memory, possibly to also reflect a drop in crime. Additionally a fairly robust reduction of payments for both prosecution and defence cases, that along with a history of steady as she goes is what the ‘idea’ is for a new National Government, along with facilitating improvements in education and the opportunity for those at the ‘lower’ end of the economic scale. The reduction is legal aid and prosecution funds is and should be a worry because ultimately that is the right to go to Court reduced or inhibited.

    But no move away from the ‘propping up’ of minor parties, not to say it won’t happen and there would be little surprise if that’s the way it went. However on the face of it the ‘cobbling together’ of a majority continues to require the potential to stitch together
    deals with other parties, that being the case – I’m surprised that at least to this point the MP has yet to draw a line in the sand, perhaps they’re too mindful of the threat to their own survival and rather than look to turn that to their own advantage are circumspect going into this election. Though who knows, plenty surprises so far and no doubt more to come.

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  11. Harriet (4,857 comments) says:

    “…..Yes, symbols are important – and wielding a good slogan.

    But these skills are the skills that gets one into office, but they are not what runs the office.

    These are the skills of the ad-man and the con-man more than the able executive, the careful administrator, and the man who should be Prime Minister.

    While in Office and when messy details appear, the Left will be more outraged than anyone else – while prepareing their next symbolic speech.

    The Left succeed in temporarily changing the subject until the next news cycle, but we lesser mortals, who inhabit the real world will be left to deal with the messy details that accompany their infatuation with the symbolic rather than the real…..”

    And that’s what all the others will be doing while Cunliffe is PM – as he can’t control Hone & Laila and the likes of Minto – let alone ABC!!

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  12. All_on_Red (1,581 comments) says:

    Vision? Do they really need to have vision? Surely all we need from a Government is a good administrator , a pragmatic implementer of solutions to problems and being fiscally prudent.
    That and staying the fuck out of my life unless I need to ask for help.

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  13. Steve (North Shore) (4,547 comments) says:

    Labour votes going to National and not to the Greens? Maybe some Labour voters are sick and tired of the prima donnas that infest their Party.
    This can only be a good thing

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  14. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    I think the polls are still only an indication and anything can happen. I totally agree with the writer on the point we know nothing about what National is promising us. And that is scary, very scary given we are getting close to the election. IT may well be that the swinging voters are going with National so far – but will that swing remain when they actually hear what National is offering? Let us not forget that John Key takes a win in the poll as permission to do whatever he wants – by declaring it his ‘referendum’. . Whilst I’m sure National will win, it will only be the government if it puts together the same sort of collection the writer is accusing Labour/Greens of having to do.

    Let’s not pretend that Maori and National are ‘friends’, or that they won’t cost the country plenty in bribes to get them there. And let’s not be fooled into thinking that Colin Craig and National are ‘twins’ – they are not – CC wants to abolish policy that Key has admirably stood firmly on.

    Yes, a Labour lead coalition would be a nightmare – but until we know what National is offering us in the way of policies – how can anyone make an objective decision. The longer National delay and join in playing the same stupid games Labour are, the more one is lead to believe there is a reason for the delay?

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  15. georgebolwing (796 comments) says:

    I still don’t believe that the CCCP either has any coherent policy platform that can be used to make the hundreds of decisions that are required of a party in parliament or the organisation to provide any sort of stable partnership.

    As far as I can tell, it is the product of one not very intelligent rich guy who thinks that he is going to save New Zealand from ruin by allowing kids to be smacked and giving assorted fruitcakes the ability to promote non-sense binding referendums.

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  16. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    Steve (North Shore) (4,426 comments) says:
    June 18th, 2014 at 8:18 am
    Labour votes going to National and not to the Greens? Maybe some Labour voters are sick and tired of the prima donnas that infest their Party.

    I think you will find they are pollsters that are swinging voters who don’t make up their mind until the actual day. Each week they change from one party to the next depending on what has been dished up in the days prior.

    They are probably neither die-hard labour nor national supporters, but members of the swinging voter group who happily supported Helen for three terms, then turned on her – and have supported National for the last two terms – but are currently ‘not sure’ and so are changing their options from week to week, depending who is winning the current bitch fight we are seeing in the media between the parties.

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  17. All_on_Red (1,581 comments) says:

    Judith
    All ” policies” are is talk. National are ” walking the walk” and can be judged on performance and track record. That’s the advantage of being an incumbent. Especially one which is doing such a good job.

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  18. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    giving assorted fruitcakes the ability to promote non-sense binding referendums.

    I agree – we already have a number of minor parties offering the same terms. In my opinion, CC, and KDC are very similar – they both want to buy themselves something that has very little to do with caring for our nation. One wants fame and status, the other wants status (namely freedom). Both are using our pathetic political system for their own dreams.

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  19. All_on_Red (1,581 comments) says:

    Judith
    Re your 8:33
    Lot of conjecture in that post. ” I think you will find” ,” they are probably”. Well, no I certainly don’t. You really are desparate to find reasons to sow doubt and undermine aren’t you. That’s ok,we know you don’t like Key, Collins et al.

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  20. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ All_on_Red (1,213 comments) says:
    June 18th, 2014 at 8:34 am

    I disagree, and I think history proves that policies are not just talk. For example, the policy of asset sales – of which Mr Key stated very clearly was a ‘referendum’ giving him the right to sell assets that many didn’t agree with.

    If a vote for John Key means he can decide to do whatever he likes based on the policies he has offered, then voters need to be VERY clear on what those policies are – because obviously there is no point in complaining later and saying “oh but I didn’t agree with that happening”.

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  21. Ed Snack (1,851 comments) says:

    “Vision” can be a very loaded word. For many on the left vision is synonymous with “government doing lots of things”; and that is an anathema to people like me who tend to believe that governments that do least do best. Putting it bluntly, governments and government organizations are simply not competent to run peoples lives for them.

    It seems to me that what the left are looking for is more meddling by government with the consequent additional opportunities for that exemplar of leftist behaviour, the “little hitler” type with his “you can’t do that here” catch cry, or sometimes “you MUST do that here and now” version. And with that comes another desired power, patronage, the ability to provide well paying sinecure type jobs for the faithful.

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  22. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ All_on_Red (1,214 comments) says:
    June 18th, 2014 at 8:40 am

    Yeah, and we know you don’t like Winston, Norman, or David – so what is your point? Are you trying to say that I can’t make comment because I don’t like some of our MP’s ? Really, you are that hypocritical?

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  23. hj (6,922 comments) says:

    One thing about polls is that someone is looking over your shoulder. A lot of polling personal have accents so that could skew polling for NZ First?

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  24. Redbaiter (8,554 comments) says:

    Quite amusing to note that on Kiwiblog, the blind and dumb socialists come out in force to reflexively down tick any comment that criticises their hero Mr. Progressive John Key.

    And if it the criticism gets really bad the paid protector TDVM arrives like some screeching harridan and starts turning blue in the face and desperately lashing out with his handbag.

    A joke really. The empty suit JK is making dupes of the lot of you, but then again, I guess there’s nothing new in politics, and the old saying “people get the government they deserve” is as true today as it ever was.

    But being so protective of a cynical and amateurish politician who has totally perverted what his party is meant to stand for is pretty weak really. As the NZ political status quo is dragged further and further left, in the end you’re going to get something that will make you very much regret the soft gullible mugs you’ve made of yourself over the period of the Key govt.

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  25. Paulus (2,608 comments) says:

    Why put out future Election Policy until the Election really starts.
    Then the shit fight can begin, by which time the so called opposition will have said all they are going to do like Kiwisaver compulsory.
    All they will do then is complain about the National’s policies forgetting they have any themselves – which they do not.

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  26. hj (6,922 comments) says:

    Comment by lefty — June 17, 2014 @ 9:29 am

    My read of the graphs is that the bias correction seems to mainly result in votes shifting from National to NZ First, but makes little difference to Labour or the Greens. Am I reading correctly? I’m somewhat hopeful that NZ First will cease to exist after the election, so at this point my views on how accurate or otherwise the polls around NZ First are probably hopelessly biased. I certainly find it hard to believe that 8.2% of NZers could be that stupid.
    ………
    U da reason Labours not popular (UKIP).

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  27. All_on_Red (1,581 comments) says:

    Judith
    Comment is free. It’s just that you.try.so.hard. So much so that troll is an apt descriptor.

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  28. Ed Snack (1,851 comments) says:

    In what way was the asset sales issue misleading ? It was a National party election campaign announced policy and they followed through on it. Disclaimer, I purchased shares in a couple of the power companies myself. I supported the policy as these are excellent relatively low risk reasonable yield investments for New Zealanders wanting long-term returns; and there’s a shortage of that sort of investment available in NZ.

    So a lot of people (not a majority) opposed the sales. If we took this as the benchmark, an announced policy by the winning (near but not outright majority, and that’s been the case for every MMP election) but opposed by quite a few people means that the policy should not be implemented, then there’s not a lot that could pass this test. Contrast this to two large examples, the anti-smacking law and the homosexual marriage law, both I would suggest at the time opposed by a majority of voters (but not actually tested I agree) but passed anyway. Do I hear you (Judith) ranting against those laws ? Or is it only laws that you yourself disagree with that lack “legitimacy”, because you are opposed to them ? Hypocrisy much ?

    You can take comfort though Judith, on this subject you are very much in agreement with Redbaiter, FWIW.

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  29. ross411 (775 comments) says:

    Judith (6,630 comments) says:
    June 18th, 2014 at 8:46 am
    I disagree, and I think history proves that policies are not just talk. For example, the policy of asset sales – of which Mr Key stated very clearly was a ‘referendum’ giving him the right to sell assets that many didn’t agree with.

    If a vote for John Key means he can decide to do whatever he likes based on the policies he has offered, then voters need to be VERY clear on what those policies are – because obviously there is no point in complaining later and saying “oh but I didn’t agree with that happening”.

    To a serious party full of professional people who are not career politicians, yes, it is reasonable to assume that if that party has policies and gets voted in, those policies will be realised if they can manage it (and no reason comes up not to do so).

    But for a whack-a-do party like today’s Labour or Greens, all bets are off. We better hope all their desperate statements and promises aren’t things they really plan to fulfil.

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  30. smttc (742 comments) says:

    Got your best frilly knickers ready Judith?

    The fat lady is warming up her tonsils.

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  31. stigie (1,109 comments) says:

    “And if it the criticism gets really bad the paid protector TDVM arrives like some screeching harridan and starts turning blue in the face and desperately lashing out with his handbag.”

    Oh really Reddy, the only criticism is of you, is refusing to tell us what you would do differently from 2008 and what National should have done over the last five years or so……I wait for the abuse as usual !~

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  32. Ross12 (1,411 comments) says:

    flipper — “I believe that somehow, in spite of all the MSM’s best efforts to the contrary, the message is finally getting through to more and more voters. Slowly the realisation has dawned that MMP is a crock of shite.”

    I think you are fairly close to the reality here flipper.

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  33. hj (6,922 comments) says:

    “To a serious party full of professional people who are not career politicians, yes, it is reasonable to assume that if that party has policies and gets voted in, those policies will be realised if they can manage it (and no reason comes up not to do so).

    But for a whack-a-do party like today’s Labour or Greens, all bets are off. We better hope all their desperate statements and promises aren’t things they really plan to fulfil.”
    ….
    Matt Nolan says the politicians don’t do what the economists tell them (I assume other than Bank economists).

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  34. slightlyrighty (2,472 comments) says:

    National do not need to announce policy in the way that Labour are doing. The Budget, with its measures to increase GP visits to under 13s, and other additional spending, does the same, as does the canning of the Monorail.

    What amazes me is the seeming lack of political tactical nous from Labour. This election will be won and lost the same way as every other election, at the center. Labour has surrendered the center to campaign for the hard left vote, along with the greens and IMP. None of these are actually growing the left bloc, but are only cannibalising each other.

    The center voter wants none of this.

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  35. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,888 comments) says:

    People who criticize the Conservative Party and deride them as an unsuitable ‘coalition’ partner for National might pause to reflect how useful it might be to have them inside the tent with their binding referenda.

    Then we could blame them for insisting on referenda to ditch the (a) current form of MMP and (b) Maori seats.

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  36. Dead Earnest (160 comments) says:

    Good point AF. The Maori seats are the last bastion of institutionlised racism. With Maori represention in general and list seats now at a higher ratio than their percentage of population, it can’t be denied that this colonial relic should go.
    Does any one know what percentage of Maori are registered for general electorates rather than Maori ones?

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  37. Unity (531 comments) says:

    Those who denigrate Colin Craig should look at what he has achieved by his own efforts. A self-made millionaire at a relatively young age. I don’t think he can be too stupid!!? I find it inexplicable as to why the media have such a ‘down’ on him and try and portray him as some sort of nutter. Is he a threat to them in some way or are they acting in the interests of a particular Party?

    Anyway, we have to either get rid of MMP or at least the coat-tailing, we definitely need binding referenda so we can take back our democracy again and the Maori Seats just skew Parliament and are totally unnecessary when you see how many people with Maori ancestry are already in other Parties in Parliament. They are certainly well represented.

    I understand that a high percentage of people with Maori ancestry are registered on the general role but I don’t have the figures to back this up.

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  38. OneTrack (3,024 comments) says:

    slightlyrighty – “What amazes me is the seeming lack of political tactical nous from Labour….The center voter wants none of this.”

    But that’s the problem. Labour 2014 wouldn’t recognise a center voter if they fell over one. All they listen to is their hard-left echo chamber and it is saying that the most important thing is a glass of milk.

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  39. PaulL (5,971 comments) says:

    @hj:

    Comment by lefty — June 17, 2014 @ 9:29 am

    My read of the graphs is that the bias correction seems to mainly result in votes shifting from National to NZ First, but makes little difference to Labour or the Greens. Am I reading correctly? I’m somewhat hopeful that NZ First will cease to exist after the election, so at this point my views on how accurate or otherwise the polls around NZ First are probably hopelessly biased. I certainly find it hard to believe that 8.2% of NZers could be that stupid.

    ………
    U da reason Labours not popular (UKIP).

    Actually, that was me, and not many people describe me as a lefty. My point was that Danyl’s “debiasing” appeared to mainly result in a large proportion of votes moving from National to NZF. I’m a bit dubious about whether his debiasing is accurate if that’s what it’s doing, because I find it hard to believe that so many people would vote for the doddery old fool. But perhaps it is accurate, and there are a set of people who don’t want to vote for National, don’t like the Greens, and can’t bear to vote Labour in their current mess. So they’re picking NZF. But surely there aren’t that many stupid people out there.

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  40. Unity (531 comments) says:

    Paul, they may not be so stupid. Many people that I know of are very worried about where this country will end up racially unless National have a coalition partner who just might make them pull back and start treating us all the same. I don’t think some people realise how crucial this is and seem to be oblivious as to what is actually going on behind the scenes with the Maorification of this country in all aspects of our lives.

    Now before you label me as a racist, let me tell you that I am most certainly not. Just look at all the co-governance, Maori Wards and Boards etc etc. What on earth do they contribute or achieve? They certainly take – our money – and for what? Maori immersion schools are popping up all over the country and I feel very sorry for the kids. English is the universal language and it is imperative it is the first language of our children if they are ever to prosper in the real world. By all means learn to speak Maori if they want to, but that should either be done in the home or funded by those who want to learn it.

    People of Maori descent today mostly have more than half other ancestry in their blood. We have all blended over the decades/centuries and you can’t tell me that their Maori side has different needs to their other side. If there wasn’t money in it, you can bet your bottom dollar this wouldn’t be an issue at all. It’s a great big con and my word aren’t they siphoning a bundle from the rest of us!! What fools we are!! Wake up people and look at what National is doing before you praise them economy-wise. Yes, they aren’t doing too bad a job there but it is being negated by their racial appeasing to the detriment of the rest of us – and wrecking our once beautiful country.

    I will be voting for a Party whose bottom line is racial equality under the law where we are all treated the same, and binding referenda so we can take our democracy back and make the politicians listen to the people.

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