I’ve blogged at Curiablog the results of the latest Fairfax Ipsos poll which has Labour plummet to 23% and National up 9% to 56%.
It is important to note that this poll was taken BEFORE yesterday’s revelations that Cunliffe denial’s about involvement with secret Labour Party donor Dong Liu were false. God knows where they would be today, except to say they seem well place to beat National’s record low of 21% in 2002.
Stuff says Labour would be reduced to 29 seats on this poll. They have (effectively) 23 electorate seats so that means they would get only six list MPs. Of course it might be fewer than that if NZ First does make 5% and/or they win any extra Maori seats.
So who loses their seat on this poll:
Kelvin Davis, Carol Beaumont, Rajen Prasad, Moana Mackey and Andrew Little all go, plus no replacements for Jones, Fenton and Prasad,
The MP on the verge of losing her seat is Jacinda Ardern. But she could be saved by Labour’s gender equity rule. For this election 47% of caucus must be female. That means at least 14 of the 29 MP must be female. Of Labour’s 23 electorate seats (I include Kelston), nine are female. So 5 of the 6 List MPs must be female. So David Parker would just keep his seat, but all other male List MPs would be gone.