Labour List 2014

June 23rd, 2014 at 5:14 pm by David Farrar

Labour List 2014

has released its 2014 Party List. The analysis above is my own.

The key assumption is that Labour holds it current electorate seats and also wins the four marginal seats where the incumbent MP from another party is standing down. I’m  not predicting that will happen, just saying that is a reasonable assumption for the list.

So this shows at what level of party vote, each candidate will get elected. At the 23% in the Fairfax poll only David Parker and Jacinda Ardern would make it in.

On the 27.7% Labour currently has on the average of all public polls they would get just seven List MPs, with Kelvin Davis just making it in. Note there have been no polls since the Cunliffe letter and alleged secret donations to Labour were revealed.  On the current average of the polls Labour would lose Raymond Huo and Carol Beaumont.  On the Fairfax 23% they would also lose Sue Moroney, Andrew Little, Maryan Street, Moana Mackey and Kelvin Davis.

Only if Labour get 30% of the vote, will they not be in breach of their rule to have at least 45% of the caucus female. Next time when the quota is 50%, this means male list candidates will be even worse off.

On the average of current polls Labour will be only 41% female, which is less than they are at the moment with no rule!

Very little new talent in a winnable place.  The top placed new candidate is Priyanca Radhakrishnan who would come in at 29%. She is a policy analyst with the Ministry of Women’s Affairs.

So what would Labour’s caucus look like on 27.7% (current public poll average). Their demographics would be:

  • 41% female, 59% male
  • 62% European, 24% Maori, 15% Pacific, 0% Asian
  • 24% in their 30s, 38% in 40s, 32% in 50s, 6% in 60s
  • 32% from Auckland, 12% Christchurch, 21% provincial, 15% rural, 21% Wellington
  • 76% North Island, 24% South Island
  • 88% straight, 9% lesbian, 3% gay
  • 9% entered in 1980s, 15% in 1990s, 12% in 2002 to 2005, 38% in 2008 to 2010, 15% in 2011 to 2013 and only 6% in 2014

The ethnicity is interesting. On current polls their caucus would be massively over-represented with Maori and Pasifika MPs, and under-represented with Europeans and there would be no Asian MPs at all.

Also by location, they will have twice as many Wellingtonians, as our share of the population.

Also one quarter of the caucus will have entered Parliament in the 1980s or 1990s.

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64 Responses to “Labour List 2014”

  1. Chuck Bird (4,883 comments) says:

    “88% straight, 9% lesbian, 3% gay”

    Out of the closet.

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  2. Neil (586 comments) says:

    What a pathetic list selection. Putting off the inevitable with the need for Labour to produce a new leadership candidate. Labour is “so” democratic that it seems to have wiped out their chances to win in 2017. Nanaia Mahuta’s selection at her rank is a laugh-she is pathetic and certainly not up to it.
    Can’t see Labour polling any more than 27% in the polls.

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  3. waripori (17 comments) says:

    Labour cant be all that confident in Waimakariri and Palmerston North. Cosgrove and Lees Galloway would still get in off the list though so it does not change much.

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  4. big bruv (13,888 comments) says:

    ““88% straight, 9% lesbian, 3% gay”

    The fact that this statistic is even mentioned highlights all that is wrong with Labour.

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  5. Manolo (13,767 comments) says:

    Moroney at number 10? What a waste of space the woman is!

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  6. greenjacket (465 comments) says:

    Labour is in deep trouble.
    Old party hacks like Maryan Street and Moana Mackey remain, Rayomd Huo (who?) is still there.
    It is likely that the only new MP will be a young policy analyst from Women’s Affairs whose qualification is a MA in Gender Studies (without significant professional skills or experience).
    In the past Labour have been able to field a slate of urban liberal professionals (lawyers, doctors, academics, etc) who have given the party much needed intellectual grunt – that has gone. Compare the current Labour Party with Labour Party caucuses of the past, and yu can see how the Labur Party has fallen badly and is no longer attracting talent. What is left are talentless party hacks, hanging on to keep their noses inthe parliamentary trough. Very few people on that list have the capability to be a senior cabinet Minister.

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  7. arkhad (68 comments) says:

    Wouldn’t it have been better to take all the sitting mps off the list altogether and then rank the rest?

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  8. RRM (9,919 comments) says:

    At the dawn of MMP, the idea of selling a slick presidential-style party message to bring in a lot of loyal little foot soldiers on the list probably appealed.

    But now, I should say the chickens hatched when they filled party with weakling journeymen (journeypersons?) incapable of winning an electorate seat are now well and truly coming home to roost…?

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  9. David Farrar (1,894 comments) says:

    I calculated the statistic, not Labour.

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  10. Syd-Kiwi (344 comments) says:

    Tony Milne is also a strong chance to take another electorate seat due to favourable boundary changes in Chch Central.
    All things equal, this would further increase the male/female ratio and make it even harder for the newbies on the list (Jones, Coffey).
    However, to offset that, I expect fewer Labour Electorate MPs if Labour finish with sub-30% (and National remains around 47%): Lees-Galloway in Palmerston North & Cosgrove in Waimakariri may all become list MPs; and Nash may fail to get in again.
    I expect O’Connor and Dyson to hold, but not guaranteed.

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  11. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    I think Buckingham at 64 has a very good chance.

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  12. mara (784 comments) says:

    The next time I have trouble sleeping, I’ll pull up that list and study it again, and again, and again ….. ZZZZZZZZZZ

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  13. tamati (75 comments) says:

    David, do you know why your numbers are different from NBR’s. They’ve made much the same assumptions but have slightly different results. Someone is wrong here.

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/sites/default/files/images/Screen%20Shot%202014-06-23%20at%204.40.17%20PM.jpg

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  14. Syd-Kiwi (344 comments) says:

    Tamati, my rough calculations were the same as David’s, and it appears that the NBR have failed to calculate the top up (for the parties which fail to make it). David also does not have Milne as an Electorate MP.

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  15. Mobile Michael (451 comments) says:

    Tamati – The NBR assumptions are that Labour will win the seats they currently lead in iPredict, which accounts for the difference. Tony Milne is a list prospect here, but an electorate MP at the NBR.

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  16. J Bloggs (241 comments) says:

    tamati: The assumtions are not the same. The NBR assumes that Tony Milne will win Chch Central, while DPF doesn’t. The NBR also seems to be working off the fairfax poll of 23%, while DPF is using an average polling figure of 27.7%

    Under the NBR’s scenario, Tony Milne’s electorate win would ensure that no list MP’s would make the cut.

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  17. Syd-Kiwi (344 comments) says:

    Mobile Michael, it is not the only difference: after accounting for that difference, Tamati, under David’s figures needs 32%, whereas the NBR result is 33.33%.
    David’s figures are correct. The NBR have failed to factor in the top-up.

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  18. mjw (396 comments) says:

    Nice table dpf. Thanks :-)

    A less conservative approach to the 8 electorates would be to sum the probabilities on iPredict for a Labour win in those electorates. That comes to 6.53. So Labour will likely only get 6 or 7 of those seats.

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  19. DrDr (114 comments) says:

    Totally uninspiring. The same old faces taking up positions that should be given to new talent. People like King, Goff, Mahuta etc. should follow the example of Mallard and Dyson and live or die on their electorate seat results.

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  20. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    Aunty Hellen brought us this. The Liarbour freakshow is utter hogwash.

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  21. s.russell (1,642 comments) says:

    It would be interesting to see an analysis of the “paper majority” position in some of these uncertain seats: Christchurch Central, Port Hills, Waimakariri and Maungakiekie particularly. The proposed boundary changes and then the final (altered) ones have left the situation in those places rather murky (at least to me!).

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  22. Syd-Kiwi (344 comments) says:

    MJW, Chch Central also needs to be considered. 7/9 would be par, which reduces each % required in David’s table by .8%.

    Overall, a great picture showing Labour’s challenges (to meet their quota) and to get any new list MPs (only 2 look more likely than not).

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  23. wreck1080 (3,912 comments) says:

    “policy analyst with the Ministry of Women’s Affairs”

    Honestly?

    This is why labour are in trouble.

    She will be great at spending other peoples money on ineffective & frivolous programmes but have no idea about how life works in reality.

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  24. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    I am glad that my aunty King is safe….

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  25. big bruv (13,888 comments) says:

    Given that Kelvin Davis is the only one who may be able to lead Labour back to power then I am very happy to see him in a crap list position.

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  26. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    Joke of the day by Cunliffe:

    “We’ve just got an overabundance of talent really and so there was quite a lot of discussion. It was a very pleasant and well-mannered discussion.” – Explains why there was a delay in releasing the list Source: 3 News.

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  27. jaba (2,141 comments) says:

    gender equality is interesting here.
    The “top” 3 are male.
    60% of the “top” 10 are male and then 3 of the woman in the top 10 are King Mahuta and Moroney who I assume are the best female politicians they have and potential leaders .. holy shit

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  28. KiwiSteve (14 comments) says:

    What an inspirational new bunch. Can’t wait to see them in action

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  29. kowtow (8,470 comments) says:

    mara

    If you study that list over and over to get to sleep ,you’ll have some seriously bad nightmares.

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  30. I Say Look Here (57 comments) says:

    Dear God

    Please don’t let Labour get more than 31.19% of the vote.

    We do not need another washed up TV weatherman in Parliament.

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  31. greenjacket (465 comments) says:

    “We’ve just got an overabundance of talent really and so there was quite a lot of discussion”
    Damn that’s funny – I just spilled my drink.

    Actually, I wonder if Sir Cullen’s Sidekick is actually David Cunliffe? They both seem pretty articulate while writing outrageous nonsense they can’t possibly actually believe in.

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  32. dime (9,972 comments) says:

    I just did some quick research on their top 20. the ones who would actually run the country.

    Feel free to correct it as it was quick.. i looked for top qualification and year in the private sector.

    enjoy:

    Best Qualification Time In Private Sector
    1    David Cunliffe Master of Public Administration 4 years
    2    David Parker BCom/LLB 17 years?
    3    Grant Robertson University – doesn’t state degree? 0 years
    4    Annette King BA from Waikato 0 years?
    5    Jacinda Ardern BA Communications 0 years
    6    Nanaia Mahuta MA Social anthropology )Professional Maori) 0 years
    7    Phil Twyford ?? 0 years
    8    Clayton Cosgrove MBA and BA (Triple Major) degrees – his words 3 years
    9    Chris Hipkins BA Politics 6 years
    10    Sue Moroney Nothing 0 years?!
    11    Andrew Little LLB 0 years
    12    Louisa Wall University – doesn’t state degree? 0 years
    13    David Shearer MSc (Hons) 0 years
    14    Su’a William Sio hard to say. Mentions polytech 0 years
    15    Maryan Street University 0 years
    16    Phil Goff MA Politics 5 years?
    17    Moana Mackey Bsc Biochem 4 years
    18    Kelvin Davis Teaching Degree 0 years
    19    Meka Whaitiri Masters Education 0 years but professional maori on iwi boards
    20    Megan Woods PHD History (future finance minister) 3 years

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  33. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    greenjacket (390 comments) says:
    June 23rd, 2014 at 7:15 pm

    @greenjacket – That was a statement made by our Messiah Lord Cunliffe of New Lynn county…….It took me a half an hour to gain my senses back when I first read that….

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  34. Southern Raider (1,829 comments) says:

    Carol Beaumont #29? Great depth of talent or small fish swimming in an even smaller pool

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  35. kowtow (8,470 comments) says:

    Isaylookhere

    WeatherMAN?

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  36. Pete George (23,561 comments) says:

    One interesting move in the list is Michael Wood, being rewarded for trying to manipulate a favourable result in Epsom by being dropped from 32 to 39.

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  37. mjw (396 comments) says:

    Guess who said this?

    “If the electorate system meant mainly white men became candidates, the MMP system allowed for the list to be used ‘to make sure that balance is rectified’ “

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  38. mjw (396 comments) says:

    Go on, guess. Here, let me help: was it …

    (a) Sue Bradford
    (b) John Key
    (c) John Minto
    (d) David Cunliffe
    (e) Moira Coates

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  39. Reid (16,454 comments) says:

    “If the electorate system meant mainly white men became candidates, the MMP system allowed for the list to be used ‘to make sure that balance is rectified’ “

    Yes. Trouble is, putting forward a second-rater because they have a particular politically-correct attribute excites only those who are politically correct, and watching that second-rater perform is then, forever after, to the rest of us, about as exciting as watching women’s tennis instead of men’s. It simply doesn’t have the same kapow, and all the munting and wailing about the humanity of it all doesn’t change that and it never ever will.

    And now silly old Liarbore have even gone and passed a law on themselves making it compulsory that all of their supporters must in fact whether they like it or not watch the second rate womens side all the time from now on. What a bunch of raving mentals.

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  40. OneTrack (3,093 comments) says:

    big bruv -“Given that Kelvin Davis is the only one who may be able to lead Labour back to power then I am very happy to see him in a crap list position.”

    Davis looks high enough that they can gift TTT to Hone and get DotCom in to government with them.

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  41. Rich Prick (1,701 comments) says:

    Oh I do hope Labour gets less than 24% of the party vote.

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  42. Fisiani (1,039 comments) says:

    Every electorate gain for Labour kicks out another on the list. That’s why Kelvin Davis has to win TTT cos if Labour poll 27% he is not in parliament again.

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  43. mjw (396 comments) says:

    Ahem – Reid, I don’t find much to disagree with in your first paragraph. However, for the source of the quote the correct answer is (b). John Key. Sorry.

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  44. mister nui (1,027 comments) says:

    Anyone who cares about the future of our country, has to do everything in their power to make sure that Kelvin Davis is elected in Te Tai Tokerau.

    We cannot afford to have that racist prick Harawira involved in our political system any longer. What more, it will also ensure that the Kraut will have effectively wasted 3 million big ones.

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  45. J Bloggs (241 comments) says:

    Dime: I think you’ll find Louisa Wall’s degree is in Social Policy & Social work. She has had a good sporting career (don’t know if you’d consider that as private sector employment).

    Factoid of the day – Louisa Wall and Paula Bennett were both members of the Massey University Students Association Executive committee at the Albany campus at the same time.

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  46. I Say Look Here (57 comments) says:

    @ Kowtow

    Sorry, a little loose in my terminology maybe, but I’d still rather go with that than “weatherperson”.

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  47. greenjacket (465 comments) says:

    1. Labour have serious leadership problems. Cunliffe is discredited, and Robertson, Little and Ardern have not shown the kind of skills needed to lead a party in parliament.

    2. The Labour caucus is devoid of talent. There has been no rejuvenation. It is likely the only new candidate in the coming election will be someone who was a lowly Policy Analyst at Women’s Affairs with a MA in Gender Studies. Seriously? Labour couldn’t find some hotshot senior manager from the public sector, or a respected lawyer, or, well someone, anyone, with credible work experience? That level of talent in caucus must be incredibly dispiriting for Labour supporters.

    3. The Labour Party machine is in disarray – I think even their research unit is defunct. The way Labour are treating their donors, it is likely that no-one in business will donate to Labour again, so the party will be broke.

    4. Leaderless talentless, disorganised and broke – ordinarily, a big party could survive this because of the tribal loyalty of its supporters and eventually rebuild. BUT now Labour supporters have an alternative – the Greens, who are more left-wing than Labour, disciplined, well organised, and with effective leadership. Wouldn’t Labour supporters start to drift over to the Greens?

    By 2020 Labour will have folded, and been absorbed by the Greens.

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  48. Rich Prick (1,701 comments) says:

    Too right greenjacket. Labour is a bugger’s muddle, but at least at number one on the list Cunliffe is safe. However, after 20 September he’s anything but.

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  49. emmess (1,428 comments) says:

    Policy Analyst at Ministry of Women’s Affairs, eh?
    These policies are all bullshit
    There, anyone can do that job.

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  50. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    @ Dime

    ” Andrew Little LLB 0 years”

    He worked for the EMPU and it’s related organisations for nearly 25 years as a house lawyer. If we’re being technical, trade unions are a private sector business. They have no statutory basis, they are a private sector organisation.

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  51. Crusader (314 comments) says:

    Greenjacket is right. This is – for the Greens – a generational opportunity to become the main party on the left. Labour are floundering like a drowning man. If the Greens just got a charismatic leader (or two), they would probably do it.

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  52. rosscalverley (83 comments) says:

    Two candidates at 20, dpf? Plus Soper is standing for Invercargill, not Clutha-Southland.

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  53. burt (8,269 comments) says:

    Mallard for PM 2014 !

    No … Then resign Mallard, you’ve done your dash. king too, go on, there is nothing here for you but sitting out your time on the tax payers dime. Have you no self respect, it’s over.

    The grand socialist dream has failed again and you old buggers are standing in the way of the new generation presenting the same old socialist pap to the younger generation to start the party cycle again.

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  54. davidp (3,581 comments) says:

    That drives a stake through the heart of any notion that Kelvin Davis will let Harawira win in order to bring Harre in to parliament. If Davis doesn’t win the seat then he’ll be the in-out-in-out man.

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  55. s.russell (1,642 comments) says:

    Labour has remarkable talent.

    Labour has a remarkable talent.

    Labour has a remarkable talent for repelling people of talent.

    And anyone of talent who accidentally gets in? Dump em down the list, stab em in the back, get them out of Parliament before the infection spreads.

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  56. Chuck Bird (4,883 comments) says:

    If DPF correct on who are homosexuals then heterosexuals are greatly underrepresented even if there are not a few more homosexuals in the closet.

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  57. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Definitely a party for perverts, deviants, paedophiles, leeches, and bludgers. How bloody disgusting. Is there a straight and real person in the filthy Labour movement?

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  58. Pete George (23,561 comments) says:

    That’s a filthy disgusting comment igm.

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  59. Northland Wahine (667 comments) says:

    Derek Cheung wrote in the herald this morning

    “Labour hopeful Kelvin Davis’ ranking on the party list is a veiled message that Labour is gunning for the Te Tai Tokerau seat, and voters there should vote for him if they want Mr Davis in Parliament, a party insider says.

    The list, released yesterday, had Mr Davis at number 18 – but if Labour wins the 27 electorates it expects to, it will need 29 per cent of the party vote for Mr Davis to return to Parliament, if he does not win the seat off incumbent MP and Mana leader Hone Harawira.

    On current polling, that will be a challenge.

    The seat will be closely watched in September’s election, because a victory for Mr Davis could push the Mana Party into oblivion, along with the Internet-Mana partnership. That could hurt parties on the left because of wasted votes.

    A party insider told the Herald Mr Davis would have had to be in the top 10 to ensure a seat in Parliament. His ranking of 18 would blunt a Mana tactic of asking people to vote for Mr Harawira because Mr Davis had a safe list spot and would be an MP anyway.”

    I swear labour is setting Davis up to fail.

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  60. Pete George (23,561 comments) says:

    It could be said that Labour are setting themselves up to fail. They hardly look like setting themselves up for success.

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  61. deckboy (18 comments) says:

    dime
    “I just did some quick research on their top 20. the ones who would actually run the country”
    What about doing the calculations on the Greens for us.

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  62. Paulus (2,627 comments) says:

    I still believe that Helen Kelly will be leader in the not too distant future.
    Remember that the Labour leader does not have to be an MP. The leader is appointed by the Unions.
    Little squeaky Little will be the monkey in Parliament until Annette resigns her Rongotai seat to the organ grinder Kelly.
    Watch this space.

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  63. phobius (46 comments) says:

    Used to be a fan of Tamati, until he came out as being…………..in the Labour Party!

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  64. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Labour will give preference to deviants, wait and see. They already have a preference for men/women, so deviancy is an accepted party norm. We may hear more from the young man allegedly attacked at a Labour Party parliamentary social event, there is obviously a lot being hidden by media, and the disgusting party.

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