The key assumption is that Labour holds it current electorate seats and also wins the four marginal seats where the incumbent MP from another party is standing down. I’m not predicting that will happen, just saying that is a reasonable assumption for the list.
So this shows at what level of party vote, each candidate will get elected. At the 23% in the Fairfax poll only David Parker and Jacinda Ardern would make it in.
On the 27.7% Labour currently has on the average of all public polls they would get just seven List MPs, with Kelvin Davis just making it in. Note there have been no polls since the Cunliffe letter and alleged secret donations to Labour were revealed. On the current average of the polls Labour would lose Raymond Huo and Carol Beaumont. On the Fairfax 23% they would also lose Sue Moroney, Andrew Little, Maryan Street, Moana Mackey and Kelvin Davis.
Only if Labour get 30% of the vote, will they not be in breach of their rule to have at least 45% of the caucus female. Next time when the quota is 50%, this means male list candidates will be even worse off.
On the average of current polls Labour will be only 41% female, which is less than they are at the moment with no rule!
Very little new talent in a winnable place. The top placed new candidate is Priyanca Radhakrishnan who would come in at 29%. She is a policy analyst with the Ministry of Women’s Affairs.
So what would Labour’s caucus look like on 27.7% (current public poll average). Their demographics would be:
- 41% female, 59% male
- 62% European, 24% Maori, 15% Pacific, 0% Asian
- 24% in their 30s, 38% in 40s, 32% in 50s, 6% in 60s
- 32% from Auckland, 12% Christchurch, 21% provincial, 15% rural, 21% Wellington
- 76% North Island, 24% South Island
- 88% straight, 9% lesbian, 3% gay
- 9% entered in 1980s, 15% in 1990s, 12% in 2002 to 2005, 38% in 2008 to 2010, 15% in 2011 to 2013 and only 6% in 2014
The ethnicity is interesting. On current polls their caucus would be massively over-represented with Maori and Pasifika MPs, and under-represented with Europeans and there would be no Asian MPs at all.
Also by location, they will have twice as many Wellingtonians, as our share of the population.
Also one quarter of the caucus will have entered Parliament in the 1980s or 1990s.