This entry was posted on Thursday, June 26th, 2014 at 6:41 pm and is filed under NZ Politics.
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d4j – What is a “struggling middle income kiwi taxpayer” ? Your life and debt is what you make of it.
Remember that 5% of tax payers pay 50% of tax (might not be quite right there, but close). If those 5% (rich pricks) find a way to change that, you and the government are screwed eh? Don’t piss off the wealthy…
The poll tonight is all MOE stuff, perhaps a slight transfer from Labour to greens.
I personally can’t see National polling anything above 47% on election day.
Winston will find a cause and gather votes from somewhere, can’t grasp why but he always does.
I don’t think the likely outcome has shifted much from 2011, National just short of being able to go alone, needing ACT and UF to get over the line. With the exception of the death of the Maori party and the rise of IM, I don’t think post September arithmetic will be much different from now; the right with a 1 or 2 seat majority.
So Redbaiter, after all your carry on about the CCCP moderating a National government for change, and now it looks likely that the horribly progressive Mr Key might get to govern alone, you will be voting two ticks National.
The standard is starting to sound like a bee hive. According to the flat earth society inmates over there, the TV3 poll and the other low ones are rogue so should be dismissed. Micky mouse is packing a sad with John Armstrong from the Herald for being mean to his dear leader. All we need now is the drag queen prentice to put a few right wing posters to the sword.
1. Why this poll out on a Thursday instead of a Sunday?
2. Why poll only 750, generally they poll 1000?
3. Is TV3 rushing to maximise the impact of Liu allegations before Messiah is proved innocent?
4. Is it to undermine Ching’s statements?
5. Is there a orchestrated attack on Cunliffe by MSM?
I am very worried that that National think it is in the bag because it is a long way from polling day and remember a week is a long time in politics.
I cannot see National getting anything like 47%
The problem is that the left of centers a) have lots of left choices and b)are ideologically driven and will vote because of the causes they believe in irrespective of how wacky they may be, while middle class and the battlers and workers will just go to work for the day and not even register let alone vote
Key mentioned in a revealing article a few years ago that his modus operandi was to make incremental changes and to do so in a way that brought the voters with him. He is doing remarkably well in that respect. It is pleasing to have a politician who is not trying to declare war on the voters. Key also understands why MMP was brought in the first place: voters were tired of the lack of consultation of the 4th Labour government and the Bolger-Richardson National government.
I am absolutely supportive of Rogernomics, but its implementation and “buy-in” by the voters was appalling, and that has been exploited by the left for many years to scare voters away from National. That leads us to another good point about Key: he has slayed the “you can’t trust National” meme of Labour. As a result, he has returned National back to being the natural party of government. In that position National can over the long run bring about institutional change.
Of course, the more belligerent like Redbaiter find this analysis to be “prog” rubbish. But it is totally clear that running around shouting “putsch, putsch” isn’t going to get National anywhere, and will just result in National being turfed out for a decade.
I’m a Pakeha voter, but would be quite comfortable to see John Key bring the Maori Party on board after the election – even if he doesn’t need their support. Virtually all of the ‘Maori’ statistics have headed in the right direction since 2008, which I think speaks volumes for his (and National’s) willingness to work with them.
The biggest threat to Labour, long term, is an awareness amongst Maori that National ain’t the bad guys Maori have always been told they are. That’s a good thing, for Maori and New Zealand.
My realpolititik instinct tells me this. So too does my sense of decency.
I have no doubt that were we under FPP, a Key led National government, without the need for coalition partners, would have implemented more right wing reforms. Rogernomics was an absolute necessity and NZ’s fortress economy had gotten so bad under Muldoon that even with the shock of the complete removal of farming subsidies, tariff reform, floating the dollar etc etc, the benefits to the economy were seen relatively quickly hence Labour’s re-election in 1987. But even under FPP, the NZ electorate has a limit to the amount of austerity and reform that it can stomach before throwing the reformers out. Mike Moore came within a few hundred votes in Selwyn in 1993 from ousting the Bolger government that had so decisively trounced Labour in 1990 because Richardson tried to complete Roger Douglas’ unfinished business.
Key is a student of political history and a realist when it comes to the new limits that MMP imposes on what a reforms a government can get away with. Thanks to Winston’s grandstanding after the cup of tea kerfuffle and low information National voters thinking Key had it in the bag, National really only just scraped in in 2011 – these are the realities of MMP. We can admire Tony Abbott for his bold and decisive reforms (and I do) but if Australia had MMP, he’d be dog tucker and if he went to the polls right now under their preferential voting system, he’d still be dog tucker. Ideological purity is pointless if you are never in power. Key could and should’ve done more but lets be honest about where NZ would be if Helen had won again in 2008 or Goff in 2011. Those on the right who decry Key as Labour lite must face the awful reality of MMP that it has dragged the country closer to its overall countrywide core which mildly centre left. If a major party strays too far from that core (as Labour has by lurching to the left) then it will not garner centrist voters. If you want to live in a place where the centre of the electorate is solidly right wing then you’re going to have to move to Mississippi or Utah.
As for this poll, the MOST important thing that National can and should take from the poll is the lesson of 2011 – do NOT take your vote for granted. Your GOTV must be world class and fully operational and Key and the party machine should fight as if they are at 46% and level pegging with the left block and wring very last centre right vote out and get them to the polls. Complacency is not an option especially when the media will do all they can to assist the left no matter how battered and bruised they might look right now.
Abbott has to deal with the Senate which is elected on a version of PR and it looks like blocking a significant number of Abbott’s reforms. Some of them are so unpopular they may save Abbott from himself.
Conservatives are 2.8% not 1.8%. Craig should go hard out after the NZF vote. Look at his positions especially the grey power vote and go for it. Winston is past it but Craig is not. With the right marketing the oldies will flock to him.
Voters hoping for a National lead government must not get complacent although ipredict has a National lead government up to 81%. I will have a better idea who to vote for after hearing both Winston and Colin the Family First Forum on the Family. They will not be debating but answering questions.
NX (602 comments) says:
June 26th, 2014 at 7:21 pm
Abbot has got guts commitment conviction and principle.
I agree, he does.
He has the guts & conviction to:
• Introduce a generous, government funded, paid parental scheme
Any idiot can have guts and conviction. What is it worth though, unless you look at what they are doing with it?
Yes, government funded. Right. Not taxpayer funded? When it comes down to it, what you are saying, is that he is making other people pay you a benefit while you raise your children instead of supporting them yourself. It’s just another benefit, where the slave class toil away for the lazy dependent class. Not quite as nice a sound-bite is it?