Seven election factors

June 12th, 2014 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

John Armstrong at the Herald lists the seven factors he thinks will matter in the election:

  1. John Key’s personal popularity.
  2. The ‘no-change’ election.
  3. The alternative.
  4. The myth of the ‘missing million’ voters.
  5. The economy, of course.
  6. The Big Dot-commotion.
  7. Winston Last. But not least.

I’d put No 5 as very important.

He rates the parties also in terms of campaign readiness:

  • National 8/10
  • Labour 6/10
  • Greens 9/10
  • Maori Party 3/10
  • ACT 6/10
  • Mana/Dotcom 5/10

 

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31 Responses to “Seven election factors”

  1. Dead Earnest (160 comments) says:

    It’ll be extremely interesting to see if the surge for National the showed in the last Roy Morgan poll, follows through in the results from more reliable polling entities.
    My therory is, that the whole Dotcom saga has given the swinging voters in the centre a serious fright and driven them into National’s camp. The thought of a wealthy foreigner deliberatly trying to manipulate our election for his own advantage, doesn’t sit well with most Kiwis.

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  2. Pete George (23,680 comments) says:

    While it could come under the heading “The alternative” there’s a fairly significant factor not mentioned – Labour competence, or apparent lack thereof.

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  3. davidp (3,587 comments) says:

    » Mana/Dotcom 5/10

    The Dotcom party only hired their leader last week, they have few policies, and haven’t hired any other candidates. Their visionary founder-for-life may well be sitting in a US prison cell before the election, and has a reputation for not delivering on promises or paying his bills even when he is in-country. How does this warrant 5/10? The Civilian Party is probably in better shape because at least people are supposed to be laughing at them.

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  4. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (894 comments) says:

    I think the FatCon factor is the biggest one. I still believe FatCon has something nasty on John Key which will be released by either resident communist Campbell or resident socialist Corrin Dann in a big show which will sink National at the last minute. Nothing good ever happens to NZ and a third term Key Government is way too good for this country. I sound bit negative, but I am frustrated with the MSM of this country….

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  5. queenstfarmer (782 comments) says:

    SCS: no doubt John Campbell will try for a big desperate hit on Key, but look at what happened with his last effort. It was laughable, and sank without trace. Meanwhile fraudster Dotcom is desperately trying to purchase dirt on someone, anyone.

    The issue is how the inevitable media hit is handled. The “teapot tape” is a perfect example of what NOT to do. Key (or his advisers) majorly botched that, which massively contributed to Winston’s return.

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  6. wiseowl (928 comments) says:

    Party readiness:

    Conservatives 9/10

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  7. Dead Earnest (160 comments) says:

    SCS and QSF; Better have a drink guys it’s not going to be that bad!
    Krim Dom has claimed the scalp of Banks, but Il think the public see that as enough. Most you speak to even on the left have some sympathy for Banksie and he could hardly be regarded as a popular politician.
    If Krim decides to dish dirt at the last minute on Key -one of the most popular political figures in NZ history- I predict it’ll backfire spectaculary.

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  8. tvb (4,494 comments) says:

    The Conservatives are far from ready because Colin Craig does not have a coherent message. But that could change which is why John Key is holding off endorsing them for now.

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  9. Pete George (23,680 comments) says:

    Party readiness:

    Conservatives 9/10

    Craig is ready to go in which electorate?

    Party list? Other candidates?

    Detailed policies? This doesn’t look campaign ready: http://www.conservativeparty.org.nz/index.php?page=Issues

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  10. wiseowl (928 comments) says:

    tvb
    perhaps you should stop listening to the msm and parroting their mistruths.

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  11. wiseowl (928 comments) says:

    Just worry about Dunne PG.

    Goneburger.

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  12. Tarquin North (352 comments) says:

    Is that a negative six for Labour?

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  13. Pete George (23,680 comments) says:

    It”ll be interesting to see what happens there wiseowl, three low profile novices versus and old campaigner somewhere near the end of his career, but no worries for me. It’s a lot of fun being a free spirit politically.

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  14. Dead Earnest (160 comments) says:

    Dunne will hang in there, The people of Ohariu aren’t stupid.
    My guess is that if Conservatives are polling over 2.5% “Machiavellian Murray” will roll over and give him East Coast Bays. A good list position and another 3 years of geo-political intrigue would skid Murray’s wheels far more than attending electoral clinics in Auckland’s suburbia!

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  15. adze (2,129 comments) says:

    Mana supporters masquerading as the “Ohariu voters association” (or whatever it was called last time) will no doubt try to spike Dunne’s campaign, but he might be lucky and get one more term.

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  16. OneTrack (3,218 comments) says:

    “The thought of a wealthy foreigner deliberatly trying to manipulate our election for his own advantage, doesn’t sit well with most Kiwis.”

    And it’s telling that the hard-left are completely happy with it.

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  17. publicwatchdog (2,797 comments) says:

    Laila Harre – who helped set up the Corporate-Controlled Organisation- the Auckland Supercity is ‘left wing’? Not in my considered opinion. Penny Bright

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  18. publicwatchdog (2,797 comments) says:

    That’s why I’m standing against John Key in Helensville. My personal goal is to help slice 20 points off John Keys personal popularity status by focusing on general endemic corruption in NZ and specific corruption (in my considered opinion) of ex- Wall St banker John Key – one of the most spin-doctored politicians on the planet? Penny Bright

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  19. Sponge (226 comments) says:

    Penny – “in my considered opinion”?

    Snigger……

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  20. publicwatchdog (2,797 comments) says:

    ‘Sponge’ – I correctly predicted John Banks would be committed to trial and would be found guilty of electoral fraud. So – suck that up! (As it were …. ;) Kind regards Penny Bright http://www.dodgyjohnhasgone.com

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  21. Sponge (226 comments) says:

    Penny, a stopped clock is right twice a day.

    If we were to believe you we would all be better off moving to Zimababwe for a more pure democracy.

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  22. publicwatchdog (2,797 comments) says:

    Gosh you talk a lot of twaddle ANONYMOUS ‘Sponge’.Not a consultant or private contractor are you perchance? Kind regards Penny Bright

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  23. Pete George (23,680 comments) says:

    “and would be found guilty of electoral fraud”

    It wasn’t electoral fraud. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_fraud

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  24. Sponge (226 comments) says:

    No Penny, I am a small business owner in Christchurch. If you care enough it will be easy to find out who I am.

    Your corruption “crusade” would be better served in Christchurch where ether is real, actual, corruption rather than the nonsense you focus on.

    With the utmost respect of course Penny.

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  25. Sponge (226 comments) says:

    Sorry not “ether” but “there”

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  26. polemic (460 comments) says:

    Why doesnt he rate the Winston First Party or are they unrateable

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  27. polemic (460 comments) says:

    I think that National should be very worried, the Banks saga hasnt helped either ACT or Internet party really because they are both looking very non vote worthy.

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  28. publicwatchdog (2,797 comments) says:

    Here you go ‘Sponge’.

    This is the ‘Anti-Corruption ACTION PLAN’ upon which I campaigned for Auckland Mayor in 2013, (and polled 4th with 11,723 votes).

    http://www.pennybright4mayor.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ANTI-CORRUPTION-WHITE-COLLAR-CRIME-CORPORATE-WELFARE-ACTION-PLAN-Ak-Mayoral-campaign-19-July-2013-2.pdf

    Have a read – you may then learn something about corruption?

    (Meant of course, in a caring way :)

    Kind regards,

    Penny Bright

    PS: Here’s some more information, which helps to prove how Auckland Council is an agent for the corporate 1%:

    http://www.occupyaucklandvsaucklandcouncilappeal.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/OCCUPY-AUCKLAND-APPEAL-APPLICATION-BY-APPELLANT-BRIGHT-TO-ADDUCE-NEW-EVIDENCE-pdf.pdf

    (This is an Auckland High Court document .)

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  29. noskire (842 comments) says:

    Pen, just wondered if you could help.

    The last time my recycle bin was picked up, the contents weren’t entirely emptied, and to top things off, the bin wasn’t quite in the same place that I had left it.

    But I had also inadvertently placed a non-recyclable VHS box-set of the entire series of Friends in the bin. My bad, as I need the receipt back so I can get a refund.

    Anyway, I went to your website to see if you could help, but it seems to have been inactive for several years.

    What should I do?

    Yours

    Nos

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  30. publicwatchdog (2,797 comments) says:

    Not sure what website you were looking at ‘noname’ – but I think if you focused and ‘put your mind to it’ – you would ring Auckland Council (if you are from the Auckland region) Ph (09) 301 0101 and ask them for advice?

    Or check out Auckland Council website? http://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz

    Not difficult really – if you just try using your brain?

    (Meant of course in a caring way :)

    You may remember that you have PAID Councillors and Local Board members who could help you?

    With a tiny bit of effort you could look on the above-mentioned Auckland Council website and find their contact details?

    Kind regards,

    Penny Bright

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  31. deadrightkev (507 comments) says:

    Pete George

    After only three years Colin Craig and the Conservatives have 6000 members and just opened a second office in PN.

    They have a high profile CEO, a nationwide organisation and a very good head office administration team. They have funds.

    They are the most election ready party in NZ. I expect that when the dust settles on 20 September that planning and organisation will be reflected in the party vote.

    How does that compare to United Failure? Not well I shouldn’t think.

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