A 21% chance he would die in office

July 30th, 2014 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

Speaking to a full house of mostly middle-aged or elderly people in Nelson, Conservative Party leader Colin Craig introduced the man he wants to be their MP – 81-year-old .

Good to see he is active at that age and wanting to engage. I couldn’t resist morbidly working out the chance that, if elected, he would not survive the three year term. He has a 93.3% chance of getting through the first year, 92.4% the second and 91.5% the third which combined is a 78.9% chance, or a 21% chance of not making it.

That got me thinking about other elderly politicians. Winston will be 70 next April and according to Stats NZ has a 10.8% chance of dying in office in the next three year term – if he is elected.

For the John Key haters out there, he only has a 1.1% chance of dying in the next three years, and if he gets a 4th term, only a 1.4% chance of dying during that Parliament!

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36 Responses to “A 21% chance he would die in office”

  1. Harriet (5,118 comments) says:

    Well he is the same age as Larry King – so age and politics doesn’t get any complaints from me.

    But I bet he don’t look as good as Joan Collins. :cool:

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  2. deadrightkev (507 comments) says:

    I am loathe to think what NZ society will be like after a third socialist term led by John Key, let alone a fourth term. I am very much a right thinking voter waiting for reform to save NZ.

    If the voter and National are dumb enough to accommodate an aging drunken Winston after September 20 they deserve all they get. I cannot see anything positive for the future out of that coalition.

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  3. Manolo (14,031 comments) says:

    Or Raquel Welch!

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  4. EAD (1,286 comments) says:

    “All the John Key Haters out there”

    I don’t hate John Key, in fact I’d quite like to have a beer with him as he seems like a warm and engaging character. I just don’t have much respect for him and I am disappointed I got fooled by him in 2008. After all, quotes such as these led me to believe he was something he clearly is not:

    – “The Government has to stop borrowing as much money; if we don’t, quite frankly New Zealand will be downgraded and interest rates will go up for all New Zealanders”
    – “I’m not deeply ideologically driven. I believe in good center-right politics”
    – “Working for Families is communism by stealth”

    So we have a choice when we read articles such as this – we can go on focusing on things like people’s ages, get the punters running around in circles discussing issues that won’t affect their lives or we can debate things like:
    – Have the National Party borrowed much money
    – Is the National party really “centre-right”
    – Has the National Party taken an axe to this “communism by stealth”

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  5. duggledog (1,582 comments) says:

    I don’t hate John Key, he’s a great guy. But I am feeling a modicum of disappointment of how little we have moved in six years. We need a tank to start rolling forward over the trenches of govt. waste, Maori privilege etc etc. There are three coming through right now, I don’t care which one the Nats enlist

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  6. Harriet (5,118 comments) says:

    “….“Working for Families is communism by stealth” …”

    When Joe Hockey the aussie treasurer suggested after the last budget about getting rid of aussie’s WFF, Howard spoke out publicly that it is a tax break and not a benefit. DPF has since listed stats proving that is the case in NZ, as very few people recieve more than they pay in tax. They don’t get anymore than $50wk / $2500pa.

    Single people and the childless in NZ simply pay far too much tax. And far too many people recieve services from the government that they should not be getting. Free sexual healthcare is one.

    National voters need to wake up as it’s Key too, who is involved in communism by stealth.

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  7. Redbaiter (9,503 comments) says:

    National’s Blue Green leader Nick Smith has been such a success, with his idiot RMA concoction gifting the Marxist driven “environmental” movement the best foothold they could have hoped for in their long march to control us and tyranize us.

    Smith may be a lot younger than John Green but to me he seems much more weak minded. I have never understood why Nelson people keep re-electing this left wing stooge.

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  8. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    What a disgusting low swipe – talk about desperation. This is Gotcha politics at in its poorest form.

    The message, don’t vote for Winston he could die in office – which he could do, and at his age, it might be more likely – but to make something of it in this way is pretty damn low in my opinion.

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  9. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    Let’s all play this silly game shall we – see how it feels when it’s reversed.

    John Key – both parents died before the average life expectancy rate. His father was invalided by a heart condition and died very young, vastly increasing the PM’s chances of the same. The PM is light skinned, living in NZ and male, therefore dying of melanoma is possible. Just being male makes him more likely to die of cancer.

    Then there are the risks specific to his life style – he travels more than most, he has had several death threats made against him, and so on.

    I wonder, given all the negative statistics and the PM’s genetics and life style, just what the chances of him dying during his term in office would be?

    Is it nice to talk about the PM in this way ? No, I agree it is not – so what makes it nice to talk about Winston in the same way?

    And here’s another shocker – if the PM died we’d get Bill 21% English as our Prime Minister!!!

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  10. peterwn (3,299 comments) says:

    These mortality statistics would seem to include those with known health issues. The 81 year old gentleman probably does not have any significant known health issues (or he would not be standing) so his odds of surviving a three year term in Parliament may be better than average. however the stresses of being a MP may be his downfall thus increasing the risk of his being carried out of the House feet first.

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  11. ChardonnayGuy (1,211 comments) says:

    Thank you for reminding us that Winston Peters isn’t immortal and that at some point, he will have to succumb to morbidity, mortality and human frailty. It’s just that it seems that he and his various entourages of grandstanding sycophants have already been in Parliament for far, far too long as it is. Reminds me of the three characters in Sartre’s No Exit imprisoned in that tastefully furnished living room bouncing off each other. Locked in a room with Winston for eternity. Now *that’s* my idea of cruel metaphysical punishment.

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  12. fernglas (167 comments) says:

    Age is not a bar to making a meaningful contribution to one’s society. Given the number of young politicians who have resigned before the end of term, statistically this dude is more likely to stick it out, and with 80 years under his belt he is likely to have as much acquired wisdom as any pair of young zealots. Perhaps Craig for once has had an idea that is tenable.

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  13. Gulag1917 (982 comments) says:

    With Mr Key there is a 60% chance he will change policies mid term.

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  14. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    Gulag1917 (658 comments) says:
    July 30th, 2014 at 9:06 am
    With Mr Key there is a 60% chance he will change policies mid term.

    Mr Key has some policies? I can’t wait to hear them all – would be nice for him to actually say something meaningful for the electorate instead of slinging abuse at all the opposition.

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  15. trout (944 comments) says:

    If what is meant by ‘policies’ are just more quick think ideas that will buy more votes then we do not need them. What we need is careful management of social and economic systems so that Kiwis feel secure and ambitious; and given that we have come thru the CH Ch E/q and the GFC relatively unscathed there is much to be grateful for.

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  16. dime (10,095 comments) says:

    Did you factor in Winstons lifestyle? I believe the dude likes a smoke and a drink :D

    I have to be honest DPF, not a post i would have made. its like when that idiot mccain was running for office. same sorta smears.

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  17. big bruv (14,132 comments) says:

    Dime

    To be fair, I don’t think McCain was an idiot at all. However, what McCain did show was appalling judgement in selecting a total moron as a running partner.

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  18. G152 (385 comments) says:

    Age in political office ?
    How about Sir Winston Churchill as an example ?

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  19. David Garrett (7,523 comments) says:

    Good Morning Judy…wasn’t it you posting on here not that long ago that Key was “very ill” and that it would “soon” all become public? Nine months or a year ago IIRC… I admit at the outset that I could have the wrong commenter…but you will of course confirm it for us one way or another…

    My two cents? Winston is likely to emulate his namesake and live on into gaga hood before succumbing at a ripe old age…

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  20. Nukuleka (346 comments) says:

    With someone called God (sorry, Lorde) being used by the Electoral Commission to promote the youth vote it seems rather nice to have some oldies in Parliament to ensure that the voice of the rapidly ageing NZ population is also heard. As long as the member isn’t a drunken and senile sot I don’t have any problem with old MPs.

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  21. BlairM (2,364 comments) says:

    To be fair, I don’t think McCain was an idiot at all. However, what McCain did show was appalling judgement in selecting a total moron as a running partner.

    Yes, this is true. Fortunately, his advisers protested his original selection of Joe Lieberman and he made the much wiser choice of Sarah Palin instead.

    I’m still very grateful he lost to Obama though. God help us all had he become President.

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  22. dime (10,095 comments) says:

    “To be fair, I don’t think McCain was an idiot at all. ”

    i think hes a moron who is in the wrong party. hes getting worse too.

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  23. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ David Garrett (6,426 comments) says:
    July 30th, 2014 at 9:51 am

    Absolute rubbish – I know nothing about Key’s health – the only thing I have said is I doubt he will complete a third term, and will opt out of politics before the next election – sorry, you’re attributing it to the wrong person – or your memory is failing you.

    You are right about Winston – squeaky wheels tend to hang on the longest – I should be around till 100! :P

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  24. big bruv (14,132 comments) says:

    “and he made the much wiser choice of Sarah Palin instead.”

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

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  25. Redbaiter (9,503 comments) says:

    Bigot’s forced laughter grows ever more hollow as he feels his Progressive island shrinking more each day.

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  26. Griff (8,159 comments) says:

    Redtard’s lunacy becomes ever more apparent as he sees the support of his beloved conservative con being eroded by the day.

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  27. jakejakejake (138 comments) says:

    Don’t vote for Winston he could die in office. Don’t vote for Finlayson or Robertson, they might catch the AIDS.

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  28. thedavincimode (6,869 comments) says:

    as he feels his Progressive island shrinking more each day.

    Really? Is this old boy the tide that was going to sweep all us knuckle-dragging commie homo prog losers off the face of the earth?

    What’s your address? I’ll send some nice men around in a van to collect you. They’ll be wearing white coats and they’ll give you something to make you feel better.

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  29. Redbaiter (9,503 comments) says:

    “going to sweep all us knuckle-dragging commie homo prog losers off the face of the earth?”

    That’s funny, I thought you had denied being a queer.

    A few too many “My Goodnesses” and “Oh dears” to keep up the facade I guess.

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  30. Griff (8,159 comments) says:

    I think the only way to make retard feel better would be a bullet.

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  31. David Garrett (7,523 comments) says:

    Judy: So It wasn’t you making dire predictions about Key’s supposed terminal illness..OK …I seem to recall (and you’re right, the memory isn’t what is was) that it was a person posting as a woman…and you are a woman who posts a great deal about things of which you clearly don’t have much knowledge…

    Jake: Shame on you! You are not a fan of “marriage equality” then??

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  32. Warren Murray (313 comments) says:

    I think it rather distasteful to be running the numbers on the probability that someone will be dead in 3 years.

    John Green stands little chance of taking the seat, regardless of his age / health. Doesn’t stop him campaigning, and the Cons will need a lot of committed people like him to get over 5%.

    Im not a Cons fan, btw, pretty disappointed in Farrar’s blog atm though

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  33. thedavincimode (6,869 comments) says:

    Aahh Russell. You’re an idiot, but at least you’re our idiot. :P

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  34. wiseowl (928 comments) says:

    With a background of living on the land, dealing with a business that is one of the toughest in the country,employing people,
    compliance issues,regulations council shit ,I would say this is the type of person that is needed in parliament.
    He would be exuding common sense and wouldn’t need 21 advisors to make a bloody decision.

    Go John! and the Conservatives.

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  35. OneTrack (3,218 comments) says:

    “For the John Key haters out there,”

    We know who you mean.

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  36. OneTrack (3,218 comments) says:

    “And here’s another shocker – if the PM died we’d get Bill 21% English as our Prime Minister!!!”

    Still more than twice as good as David 8% Cunliffe.

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