Anyone want to bet against Germany winning

July 10th, 2014 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

I tipped Germany to win the World Cup a few weeks ago, and their 7-1 killing of Brazil suggests they may well do that. It is hard to comprehend how rare a 7-1 result is in a World Cup semi-final – let alone against Brazil. This is like the All Blacks losing 49-5 in a World Cup match.

They’re up against Argentina, so Latin America will be behind them no doubt.

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29 Responses to “Anyone want to bet against Germany winning”

  1. metcalph (1,359 comments) says:

    Pity the Poor English.

    They will have to cheer for either the Argies or the Krauts…

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  2. alex Masterley (1,490 comments) says:

    The Argies looked good against the Dutch this morning, but really lacked that killer touch.
    Except, you cannot count out the Messi factor in the really big games.
    The Germans on the other hand, admittedly against a defence that was AWOL, looked imperious.
    My gut feeling is Argentina, on the basis of the Messi factor, but I will happily be proved wrong.

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  3. JMS (297 comments) says:

    A (usually) low scoring sport like football gives more weight to the luck factor.

    Way harder to predict than the likes of Rugby or Basketball.

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  4. kowtow (7,591 comments) says:

    Germany!

    Shove it to the South Americans at “home”.

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  5. RRM (9,434 comments) says:

    I don’t follow soccer but I understand more than 3 goals by either side and it’s a high-scoring game, and any winning margin of 2 goals or more is a pretty strong victory for the winner.

    So on that basis, 7-1 against Brazil in soccer is more like the All Blacks going down by something like 100-14 innit?

    (An absolute thrashing, with one consolation goal/try to the loser, and maybe a couple of inconsequential penalties. Good on ya, thanks for playing!)

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  6. Dirty Rat (383 comments) says:

    “They’re up against Argentina, so Latin America will be behind them no doubt.”

    Faceplant time

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  7. MH (624 comments) says:

    The NZ Rugby League team shamefully called the Kiwis did better by losing to Australia in 2007 by 58 – 0.
    Humiliating,laughable,ignominious.
    What a shame soccer promotes the philosophy that it is OK to tackle illegaly in 80% of the field but in the penalty box one is awarded a free kick, the whole premis of their rules is based on hacking a player down if he dares to use skill to go around or through you. And the attacker goes down in a hollywood tackle in any case. So much jersey grabbing as well spoils the game. Then they harass and intimidate the referee.Such is the beautiful game ? Give me the manliness that Cunliffes so aspires to in the field of Rugby Union which the feministrae adore. The soccer boys need a good punch up to keep the game honest. But I’ll watch it and admire the skill when it is played correctly.

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  8. unaha-closp (1,111 comments) says:

    They’re up against Argentina, so Latin America will be behind them no doubt.

    Like we always support Australia?

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  9. Manolo (13,339 comments) says:

    I will. Argentina is money in the bank!

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  10. labrator (1,745 comments) says:

    I think the Germans ruthlessly executed against a weakness they found in Brazils defence. I doubt anything like it will happen again. What are the odds on a 0-0 draw at the end of 90 minutes?

    Also, they should stop this silly penalty thing and just keep reducing a player from each team every 5 minutes until someone scores.

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  11. Phil (125 comments) says:

    @RRM,

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-does-germanys-blowout-of-brazil-compare-to-those-of-other-sports/

    This is US-centric sports, but the NFL equivalent (which has a scoring system and frequency not dissimilar to Rugby) says it would be like two evenly matched teams playing to a scoreline of 62-7.

    They also note in a separate article that the statistical probability of Germany scoring seven goals in the match was 0.02%.

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  12. Zapper (925 comments) says:

    A bit extreme there Dirty Rat, maybe just try a facepalm.

    MH, it appears you know nothing about the game which won’t help you like it. A foul in the penalty area is a penalty (hence the name) and fouls in any other part of the field lead to a free kick.

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  13. tas (591 comments) says:

    unaha-closp (1,102 comments) says:
    July 10th, 2014 at 12:36 pm
    They’re up against Argentina, so Latin America will be behind them no doubt.

    Like we always support Australia?

    I think most latin american fans will cheer for Germany — or any team that plays against Argentina. Such is the rivalry.

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  14. southtop (262 comments) says:

    Feeling smug having picked the two finalists some weeks ago and still think the Argies will do it based on the Mesi factor. However an unprotected Blitzkreig on Mesi(ah) could change the result.

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  15. JMS (297 comments) says:

    I think most latin american fans will cheer for Germany — or any team that plays against Argentina. Such is the rivalry.

    Apart from the German-Brazilians of southern Brazil and the Chileans, I would guess most Latin Americans will support Argentina.

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  16. David Garrett (6,349 comments) says:

    MH: did you graduate from Special School?

    There are about six rules from memory in the aptly named Beautiful Game…I think I heard the other day that in rugby there are 248 or some such figure “laws”…and that’s just the ones that apply this year…Your comments on the beauty of brawls are about 50 years out of date…hopefully…

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  17. Colville (2,069 comments) says:

    Cannot possibly compare Brazil to the All Blacks. Brazil only has a winning percentage circa 70% in world cups and circa 50% wins in the olympics. Pretty shit really.

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  18. muggins (2,983 comments) says:

    Yeah,
    You can’t compare the All Blacks and Brazil.
    In my opinion the final will be close , just the one goal in it, or it might go to a penalty shoot-out.
    Germany’s 7-1 win against Brazil was an aberration.
    I would pick Germany, but it could easily go the other way.

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  19. MH (624 comments) says:

    I grew up when there were men teachers at Primary school. It’s not the amount of laws it’s the spirit of the game in which they are played. Semantics about penalty and fouls and free kicks. Why bother having a penalty box at all ? Rugby evolved to allow the ref to award a penalty try when in the opinion of the ref a try would have been scored had it not been for foul or consistant infringing/deliberate interference.The whole game of soccer revolves around fouling, what sort of role modelling is that ? Why not just award the goal. No wonder TV 1 resorts to fowls to predict the results. Rugby evolved so we could hack legally, then the Poms took that as well as a decent set of sprig marks away from us as a mark of manhood. Concussion from all those headers must be increasing.

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  20. gryfon (14 comments) says:

    Actually DPF I’m told by Brasilian friends that they’ll be rooting for the Germans. Argentina is not popular in Brazil. ..

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  21. Manolo (13,339 comments) says:

    The Brazilians can say whatever they want, but Aguante Argentina. A ganar el domingo!

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  22. kowtow (7,591 comments) says:

    There are 17 Laws of the Game.

    MH you’re talking nonsense when you say it revolves around fouling. Fouls are just that and are punished according to type and severity of danger to the player and where the foul takes place. Yes there is “simulation” but that is considered to be unsporting and can result in a yellow card as is holding or shirt pulling, likewise “dissent” towards officials.

    It’s up to the refs to control same.

    And if you want to talk about role modelling or histrionics you should have seen Israel Dagg’s antics while they went upstairs to decide on this try ,he was jumping up and down and his arms were flapping so much I could have sworn his jocks were on fire,pathetic.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/10082646/Match-saving-tackle-denies-Highlanders

    It’s probaly much safer to say both games are now very different and leave it at that…….other than rugby was invented by a player cheating at football.

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  23. Pete George (22,780 comments) says:

    From what I’ve seen of the world cup there has been a noticeable absence of players going ape at the referee like I’ve seen in other games previously,

    It was possibly made clear to the teams that there would be no tolerance of it. Whatever, it’s good to not see.

    I’ve seen a few blatant jersey pulls and whole body holds, it must be huge risk taking or brain fades, it’s so easy to be seen doing it.

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  24. David Garrett (6,349 comments) says:

    Kowtow: Nicely put…I am amazed there are as many as 17 laws: the offside rule; no hands; ball behind your head on throw in; no tackles from behind; indirect free kicks;…I am struggling to think of the six I thought there were..

    MH: I certainly hope you are taking the piss…my contempt for the whole “rugger bugger” ethos was as its height about 20 years ago, when a dozen or so young lads broke their necks and became paraplegics every season…I saw that oaf Grizz Wylie – then coach of some team or other (was it the all blacks?) on TV basically saying the guys who had been thus injured were wusses…

    In fairness it does seem to have improved since…

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  25. kowtow (7,591 comments) says:

    DG

    Field of play.the ball.no of players.players equipment.the ref.Assistant refs.duration.start and restart of play.Ball in and out of play.Method of scoring.offside.fouls and misconduct.( these last 2 the majors possibly)free kicks.penalty kick.throw in.goal kick.corner kick.

    In case anyone wants to bone up this is a useful you tube link from fifa.

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  26. MH (624 comments) says:

    just a bit,but the whole game seems predicated on getting to the penalty box where the attacker tries to convince the ref of foul play contrary to most sporting ethics or desired results such as sportsmanship or simply kicking the ball into the back of the net becomes secondary to obtaining a penalty shot. It is not a such a beautiful game as claimed.

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  27. MT_Tinman (2,985 comments) says:

    “Anyone want to bet against Germany winning”

    Me! Me! Pick me!

    Germany have played their game (in fact their half, the second half v Brazil was decidedly average – admittedly understandably so).

    My pick for the final is 1-0 to the Argies, maybe after extra time.

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  28. Fisiani (945 comments) says:

    4,000,000,000 people are expected to watch the final.
    Opening ceremony of Olympics was 700,000.000 Nearly 6 times more for football.
    Football is THE global sport.

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  29. Pete George (22,780 comments) says:

    I’d be very surprised if anywhere near 4 billion people watch the final. That’s half the world population.

    Reports on past world cups say that audience claims have been grossly exaggerated.

    The most glaring example of past audience exaggeration was in China during the 1998 World Cup. Audited figures were taken from one small area in Shanghai and extrapolated to the whole country to claim 10.8 billion “views” for the tournament. This was at least 8 billion more than the reality.

    Claimed audience for 2006 was 715/1 million but only 260m was verified.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/news-and-comment/why-fifas-claim-of-one-billion-tv-viewers-was-a-quarter-right-438302.html

    For 2010:

    FIFA says 909.6 million television viewers watched at least one minute of the 2010 World Cup final at home between Spain and the Netherlands, and the total likely topped a billion when adding online and public places.

    FIFA’s research says 619.7 million people watched 20 consecutive minutes of Spain’s 1-0 extra-time win.

    http://espn.go.com/sports/soccer/news/_/id/6758280/least-1-billion-saw-part-2010-world-cup-final

    4 billion seems to be far too high.

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