Armstrong on why he thinks Peters will not run for East Coast Bays

July 24th, 2014 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

As captivating and entertaining as such a contest would have been, Winston Peters is unlikely to throw himself feline-like into the pigeon loft and stand in Murray McCully’s seat.

The idea of putting himself up as the New Zealand First candidate initially seemed like a very cunning plan to disrupt the political footsie being played by ’s Conservatives and the National Party in order for the former to get a toehold in Parliament and the latter to remain in power.

But the warning bells ought to have been ringing in the New Zealand First camp after Christine Rankin, the Conservative Party’s chief executive, urged Peters to “bring it on”.

It would give the Conservatives a lot of publicity, and allow them to position Craig as the natural successor to Peters.

Peters is not in the business of giving rivals who are after the same votes as him the means to raise their profile. When it comes to winning the seat, Peters is (for once) handicapped by his refusal to reveal his post-election intentions. East Coast Bays is one of National’s safest seats. Around two-thirds of both the electorate vote and party vote in the seat went to National in 2011.

Peters would need a big chunk of the National vote to shift his way. But why would National voters back him and risk seeing him install a Labour-led government?

All Craig would need to say is “Vote Peters. Get Labour”. 

Yeah I can’t see East Coast Bays voters voting for Peters if it means he may make David Cunliffe Prime Minister, and support a Labour-Green-Mana Government.

Also Peters hates losing electorate contests. He has never got over being beaten by Clarkson and then Bridges. Losing to Craig would be an unendurable burden for him.

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14 Responses to “Armstrong on why he thinks Peters will not run for East Coast Bays”

  1. BeeJay (72 comments) says:

    This brings to mind the quote by Henry II – “Will no one rid me of this meddlesome (Winston)?”

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  2. gravedodger (1,566 comments) says:

    Peters already has the distinct look of a cold chop on the BBQ next afternoon, reheating will not improve it, just let the dog have it.

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  3. Fisiani (1,039 comments) says:

    If McCully is not on the ballot paper then the good people of East Coast Bays can still Party Vote National like the people of Epsom and Ohariu. They are intelligent enough to know that voting for Colin Craig with their electorate vote will bring in perhaps 5 or 6 MP’s voting with National on confidence and supply. It would cement in place the Conservatives as a voting block for 2017 and beyond. Winston has no intention of being thrashed by Craig in ECB. Party leaders need to campaign nationwide and cannot have a local campaign of any size. Both Key and Cunliffe have sizeable majorities and do not need a local campaign to save their seats. The last poll had the Conservatives at 3.7% and it could certainly be 4% by September. National cannot allow over 100,000 Party votes to be wasted.

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  4. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    ‘voting for Colin Craig with their electorate vote will bring in perhaps 5 or 6 MPs’
    Not likely when they are polling below 1%.

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  5. Unity (584 comments) says:

    Which one is it? Fisiani said the Conservatives are polling at 3.7% but mikenmild says it is below 1%. Still there are 2 months to go and I’m sure there will be changes as the debate heats up. Personally I do hope the Conservatives do well in ECB because National needs someone in there who will rein them in on race and democracy issues. I agree that Winston more than likely won’t stand because he couldn’t bear to lose – yet again.

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  6. All_on_Red (1,583 comments) says:

    I’d love to see Cameron Slater do to Winston what he did to Andrew Williams and that’s stand as an Independent in any Electorate he stands in just so he can speak at the meetings and really give him shit!
    It was just classic what happened to Williams. He ran away in the end.

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  7. James Stephenson (2,180 comments) says:

    Which one is it? Fisiani said the Conservatives are polling at 3.7% but mikenmild says it is below 1%.

    dpf’s numbers on the sidebar of the front page say 1.3%.

    I think Key’s instincts might say that letting the CCCP sink or swim on their own is the call to make. There isn’t really any requirement to balance out left-wing muppets with self-declared-but-not-really-right-wing ones, is there?

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  8. Ross Miller (1,704 comments) says:

    Perhaps someone with more political nous than either Fisiani or Unity can explain to me why any National Voter should contemplate giving their vote to CCCP when the man himself has stated that he is open to doing a deal with Labour.

    So no matter which, Winston First or the Wingnut, you could still end up with a Greens/Labour/Winston/Craig/Hone/Internet Party Government.

    All one can really say is ‘be careful what you wish for’.

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  9. peterwn (3,273 comments) says:

    Fisiani – Either Murray stands for East Coast Bays or National would need to put up an ‘ambassador’ to campaign for the party vote. National once declined to put up a candidate in Wellington Central to give ACT a clear run, and found itself ‘locked out’ of at least one local ‘meet the candidates’ meeting.

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  10. tvb (4,425 comments) says:

    I am leaning towards Key backing Craig now that Craig is being positioned as going after NZF vote. Winston thinks Craig is an ant which he would like to squash. But if Craig splits the NZF vote he keeps Winston out and assuming National gifts him East Coast Bay’s then it would be worth supporting Craig. Winston is a far more skilful politician but he is a has been and on the way out.

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  11. Don the Kiwi (1,761 comments) says:

    National could well hesitate halping Craig while Craig has made referenda a bottom line requirement for any coalition.

    I think he was unwise to do this.

    And I wish Craig would take some deportment lessons – he looks like a crippled crab when he walks – he needs to learn to stand up straight, head and shoulder back, and walk resolutely as if he is really going somewhere.

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  12. ROJ (121 comments) says:

    Maybe Key will play the long game.

    Don’t support Craig, he remains irrelevant as he should be, in a not very long time Peters fades to the old folks home (where his current supporters are making room for him)

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  13. Unity (584 comments) says:

    Ross, I’m going to a Colin Craig meeting this evening so hopefully I will know more. I can’t for one minute imagine Colin Craig going into coalition with Labour, especially with their rag tag of hangers-on, no matter what he has said. I don’t think he imagines it will happen either. I don’t think National should make accommodation for the Conservatives. I think they should do it on their own.

    I agree with you Don about Colin Craig’s bad deportment. He looks worse since he lost all that weight – gangly in fact. However, it’s what he stands for (no pun intended) that is the main issue.

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  14. G152 (343 comments) says:

    Pitiful Peters isn’t going to stand anywhere.
    Judging from his performance in Parliament he’s more propped up than supporting.
    Be good to see the back of his yes men and the effects of the whine box

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