Gower on what Peters will do

July 29th, 2014 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

writes:

Kim Dotcom has done John Key a big favour.

He has pushed Winston Peters into Key’s arms and made it highly unlikely that the NZ First leader would choose the Labour-Greens over of National if he held the balance of power.

Key’s dalliance with Conservative Party leader Colin Craig was all about having some insurance against a Labour-Green-NZ First Government.

One of Key’s big worries was that that Peters would go with the Labour/Green side in some form. But the arrival and ongoing rise of the Internet-Mana party has changed all that.

On current polling numbers, a Labour-led Government would need the Greens, NZ First and Internet-Mana to get anywhere close.

And David Cunliffe has repeatedly and pointedly refused to rule out working with Internet-Mana to form a Government.

Despite his previous antipathy towards the Greens, I think Peters is now close enough to them on central economic issues to work with them in Government.

But Internet-Mana is a different story – Peters won’t want a bar of them.

Peters thinks Dotcom is a criminal and Mana Party leader Hone Harawira is a separatist.

This is what he told me when I interviewed him on The Nation two weeks ago, and asked if he would work with Internet-Mana: “We don’t back race-based politics, we’re in this for everybody in this country as equals and the second thing is the idea of somebody coming here with a criminal record and setting up after five months a political party to run New Zealand is simply an outrage”.

That’s pretty much a “No” to Internent-Mana right there.

So looking at the current political landscape, a Labour-led Government might need the Internet-Mana actually in a formal coalition itself, or use it’s votes to get a majority.

Any way Internet-Mana is involved would be anathema to Peters.

Let’s get a few things straight here:

  • Peters is not going to form a Government that involves Dotcom.
  • Peters is not going to form a Government that involves Harawira.
  • Peters is not going to form a Government that involves Annette Sykes (she would be in on current 3 News-Reid Research polling).
  • Peters is not going to form a Government that involves John Minto (close to getting in on current polling).

Peters is looking for a legacy.

He does not want that legacy to be the fourth player propping up an untested Labour-Green-Internet-Mana combo, cutting out a popular Government out on the other side.

I think Gower is right that Winston is not keen to put a Labour-Green-Mana-Dotcom alliance into Government. However he may support Labour on condition that Cunliffe doesn’t give Greens or Mana any ministerial roles. But the problem will be they’d be able to block any legislation he agrees with Labour.

However Peters, if he holds the balance, may over-reach and demand too much of National. I don’t think Key will agree to a deal at any price, and if so then Peters might still go with the left.

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58 Responses to “Gower on what Peters will do”

  1. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    ‘I don’t think Key will agree to a deal at any price’
    I do.
    “Arise, Sir Winston”

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  2. Manolo (13,755 comments) says:

    Peters is looking for a legacy.

    Bollocks.

    The venal is looking for the baubles of office and will do whatever it takes to get them. Even if it means a pact with hopeless Labour, the anti-progress Greens, and the meretricious Internet-Mana.

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  3. ShawnLH (5,017 comments) says:

    “But Internet-Mana is a different story – Peters won’t want a bar of them.”

    I think that is a fair call. I cannot see Peters going into a coalition that might have Minto and Sykes in it.

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  4. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    It might very well be unlikely that Peters would support such a coalition. That won’t stop him from holding it out as a possibility in order to secure maximum negotiating advantage.

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  5. Tarquin North (297 comments) says:

    I thought Winston always said he would negotiate with the party who gets the most votes on election day? Or am I just losing it?

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  6. Monty (977 comments) says:

    I agree that Winston if he returns to Parliament will want to be part of a positive legacy (not be resoponsible for destroying a fourth Government. As well as the Mana-Internet Party being idiots he is also well aware that the Greens are toxic to the future progress of NZ as a nation.

    But there are a few other points. I think Winston has a grudgeing respect for John Key (Ron Mark advised me this about three years ago).

    On the left – Winston is hated by many in Labour (he significantly contributed to their destruction in 2008). Winston despises the Greens and the Mana and Internet Parties even more. Winston’s ego will not allow him to play third fiddle to the Greens. He will need to line up for second hand baubles. Winston knows the four(+) headed leftard hydra-beast will not last through the first six weeks of government.

    On the right – Winston knows the only chance for stable Government will be to support the Nats where he will have a direct line to John Key. He will get a couple of meaningless policy concessions and then told to be a good boy. I think the co-alition talks will go something like this

    WINSTON: John if you want my support you will need to make me Minister of Foreign Affairs.
    JOHN : Winston piss off. you can be minister of fuck all, get a car, and a good salary and do as you are told.
    WINSTON: Not good enough. Stamps his feet. I want to be a very important minister something that will suit my ego
    JOHN: Piss off Winston and do as you are told. or go and join the clusterfuck on the left – go an line up behind russel, that crazy bitch, the hater and wrecker, and the fat Germans puppet. You have no options Winston. You know it. offer expires in thirty seconds.
    WINSTON: [meekly] ok i’ll be minister of fuck all and do as I’m told. I’ll be your bitch.
    JOHN: be a good boy and I’ll give you that knighthood in three years. but you step out of line once ……..
    WINSTON: yes john
    JOHN: yes what???
    WINSTON: yes sir

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  7. mjw (396 comments) says:

    Paddy’s logic is appealing, but ultimately fruitless. Winston Peters is a Sphinx, ‘unwilling to speak until he can expect to say something that will amaze the whole room’. If everybody expects Winston Peters to do a particular thing, it simply makes him more likely to do the opposite.

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  8. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    WINSTON: John if you want my support you will need to make me Minister of Foreign Affairs.
    JOHN: I can do better than that, how does Co-Prime Minister sound?

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  9. James Stephenson (2,176 comments) says:

    “Arise, Sir Winston”

    Cheap at twice the price.

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  10. Pete George (23,559 comments) says:

    Chris Bramwell ‏@rnzgallerychris

    Winston Peters says he won’t be part of a govt that includes Maori Party or Mana.

    That limits his options.

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  11. BeaB (2,123 comments) says:

    I’d make him Governor General so he can wear that plumed hat and look exactly what he is – a tinpot tosspot.

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  12. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    mjw: I am with you…And I would be astounded – and very very disappointed – if Key ever made the great Charlatan “Sir Winston”

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  13. tas (625 comments) says:

    Based on current polling, if NZF do hold the balance of power, National will have a much stronger negotiating position than Labour, as there would simply be fewer parties that need to be satisfied. If, god forbid, Winson is part of the government, I hope National has some alternative support parties that will allow the govt to continue functioning if Winston has a tanty.

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  14. James Stephenson (2,176 comments) says:

    @DG – given the way such honours are tossed around like confetti for doing a well paid job for a few years, or being good at chasing an inflated pig’s bladder, I’d say the old bugger’s probably earned it for services to not knowing when to give up and fuck off.

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  15. Colville (2,268 comments) says:

    He wont be needed.
    Nats to get around 48% on the night with UF and ACT in support.

    Bye bye Whinny, into obscurity you go, you lying cheating thieving old booze sodden cu*t.

    Meant in a caring way of course :-)

    Edit. The fact he wont be needed may not stop Key offering him a spot at the table to keep UF and ACT in line. Also throws Shane Jones a lifeline to come back from his holiday in the Pacific :-)

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  16. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Colville: that has to rate as the “post of the day”!!

    Meant in a serious lawyer-like way of course….

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  17. Rich Prick (1,700 comments) says:

    Better still, do a deal, stick the old bastard in the Speaker’s chair and let him argue with himself all day long.

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  18. JMS (330 comments) says:

    I hope National has some alternative support parties that will allow the govt to continue functioning if Winston has a tanty.

    Winston is an eternal tanty.

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  19. Unity (583 comments) says:

    Perhaps it’s wishful thinking but I have a feeling the Conservatives may look a little better for Key after election day, if only for confidence and supply.

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  20. tas (625 comments) says:

    Unity: The conservatives won’t be in parliament. I’m happy to put money on that.

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  21. Monty (977 comments) says:

    I believe that in the absence of Asset sales which gave the Left something to get their teeth into (as they did in 2011) the left will struggle for relevance. my hope for 2014 is

    1. Kelvin wins TTT
    2. Mana internet get 4.5%
    3. Winston get 4.9% no seat
    4. Conservatives get 3%
    5. Act 1.3%
    6. Dunne loses his seat
    7. Greens poll up at 12% until the election. but election day result is 8% due to bad weather and good shipment arriving
    8. Labour poll worst result ever at 20% and all list MPs join dole queue.
    9. Nats massive unprecedented win . Absolute majority due to high levels of trust earned from superb management of economy

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  22. Yvette (2,814 comments) says:

    Winston Peters says NZ First will sit in Opposition rather than go into coalition with any “race based” party.
    On his way into Parliament today, Peters repeated earlier comments that NZ First might sit on the cross benches rather than go into a coalition that undermined its principles, including its opposition to what it calls “Maori separatism”.

    Haven’t heard that before have we?
    No, not since the last time Peters promised to sit on the cross-benches, accepted Minister of Foreign Affairs and went flying around the world, fooling around with Condoleezza Rice.

    Déjà vu, Winston. Is your bloody memory going? We’ve heard that untruth before.
    A legacy? Of lies.

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  23. burt (8,269 comments) says:

    Yvette

    I won’t be swayed by the baubles of office !

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  24. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Actually, making the prick Speaker might be quite a good move…it would hugely appeal to his ego…he might relish the challenge to equal or better Sir Lockwood Smith, far and away the best Speaker in modern times…

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  25. burt (8,269 comments) says:

    Peters is great in opposition where he can’t pass legislation like tax cuts for the racing industry while failing to declare large donations from families with large interests in racing.

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  26. Rich Prick (1,700 comments) says:

    DG, and get that knighthood he craves.

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  27. ShawnLH (5,017 comments) says:

    “Actually, making the prick Speaker might be quite a good move”

    That’s a bloody good idea David.

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  28. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Rich Prick:…and it’s a role in which he can’t do much damage…He would huff and puff and stroke himself, but the business of parliament would largely go on regardless..

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  29. Tarquin North (297 comments) says:

    Monty, if Kelvin wins up here nothing else matters, the Harawiras and the German will be purged along with their mottley hangers on. If that happens National will come in on a land slide and all will be happy in the garden once again, Northland will be proud once more and regain the Ranfurly Shield we so richly deserve! (sorry, lost it a bit at the end!)

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  30. Richard (857 comments) says:

    Winston will do whatever his whiskey bottle tells him to do.

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  31. G152 (337 comments) says:

    Better still, do a deal, stick the old bastard in the Speaker’s chair and let him argue with himself all day long.

    And lose…
    Better to drop him off in Bellamys with an open bottle and closed doors

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  32. Colville (2,268 comments) says:

    Winston hasnt got the stamina mental or otherwise to be Speaker.
    10 years ago maybe.
    These days he is good for a 3 minute throwaway comment that the media wont be allowed to question him on. That is it.

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  33. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,903 comments) says:

    Can you even start to imagine the complete and utter shambles you would have with a dyslexic, alcoholic, amnesiac, Alzheimers case as speaker?

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  34. Griff (7,689 comments) says:

    Then there is the drink
    A pissed peters as speaker sounds like fun.

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  35. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Colville: the Speaker’s role is actually not that onerous…Other than during question time – when he is always present – his Deputies and Assistants do most of the leg work…

    One thing that could be extremely problematic though: The Speaker must be on hand to return to the Chamber to rule on any formal objection to a ruling made by an Assistant/Deputy….That might give rise to a rather interesting spectacle if Mr Speaker Peters is recalled to the Chamber after – say – 8.30 pm…

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  36. burt (8,269 comments) says:

    David Garrett

    The problem I see is the speaker must be impartial. Winston has made a career on being popular and saying what he thinks people want to hear – being impartial and being popular are poles apart. He ( Winston ) wouldn’t know what to do if he wasn’t promoting himself.

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  37. burt (8,269 comments) says:

    Perhaps National could say they will consider working with Peters if he pays the $158,000 back ! Just keep repeating it and remind people that Winston still has a debt to the tax payer before people vote him into a highly paid tax payer funded job.

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  38. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    burt: quite so…but the business of parliament still went on under the hysterical and highly partisan screech owl Wilson…Admittedly Peters would effectively be an opposition appointment…but he would be acutely aware it was his last chance to leave some legacy, and who knows, he might just re-discover what he was taught about fairness and equity at law school 100 years ago…Trying to better Lockwood Smith’s record might just appeal to his ego…

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  39. mara (784 comments) says:

    Winnie as Speaker would be hilarious for a short time. A very short time. Actually the old alpha, devious cove is genetically gifted. To have reached the age he has with all his “habits” shows that he is really a tough, surviving old boot. As one who has “habits” myself, to some degree, I have some admiration for this Darwinian survivor. Seriously.

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  40. RRM (9,917 comments) says:

    Premise 1: Winston said he will not do A.
    Premise 2: Winston is a man of his word.
    Conclusion: Winston will not do A.

    Mr Gower appears to be committing the fallacy of assuming Peters’ word is his bond…?

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  41. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Mara: I agree….his namesake of course had “habits” as least as harmful as Luigi’s, and he lived to be 90…apparently for the last few years he thought he was rooster, but I guess his brain had well earned a rest…

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  42. Barnsley Bill (983 comments) says:

    Racehorses can be written off at a rate of 50% per annum. Anybody believing that Winston Peters will not whore himself to the highest bidder is an idiot.
    Legacy schmegacy. If the old drunk crook gets up and over 5 % he will go with the highest bidder. His last turn at trough will be a big one.

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  43. Mark (1,488 comments) says:

    We can all carry the hope that National gets a clear majority and parks all of these minor parties on the cross benches and works with then only on a case by case basis rather than giving away stupid policy positions to parties that cant even muster the 5% threshold level.

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  44. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (888 comments) says:

    Fellows do not forget the following:

    1. Crim DotCon’s “da bomb” on September 15th. As this is the last straw for Messiah, toxic Greens and No Mana parties watch out for the desperation from clowns from the left led by John Campbell to make a huge drama out of that. Crim DotCon knows anything which is off target will backfire big time on him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he even puts out some unsubstantiated lie, example: John Key is a CIA agent undercover or some crap like that. John Campbell will produce a special episode about “da bomb” on election eve…..

    2. The mother who sold her soul – Laila Mother Harre is going to take on John Key in Helensville. She is looking forward to debating John Key in candidate meetings. I am worried that John Key won’t be able to handle her. The holy mother who is an economic wizard could tear apart John Key on economic matters.

    Bad time for National and John Key.

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  45. tvb (4,418 comments) says:

    I know Annette Sykes and she is a far more level headed person that her public impression. In fact I do not recognise the person she is said to be. I like her.

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  46. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Sir Cullen: going to be a busy race in Helensville… One of Penny No So’s mates is running…and according to a flyer I saw today, Penny herself seems to be in the running…that would make sense to them: TWO dipshit no hoper independents having a crack …twice the chance of winning!!

    Tvb: with all due respect to you, if you think that you are probably one of the “useful idiots” lenin referred to…the woman is batshit crazy, and as dangerous as a tiger with a toothache…

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  47. altiora (279 comments) says:

    With respect to his refusal to work with Maori and Mana parties: I take my hat off to Peters, he is bloody cunning.

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  48. KiwiGreg (3,255 comments) says:

    Has NZ journalism really got to the point where this is written: “or use it’s votes to get a majority.”?

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  49. altiora (279 comments) says:

    tvb: she may be “in private” but her public persona is such that she thinks nothing of whipping up anti-Pakeha sentiment among certain Maori to achieve her political aims.

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  50. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    KiwiGreg: The standard of English in the MSM these days is less than is acceptable at my daughter’s school…and she is 13..howling errors – especially in the on-line versions – every single day…

    To misquote Archie Bunker: “Mister we could use a man like Frank Haden again…” but of course I am just an old fool who doesn’t accept that “language is constantly evolving”…the excuse for sloppiness since I was at Uni 25 years ago.

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  51. tvb (4,418 comments) says:

    Annette Sykes is not crazy. She is very level headed and normal. I like her but not her politics. She is pitching herself to an audience.

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  52. georgebolwing (846 comments) says:

    Winston only wants one thing as a legacy: to be PM. Great Speakers are remembered by political tragics, former PMs are taught about in schools.

    I don’t think that is will become an issue, since I think that Winston is well passed it and the field is getting very crowded out in conspiracy land, meaning that he is unlikely to make it back, but if he has the votes needed to form a Government, I am sure that one of his conditions will be that he hold the warrant as PM for some period (say a year). Labour might be desperate enough this time to agree to something like the Treasurer/Minister of Finance arrangement that applied in National/NZF 1996-1998 Government: Peters would be PM, Cunliffe would the First Minister of the Treasury (the UK Prime Minister holds the ancient office of “First lord of the Treasury”), and actually lead the government, just like Bill Birch did most of the work in the finance portfolio. This would allow Winston is say that he was PM.

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  53. Barnsley Bill (983 comments) says:

    A couple of earlier commenters mentioned Davies winning TTT. Forget it. He is invisible, no signage in the North. None. Labour have hung him out to dry again. A vote for labour is a vote for the Harawira crime family and Kim Dotcom.

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  54. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    George bolwing: Not in 100 years…I don’t believe even Cunliffe would allow that…

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  55. hj (6,996 comments) says:

    Rt Hon Winston Peters : Why did the immigration Minister, who was working for all New Zealanders, expand work permits to over 79,000 foreign students, which means it is not export education at all, and when Australia abolished the—

    Hon Steven Joyce : What a load of rubbish!

    Rt Hon Winston Peters : I know you are a load of rubbish, but I would like to ask my question.

    Mr SPEAKER : Order! Just ask—

    Rt Hon Winston Peters : Can I stick to my question, not you?

    Mr SPEAKER : Order! The member will just complete his question.

    Rt Hon Winston Peters : Well, you heard what he said.

    Mr SPEAKER : Just complete the question.

    Rt Hon Winston Peters : I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker. There is a certain member over there who has barracked every time a question was asked, from the very beginning. Frankly, he is tiresome and boring—

    Mr SPEAKER : Order! Now the member—

    Rt Hon Winston Peters : —and you should stop him.

    Mr SPEAKER : Order! I want to allow this member the opportunity to ask his supplementary question and I do not want any interjections coming from my right-hand side.

    Rt Hon Winston Peters : Why did the immigration Minister, who was supposedly working for all New Zealanders, expand work permits to around 79,000 foreign students, which means it is not export education at all that is happening there for them, when Australia abolished these work permits after it realised that foreign students were earning money in Australia to repay loans back in their own countries for their international school fees in Australia?

    Rt Hon JOHN KEY : Firstly, I am not sure that the member is right that all of them got work permits. Secondly, if you look at export education, it is an industry that earns New Zealand about $2.6 billion a year. It has added 28,000 jobs to New Zealand. Actually, the member is right about one thing, and that is that quite a lot of these students who come to New Zealand from countries all around the world do get off their backsides and work in a cafeteria, they do go and work in bars around New Zealand, they do clean motels around New Zealand to pay for their education, and what happens with many of them is they actually stay in New Zealand. They become long-term citizens of this country and they add to the fabric—

    Rt Hon Winston Peters : I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker.

    Rt Hon JOHN KEY : Well, I have not finished my answer.

    Mr SPEAKER : Order!

    Rt Hon Winston Peters : The thrust of this question simply is that if a student is working in New Zealand—

    Mr SPEAKER : Order! That is not a point of order. If the member wants another supplementary, I can—

    Rt Hon Winston Peters : I haven’t finished it yet.

    Mr SPEAKER : The member will resume his seat. Would the Prime Minister please complete his answer?

    Rt Hon JOHN KEY : The point I am making is that a great many of these international students who come to New Zealand do actually work part-time. That gives them some money to pay for the time that they are in New Zealand, but it also demonstrates that they are committed to our country and that they have got a good work ethic, and I think they add enormously to New Zealand. If New Zealand First does not want these people coming to New Zealand—

    http://pacific.scoop.co.nz/2014/07/pq-8-immigration-minister-performance/

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  56. hj (6,996 comments) says:

    Tony Alexander’s view on house prices
    In BNZ Chief Economist Tony Alexander’s weekly overview, Auckland house prices are set to move upwards nicely. Here are his 19 reasons why:

    3. The government is explicitly aiming to grow Auckland’s population as a means of achieving “agglomeration” benefits for economic growth which accrue from high interaction amongst economic players.

    http://www.davidwhitburn.com/blogs/auckland-house-prices-to-rise-over-10-in-2013/
    looking after greasy real estate investors.

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  57. ChardonnayGuy (1,206 comments) says:

    To be perfectly honest though, David, most grassroots Labour supporters want a clean coalition with the Greens alone. As for Winston, he can go do something physiologically impossible to himself and take the likes of Asenati Lole-Taylor, Richard Prosser ad nauseum with him. And when I say clean, I still have some tactical and policy differences with Mana-Internet that suggest caution is the best option in their context. Any coalition with him in it is as bound to be toxic as the elderly Muldoon clone himself.

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  58. hj (6,996 comments) says:

    . And when I say clean, I still have some tactical and policy differences with Mana-Internet that suggest caution is the best option in their context. Any coalition with him in it is as bound to be toxic as the elderly Muldoon clone himself.
    ….
    On your scale of toxicity Richmastery is up there with Jesus.

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