June public polls

July 6th, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

junepolls

Look at that trend!

The summary of the monthly polling newsletter is:

There were a whopping seven political in June – three Roy Morgans, a One News Colmar Brunton, a 3 News Reid Research, a Herald DigiPoll and a Fairfax Ipsos.

The average of the public polls has National 23% ahead of Labour in June, up 5% from May and up 9% April. The current seat projection is centre-right 67 seats, centre-left 53 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval ratings fall from +6% to -11%, but despite this Labour increases their two party preferred lead to 10%.

In the United States the country direction gets more negative and President Obama’s approval ratings fall in all three major policy areas. 

In the UK Labour has a narrow 4% lead over the Conservatives but Ed Miliband continues to have awful approval ratings, dropping to -45%. Scottish independence polls show the no vote ahead by 3% to 19% with an average 12% gap.

In Canada the Conservatives are now projected to win more seats than the Liberals, despite being behind in the polls.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. A new third table has been added, comparing approval ratings for opposition leaders in the four countries that have one.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on coalitions, Team NZ, Maui’s Dolphins, most important issues, MMP, tax cuts, National’s leadership, the Mana/Internet alliance, political fundraising, capital gains tax, cannabis and immigration, plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

 

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47 Responses to “June public polls”

  1. stigie (1,004 comments) says:

    Good god, where does Liarbore go for shelter…who do they turn to ?

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  2. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Wait till the apologist really gets exposed, the polls will get worse for the left. There is so much more in the wings, “Tojo” is just a clown, led by envious and depraved losers.

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  3. Pete George (23,344 comments) says:

    Labour’s strategy is to lift their share by 2-3% and they think/hope National will drop by 6-7%, and Greens plus NZ First will also get enough to get a tri-party coalition over the line.

    They also hope Mallard won’t sabotage their campaign any more.

    They’re are hoping for miracles on both counts.

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  4. Chuck Bird (4,773 comments) says:

    DPF, Which 3 Maori seat do you think the Maori Party will get? I think they are most likely to get 1. It could be 2 or it could be none. According to iprdict and other polls they are not likely to get 3 seats.

    [DPF: I assume the status quo for seats until such time as a poll shows otherwise]

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  5. publicwatchdog (2,293 comments) says:

    Polls / schmolls…… Where were the polls or political commentators who accurately predicted that I would poll 4th in the 2013 Auckland Mayoralty with 11,723 votes? Come on – show me ONE! Show me ONE poll or political commentator who accurately predicted that John Banks would be found guilty of electoral fraud and be forced to resign from Parliament? Come on – show me ONE! Kind regards Penny Bright. http://www.dodgyjohnHASgone.com

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  6. Nookin (3,181 comments) says:

    So, Penny, where do your current polls have you in Helensville?

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  7. Bob (496 comments) says:

    What concerns me is that while National is way ahead of Labour a coalition of Labour and all the misfits contesting the election could without too much movement out poll National by a small margin. Then the country would be led by Labour even though the electorate obviously prefers a Key led government. Those voting Green are not voting for Labour. Those voting Labour are not voting for the Greens yet a coalition of both would be foist on all of us. The majority vote for National would be swamped. In that case Cunliffe would be crowing how people preferred Labour when in fact it would be nothing of the sort.

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  8. OneTrack (2,818 comments) says:

    And after all this, there is still 27% that would vote for them. The power of “Dad voted for them” must be strong.

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  9. mister nui (1,012 comments) says:

    How do we get a sustained downward trend in the commie green line though? That support for the greens is the most dangerous thing for our country.

    Time some of our media actually gave their wacky policies the scrutiny they deserve, instead of fawning allover their faux environmentalism.

    For instance, that little twerp Gareth Hughes; some sunlight needs to be shone on all of his hypocrisy and sheer mentalness – should the public actually see through this fuckwit, their vote would collapse.

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  10. OneTrack (2,818 comments) says:

    Bob, in that scenario, with Cunliffe in “charge”, the country would be led by whoever made the biggest noise around the cabinet table. Metiria and Russel, with support from the compliant sisterhood, would just do whatever they wanted. Cunliffe would not have any control of them, even if he was technically, “the prime minister”.

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  11. john (42 comments) says:

    David,
    Any chance of putting up the polls as they were three years ago to compare the trending with this time around.

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  12. publicwatchdog (2,293 comments) says:

    I don’t do ‘polling’ myself Nookin. In a grounded, sensible, common sense way – I’m making direct contact with people, including those of the community ‘mover and shaker’ variety, and giving them this VERY simple message: People of Helensville – why waste your ELECTORATE vote on John Key, when he’s going to be Number One on National’s Party list and get in anyway? ELECTORATE vote Penny Bright MP for Helensville and get the proven ‘anti-corruption/ anti-privatisation Public Watchdog’ INSIDE the House! Seems that ordinary folks are ‘getting it’ …… the thousands vs the millionaire ….. the 99% vs the 1% – sort of thing? Kind regards, Penny Bright http://www.dodgyjohnHASgone.com

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  13. hj (6,747 comments) says:

    Immigration polls have had a sharp reversal!

    In May, 3 News and One News both ran polls asking whether immigration should be restricted, with 62 and 57 per cent respective support.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/wanganui-chronicle/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503426&objectid=11274724

    Only a third of New Zealanders feel immigration levels are too high, according to a Herald-DigiPoll survey, while a majority feel the flow of migrants into the country is “about right”.
    -
    But the new poll showed 50.1 per cent of respondents were mostly unconcerned, saying immigration levels were “about right”. Just over 35 per cent said they were too high.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11287953

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  14. OneTrack (2,818 comments) says:

    mister nui – I am still waiting for Rachel to ask Russel for one example of a “Green” job (that is not a beneficiary). She loves them.

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  15. FeralScrote (126 comments) says:

    I love it Penny ,when the polls don`t reflect what you want them to reflect ,they are all a crock.
    I bet you would be singin` a different tune if they were showing whatever party you support leading.

    I`m with Bob,the greatest danger here is that a coalition of parties that lose the election can cobble together and we get a govt that nobody wants, ….democracy / schemocracy.
    Stock up now on toilet paper,cos` if we get a GimpLabour clusterfuck ,NZ will make Venezuela look like a democratic paradise.

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  16. Redbaiter (8,032 comments) says:

    How do we get a sustained downward trend in the commie green line though? That support for the greens is the most dangerous thing for our country.

    1) We get their damn propaganda out of the education system. Especially the preschool and primary sector.

    1) We do all we can to destroy their main propaganda outlet. That is the Green Left Daily, or AKA the NZ Herald.

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  17. publicwatchdog (2,293 comments) says:

    Well – working together with Graham McCready to get John Banks held accountable for electoral fraud has made history. Beating John Key fair and square for the Helensville electorate should do the same – don’t you think Nookin? The Public Watchdog beating the Wall St poodle? Quite a bold plan – but ‘faint heart never won fair go’ and I’m GOING FOR IT! Kind regards Penny Bright http://www.dodgyjohnHASgone.com

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  18. Griff (6,997 comments) says:

    National appears to have bleed support directly to the greens
    The lack of action on climate change will continue to effect the support for national and enhance the green vote.
    As the youth of today grow up and begin to take more interest in politics you can expect this trend to continue.

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  19. mister nui (1,012 comments) says:

    Rachel Smalley, OneTrack?

    How the hell that silly bint ever got a job in talkback, i’ll never know. She is totally devoid of critical thinking, she just reads from one scripted question to the next scripted question.

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  20. Nookin (3,181 comments) says:

    You don’t do compliance, either Penny. Doesn’t S 204F Electoral Act apply to you? Not very “one law for all” of you is it?

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  21. flipper (3,847 comments) says:

    So, 75 odd days to go, and it is the trend (unlike that in 2011) that is encouraging. There is much hard work in front, but it is great to have it underpinned by the small glow of justified confidence.

    The fear of losing is never a good motivator, and the Labour/Green mob, having been emasculated by Cunliffe on Friday last, “congress” boasts notwithstanding, will be feeling somewhat dispirited.

    Now, to get and lock in all those National 2011 DNVs …… clearly the MUST VOTE message has now been received, and will be heeded. Well, one hopes.

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  22. duggledog (1,439 comments) says:

    Onetrack @ 9.36:

    ‘And after all this, there is still 27% that would vote for them. The power of “Dad voted for them” must be strong’

    Yes, and those 27% I also believe are so disinterested in politics or at least how their country is being governed that they tick Labour for no other reason that Dad did or they have a vague supposition that only Labour looks after the blue collar worker. Most of this 27% could tell you the current line up of the mighty Warriors but would struggle to tell you who the leader of the opposition is, they are not necessarily dumb f***s but just can’t engage in anything that boring. As opposed to Green voters who I think are very very interested (maybe too interested!)

    The portion of the 27% who just can’t get their head around it all is who National need to target, with simple facts, i.e. how much electricity went up under Labour V National, food, interest rates etc. How many assets Labour has sold off over the years, how many mines, quarries, oil exploration given RC as opposed to now etc etc. Real basic shit. That’s all they need to do. And repeat over and over and over again. I am sick of doing it for them!

    National can leave the uncomfortable fact NZ is now in thrall to the royal Maoris to the Conservatives or Act or NZF.

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  23. mister nui (1,012 comments) says:

    We do all we can to destroy their main propaganda outlet. That is the Green Left Daily, or AKA the NZ Herald.

    Red, agreed, but, their main propaganda outlet is TV3 and one John Campbell.

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  24. Pete George (23,344 comments) says:

    1) We get their damn propaganda out of the education system. Especially the preschool and primary sector.

    I don’t see any of that that. My grand daughter has been taught harmless old rhymes like this:

    Incy wincy spider climbed up the water spout
    Down came the rain and washed poor Incy out.

    Out came the sun and tried to dry the rain
    but climate change will wash poor Incy out, and out again.

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  25. publicwatchdog (2,293 comments) says:

    I take full personal responsibility for whatever I do Nookin. Kind regards – Penny Bright http://www.dodgyjohnHASgone.com

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  26. Nookin (3,181 comments) says:

    No you don’t Penny. In your last foray in court you blamed it all on the council’s political persecution of you — despite the complete absence of any credible evidence to that effect.

    PS. Did you read that section? Are you going to comply?

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  27. publicwatchdog (2,293 comments) says:

    I think you’ll find Nookin – that NOBODY has yet had nominations as candidates for the 2014 General Election filed? Kind regards Penny Bright

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  28. duggledog (1,439 comments) says:

    Penny -

    Aside from a very small group of low income people in Parakai, Helensville electorate is overwhelmingly tradies, small farmers, people with businesses in the city or top jobs at said businesses, retirees – you know the sort.

    About the only thing self-made get up and go workers like these are pissed at right now is the congestion, but they can see into the future, say 2 or 3 years, and that once the motorway widening is completed things will be a lot better. In about 5 years the whole area including Kumeu is going to be rather prosperous and they will all be well placed to take advantage. They know this. Much work in the meantime with building all the new houses too.

    So I wish you the best of luck campaigning. I think you’re very brave because a lot of people are going to tell you to f*** off! You also have to contend with that Labour candidate Haddock or Craddock or whatever his name is, he’s got a big ginger beard. He’s going to get the dogs set on him too!

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  29. Pdubyah (17 comments) says:

    Penny,
    You’ve convinced me.

    I’m not sure of what though.

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  30. Nostalgia-NZ (5,045 comments) says:

    On Stuff yesterday was information that may have caused Dotcom interest, that young voters don’t much follow politics, consider it a nuisance to have to go to a polling booth and an expression that being paid to vote ($50) would be an incentive. On the face of it a bit of a shock, however when considering election promises thick and fast upon the ground pre September a little hard to tell the difference.

    After the last Roy Morgan where the 4th, 5th and 6th party figures demonstrated that particular vote could be the difference between Labour/Greens or National forming a Government the slightly unthinkable came to mind. If indeed there was a choice of the 3 ‘working’ together and one, say the MP, inclined to stick with National – but also keen to honour any agreement between the MP, MI and NZF, would only agree to the coalition should their ‘partners’ also be included would put new meaning to ‘the cat among the pigeons.’

    On the subject of NZF, Peters cut a fine figure when interviewed at the boxing last night. One could have almost suspected he’d given up or cut back on the turps or alternatively that he was either under less pressure or on some kind of medication that had given him back his old lucidity and wit.

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  31. tvb (4,255 comments) says:

    Cunliffe needs internet mana to form a Government and Peters as well. Why cannot he be straight with the New Zealand public and say how all this is going to work. He just smirks and says watch this space. That is just not good enough.

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  32. freemark (519 comments) says:

    Hey Penny
    When are you chasing down certain Labour undeclared donations & secret Trusts?
    BTW I think it’s great that you’ll be running in Helensville, why should it be just us that gets to see what batshit really looks like.
    Maybe you could have one of those moving/video BillBoard things – how about a loop of that movie of you blubbering like a Cunliffe when getting arrested at Occupy?
    Meant in the nicest possible way of course

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  33. Redbaiter (8,032 comments) says:

    “Red, agreed, but, their main propaganda outlet is TV3 and one John Campbell.”

    Yes maybe.

    The real issue is that democracy throughout the west is completely undermined by the prevalence of left wing propagandists posing as journalists. In TV, radio and print.

    Universities are politically corrupt. Journalism schools even more so. Whereas the old Soviet Union once had Pravda, the bulk of western journalism is now a virtual neo-Pravda force that severely limits the voters right to be informed, and elections now take place under this severe handicap to democracy.

    Education is run by centralised left wing bureaucracies. That is where the problem starts.

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  34. Scott Chris (5,977 comments) says:

    Comforting trend for me is the one that has Winston hovering below the 5% threshold.

    Perhaps the way to sink him completely is to throw the Golden Oldies a bone or two and ostensibly tighten immigration policy.

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  35. Nookin (3,181 comments) says:

    You are probably correct, Penny but I am not sure how that helps you.

    Did you read S3(1)(c) which says that for the purposes of advertising compliance, “candidate” includes someone who has declared his or her intention to be a constituency candidate? You have declared your intention to be a candidate, haven’t you?

    Can we expect some compliance now?

    What about disclosure? Have you considered whether you have to declare free posting space as less than market value advertising?

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  36. Judith (8,455 comments) says:

    tvb (4,153 comments) says:
    July 6th, 2014 at 10:40 am
    Cunliffe needs internet mana to form a Government and Peters as well. Why cannot he be straight with the New Zealand public and say how all this is going to work. He just smirks and says watch this space…

    I agree, its not on – how dare he copy the stance we’ve had from Key – who has also given the same ‘watch this space’ when it comes to who he’s prepared to ‘have a cup of tea’ with or not.

    Cunliffe should come up with his own lines – and you should open both eyes!

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  37. freemark (519 comments) says:

    Interesting comment on Hide’s piece in the Herald today..

    “I agree. I am an EPMU member solely because they are the issuing agency for Press credentials in NZ and I can’t get those unless I am a member.
    I would far rather they gave my part of the annual subs to National”

    Is the bit about EPMU being the issuing agency for Press credentials correct? Explains a lot if so…

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  38. freemark (519 comments) says:

    You on overtime rates today for your efforts Judith?
    Or are you posting from “The Congress” (sitting next to LiPrent perhaps & sharing the same set of instructions)?
    Has the “old boy” apologised for being a man yet..or did you fix him up years ago?

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  39. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Why doesn’t this Penny horror show just eff off to The Standard. Her vile, envious, and worthless comments defy belief. John Banks will have the last laugh on scum such as Bright . . . just wait and see!

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  40. geoff3012 (56 comments) says:

    Nookin (2,979 comments) says:
    July 6th, 2014 at 9:26 am
    So, Penny, where do your current polls have you in Helensville?

    96th

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  41. freemark (519 comments) says:

    Co-Pilot Norman has been very quiet lately..what’s up with that?
    Actually so has Herr DotCon…
    Are they just waiting for Labour to totally self destruct, or are they aware that others have some very damaging stuff on them?

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  42. Nookin (3,181 comments) says:

    “Actually so has Herr DotCon…”

    Maybe something to do with the fact that the extradition hearing is due to start tomorrow.

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  43. hj (6,747 comments) says:

    Scott Chris (5,840 comments) says:

    Perhaps the way to sink him completely is to throw the Golden Oldies a bone or two and ostensibly tighten immigration policy.
    ……
    Weasel.

    ostensibly:

    as appears or is stated to be true, though not necessarily so; apparently.
    “the party secretary resigned, ostensibly from ill health”
    synonyms: apparently, seemingly, on the face of it, to all appearances, on the surface, to all intents and purposes, outwardly, superficially, allegedly, professedly, supposedly, purportedly.

    ………..
    As I posted above 2/3 polls show majority support for restricting immigration and as Winston Peters says there would be more if the media weren’t biased:

    In May, 3 News and One News both ran polls asking whether immigration should be restricted, with 62 and 57 per cent respective support.
    But immigration experts are questioning whether a beat-up on foreigners is a smart move for politicians who may rely on them for votes in years to come.

    the experts in question are Spoonley and Shamubeel Eaqub of the NZIER which (for some reason?) has views that contrast the consensus among policy makers .

    At that time, it was considered that skills-focused inward migration could: improve growth
    by bringing in better quality human capital and addressing skills shortages; improve
    international connections and boost trade; help mitigate the effects of population ageing;
    and have beneficial effects on fiscal balance. As well as “replacing” departing
    New Zealanders and providing particular help with staffing public services (for example,
    medical professionals), it was believed that migration flows could be managed so as to
    avoid possible detrimental effects (such as congestion or poorer economic prospects) for
    existing New Zealanders.

    Since then, New Zealand has had substantial gross and net immigration, which has been
    relatively skill-focused by international standards. However, New Zealand’s economic
    performance has not been transformed. Growth in GDP per capita has been relatively
    lacklustre, with no progress in closing income gaps with the rest of the advanced world,
    and productivity performance has been poor. It may be that initial expectations about the
    potential positive net benefits of immigration were too high.

    Based on a large body of new research evidence and practical experience, the consensus
    among policymakers now is that other factors are more important for per capita growth .
    and productivity than migration and population growth. CGE modelling exercises for
    Australia and New Zealand have been influential in reshaping expectations.

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  44. s.russell (1,580 comments) says:

    Re immigration polls:
    I invite people citing these polls re read the actual questions very carefully: this may explain the apparently contradictory results.
    The oft-cited poll that showed 2/3 wanting tougher immigration laws did not show that at all: it showed that 2/3 want restrictions on immigration. We ALREADY have restrictions on immigration and most people know that.

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  45. hj (6,747 comments) says:

    s.russell (1,543 comments) says:
    Re immigration polls:
    I invite people citing these polls re read the actual questions very carefully: this may explain the apparently contradictory results.
    The oft-cited poll that showed 2/3 wanting tougher immigration laws did not show that at all: it showed that 2/3 want restrictions on immigration. We ALREADY have restrictions on immigration and most people know that.
    …….
    Restrict

    put a limit on; keep under control.
    “some roads may have to be closed at peak times to restrict the number of visitors”
    synonyms: limit, set/impose limits on, keep within bounds, keep under control, regulate, control, moderate, cut down on.
    to limit the amount or range of (something)

    : to prevent (someone) from doing something

    : to allow (someone) to only have or do a particular thing
    to confine within bounds : restrain

    : to place under restrictions as to use or distribution

    Unfortunately the people who pay for the polls don’t always seem keen to let the public look directly at the questions and results.

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  46. Scott Chris (5,977 comments) says:

    Weasel.

    Heh good for you hj, faithfully supporting your man Winston – the Rolf Harris of NZ politics*.

    *implying that he’s an entertainer of course ;)

    Trust Winston Peters? Sure can….

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  47. publicwatchdog (2,293 comments) says:

    Gee – I must have you (and others) worried Nookin! Keep gumming away and I’ll keep making my considered (unpaid) political opinions available on-line as the future MP for Helensville? Kind regards Penny Bright (who at least puts her name to her posts and was one of the two successful Appellants in the Occupy Auckland vs Auckland Council Appeal – although I’m not a lawyer – as you purport to be Nookin? ;)

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