The 71 electorates by iPredict

July 1st, 2014 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

ipredictelects

I’ve compiled this table showing the current probabilities on of each seat. This is reflecting the view of the market traders who are willing to put their own money behind what they think the result will be. A seat in bold indicates a prediction it will change hands.

So what are the seats, that iPredict traders think are most marginal.

  1. Port Hills is rated 50/50 between Nuk Korako and Ruth Dyson
  2. Jono Naylor is judged just ahead of Iain Lees-Galloway in Palmerston North,
  3. Clayton Cosgrive marginally ahead in Waimakariri
  4. Phil Twyford looks to have a fight on his hands in Te Atatu to hold off Alfred Ngaro
  5. Flavell in Waiariki is fighting for his seat, and the Maori Party’s existence
  6. Punters are only 60% certain that National will not throw East Coast Bays
  7. Stuart Nash is seen as two thirds likely to pick up Napier for Labour
  8. Damien O’Connor only two thirds likely to hold on in East Coast-Tasman
  9. Labour also two thirds likely to pick up Tamaki Makaurau
  10. Hamish McDouall seen as having around a one in four chance of winning Whangaui on his third attempt

So how about the other end. What are the safest seats for the major parties. National has nine seats rated over 95% safe and Labour five.

 

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31 Responses to “The 71 electorates by iPredict”

  1. Colville (2,272 comments) says:

    Every voter from the Right will be voting for Kelvin Davis to improve his chances against Hone. (78.6%)

    Would it be dirty for Nat party volunteers to do door knocking in support of Labour? :-)

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  2. Fisiani (1,039 comments) says:

    The best bet on Ipredict is National to win Hutt South. The seat is being contested by Chris Bishop who will wipe the floor with Mallard who in fear is already trying to curtail MTC meetings. Turn $15 into $100.
    I note that National to win Palmerston North has dropped to 47% today after this post.

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  3. SGA (1,069 comments) says:

    Colville at 11:10 am

    Would it be dirty for Nat party volunteers to do door knocking in support of Labour? :-)

    Interesting idea, but if they were identifiable as Nat party, my best guess is that it would have the opposite effect to that you’d prefer.

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  4. s.russell (1,642 comments) says:

    I think the probabilities here are driven by just a few people in a small market. I have found that a bet of just $1 can significantly change the probability rating. Because of this the ratings bounce around a lot. A couple of weeks ago I bet on National winning Hamilton East at just 50%. Now it is 75%. Ergo, I wouldnt put much ‘stock’ in ‘iPredict’s predictions. There is certainly opportunity to make money when a large bet skews the odds to something silly. But you can only make a tiny bet before it self-corrects.

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  5. edhunter (547 comments) says:

    I’m not a fan of Maori seats never was never will be.
    But I do wonder at the mind set of the average Maori seat voter, surely the Maori Party has achieved more for their constituents by being in government than could ever have been gained from the cross bench. And yet it looks like the party if they survive will be an anaemic version of their current selves.

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  6. straya (80 comments) says:

    @s.russell I have to agree.

    Peter Brent, one of the savviest observers of Australian politics, has frequently expressed his skepticism about the supposed “wisdom” of the electoral betting markets in Australia, which are much deeper (and therefore theoretically more accurate) than the ipredict NZ markets:-

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/labor_leadership_possibilities/

    (no joke intended by the sheep reference).

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  7. dime (9,980 comments) says:

    looks like ACT! will get my party vote for the first time since 05.

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  8. Ed Snack (1,883 comments) says:

    I still reckon Napier is driven by the local amalgamation issue. Thus it won’t have a huge party impact in terms of the overall vote, but Nash will cruise in if the national candidate supports amalgamation.

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  9. reversespin (69 comments) says:

    (sp) It is Nuk Korako…..with a K. http://korako.co.nz/profile-3/

    Excellent local candidate combined with boundary changes, will result in a loss for Ruth Dyson. National has always won the PV in Port Hills. Boundary changes and rising property prices will accentuate that.

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  10. edhunter (547 comments) says:

    Dime it’s a crime NZ doesn’t have a credible party of the right to vote for. Ever seen a Rotty wagging it’s non-existent tail? That’s what the Nats are dog without a tail.

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  11. iMP (2,387 comments) says:

    This is sounding very much an FPP conversation. So, like the Maori seats, are we now ready to throw off MMP as well.

    The Conservatives agree with getting rid of the Maori seats. An archaism that Maori have already decided by voting with their feet. The Mana/Internet Maori seat manipulation will further condemn these archaisms).

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  12. Chuck Bird (4,895 comments) says:

    Why do all the polls including the poll of polls put the Maori Party down for 3 seats when they will be lucky to get one?

    The best chance for the Maori Party to survive will be to lower the threshold to 3 or 4%, end coat tailing and abolish the Maori seats.

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  13. BlueSilver (26 comments) says:

    There’s a 59.9% chance no one is going to care what the Conservatives think come 21 September…..

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  14. bringbackdemocracy (427 comments) says:

    No Conservatives = No National led Government

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  15. waripori (18 comments) says:

    If this list turns out to be right Labour would have 26 electorates. If they do poll 27% that should give them 33 seats I think which means anywhere below about number 20 on the list will not be a lucky number. People putting their money up on ipredict should have some more information ( unless they are just party activists trying to make some mischief ) but my guess would be if Labour actually do as badly as the polls suggest they will some of the electorates that ipredict are giving them may not actually fall that way.

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  16. Keeping Stock (10,342 comments) says:

    So if John Key has a 98.1% chance of retaining Helensville where he has a majority of over 21,000), does that mean that Penny is pissing against a gale force wind?

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  17. Pete George (23,591 comments) says:

    I think iPredict is too easy to manipulate. Apart from being open to self interested manipulation it is fundamentally different to opinion polling.

    With iPredict people are betting on what the election result will be.

    Opinion polling doesn’t try to predict an election result, it tries to measure the public’s preferences on the day each person is polled.

    A good post on this by a pollster:

    …a poll should not be expected to perfectly predict the result of the General Election. The pollsters will do their best to measure party support at the time they are polling – but they do not poll on Election Day, they do not ask ‘who will you vote for?’, they cannot predict what undecided voters will do (or whether they will vote), and there are many other factors outside their control.

    Factors outside their control include the weather, and what politicians and political commentators do and say leading up to the election. Let’s take the 2011 election as an example. Most poll data were collected 5-7 days out from the election. In the interim, there were reports of the Prime Minister telling John Banks that NZ First supporters weren’t going to be around for much longer! It was no surprise to me .

    http://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2014/06/28/undecided-voters-and-political-polls/

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  18. KiwiGreg (3,255 comments) says:

    @keeping stock from memory she got 23 votes last time she stood in Epsom so the bar wont be high

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  19. KiwiGreg (3,255 comments) says:

    (or was that the mayoralty)?

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  20. ROJ (121 comments) says:

    Those numbers do indicate some thin markets, esp. at the top end.

    Exactly 90% or 90.9% are 9:1 and 10:1, respectively

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  21. Manolo (13,837 comments) says:

    I’ll drink up a few drams of single malt the day the useless Trevor Mallard is defeated.

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  22. Shazzadude (529 comments) says:

    I always love how the electorate stock prices fluctuate wildly on ipredict every time DPF does an update on the odds-and almost always in National’s favour.

    Great money-making time!

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  23. waripori (18 comments) says:

    Very thin markets. I have never had an ipredict account but just opened one and spent $20 backing National in Wairarapa. It moved the market from 75 cents to 85 cents

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  24. publicwatchdog (2,613 comments) says:

    Ah ‘Keeping Stock’ – I like a challenge!

    And – apologies – you were absolutely right – John Key IS standing in Helensville.

    GREAT!

    I am SO looking forward to beating him in Helensville :)

    Will John Key stand down as Leader of the National Party, if Public Watchdog Penny Bright beats him for the Helensville electorate vote?

    Quite simply – why would the voting public of Helensville waste their electorate vote on John Key. when he’ll be Number One on National’s Party List, and get in anyway?

    If Helensville folk vote STRATEGICALLY , and electorate vote ‘Public Watchdog’ Penny Bright for Helensville, they can get ‘two for one’ – sort of thing…..

    A proven, hardworking, effective advocate for the 99% PM – Penelope Mary Bright, vs a proven, hardworking advocate for the `1% – PM John Key.

    Want some evidence to support this?

    Try this: (for starters ….)

    What more do you expect from the ‘poodle from Wall St’ John Key, who is STILL a shareholder in the Bank of America?

    NZ MPs ‘Register of Financial Interests’ )just downloaded today):

    http://www.parliament.nz/resource/en-nz/00CLOOCMPPFinInterests20141/2e04287ad20ee5da12a308149e59bb16d7f47ce5
    (Pg 30)

    Rt Hon John Key (National, Helensville)

    2 Other companies and business entities

    Little Nell – property investment, Aspen, Colorado
    Bank of America – banking

    4 Beneficial interests in, and trusteeships of, trusts
    JP & BI Key Family Trust
    Aldgate Trust (blind trust)
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________

    (Scroll down and watch the news clip – May 2010 about John Key’s ‘insider trading in Tranz Rail’ and his not-so-blind trusts?)

    https://plus.google.com/107879574662689768068/posts/CGQpVTbDorP

    Cheers!
    Penny Bright

    Future MP for Helensville? ;)

    http://www.dodgyjohnHASgone.com

    Next – ‘shonky’ John Key?

    (Meant of course in a caring way …… :)

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  25. Changeiscoming (190 comments) says:

    Let me be the first to down vote you Penny. The first of many I am sure.

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  26. Colville (2,272 comments) says:

    Yeah Key is going to risk prison for insider trading. He really needs the money .

    /sarc.

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  27. Colville (2,272 comments) says:

    Oh. I was second :-)

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  28. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    Third.

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  29. jaba (2,143 comments) says:

    so where will Sue Moroney be losing this year?

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  30. publicwatchdog (2,613 comments) says:

    errr….. don’t let the FACTS alarm you possums:

    Auckland 2013 Mayoral results:

    http://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/EN/AboutCouncil/HowCouncilWorks/Elections/Documents/mayorfinalresults2013.pdf

    BRIGHT, Penny Independent 102 11723

    (I polled fourth).

    You see, what should be rather fascinating, for those with more than two brain cells to rub together, is that the Helensville electorate boundaries are within the Auckland ‘Super Rip Off’ boundaries.

    It’s reasonable to assume that some of the nearly 12,000 voters who apparently like my track record and policies enough to vote for me, came from within the Helensville electorate.

    Unfortunately for ‘Trader’ John – these are still the SAME people?

    Don’t you think the logic of not wasting an electoral vote on John Key, because he’s going to get in anyway, (as Number One on the yet-to-announced National Party list) – will have some appeal with the voting public?

    You see – the problem with the 1% is that numerically – they’re a minority.

    Unlike the 99% – who are numerically the majority.

    The thousands vs the millionaire – sort of thing …..

    As Miranda’s mum would say – “Such fun!”

    Just another little point – how many of the political commentators / ‘knowalls’ – predicted that I would poll 4th in the Auckland 2013 Mayoralty?

    How many of the political commentators / ‘knowalls’ – predicted that John Banks would be found guilty and have to leave Parliament?

    Come on!

    Anyone got any verifiable EVIDENCE that proves you correctly predicted those results?

    So – how about the Helensville electorate vote?

    It is my intention to beat the ‘Wall St poodle’ John Key – fair and square, and become the Independent MP for Helensville.

    Anybody want to have a punt on THAT result?

    Kind regards,

    Penny Bright

    http://www.dodgyjohnHASgone.com

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  31. lolitasbrother (702 comments) says:

    Christchurch Central at 80% labour to a nasty little h..mo .sex..al little dude who never had a good job in his life .
    NZ Nat should win this seat, but where is the effort

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