I’ve compiled this table showing the current probabilities on iPredict of each seat. This is reflecting the view of the market traders who are willing to put their own money behind what they think the result will be. A seat in bold indicates a prediction it will change hands.
So what are the seats, that iPredict traders think are most marginal.
- Port Hills is rated 50/50 between Nuk Korako and Ruth Dyson
- Jono Naylor is judged just ahead of Iain Lees-Galloway in Palmerston North,
- Clayton Cosgrive marginally ahead in Waimakariri
- Phil Twyford looks to have a fight on his hands in Te Atatu to hold off Alfred Ngaro
- Flavell in Waiariki is fighting for his seat, and the Maori Party’s existence
- Punters are only 60% certain that National will not throw East Coast Bays
- Stuart Nash is seen as two thirds likely to pick up Napier for Labour
- Damien O’Connor only two thirds likely to hold on in East Coast-Tasman
- Labour also two thirds likely to pick up Tamaki Makaurau
- Hamish McDouall seen as having around a one in four chance of winning Whangaui on his third attempt
So how about the other end. What are the safest seats for the major parties. National has nine seats rated over 95% safe and Labour five.