Has Labour’s bribe backfired on them?

August 22nd, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

’s support among the elderly has slumped despite making free GP visits for pensioners the centrepiece of its election campaign launch recently.

A breakdown of the party vote according to age suggests a dramatic fall from 29.3 per cent among pensioners in last month’s poll to just 17.6 per cent in today’s poll.

Once the poll results are broken into age groups they are simply indicative.

But what makes the movement more credible is that New Zealand First, which assiduously courts the grey vote, has gone from 4.7 per cent support among the over 65-year-olds last month to 8.9 per cent of the older vote in today’s poll.

We can estimate how significant these changes are.

We don’t know how many over 65s were in the poll sample of 750, but let’s estimate 200.

A fall from 29.3% to 17.6% has a 99.3% chance of being a true fall, and only a 0.7% chance of being just random sample differences. So it is safe to conclude Labour has fallen in support from over 65s despite their bribe.

An increase from 4.7% to 8.9% has a 94.8% chance of being a true increase, so it is likely they have gained support from over 65s.

Tags: , ,

45 Responses to “Has Labour’s bribe backfired on them?”

  1. Pete George (23,426 comments) says:

    It’s hard to tell which of Labour’s backfires is at play here.

    Even the Hager/Whaledump play may backfire on Labour, they are as tainted as National by dirty politics.

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. G152 (272 comments) says:

    Yes.
    All that negativity has a price and Liebor are paying.
    You’d think that they’d have worked that out

    Vote: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. polemic (460 comments) says:

    Yes it is the fear that the aged have for the dreaded ‘Co-Boat”

    A vote for Labour is a vote the Greens aka” the Co-Boat” and the elderly have been around long enough to know the Greens have no real interest in them at all.

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Ross12 (1,378 comments) says:

    Well the oldies have plenty of experience and they know a bribe when they see it !

    David , I don’t know anything about the practical aspects of doing a poll but this poll is only with 750 people. That seems to be very small given the importance of polls so close to an election. Does this indicate the polling company had problems getting people to participate ? (ie. voters are switched off) or is it a case of not much effort by the polling company. I would have thought they would try to get more results in the poll.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. polemic (460 comments) says:

    It is one thing that Winston First has failed to realise is that his party doesn’t have any other appeal except the elder compared to the Conservatives who have a wider appeal.

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. Southern Raider (1,779 comments) says:

    As with the preferred prime minister ratings National has just gone back to its historical average of 50% but the MSM won’t cover this

    Whereas Labour just keeps on slip sliding down towards 20%

    Is there a real risk the Greens may become the dominant opposition party?

    Vote: Thumb up 18 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. IGM (220 comments) says:

    The foul Greens are only interested in the assets and cash deposits of the elderly, so they can distribute them to their leeching supporters. Labour is despised for their acceptance of weirdos and woofters.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. RRM (9,771 comments) says:

    I think Winston knows exactly what he’s doing, polemic…

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. ROJ (114 comments) says:

    Mentioning Winston as an alternative to Labour bribery doesn’t quite fit – he’s been the most extravagant making promises to that group previously

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. PaulP (144 comments) says:

    It amazes me the number of people that think a margin of error is an absolute. For example a 3% error means if you are polling at 2% you could be on zero or 5%.

    Jamie Whyte made this basic mistake on Newstalk ZB yesterday when he said that with them polling “below the margin of error” they could in fact have much higher support.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. mandk (949 comments) says:

    And, stupidly, National have been engineering a situation in which Winston Peters might well hold the balance of power.

    They have been relying on ACT and UF, neither of whom have any hope of bringing additional MPs. Instead they could have been quietly developing a working relationship with the Conservatives.

    Peters is a demagogue. Craig has some whacky ideas, but he could have been knocked into shape as a reasonable and effective coalition partner.

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 9 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. ROJ (114 comments) says:

    Raider, don’t worry too much about the Greens becoming dominant on the left.

    If they do, there will be such a chasm between them and the (Centre-)Right that the country will have a permanent clear choice.

    That would actually be a pity, we do need a reasoned and reasoning Opposition just to keep the Government real.

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. Harriet (4,776 comments) says:

    “….A vote for Labour is a vote the Greens aka” the Co-Boat”….”

    The back benchers in Labour will hate seeing the co-boating Greens and NZF getting huge increases.

    And if they don’t complain publicly about that — then rest assured that Labour may still have some big policy announcements to make.

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. RRM (9,771 comments) says:

    mandk –

    Remember when Key personally negotiated a fix to that messy Actors Union vs Warner Bros shit, and he ended up getting a whole lot of “Visit beautiful New Zealand!” glossy advertising included in every DVD of the Hobbit ever sold, pretty much for free?

    Colin Craig has done reasonably well in business, but Key is world class. I suspect he is confident he will be able to get whatever he needs out of Colin, should circumstances require that…

    Vote: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. YesWeDid (1,048 comments) says:

    ‘We don’t know how many over 65s were in the poll sample of 750, but let’s estimate 200′

    You’re a professional pollster DPF so you must have lots of information about population breakdowns.

    According to the Stats department 14% of the population is over 65 and 14% of 750 is 105 which is a lot less than your estimate of 200. So what’s the deal? Are a disproportionate number of people in political polls over 65?

    http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/NationalPopulationEstimates_HOTPMar12qtr/Commentary.aspx

    [DPF: Polls are of the adult or voting population. Try again]

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 6 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. tvb (4,319 comments) says:

    I do not think a sample size of 200 is large enough to draw too many conclusions and you should know that. I think a more statistically significant sample could be worthwhile to see if Labour has some problems there and why. Free Dr’s visits are fair enough for over 65s as the economy allows. After all early detection of problems through Dr visits and blood tests can actually save money later on so it is a good investment. I am thinking of diabetes (which is a silent disease) blood pressure and cholesterol all of that are routine blood tests which is left untreated can result in major health issues later on. It is tempting for all National Superannuation people to have proof of a yearly blood test (not the result) just that they have got one testing for the above.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. mandk (949 comments) says:

    RRM,

    but in order for the Conservatives to bring 4 or 5 MPs with them to work alongside National, the Nats need to “gift” them a seat in the way they are “gifting” ACT and UF a seat each.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 5 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. Rich Prick (1,659 comments) says:

    This is a lesson in know thy audience. My retired parents are fiercely independent, they grew up in an age where you had to take responsibility for yourself, and they did. They find this sort of pork highly offensive because they know that younger people trying to get ahead looking after themselves (just as they did) will shoulder the burden of this bribe.

    Vote: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. PTM (47 comments) says:

    Given that I am in the over 65 age group, I do have a concern that the Greens/Labour capital gains tax will skim off a significant portion of my estate on my death prior to it being distributed to my beneficiaries. I didn’t work to build my asset base for the purpose of funding extravagant welfare policies that I don’t support.
    I am sure that there will be many people in similar situations that have taken this into consideration when responding to these polls.

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  20. Neil (577 comments) says:

    Labour is well known for its bribes. Just consider Cunliffe in Dunedin yesterday when he promised to re-open the Hillside Railway Workshops. Dead and buried 18 months ago. Long live the Labour Cargo Cult !! Even Dunedin people aren’t that stupid to fall for this bribe !!

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  21. kaykaybee (153 comments) says:

    The blanket intention of the Super eligibility raising is ignorant policy from Labour IMHO. It’s mere conjecture but the elderly and all of us know somebody who through a life of hard graft, and or reduced circumstances is no longer fit for work after 65 and even some who find it all too arduous at 60. I think Labour are showing they’re out of touch with the reality of their own working class base. No amount of free Doctor’s visits makes up for the prospect of counting down until your 65 only to find your advocate political party upped the eligibility age on you and you’ve got to continue skiving and labouring to pay your rent.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  22. BushBaby (9 comments) says:

    Ron Mark in Wairarapa might be the best bet for Winston to win a seat. I was at the Carterton candidates meeting on Wed night and Ron was a clear winner on the way he spoke and addressed local issues. Older demographic in Wairarapa will also help Ron. Three way split votes between young up and coming Labourite (McAnulty), Nats Scott (carpetbagger?) and Mark (local and experienced). Electorate to watch I reckon.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  23. RRM (9,771 comments) says:

    Mank – Colin is pretty close to the 5% threshold though isn’t he?

    Should be able to do it on his own.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  24. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    He’s actually not very close to 5% – that’s a myth the Conservatives are promoting. DPF’s average of polls has them at 2.3%.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  25. hj (6,825 comments) says:

    How many pollsters have foreign accents?

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  26. mandk (949 comments) says:

    RRM, mikenmild

    The Conservatives got 2.65% at the last election, although they weren’t really on the pollsters radar before then.

    So, if they are on 2.3% in DPF’s average of polls now, what will they get on 20 Sept?

    Similarly, NZF got a much larger share of the vote on the last election day than they were polling beforehand.

    The question remains: who would the Nats rather have inside the tent – Peters or Craig?

    btw, I’m not much of a fan of Craig’s, I’m just confronting a political possibility.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  27. Chuck Bird (4,829 comments) says:

    There are a lot of people 65+ who are comfortably off financially. There are a higher proportion who are conservation. Many are concerned about democracy and moral issues. I have enough money to live comfortably the rest of my life so I will be voting on these issues taking into account which party is most likely able to deliver.

    I have a friend in his 70s who has voted Labour all his life will probably vote NZF. I know a few others from the left who will be voting for Winston because of Cunliffe.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  28. hj (6,825 comments) says:

    Why are we seeing polls over and over and then having to guess what they mean. I suspect the people behind the polls don’t want to open any can of worms such as, the big changes to our society (and way of life) in the name of multiculturalism and the Chamber of Commerce?
    What’s more as long as our system is manipulatable it will stay in place.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  29. Viking2 (11,351 comments) says:

    Slightly off topic but I see mention of the Railway workshops in the same sentence as Cunnliffe. Just happened to look a FB and noticed this. Kinda tells you about the roots of Labour.

    http://screencast.com/t/XDdFYuSyTT

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  30. redqueen (553 comments) says:

    So much for the poll collapse. National still at 50% 8-)

    Vote: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  31. EAD (943 comments) says:

    I don’t have any time for Labour but I’ll pull the author up on the use of newsspeak.

    Labour promising services that cost tens of millions = bribe

    National borrowing $300 million per week = good economic management?

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 8 You need to be logged in to vote
  32. backster (2,141 comments) says:

    A transfer of elder support from Labour to Winston surely only amounts to a bigger bauble for Winston…The elderly don’t want to negatively vote Labour.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  33. flipper (3,947 comments) says:

    Once again Michael Bassett has nailed the problem with politics New Zealand, 2014:

    On Leighton Smith just after 9.30 this morning Bassett told Smith and the Newstalk ZB audience:

     > The Governing party is in a better position today than any other Governing party since 1985….

     > The “Hager effect” is not helping Labour…

    Hager’s efforts a repeat – another version -of last few elections (paraphrased)

    The media, TVNZ, TV3, Radio New Zealand, and the Herald, have prostituted themselves before Hager

    Journalists at TVNZ, TV3, Radio New Zealand, and the Herald are besotted by Hager – they are all leftists.

    Well it is pretty hard to come up with a more damning analysis, that o9s absolutely accurate. Thanks Michael.

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  34. homepaddock (435 comments) says:

    “So it is safe to conclude Labour has fallen in support from over 65s despite their bribe.”

    Not in spite of but because of. This is a good reflection on older people who see the bribe for what it is; realise that free doctors visits isn’t best use of scarce public funds and understand they have far more to lose from Labour/Green/Internet Mana policies than the very small gain of free doctors visits.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  35. Fisiani (1,024 comments) says:

    The average sick elderly person visits a doctor about 4 times a year and gets 4 pills. The Labour bribe is about $240
    The average well elderly person does not visit the doctor.
    The average super rich sick elderly gets a $240 bribe.
    BUT when the Labour/Greens get in the economy goes into recession again , power prices will rise, inflation will rise and they will be $800 worse off. The elderly can see the bribe for what it is. Just a desperate attempt to steal their vote.

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  36. muggins (3,341 comments) says:

    I do not believe that the Hagar effect will help Labour, but it may help Winston and he may well get a cabinet post out of it.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  37. flipper (3,947 comments) says:

    EAD….says…. “National borrowing $300 million per week = good economic management?”….

    Where have you been for the past six years???
    Everyone with just half a brain knows that this was to stop NZ going into a PIGS-like economic decline thanks to the GFC.

    But what did Labour et al want?
    Like Oliver, they wanted more – more spending

    Every single move to curtail spending, every change that was implemented to reduce the total deficit, was opposed. Remember those asset sales? Don’t sell, borrow and tax more was their catch cry.

    Go away, curl up in a corner, and take an over dose…or something to restore your dull brain.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  38. flipper (3,947 comments) says:

    Interesting comment to me this morning – in an email from a senior Federated Farmers man….

    *** “Anything could happen yet, but the public seems to be totally saturated with this dirty politics, of which Hager’s book is only one part.
    Interesting to hear Michael Bassett on Newstalk ZB this morning saying that Radio NZ, TVNZ and Tv3, and the print media, led by N.Z. Pravda [Edit Herald :-) ], have “prostituted” themselves over Hager and his book. Apparently Goff and Campbell last night were so egging each other on it was pure comedy (Bassett).
    Every where I go at the moment, left and right have had a gutsfull of the whole thing and just want the election over. No one is interested in the whole thing, so policy will not be noticed. …”

    I think labours shills, here and in the media, irrespective of their clothing, should keep up their “good” work.

    And a word of advice for those who keep harping on about J Key: Go to your libraries, or better still go to the newspapers, and inspect their files and bound volumes. You will find that Holland, Nash, Kiwi Keith (especially), were similarly accused, but when their actual words were placed under a microscopic lense, it was uninformed media, and their own leaps of fantasy that was their problem. In other words, believe more of what Key says than anyone else.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  39. Richard (832 comments) says:

    Perhaps the over 65’s have become a bit jaded with bribes like a child given lollies too many times. If Labour really want the ”Silver vote” Cunliffe is going to have to crack a few racist jokes like Winne. Even now his staffers and speech writers will be trawling the web for some.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  40. goldnkiwi (1,258 comments) says:

    kaykaybee (148 comments) says:

    August 22nd, 2014 at 9:38 am

    Did you mean skivvying? Not sure if an employer would want someone skiving for pay and hard to graft and skive, although I suggest that many employees do skive. :)

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  41. chickadee (21 comments) says:

    Senile old fools shouldn’t be voting anyway. Whats it got to do with them? the future of the country, they will mostly be dead or a pain in the butt in the next few years so leave the decision making to 25 – 65 year olds.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 6 You need to be logged in to vote
  42. kaykaybee (153 comments) says:

    @goldnkiwi. Lol. I meant skivvying of course. Need to keep a closer eye on auto spellcheck

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  43. BushBaby (9 comments) says:

    NZ First and Conservatives vote % will rise on polling day because their demographic actually turns out. The Greens and IMP will underperform as their base stays in bed. Labour just begs the question “why?”. My pick is still National with support from centre right parties of NZF, Cons, UF, Act and Maori (pragmatic).

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  44. lastmanstanding (1,278 comments) says:

    chickadee Ahh the exuberance of youth. Yes we know it all at 20 or 30. no one can tell us anything we are the font of all knowledge. Except……….. when we make the same mistakes as those who have gone before us.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  45. Willow11 (5 comments) says:

    I’m new here so kia ora everybody. One of my concerns are the policies of both Labour & the Greens regarding their proposals to increase the taxes on those who earn over $120,000 (Labour-33% to 36%) & $140,000 (Greens-33% to40%) purportedly to help “ordinary New Zealanders”! I consider myself to be an “ordinary New Zealander” however I am one of those who will be subject to their tax increases. I worked hard to put myself in a position to earn a very good salary: I was (and still am) a solo parent. I have never received DPB instead I chose to continue working. When my kids were old enough and working I took out a student loan and took myself off to university finishing with a Post Graduate degree. That degree and my hard work resulted in my attaining the position I have now and my salary enabled me to pay off my student loan. I have to ask just who are these ordinary New Zealanders that they keep championing? And why am I being penalised for working hard to get where I am? Because there is one thing for sure – I did not get to where I am by tramping on the backs of the “Ordinary New Zealander” I got where I am through shear hard work!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.