Is it 2002 all over again?

August 27th, 2014 at 6:22 pm by David Farrar

The latest 3 News poll has National down 2.5% to 45%, but Labour dropping even more (2.6%) to 26.4%. That is even lower than their 2011 result. So in National’s worst week, Labour drops even further.

There is volatility in the , but at this stage it is not people going from right to left. It is a transfer of votes within the right and left blocs. National losing to Conservatives and Labour losing to Greens and Winston.

The Conservatives at 4.6% is great news for them. Now it is just one poll, and let’s see what the others say. But it gives them what they need – relevance.

People will wonder what is the impact on the outcome if they made 5%? Well here is the result with them on 4.6% and 5.0%.

Conservatives 4.6%

Centre-Right 59 seats (Nat 57, ACT 1, UF1)

Centre-Left 53 seats (Lab 33, Greens 17, Internet Mana 3)

Centre 11 seats (NZ First 8, Maori 3)

This means National would need the Maori Party to govern, and Labour would need both NZ First and the Maori Party (plus Greens, Mana)

Conservatives 5.0%

Centre-Right 62 seats (Nat 54,  Conservatives 6, ACT 1, UF1)

Centre-Left 51 seats (Lab 32, Greens 16, Internet Mana 3)

Centre 11 seats (NZ First 8, Maori 3)

This means National would still need the Maori Party (or NZ First) to govern, but Labour would be unable to govern under any combination.

 

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120 Responses to “Is it 2002 all over again?”

  1. Andrew M (51 comments) says:

    Is it still sensible to assume that the Maori Party will win 3 electorate seats?

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  2. Redbaiter (9,632 comments) says:

    “This means National would still need the Maori Party (or NZ First) to govern, but Labour would be unable to govern under any combination.”

    Yep, but if the CP gets more than 5% (say 6 or 8%) that changes the whole picture.

    I hope Craig makes that prog Helen Key, poodle of extreme leftists Louisa Wall and Sue Bradford, sweat blood for every milligram of his support.

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  3. Richard (82 comments) says:

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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  4. EAD (1,329 comments) says:

    UKIP went from 3% to winning the most recent UK election in the space of 2 short years.

    Once the scales fall from the eyes about our illusion of choice politics, then the surge for the Conservative will take your breathe away.

    To quote Ron Paul – “It’s happening”

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  5. Bill Ted (93 comments) says:

    Paddy really is all style over substance. Thoroughly enjoyed his theatrics (count the times he says Dirty Politics), but he basically tries to sell these polls as a final result and claims it’s Key’s nightmare. Personally I think this is the exact poll National will have wanted. If anything is going to galvanise their supporters to vote it’s the thought of Winston holding the balance of power. Considering Labour dropped more than National despite two weeks of media smears, you have to say this is a terrible result for them. Demoralising really.

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  6. dad4justice (8,313 comments) says:

    I can see the conservatives getting 7.5% . People who vote are sick and tired of Helen Key and his socialist lap dogs. Time we injected some much needed integrity into parliament. Enough is enough.

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  7. adze (2,129 comments) says:

    Cautious, but I would be marginally happier with Conservatives over 5% than Winston Faust.

    Pity about IMana though if they really do get 3 MPs.

    DPF, what would the numbers be if Maori only got 1 seat in those scenarios?

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  8. duggledog (1,589 comments) says:

    I do believe it was Harriet who said Cons. was going to be the counter culture. National’s price that it always would have to pay for moving into Labour’s territory – exactly as Blair invaded the Tory constituency – was a gaping hole in its flank on the right of itself.

    Sorry Richard – you’ll have to wait another term for your funding, National will still lead the next administration. They haven’t even dropped the lollies yet.

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  9. flash2846 (289 comments) says:

    Sack Collins – end of story

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  10. davidp (3,588 comments) says:

    So if either Craig or Peters makes 5pct and the other doesn’t then they get to decide the government. But if both make 5pct then Labour would need both, but National would need just one of them. Either way we end up with populist left wing policies… no asset sales, no free trade, and extra government spending for special interests.

    NZ: politics Argentina style.

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  11. FeralScrote (226 comments) says:

    Frikkin` hilarious if Hagers` book gets Colin Craig over the line,not quite the result he would have been after methinks.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/polls/10430438/Conservatives-within-reach-of-Parliament-poll

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  12. Caleb (479 comments) says:

    Its starting to look dodgy for National, not to mention the drop they get on the day.

    I wonder what Craig is like in the boardroom, he goes for the lawyers quick smart, so no push-over that may suggest.

    I’m voting Conservative and my best case scenario is a Nat/Con government, with concessions.

    I can just see JK preferring a more progressive Nat/NZF/Maori coalition.
    If this is the case I would be happy with the Conservatives outside.

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  13. Redbaiter (9,632 comments) says:

    duggledog, you’re on to it man, that’s an extremely good analysis.

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  14. EAD (1,329 comments) says:

    Years and years of “private members bills” and “conscience votes” regardless of National or Labour being in power.

    Unpopular, unwanted policies foisted on the electorate without mandate.

    Parties once in power ditching their manifestos and becoming something completely different.

    The rise of the Conservatives is as foreseeable as day following night. To continue with a meteorological theme, it looks like it is springtime in New Zealand.

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  15. Dead Earnest (160 comments) says:

    Ulitimate own goal by Hager.
    Conservative party based on Christian principles gains from left-wing smear campaign!!!

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  16. Pete George (23,687 comments) says:

    Craig said the Conservative rise was due to a letter box drop of their pamphlet. That is likely to part of the reason. It’s fairly likely both National and Labour bled support due to dirty politics backlash.

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  17. Berend de Boer (1,716 comments) says:

    FeralScrote: Frikkin` hilarious if Hagers` book gets Colin Craig over the line

    What did it was not the book, but John Key’s reaction to it. You don’t leak civil servants name to the a blogger for public retribution. Never ever. That’s not normal politics. John Key should have used this book to position him as leader. But as the last 6 years have shown, he didn’t have it in him.

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  18. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    Optional Income Tax,
    12 Weeks Paid Annual Leave
    Renewable Marriage Licences….

    This binding referenda stuff is going to be a hoot!

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  19. hj (7,066 comments) says:

    EAD (805 comments) says:
    August 27th, 2014 at 6:39 pm

    UKIP went from 3% to winning the most recent UK election in the space of 2 short years.
    ……
    It’s a shame NZ First and Conservative are splitting the vote. We need to vote on issues.

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  20. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    I would say that a 2.5% drop is nothing much at all. If this is all Hager’s nonsense has managed, it hasn’t worked.

    More importantly the Left is stagnant, and Labour is down as well and cannot form a government under almost any scenario.

    This far out, with more policies still to be announced, I think National will be reasonably pleased with this result.

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  21. Nostalgia-NZ (5,281 comments) says:

    I agree with Berend de Boer, but the question is why didn’t JK use the book to more firmly establish himself. The Conservatives gain, but Winston more so.

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  22. Caleb (479 comments) says:

    Judith.

    It is a democracy, the majority isn’t dumb.

    If the are, then they can only own the blame.

    I can’t see any of those things you have suggested, in jest maybe, being voted for by a majority.

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  23. EAD (1,329 comments) says:

    @ ShawnLH,

    here’s a little thought experiment for you.

    If National had to choose between Labour and the Conservatives to form a government, who would National pick?

    Which if those 2 parties more closely align with National philosophically?

    Based on ACTIONS rather than rhetoric, I think it would be Labour.

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  24. Unity (611 comments) says:

    Brilliant news re the Conservatives. I’m willing to bet they will be well over the 5% threshold by election time. People don’t want more of the same (National) and a Labour/Green Government frightens the life out of thinking people. Fingers crossed for the Conservatives.

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  25. Pete George (23,687 comments) says:

    One thing in Key’s favour over his poor handling of dirty politics is that he still has time to recover. Last election he stumbled on the cup of teas and let Winston back in.

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  26. Dead Earnest (160 comments) says:

    And again THE MSM concentrate on National’s drop.
    The real story is the demise of Labour
    A great headline would be “Labour loses 10% of it’s support in a month”
    My guess is, it will be a long sleepless night tonight for Mr Cunliffe.
    Actually this poll is what the Nats need, to scare their supporters out of complacency and down to the pollong booths or risk – well who know what!

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  27. oldpark (382 comments) says:

    Can take any result other than Materalistic Turei ( alias Friar Tucks reincarnation),and Russel Norman( alias Leon Trotsky or is it Joe Stalins reincarnation) from the Robbing Hoodie” green” Party, and massive National Party sign destruction.Both commie pests hiding under the cloak of responsibility,and hypocricy.

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  28. hj (7,066 comments) says:

    In the latest 3 News poll, [Not in curiablog] 77 percent of voters said yes, there should be stricter controls placed on foreign ownership of land and housing, and just 20 percent said no.

    Even two-thirds of Mr Key’s own voters, 65 percent, want stricter controls.

    “That sounds like a good idea, just to have some checks and balances to stop people from buying so many properties when us first-home buyers can’t even buy one,” says Ms Wassenaar. “That would make a huge difference.”

    Mr Key says it won’t. The attitude to foreign ownership is clear on the biggest potential deal – Lochinver Station.

    Asked if the Government should approve it, 68 percent said no, decline it, and only 25 percent said yes. A clear majority of National voters, 53 percent, say no sale.

    The housing problem has no easy fix.

    http://www.3news.co.nz/politics/poll-majority-support-restricting-foreign-ownership-2014082518#ixzz3BXLG5OOE

    NZ Herald DigiPoll Mid August 2014

    Farm Sales to Foreigners

    13% no restrictions
    33% ban
    50%+ approve if it brings advantages such as jobs
    ….
    A bit mischievous since people will likely hear the first bit?

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  29. Odakyu-sen (752 comments) says:

    “Something Wonderful Will Happen…”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yM25-lz1Yms

    (Yes, it’s corny, I know…)

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  30. duggledog (1,589 comments) says:

    Clark had way shitter numbers than this and she still managed to get a third term. John Key’s administration may be in a bit of trouble but he hasn’t personally:

    Defended and kept on an MP like Philip Field
    Lied baldly about signing a painting he hadn’t painted
    Sent some cops down the road because he didn’t know he was doing the ton
    Blown the best economic years since WW2 and put the country into recession before the GFC

    You know the rest.

    The Nats would have been expecting a Hager ambush; it’s what he does every three years and they will have planned for it. I’m still calling something like 20c a litre off excise and watch the f***ers tick Blue, no worries

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  31. flash2846 (289 comments) says:

    In fact; sack all obese people. Two left in Labour, Two in Greens and 45 in National. Oi! Slater where the Fuck are those emails between you and Greens/Labour creeps that make them look dirty? You Fat Fuck! You totally need to fuck off as well. Loser!
    We $ contributors to New Zealand may well suffer because of your pathetic lack of security; you Cunt!!
    You and Collins should have a shag and produce the ultimate political virus. Prick!
    Demerits on the way, ouch!

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  32. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ Caleb (475 comments) says:
    August 27th, 2014 at 7:00 pm

    I work on these facts Caleb.

    100 is the average IQ level. Therefore I presume that many people have a lower IQ, and probably won’t think of the consequences of such a decision. Then there are those that just don’t agree with binding referenda, and so would want to prove a point, and add to those the number of people that don’t support the government and want to cause a re-election – and maybe it would work!

    All one needs is 51% – and I think it could be achieved, at least on the optional income tax. ;-)

    Binding Referenda is a stupid move – there has to be some form of control that regulates them to be in keeping with things like ‘reality’.

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  33. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    I while back in 1985 Michael J Fox gave us “Back to the Future”.

    Twenty-nine years later Colin Craig borders on a leading role in “Forward to the Past” starring a cast of Godnutters & control freaks.

    Be very afraid……a medieval darkness threatens our country.

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  34. hj (7,066 comments) says:

    On the Panel Tim Watkins and Mike Williams agreed that Labour are all over the place on immigration. What can the party that blessed us with diversity, high house prices and destruction of national identity do? We are the fuel exploding out the back of the rocket ship propelling Agatha Clark to the UN.

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  35. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    “All one needs is 51% – and I think it could be achieved, at least on the optional income tax. ”

    Judith, from what I understand the CP’s proposal would have the bar set at 65%, so the kind of frivolous referenda you’re rightly concerned about are less likely.

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  36. Redbaiter (9,632 comments) says:

    “Be very afraid……a medieval darkness threatens our country.”

    Hah.. wonderful..

    Craig needs to put in for a bulk order of strait jackets for all the progs who are losing their marbles completely…

    You just keep preaching the same old smug hillbilly bullshit Narsekissa, its working like a charm.

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  37. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    “Be very afraid……a medieval darkness threatens our country.”

    Taking over Ugly’s role as chief tin foil hat wearer Naaska. ;)

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  38. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ ShawnLH (4,399 comments) says:
    August 27th, 2014 at 7:19 pm

    Yeah, but that’s 65% of those that vote on the referendum – which is never 50% or more of the general population, unless run in conjunction with a general election.

    Besides, the first one I’d go for would be to get rid of MMP – I reckon that would do really well. Imagine that, CC the master of his own demise!!

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  39. hj (7,066 comments) says:

    With professor Paul Spoonley at Mission Controll and Hugh Pavletich at Houston.

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  40. Caleb (479 comments) says:

    Judith.

    If you look at the referenda we have had in the past, there have been no ‘lets make Dan Carter president’ questions. Let alone the majority (67% possibly) voting for it.

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  41. Ross12 (1,456 comments) says:

    The main feature of this poll is that despite the MSM being all over it, the Hager book has made no difference. This backs up the poll from TV1 ( I think ) on the book that said 82% would not change their voting because Hager.
    So this is great news for NZ.
    National still have a lot of work to do. I hope the KDC threat 5 days out is as “effective” as Hagers book.

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  42. hj (7,066 comments) says:

    Steven Franks had a go at the media over the way Colin Craigs comments on the moon landing were taken out of context?

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  43. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    “The main feature of this poll is that despite the MSM being all over it, the Hager book has made no difference.”

    Exactly. Despite TV3’s extremely over the top rhetoric, Hager’s conspiracy theories have fallen flat.

    That said, as much as I have admired her in the past, Key would do himself and the party a favor by dumping Collins and making a clean break.

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  44. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ nasska (10,856 comments) says:
    August 27th, 2014 at 7:14 pm

    well you can blame Johnboy and the likes for wishing I’d go to hell.

    A national coalition with Colin, Winston, and the Maori party, is definitely my kind of hell!

    Gotta be careful what you wish for – dark forces and all that!! ;-)

    I’d even be tempted to vote for Johnny if it would stop that sort of conclusion!

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  45. duggledog (1,589 comments) says:

    That 2% rise for the Cons is some of my mates who told me a while back after some prodding they were thinking of voting CC. Party vote anyway. Clearly they have decided!

    Apart from the usual shit like effing Maoris worth $40,000,000,000 already but still wanting more, tougher penalties for rock apes etc, they respond to the asset sales opposition. Here’s why:

    Believe it or not Labour and National, they understand WHY we had to PARTIALLY sell SOME; but they don’t like it because if we stop throwing money down the shitter, WE WOULDN’T HAVE TO.

    If Colin could just articulate the above, then he would get over the line. He gets some of the anti asset sales voters who don’t actually know why they are against them, but have fallen for the rhetoric, and he gets the voters who understand where the country is heading.

    He touched on it during his Herald interview; he is against selling farms to the chinks outright because if we just thought about it a different way… maybe we wouldn’t have to! It might be too late for this election but if he brings it to the debates he could get to parliament

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  46. hj (7,066 comments) says:

    We really need to reform our democracy. For one thing we can’t rely on the media to be balanced. The immigration issue is a good test case, the public must think all economists support immigration policy whereas nasty old WP is against it. Policy is made to reflect the world view of the well off and liberal elite.

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  47. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ Caleb (476 comments) says:
    August 27th, 2014 at 7:22 pm

    Given the events of the past couple of weeks, I don’t think anyone is acting normally Caleb. Anything is possible!

    (Most of what I say is tongue in cheek, you should never take me seriously, but I am a little concerned about some of CC policies, I do think he’s a nut bar)

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  48. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    …”I’d even be tempted to vote for Johnny if it would stop that sort of conclusion”….

    This is one election where the extremities of the political spectrum are enough to make a sane voter wake up screaming in the night Judith.

    A social reactionary like Colin on one end & Dotcom’s puppets on the other…..the possible outcomes of the voting are the stuff of nightmares

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  49. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    The Swiss seem to have a binding referendum system that works. California’s was a disaster, but that may be just the nature of the State and the general daftness of the average Cali voter.

    Craig may have made it a bottom line, but there is wriggle room for both him and Key to come to an agreement, such as a Parliamentary committee to look at the idea.

    It would be worthwhile looking at how the Swiss system works.

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  50. Radman (143 comments) says:

    Very humorous to see all the Christian Conservatives growing erections for the first time in many years thinking they will get over the 5 per cent threshold!! This is just one poll! The last one had them at just over 2 per cent. Where were the Christian Conservatives then?!?! Very quiet, that is where they were! One poll and they think i t is over! Amateurs!! My pick is they won’t even get 4 per cent! And won’t that be delicious.

    Liberals celebrate!

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  51. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    “A social reactionary like Colin”

    You say it like it’s a bad thing Naaska. :)

    Me, I like social reactionaries. I generally find them saner than Liberals! ;)

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  52. hj (7,066 comments) says:

    Dead Ernest
    The real story is the demise of Labour
    …..

    Only one in five white Britons votes for Labour

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/only-one-in-five-white-britons-votes-for-labour-9604547.html

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  53. Caleb (479 comments) says:

    duggledog, well said.

    Selling assets to pay for socialist policy and the retention of power.

    Not, selling them because we are rich, don’t need the government to own them and there are Kiwi companies that can grow them and provide the service better.

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  54. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    But you’re biased Shawn….. the Godbothering has addled your thinking processes. :)

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  55. Redbaiter (9,632 comments) says:

    “A social reactionary like Colin on one end & Dotcom’s puppets on the other…..the possible outcomes of the voting are the stuff of nightmares”

    Why don’t you face facts nutter. The country is fast losing patience with narcissistic big govt social liberals like you and the destruction you have brought upon what was once such a great little country.

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  56. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,922 comments) says:

    What a lot of hot air over just one poll.

    National supporters should ask themselves just one question.

    If you had to choose between Colin Craig and Winston Peters, which one would you like sitting at the Cabinet table?

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  57. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    Winston.

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  58. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    “But you’re biased Shawn.”

    Heh. Aren’t we all? :)

    Seriously though, look at the areas they are focusing on. None are really from the social conservative agenda, with the exception of law and order.

    And even IF they were able to squeeze National, they are not going after anything that is really going to impact on peoples private lives, and even with 5-7 MP’s they will still be a minority vote.

    Sadly, I don’t think Liberals have much to worry about.

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  59. Redbaiter (9,632 comments) says:

    “the Godbothering has addled your thinking processes.”

    Ha ha, keep em coming you insufferable pompous loon..

    This after

    “Be very afraid……a medieval darkness threatens our country.”

    Who’s got the addled thinking process??

    What a fucking laugh you are.

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  60. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    “If you had to choose between Colin Craig and Winston Peters, which one would you like sitting at the Cabinet table?”

    Craig, largely going on Winston’s past performance.

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  61. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    “The country is fast losing patience with narcissistic big govt social liberals like you ”

    Oops. apparently we are both big government Progressives now Naaska! Still got your membership card? I lost mine about 15 years ago! :)

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  62. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    I think Baity has redefined “Progressive” in the meantime Shawn.

    It now covers all to the left of Attila the Hun. :)

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  63. chris (647 comments) says:

    @ShawnLH

    The Swiss seem to have a binding referendum system that works. California’s was a disaster, but that may be just the nature of the State and the general daftness of the average Cali voter.

    Why do you think binding referenda in NZ would work like Switzerland and not like California? I suspect the daftness of the average NZ voter would make binding referenda as bad here as it does in California, but that’s just my opinion.

    I understand (from comments on this blog) that conservatives seem to think that binding referenda would prevent the sorts of laws being passed such as the recent one, which allowed same-sex couples to marry.

    I do personally think that laws such as these (which tend to be made by politicians using “conscience votes”) should be voted on by binding referenda, but I suspect the outcome of such votes would not necessarily be what the conservatives would have hoped for.

    I’m not all that keen on all and sundry citizen’s initiated binding referenda in NZ, though, as I suspect we’d end up in a situation like has happened in California.

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  64. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    I think Red redefines Progressive every five minutes just to suit his arguments.

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  65. Redbaiter (9,632 comments) says:

    With the support of drooling idiot progs like you and Shorn Narsekissa, the Nats have been able to redefine themselves as the 1970’s Labour Party. Or even further left.

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  66. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    “Why do you think binding referenda in NZ would work like Switzerland and not like California?”

    It depends entirely on where the thresholds are set. They could be set in such a way that frivolous referendums are far less likely to get anywhere.

    I think Craig’s thinking is less to do with gay marriage and more about how the anti-smacking law was introduced despite massive public opposition.

    You are right though that they are a two edged sword.

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  67. Tom Barker (148 comments) says:

    “what was once such a great little country.”

    What historical period do you have in mind, Master Baiter? Around 1935, under the first Labour Govt? Or are you talking about the 19th century? I’m, truly intrigued to know.

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  68. Pete George (23,687 comments) says:

    It would be worthwhile looking at how the Swiss system works.

    Switzerland has a much different democratic culture, history (for example they were last to allow universal suffrage, we were first) and they have a much different canton (province) based political structure.

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  69. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    ….”Nats have been able to redefine themselves as the 1970′s Labour Party. Or even further left.”…..

    Yet they have had to move incrementally to the left every election just to stay centre right.

    What does that tell you of the shift to the left of the general electorate?

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  70. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    “With the support of drooling idiot progs like you and Shorn”

    Having trouble with the spell check there Redcoward?

    I’m not a prog. Would a prog want to see the CP in parliament? Of course not you brainless idiot.

    You still live with your Mom don’t you Red. :)

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  71. Redbaiter (9,632 comments) says:

    “What does that tell you of the shift to the left of the general electorate?”

    That too many of them are idiots like you, gormless victims of cultural Marxism.

    The turnabouts starting in case you haven’t noticed loser.

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  72. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    There’s no turnabout Baity…..just the transferring of the support of a small number of socially conservative malcontents from National to the Nuts.

    The relentless slide to the Left will continue…..you’re a fish flapping on dry sand as the tide goes out. :)

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  73. Redbaiter (9,632 comments) says:

    “What historical period do you have in mind, Master Baiter? Around 1935, under the first Labour Govt? Or are you talking about the 19th century? I’m, truly intrigued to know.”

    Without being too specific, the destruction began in the late 60’s early 70’s and accelerated from that point on as cultural Marxism reached through our television sets and corrupt media and drooling idiots like Narsekissa sucked it all up. The political corruption of the education system has also had a lot to do with it.

    Most social stats support this thesis.

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  74. Colville (2,300 comments) says:

    Its just one poll.

    If I was a Standard blogger I would be shouting ROUGE ! ( <<===assuming that isnt the red warpaint whores use?)

    anyways…

    Would this result have been better for the Right one week out from the big day?

    My feeling is Cons will leak support from this poll and so will NZF but only NZF will break 5% on the big day.

    'baiter and d4j are dreammmming mate!

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  75. Redbaiter (9,632 comments) says:

    “There’s no turnabout Baity…..just the transferring of the support of a small number of socially conservative malcontents from National to the Nuts.”

    Yeah I get it Narsekissa, anyone not a prog is insane.

    That’s how Stalin who once controlled the Soviet Socialist Republic thought too.

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  76. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    “That too many of them are idiots like you, gormless victims of cultural Marxism.”

    You really have no clue, and no intellectual ability, to argue a point do you Redcoward.

    Seriously, you are the very definition of an idiot. 0 ability to defend your views. 0 ability to make the case for your views. All you do is sputter abuse then run away.

    Now you will, predictably, respond with your usual bullshit claim that you don’t bother with us lesser mortals, but the truth is that you have no ability to engage your brain and actually make a coherent argument, so it’s easier to just run away or sputter abuse like a coward.

    Sad. Sad and pathetic.

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  77. burt (8,321 comments) says:

    … but Labour would be unable to govern under any combination.

    Music to my ears. Seriously, the economy is only starting to recover from last time they were in office, let’s not repeat the cycle of tax and spend into recession before we’ve had a few more years getting over the last one.

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  78. dad4justice (8,313 comments) says:

    ” ‘baiter and d4j are dreammmming mate!”

    Dreams are free, no wait the socialists are going tax them with the help of the dream police. $80 billion a year is not enough for big government.

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  79. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    …”anyone not a prog is insane”…..

    The chem trails & moon landings notwithstanding? :)

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  80. Redbaiter (9,632 comments) says:

    So symptomatic of prog insanity Narsekissa, the enthusiasm for lies in place of truth.

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  81. ShawnLH (5,757 comments) says:

    Anyway, I’m off to my local to see if I can find any under cover cops. :)

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  82. nasska (11,813 comments) says:

    Godbless! :)

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  83. mara (795 comments) says:

    This is all a complete waste of time. Who cares?

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  84. Fisiani (1,048 comments) says:

    Some people react to every poll as if that will be the result on 20th September. If National get 46% and Cons 4% and NZF get 4% and the other small wasted votes add up to 2% then National would be reallocated 46% of 10% which is 4.6% thus 50.6% which would be phenomenal.

    Do the voters of TTT want Hone, Lailla Hare , Minto and Sykes or will they choose Kelvin Davis who has no chance of being a list MP being so lowly ranked. Kelvin really wants to win.
    ACT and UF have the benefit of an electorate seat and if either get just 1.2% then they get 2 MP’s. 2.5% means 3 MP’s. None of their votes are wasted. They will make this known.
    My own view is that if NZF get 5% then Winston will choose who is PM.
    The only certainty is that National need every voter to start advance voting from Wednesday 3rd Sept

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  85. Colville (2,300 comments) says:

    Winston is a lot of things but stupid is not one of them.

    he knows that any Govt formed using Lab, Gree, Inter/Mana, Maori and NZF would not last out 6 months and would be a laughing stock for those 6 months.

    He wants better than that. End of story really.

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  86. Reid (16,634 comments) says:

    This is relevant because it’s the first poll which indicates the impact of the Dirty Politics meme.

    And according to it, the meme hasn’t worked as planned.

    Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww.

    Lots of shouting in the War Room tonight.

    Sure, trends count and this isn’t a trend. But as indicators go, it’s in the right direction, for those who don’t wish to be governed by galloping mentals.

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  87. dishy (248 comments) says:

    Why does Gower say (claim without explaining) that Key must now be regretting not “gifting” East Coast Bays to Craig? Key would have done that only to bring the Conservatives on board in an advantageous way. If – as seems likely – the Conservatives get 5%, Key will get them on board but without attracting the “dirty deal” criticism peddled by those who don’t understand how MMP works – in both theory and practice.

    Nice shot, Key.

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  88. Lindsay Addie (1,594 comments) says:

    I thought the damage to National may have been a full percentage point more. So in retrospect it isn’t such a bad result for Key and friends despite his less than stellar performances last week.

    As for Labour they must be more concerned than ever and there is no doubt that Cunliffe isn’t making the desired impact. This is due to a) the dirty politics scandal taking them away from the limelight and b) Their sometimes confusing and unclear policy statements. This has dogged them throughout 2014.

    Peters meanwhile has benefitted from staying out of the dirty politics scrap and sensibly the party has tidied up the list and demoted or removed undesirable candidates. Peters will need to convince the electorate by election day that he is capable of being a reasonable and responsible coalition partner. I see him as being very uneasy about coalescing with the Greens. Those two parties just wouldn’t gel.

    The Greens have run a disciplined campaign so far and have established a solid support base for themselves. The Conservatives are an interesting bunch. I think they have a real role to play in NZ politics in the future. Craig has some zany ideas but heck there are already some other zanies in Parliament. The question is will McCully take one for the team and give Craig and friends a seat in the Parliament?

    Personally I’d rather have Craig in Parliament than Dunne who I do not like. This guy just cosies up to the winning side after each election and has no principles worth debating.

    The TV leaders debate tomorrow is now of critical importance. If the clashes in Parliament are any indication then Key goes in as a warm favourite. But as many won’t have high expectations of Cunliffe’s performance he could make some headway with a solid effort. He will need to explain himself a lot better than he has otherwise Key will put him under considerable pressure. Key will also have to up his game and do a lot better than in the interview with Espiner on Radio NZ last week when he was poor.

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  89. EAD (1,329 comments) says:

    @ Reid:

    The whole “vote positive” meme of Labour should surely start ringing alarm bells in any critical thinking persons head that this whole thing was a jack-up right from the start. They knew that this smear campaign was coming and pre-faced it by making this their campaign message.

    People need to start connecting dots and realise politics in this country may as well be a Kabuki Theatre staged by actors. They keep us distracted with “left vs. right” while giving us the illusion that voting for one of the other parties will solve things. Until people take responsibility for their own actions and do their own research, it won’t.

    This graphic below sums it all up:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-13/picturing-march-tyranny

    Mark Twain — ‘If voting made any difference they wouldn’t let us do it.’

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  90. Sam Hill (42 comments) says:

    Margin of error is 3.1% in this poll. That’s enough to suggest the socially conservative swing this poll reveals may be a one off.

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  91. Reid (16,634 comments) says:

    That’s enough to suggest the socially conservative swing this poll reveals may be a one off.

    If NBR announced that poll I’d be with you Sam. Since it was TV3, I’ll smile quietly at justice done. The whole team must have spent the afternoon in a very complicated whiteboard session deciding just how to spin it without seeming too despairing.

    ..this whole thing was a jack-up right from the start…People need to start connecting dots and realise politics in this country may as well be a Kabuki Theatre staged by actors.

    Wish they would EAD. Doubt they will. As is I assume also your mileage on that.

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  92. Griff (8,199 comments) says:

    Happy happy joy joy
    if loony crag gets in there is going to be soooo many upset conservonutters to laugh at for months on kb nasska

    When they realize their golden boy is a fully fledged weirdo not even conservative right just wacko fringe moonbat material.

    I for one cant wait . More fun than even redblather.

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  93. wiseowl (936 comments) says:

    The only loonies around are those on here who keep putting the boot in to the CP in the hope it will go away.

    They will get over the line and they will beat Winston First.

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  94. mandk (1,018 comments) says:

    nasska wets his knickers at the prospect of a socially conservative government.
    But that would be way better than having a government comprising even more progressives, libertines and moral relativists.

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  95. Nostalgia-NZ (5,281 comments) says:

    It’s only speculation that NZF and the CP have increased their vote in this poll because of the Hager book. The next page however is if that speculation is correct I’m not sure JK can pull the vote back, primarily because if it is a generally held belief that the revelations contained in ‘Dirty Politics’ are true then JK doesn’t appear to have an answer to that. Similarly, he has not acted in a way that will instil confidence that he has seen a problem, responded and remains in control. Some ruthlessness at the outset, whether justified or not – may have completed a picture as to him having dealt with the ‘leaking,’ ‘feeding’ and so on. As it is this poll gives the speculation more wings.

    Moving onto another aspect, if votes are being peeled away from National, no one really knows the pattern as to where they will fall. If for example Labour are at their minimum popularity level, or near it, then where is Nationals minimum level. Topsy turvy stuff.

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  96. Dennis Horne (2,403 comments) says:

    Nosty, does JK have blood on his hands? Can you see it? You do seem to see it everywhere. Where it isn’t, I mean. Not talking about the other business. Ssh.

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  97. Milk Me (157 comments) says:

    I doubt anyone can accurately predict the results so any speculations are just that.
    With so many unknowns to come, the possibility of a mental breakdown by Key or Collins having a meltdown is something to look forward to, the quivering lips and slight worried tremble in his voice leads one to imagine all is not OK in his psychopathic brain. More whaledumps to come and there is always Sept 15, another unknown and Mr trembles aint as confident as he like to portray on that matter.
    All in all it will be fun to watch, stock up on the popcorn, roll a fat one and crack a beer. There will be tears.
    Oh and I for one cannot wait for Slater Bug to return, I reckon his cosy relationship with the responsible media wont be anymore, his “sponsorships” will mostly have dried up, the impending visit from the IRD the door knock from the police to issue him with a summons and to remove his firearms and licence. He would probably be better of to glue on his yamaka and stay put as he is now person non grata now. Ha fuckity ha. Couldn’t happen to a nicer person eh?

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  98. lolitasbrother (751 comments) says:

    It would be surprising if voters did not see the dilemma within the NZ First and Conservative vote split,
    Both parties are socially conservative, so there should be a claw back to NZ Nat.
    Overseas voters may be quite influential , but the web site “Vote NZ election 2014” site still looks complicated.
    How many New Zealanders really wish to sell our Country out to KDCrim, and those hands in his pockets

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  99. IGM (527 comments) says:

    I have seen some displays of sanctimony, but “Goose” Cunliffe displayed the best last night. Does he have a natural or original answer for anything . . . he is a total failure. Can’t wait to see Hager when justice is meted out, he and his German mate will need plenty of grease.

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  100. Mark (1,493 comments) says:

    The left is a gaggle of idiots that will completely reverse all of the economic gains and burden us with fruit loop policies that will take years to extract ourselves from. In the past six years the thing that has labour unelectable is its association with the greens and more recently mana/internet. Quite sensibly the majority of New Zealander’s are scared shitless of what these people will do to our country. Then labour inflicts union control on itself with the double vote for the unions in the unfathomable leadership selection process and now the voters are frightened of them as well.

    National under Key has understood that positioning itself as a genuine centre right party rather than as a strongly right leaning party appeals to the people who’s votes count, the group who are not so ideologically driven that they wont change their vote from National to Labour if it suits them. National has also been able to avoid any potential connection with the type of nutter fringe parties that dog the left. Now he faces the prospect of having to deal with one in Colin Craig’s conservatives.

    Perhaps fortunately for Key, Craig as given him an escape card of sorts by making binding referenda a bottom line issue. If the Conservatives get across the line Key can hopefully use that to sit him outside any coalition government knowing that Craig will harangue the left no matter what happens.

    As an aside you have to expect that if he gets elected Craig will be sending a sizable gift to Judith Collins. Collins has put the National Party at risk with her dealings with Slater. Her colleagues should be highly pissed off and Key should drop her from Cabinet after the election for plain stupidity.

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  101. IGM (527 comments) says:

    MM: You are a real envious left-wing leech and like the rest of the scum, a nark . . . what goes around comes around.

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  102. kiwi in america (2,511 comments) says:

    Some thoughts about the RR/TV3 poll:
    1 – The last RR poll before this poll reported National’s vote at the lowest end of the 4 major polls (Fairfax/Ipsos, CB/One News and Herald Digi) and even lower (from memory) than the more volatile Roy Morgan of all the polls taken in the 2nd/3rd week of August so National’s decline in this poll comes off the lowest base.
    2 – This RR poll was conducted from Aug 20 – 25 where the majority of this polling period was covering a time when National and Key were being hammered still over the Collins OIA leak to Slater and still floundering to get back on message. National’s successful launch was on the last night of polling period so only 20% of respondents could be influenced by that event. If Key manages to keep up the message discipline and the Nats seize back at least some of the agenda off the Hager obsessed media, then this may represent a low point for National’s polling.
    3 – The Conservatives managed about 1.3% higher in 2011 than they got in the last pre-election polls. It’s too early to tell if this result is an outlier for the Conservatives but if the trend of National votes leaking to CC continues in other polls, then the under sampling of C voters inherent in the polls could well see them cross 5%.
    4 – Labour is still leaking support to the Greens and a little to IMP as Cunliffe has been far less visible in the Hager media firestorm.
    5 – In 2011 NZ 1st was the recipient of disgruntled National voters after Key’s comments in the pot of tea tape although much more directly because the comment was about NZ 1st voters and it gave Peters a huge amount of outraged air time. That said, older National voters who don’t know or understand blogs in the modern political era, are more likely to be offended by Slater’s hard edged aggressive streams of emailed consciousness and NZ 1st, due to Peters age and his populist and silver top friendly persona, would be seen as a safer centre-right protest receptacle than Colin Craig.
    6 – The poll reinforces National’s advertising – Labour can only govern with the Greens + IMP + Maori AND NZ 1st even with National at this low ebb due to their own low ebb. That is a hydra headed monster that Peters will not run with.
    7 – Each poll that shows Labour down and the Greens up emboldens the Greens to demand more from Labour (e.g. the co-deputy PM role touted). Cunliffe refusing to rule out IMP on confidence and supply (because he needs them) makes it easy for Key to tag the Greens and IMP to Cunliffe by saying, rightly, that a vote for Labour is a vote for Greens in government propped up by Kim Dotcom.
    8- Dotcom and Corkery’s extraordinary antics at the IMP launch are also not fully reflected in this poll but can’t have done IMP any favours and Hare’s defense of KDC’s boast about hacking the former German Chancellor’s credit was woeful and pathetic even by her standards.
    9 – The Greens have consistently drawn 1.5% fewer actual votes than their pre-election polling due to their supporters being younger and more fickle – this has been consistent across the last 4 elections.
    10 – The poll highlights that National’s ground game on election day needs to be spot on. The run up to 2011 was done against the backdrop of polling consistently indicating a govern alone scenario. A poll like this tells National’s campaign team that they need to fight for every vote and that there cannot be any complacency.

    John Key needs to up his game. Bluster against Hager only has limited appeal. I can only surmise that either their internal polling tells them that the Hager effect was temporary and less than the media thinks or Collins’ supporters on the backbench have spooked Key into not asking for her resignation. If he does well in the debates and keeps the messaging on National’s economic management, he ought to claw back some of the lost support to create a sufficient buffer to weather the effects of the Dotcom September 15th ‘revelation’.

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  103. radvad (772 comments) says:

    NZ First should be worried. This poll will give their soft supporters the confidence to support the Cons.

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  104. waikatogirl (657 comments) says:

    Heard political reporter on Duncan Gardiner’s show say that Cunliffe had taken a day and a half off to prepare for tonights debate! There was laughter! Cunliffe must be packing himself going up against Key in a debate as Key is so relaxed and more importantly knows his answers backwards. Keep preparing C.

    Good luck John, not that you need it…

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  105. deadrightkev (532 comments) says:

    Redbaiter is 100% right.

    Craig will strike fear into the soul of the progressive National party if he ends up kingmaker as I suspect he will after the self inflicted Slater National dirty tricks. He has a fixed set of principles. National and Labour have a flexible set of principles depending on who will give them the levers of power.

    No BCIR, then maybe a referendum on whether we should have BCIR is a good option. Either way the people should decide how they want their democracy. They haven’t had any for decades.

    I suspect the reluctant fringe Nat conservatives have now realised the smiling Mr Key is a shameless facade. Its time to clean up parliament and get some real policy direction away from our rampant progressivism.

    Watch for the dirty tricks and grovelling.

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  106. BushBaby (9 comments) says:

    The latest poll reads as a slight shift to the right. NZF and CP are both centre-right parties and gained off Labour as much as Nats. So Dirty Politics has burnt Cunliffe as well (a singe maybe).

    What I would like to know is are the polls based on population age demographics or age of voter demographics? These are two different things. Winston vote goes up on election day because his largely elderly vote always turns up. Greens, IMP, Labour more likely to stay at home – on computer, watching free streaming movies and eating KFC. Conservatives might also get same election day lift?

    Good for John Key to have two viable centre right parties to play off one another. I am very relaxed about this poll. Labour must be in knots!

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  107. Mike Readman (366 comments) says:

    I have only this to say to all the National supporters on here (and the few Labour ones): your party is too old, let go. It’s over, nobody likes you anymore!

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  108. Scott (1,819 comments) says:

    I agree with kev. The voter of traditional morals used to reliably go to the National party. However national have left them for the siren call of the soft left leaning Labour voter and to keep the mainstream media on side. I believe there are hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders who are vehemently against the social changes that have been snuck in over the last decade. Colin Craig hopes to get their support and despite unfair media attention he is likely to get it.

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  109. BushBaby (9 comments) says:

    Evidence suggests nearly half NZers like National more than the alternatives. Nobody’s perfect!

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  110. Left Right and Centre (2,997 comments) says:

    (1) Hager book will have as much influence as someone selling cabbage burgers outside McDonalds.

    (2) Pffffffff – polls schmolls. It’s up, no wait – it’s down. It’s disco baby. Get on up. Yeah. Now – we’re gonna get down.

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  111. waikatogirl (657 comments) says:

    M Redman
    That isn’t a mature argument!

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  112. NK (1,257 comments) says:

    Oh, come on. The TV3 poll has a margin of error of 3.1%. It’s completely unreliable.

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  113. deadrightkev (532 comments) says:

    So Act could have polled less than 0% and they are close to 0% now after starting in 1996.

    I think we can safely assume that the wrong people are running the party (Jamie Whyte excepted).

    Campaign strategy is fatally flawed too which was predicted at the start so its no surprise.

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  114. NK (1,257 comments) says:

    Yes, Act could be at 3.8% based on the MoE. Richard Prebble is the campaign director, but I know you know more than him about politics – you tell everyone here almost every day.

    I’ll tell you what’s wrong about the Conservative Party campaign: blatant populism. You were one of the people, along with Peter Tashkoff, who argued vociferously for Act to stop the populism and campaign on principle, yet the stuff I am hearing from Colin Craig is straight out blatant xenophobic populism and dog-whistle politics. Act may only win Epsom and get 2% this election, but I am bloody sure we would never stoop to the level of the Conservatives and the unbelievable economic rubbish they’re espousing.

    Riddle me this Kevin: How can a flat tax rate of 25% apply *after* a tax-free threshold of $20,000, and then including that tax free threshold being increased after every child you have so that if you have, say, 6 kids, under the Conservatives, you have a tax free threshold of $80,000. Where is the budget that can support that? Has the Conservative Party done one? I know the answer – and it’s NO!

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  115. NK (1,257 comments) says:

    And Kevin, I can tell you what the campaign strategy for Act was this election, and it was threefold:

    1. Survive.
    2. Win Epsom.
    3. Get Jamie Whyte elected.

    That’s all. Because of “supporters” like you, Act has had to rebuild. And it is.

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  116. grumpyoldhori (2,362 comments) says:

    deadrightkev Craig will strike fear into National, with 5% of the vote how the hell will they manage that ?
    Bloody hell some of you conservative supporters believe that Craig will be the next PM.
    Now will the Conservatives go into coalition with National if they are told that we will not be going back to beating up small kids for fun ?

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  117. NK (1,257 comments) says:

    Exactly, goh. *If* they are elected, and I still have major doubts about that, they will soon disiscover the political realities are a world apart from their fantasy world of binding referenda.

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  118. deadrightkev (532 comments) says:

    Nick, you do yourself no favours by dredging up old smear campaigns because they backfired. Did Act go on to greatness during and after the Hide years? The sad tragedy that Act has become (despite great policies) and well intentioned people doing their utmost is laid bare for all to see. Peter Tashkoff is top shelf and principled. He was a huge loss to Act and so were the many others who walked and they clearly have never looked back have they?

    No party has a suite of policies that are perfect and at the end of the day it comes down to the sincerity of the leader for me because he will hold sway when the going gets tough. I think Colin Craig and Jamie Whyte would work well together under pressure and against the National progressivism when it counts for NZ. That is exciting. That sadly was never going to be the case in the last two election terms.

    Richard Prebble has failed in this campaign because he did not understand the basics of wiping the slate clean. He was a poor choice from day one because he is a John Key cheerleader who believes Epsom is the key to survival. I once admired him but he just wasn’t up to this job. How successful has Kenneth Wang been for the party and its polling? That was only one obvious clanger. I will keep the others to myself.

    Still three weeks to go so the winner will only just be starting to sharpen. Race day 20th September.

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  119. lolitasbrother (751 comments) says:

    from Kiwi in America above
    quote
    “– The poll reinforces National’s advertising – Labour can only govern with the Greens + IMP + Maori AND NZ 1st even with National at this low ebb due to their own low ebb. That is a hydra headed monster that Peters will not run with.”
    unquote

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  120. Changeiscoming (199 comments) says:

    grumpyoldhori you lost all credibility with this statement
    “we will not be going back to beating up small kids for fun ?” You and other liberals don’t realise that the child abuse has never stopped! It has even increased since the AS law came into effect.

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  121. Boris Piscina (53 comments) says:

    You know I could have sworn I posted in this thread, but it ain’t there now. Bit close to the bone DPF, or have I had three rums too many and inadvertently put it somewhere else?

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