Maori Party ahead in Te Tai Hauāuru

August 28th, 2014 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curiablog the results of a Maori TV poll on Te Tai Hauāuru.

This is the seat held by Tariana Turia. Labour and almost all the pundits have been claiming it will be an easy win for Labour. I’ve never been so sure, as I think personal loyalty to Turia will still play a part in this election – even though she is retiring.

The poll showed the Maori Party candidate ahead by 3%. That shows it will be a close race. With a 500 person sample, it means there is an 81% chance McKenzie is actually leading.

Maori TV are polling all seven Maori seats. Lots of interest in the seats held by Flavell, Sharples (retiring) and Harawira. They may decide who gets to govern!

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13 Responses to “Maori Party ahead in Te Tai Hauāuru”

  1. Ross12 (1,425 comments) says:

    Has a poll been done in Kelvin Davis’s electorate ? That is the important one.

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  2. Tarquin North (296 comments) says:

    I so hope Kelvin wins. That would be an absolute kick in the face to KDC, Harawira, Harre, Minto, Sykes and all the other bludgers who are happily showing us what a bunch of grovelling prostitutes they really are. I never thought I would be cheering a Labour candidate on, but then again I never expected New Zealand politics to be hijacked by a fat German fraudster and a rat faced twat who uses stolen emails to write what he calls a book about politics. It’s a funny old world we live in.

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  3. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Tarquin: Well said.

    DPF: You say the result of the Maori seats may well determine who gets to govern…To me, that’s another damn good reason to abolish these racist anachronisms that have well and truly had their day.

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  4. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,903 comments) says:

    DG

    When John Key negotiates with Colin Craig and his six or seven MPs, he could cave in on the matter of binding referenda and have one on the abolition of Maori seats. Am I right in thinking there would need to be a 75% vote in parliament for said abolition to take place?

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  5. Sam Hill (42 comments) says:

    Not only loyalty to Turia, DPF. It’s hard to see anyone beating McKenzie in his home town of Tokoroa. We’re very loyal down there and that will give him a huge boost. He’s a former high school teacher and settlement negotiator for Ngati Raukawa. Voters there might well give him their electorate vote and their Party vote to Labour or someone else.

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  6. Bingo99 (88 comments) says:

    The Maori seats are an interesting one.

    I like the Maori Party and its attitude of being a constructive partner within government rather than a boo-hoo non-entity outside (take note Greens – if you actually care about the environment you’d be centrist and king/queenmaker at every damn election).

    But, from National’s perspective, the less successful the Maori Party is at this election, the better. It would reduce the overhang and increase the chance of a National majority or coalition sans NZ First.

    But the seat that really counts is Te Tai Tokerau. I’m a prog atheist (thanks RedB) but I’m willing to pray to any and all “gods” to ensure Hone gets the flick. Can you imagine? The entire Internet Mana campaign is predicate don him winning his seat – just imagine if he loses and they waste 2-3% of the vote. That would be beautiful.

    On the subject of Hone – why on earth has his mysterious car crash gone almost entirely unreported? He flipped his rental car, abandoned it and only fessed up a few days later. Was he drunk? Speeding (surely a given). Why is he not being investigated? Why did he abandon it? Was he avoiding drug and alcohol testing? Truly odd.

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  7. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Adolf: Yes, I think that’s right, although Graeme E is the guru on this…he is currently of course on retainer to the Fat German, and so isn’t here much. It has long been assumed that the Labour Party would resist abolition of “their” Maori seats…but I wonder if that is still the case given recent electoral results?

    Andrew Geddis (where’s my $200 Prof??) would also be able to answer this question better than me.

    Bingo: I hadn’t heard about this, so it has indeed been kept fairly quiet (I scan both major news sites first thing every morning) Hone is supposedly a non drinker, and I know of no evidence that suggests that is untrue. My guess is one of the whanau was driving it – perhaps without Uncle Hone’s permission. Are we honkey taxpayers – who he despises so much – good to fund this racist prick?

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  8. wiseowl (888 comments) says:

    Bingo.Are you suggesting there should be one law for all?

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  9. Tarquin North (296 comments) says:

    Bingo/David, the only place Hones accident was reported with any depth at all was the Northern Advocate. Hone set up a smoke screen by saying the cops didn’t investigate the shooting of his office properly but came round to bust him for an accident a few hours later. He shouted this as loud as he could to anyone who would listen, which makes the accident sound all the more dodgy. Inerestingly the cops hit back by saying they had investigated the shooting and didn’t consider Hone or his office to be a target and weren’t about to waste anymore rescourses on it. The Che Guevera figure he sees when he looks in the mirror is starting to look a bit ragged. A year ago the cops would have been on the defensive – not anymore. The people of the North are tired of empty promises and being painted as victims. Go Kelvin, your time has come.

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  10. polemic (460 comments) says:

    The cold hard facts are that if Kelvin Davis doesnt get in, in Te Tai Tokerau then the new government what ever way it goes will have to accommodate a leacherous unscrupulous crook who treats the law with contempt and buys favours to suit his own agenda.

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  11. DJP6-25 (1,387 comments) says:

    I won’t be voting for a party that supports institutional racism like Maori seats.

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  12. Bond (50 comments) says:

    Hone’s car crash (not “accident”) was the reason that Annette Sykes presented the Mana campaign opening speech last weekend in place of Hone — but of course this got overshadowed by Pam Corkery’s outburst.

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  13. ChardonnayGuy (1,206 comments) says:

    I won’t be voting for a party that supports institutional racism like the Conservative Party.

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