Coalition options

September 3rd, 2014 at 8:27 pm by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

The latest TV3 poll could see either National or Labour forming a Government.

But Labour could do only with the support of four other parties.

National could do so with the support of just one other party, either the Maori Party or New Zealand First.

National would be able to form a Government very similar to the current one, with the support of the Maori Party, Act and United Future on confidence and supply.

Labour would need both the Maori Party and New Zealand First, plus the Greens and Internet Mana.

Labour would actually need six parties including themselves as Mana and Internet only have a temporary alliance.

That means a Labour-led Government would need to get Labour, Greens, NZ First, Mana, Maori and Internet parties to all agree on something in order to be able to make a decision and progress law changes.

Think about that.

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68 Responses to “Coalition options”

  1. Southern Raider (1,830 comments) says:

    So National is the only real party to go up in this poll and Paddy focuses on their issues in forming a Govt?

    In two weeks Greens could be polling higher than Labour

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  2. Southern Raider (1,830 comments) says:

    And word from Cunliffe?

    After the Roy Morgan poll this afternoon he was talking Labour up and that National was on the ropes

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  3. Dennis Horne (2,403 comments) says:

    It takes dozens of muscles to laugh heartily but only one to pull the trigger of a decent sniper rifle… :) :) :)

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  4. Southern Raider (1,830 comments) says:

    Great to see that fuckwit Dunne still invisible. Wish an actual right wing candidate would stand against him in his electorate

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  5. geoff3012 (75 comments) says:

    Southern Raider (1,767 comments) says:
    September 3rd, 2014 at 8:31 pm
    And word from Cunliffe?

    After the Roy Morgan poll this afternoon he was talking Labour up and that National was on the ropes

    Funny looking ropes…….

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  6. nasska (11,525 comments) says:

    Dunne doesn’t hold Ohariu because of his right or left leanings. Rather he is a copybook constituency MP.

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  7. EAD (1,087 comments) says:

    Let’s just end the pretense that National & Labour must lead opposing teams and let them form a grand coalition.

    I mean, what do they actually disagree on?

    Flag change – No
    Welfarism – No
    Maori separatism – No
    Gay Marriage – No
    Nanny Statism – No
    Mass Immigration – No
    Inflating housing bubbles – No
    Borrow and Spend Socialism – No
    Middle Class welfare – No
    Appointing each other to lucrative NGO posts – No
    Attacks on smokers, smackers, paddling pool owners – No

    The only choice between them is who do you think does Socialism the best? I.e. should we spend $100m on clean water or $100m on a Christchurch train? Who is the best debater?

    Welcome to the world of illusions of choice politics otherwise known as a soft dictatorship.

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  8. ross001 (213 comments) says:

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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  9. lolitasbrother (698 comments) says:

    forget about it Farrar, it will happen that we will have a NZ NAT Government .
    You know yourself that the PM made some mistakes, too bad, unlike you Farrar you never out , good luck brother, you don’t get the MQ unless you walk in Hillary footsteps
    I feel sure now, its a good feeling.
    We must devise a system Farrar when a criminal at the bottom edge can not take out Country.
    I rely on you. This election is partly yours. I scare to see your power in 2015.

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  10. Dennis Horne (2,403 comments) says:

    EAD. What is Lee Kuan Yew doing these days? ;)

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  11. EAD (1,087 comments) says:

    Ahhhh yes Singapore,

    at least they manage their finances properly :)

    Also worth noting that their “mass immigration” is of people their country actually needs (i.e. in high tech, shipping, finance industries etc.) and they don’t feel the need to pander to minority cultures. If you come in to Singapore and go against their rules (including spitting) you will be severely reprimanded!! A bit to totalitarian for my liking but surely better than our current situation.

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  12. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    Socialism will be the only winner election day!

    God help this sick Nation.

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  13. ross001 (213 comments) says:

    National could do so with the support of just one other party, either the Maori Party or New Zealand First.

    Oh I didn’t realise John Key had agreed to a Commission of Inquiry into Dirty Politics…yeah nah that would count out NZF.

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  14. Tinshed (170 comments) says:

    It takes dozens of muscles to laugh heartily but only one to pull the trigger of a decent sniper rifle?

    Really? We want that sort of comment here? Appalling.

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  15. kowtow (8,487 comments) says:

    Key should have done a deal with Colin. Would have sent the right signal to the general electorate and helped get the Conservatives over the 5 %. Wouldn’t have to rely on the racist ,anti private property Maori Party,who are in no way natural partners for the Nats.

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  16. PaulL (5,981 comments) says:

    I don’t see a problem with a government that cannot do anything. But of course, they probably will do stuff, but just the crazy lefty stuff. Ah well, it’ll be interesting watching NZ go down the gurgler.

    @kowtow: National did deals with every party that was prepared to say that they’d only go into coalition with National. They did deals with no parties that said that, once they received that deal, they might go into coalition with Labour. Doesn’t seem a very complex concept. Colin Craig might want to think a bit harder on his strategy, because at the moment he wants to have it every which way, and he’s not a team player. Nobody likes to work with someone like that (of course, Winston is another in that vein, so maybe that’s who Colin wants to emulate).

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  17. goldnkiwi (1,304 comments) says:

    kowtow (7,979 comments) says:

    September 3rd, 2014 at 8:53 pm

    Conservatives on 4.2 off their own bat? I think a deal is worth considering if they hold that during the next couple of polls, but when they were in the terrible twos? No reason to.

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  18. Grant Michael McKenna (1,160 comments) says:

    So the only prospective government that won’t be able to achieve anything is Cunliffe’s?

    A reason to vote for one of them, perhaps…

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  19. burt (8,272 comments) says:

    That means a Labour-led Government would need to get Labour, Greens, NZ First, Mana, Maori and Internet parties to all agree on something in order to be able to make a decision and progress law changes.

    I don’t agree with you here. I think a whole pile of law changes would happen very quickly, each party enjoying their chance to advance 1 or more of their own agenda. I’d be less worried about them being moribund than I would about them being hasty.

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  20. Dennis Horne (2,403 comments) says:

    I would like to have seen Christine Rankin stand in Pakuranga, with a cuppa handy.

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  21. nasska (11,525 comments) says:

    Those who kneel at Colin Craig’s feet, grabbing at his cuffs & pleading him to lead them back to the fifties don’t seem to think about how Conservative policies will survive Parliament.

    They are far too occupied planning on living their dream of social conservatism, religion & legalised child beating.

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  22. David Garrett (7,289 comments) says:

    Nasska: I’m astounded…really… I didn’t think you would be one of those who considers a smack on the leg to be “child beating”..

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  23. Griff (7,727 comments) says:

    Peters and manaless
    :lol:
    :lol:
    Peters and the watermelons
    :lol:
    :lol:
    Colon and manaless
    :lol:
    :lol:
    sergeant Schultz Colons crazy’s and Peters
    :lol:
    :lol:
    Any collection of such perverse views will not fly and any one with a IQ greater than their shoe size knows it.
    National ACT Dunne and the Maori is the only potential coalition that will be in contention.

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  24. Sublime (295 comments) says:

    DPF: Think about that.

    Part of me just doesn’t want to. Although, the other half wants to dash to the local mall, grab a pack of ACT II popcorn from Countdown, sit back and watch the fun. How long until we’d return to the polls? 18 months tops?

    Please Seymour, take us home.

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  25. nasska (11,525 comments) says:

    I don’t DG….what concerns me is the violence meted out to kids by largely religious PIs. (& a few low rent Maori & pakeha)

    There’s a difference between a smack on the arse to settle a tantrum & an eighteen stone POS belting a kid around the head & sending them halfway up a supermarket aisle. Beating a kid with a jug cord or a vacuum cleaner hose isn’t needed either.

    If the legislation has to be changed then what replaces it must set well defined boundaries…..as it stood, up until the repeal of S59, it was state sanctioned brutality.

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  26. Dennis Horne (2,403 comments) says:

    Smacking a wilfully disobedient child making a fool of you is illegal and sodomy is marriage.

    Time to get back up into the trees and start again.

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  27. Richard (82 comments) says:

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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  28. Nostalgia-NZ (5,211 comments) says:

    With Collins, McCully and the PM’s ‘office’ under inquiry at this time reinforces that if the NP can form a Government after the election they’ll continue to be dogged by controversy. It’s a royal f up, one view is that they should consider tightening down the hatches, chuck out the rot and begin re-building for 2017 – they won’t most likely. Some of the ‘brands’ inside the NP are exposed, but they will hold on bitterly, embracing the idea that they have done nothing more than what Labour has done or would do. But it isn’t Labour under the microscope, or the Greens or NZF, they have a free ‘ticket’ on this, they do less and gain more. So if Peters says now he won’t go into a coalition with any party who won’t support a RC into Collins, what might he say as, and if, his vote builds. He’ll look for Key, he’s looking for him now. And JK has gifted him a ‘wine box’ clear in the present.

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  29. Tinshed (170 comments) says:

    Richard – oh please. We here don’t need our politics drawn with crayon colours that fit on the back of a postage stamp. If you are going to troll, please do so with a tad more intelligence. Otherwise, please post on The Standard.

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  30. polemic (460 comments) says:

    It is not as stupid as everyone is suggesting what National needs to do is hold out an olive branch to the Conservatives now otherwise when they get over the line then it is a bit harder to negotiate with them.

    The fact is a lot of older folk actually can relate to a lot of the policies that the Conservatives are promoting.

    As I have said a vote for the Conservatives will do something for you and the Country as a vote for Winston will do nothing for you and nothing for the Country but it will do something for Winnie himself it will continue to feed his lies and innuendo and anyway why hasn’t he paid back the $58k or whatever it is that he still hasn’t paid.

    A vote for the Conservatives = a vote for stable safe Govt

    A vote for Winston first is a waste :twisted:

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  31. Griff (7,727 comments) says:

    Richard
    The standard Or the daily blog
    Google them
    and go
    while you are there consider who is blogging under pseudonyms, read their posts bagging key or national and find out the rules.
    then compare to here.

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  32. Rich Prick (1,705 comments) says:

    Labour and Harawira, Sykes, Minto, Harre, and the lesser deranged from the Greens really? Vote NO to that lot. Seriously. An election is not a joke.

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  33. burt (8,272 comments) says:

    Tax accountants, real estate agents, bankers and lawyers would love such a coalition. Pity about the hard working individuals getting taxed to pay for it all. The ones each party claims to represent.

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  34. PaulL (5,981 comments) says:

    @polemic: conservatives and NZ first are much of a muchness to me. Neither are reliable nor clear on where they stand. I can vote for a party that is left (Labour, Green, Mana) and I get David Cunliffe as PM. I can vote for a party that is right (National, ACT, Dunne), and I get John Key as PM. In those circumstances I’m making up my own mind.

    Or, I can vote for Winston or Colin to decide after the election who they want to have as PM. Why would I outsource my thinking to one of those muppets?

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  35. Lindsay Addie (1,515 comments) says:

    I don’t get nearly as worked up about opinion polls as many do. That said there are some interesting clear trends:

    1. National isn’t taking the huge hit that the left might have hoped for. So it is safe to assume the voters aren’t all that interested in the mud slinging side of the campaign.
    2. Labour’s campaign is suffering from massive wheel spin. DC is all revved up and makes a lot of noise like a dragster that cannot get off the start line. The CGT flub in the Press debate was a real clanger.
    3. The Green’s campaign is doing not so bad. I don’t like their policies much but its been a good solid campaign.
    4. Winston Peters is an annoying bugger but he knows how to hoover up the votes that he needs come election time.
    5. Colin Craig’s party is making a decent go of things but I haven’t made my mind up about them yet. Sometimes Craig sounds not so bad other times he makes me doubtful.

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  36. georgebolwing (854 comments) says:

    So, after weeks of shit from the left, the current government and its support parties are likely to be returned to government with the same effective majority that it has now?

    Nicky Hagar’s big mistake was to try and paint only the National party as corrupt. If he had written a book that said that all political parties play dirty, then that might have been credible. But to so selectively use the material he had so just too blantly partisan.

    Together with the reaction to Dot Com’s antics, I suspect that a sufficient number of urban, liberal voters will vote National in protest at the left’s attempt to steel the election away from the people.

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  37. Ross12 (1,428 comments) says:

    Nostalgia-NZ

    I don’t agree. Most, if not all these so called ‘controversies” are just beat ups and will shown to that with these inquiries.

    I’m not sure it will show in any inquiry but I think the Collins smear campaign goes back to her time as ACC Minister when she stopped the scam the unions had to get ACC funding ( for training programs I think ) but the funds or at least some it went into Labours coffers.

    The McCully one will not through any scandle.

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  38. Lindsay Addie (1,515 comments) says:

    Georgebolwing,

    I agree. The Morgan and Reid polls seem to bear out what National have been whispering about their own internal polling regarding Dirty Politics not affecting the polls. Dirty Politics is more interesting to beltway fanatics like Matthew Hooten than it is to the average Joe who cares about his family, job and quality of life.

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  39. OneTrack (3,107 comments) says:

    The alternative to a economically incompetent and reckless Labour-Green-Internet-Mana-Winston-Maori coalition is the successful and stable centre-left government that has kept the country’s head just above water for the last six years, weathering the ongoing GFC and the impact of the Christchurch earthquakes, with current low unemployment and public accounts almost back into the black. Without the excessive social engineering of the previous Labour government, acolytes of which are again waiting in the wings to have another go at telling the prols what is good for them.

    Your choice.

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  40. itstricky (1,832 comments) says:

    Richard
    The standard Or the daily blog Google them and go while you are there consider who is blogging under pseudonyms, read their posts bagging key or national and find out the rules. then compare to here.

    I presume there are opposition members blogging under nom de plume. As long as they’re not The Government and they’re not the Minister of Justice organising back door deals for individuals, rorts on behalf of friends, or orchestrated smear campaigns then who cares?

    Quote of the week:

    Journalist: Will you be paying back double?
    Slater: I always pay back double
    Journalist: Will Judith be paying back double?
    Slater: Judith always pays back double
    Journalist: Do you think that’s very becoming of a public servant?

    She ain’t coming back. And JK has started the process of lifting the dump track full of Slater muck over the cliff too.

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  41. Nostalgia-NZ (5,211 comments) says:

    If key goes, say English takes the helm – the slipping vote holds most likely because the middle has belonged to the NP for a long time – that’s the way they want to vote going by recent history. The legacy that looks to be destined for key is gone before the election and the NP possibly hangs on. Remember that a ‘splintering’ vote doesn’t aid national, it aids all the parties in opposition to them, and of course their likely allies. When considering the other option of NP forming a Government with the ‘crisis’ still fermenting explain how that will go away, including that which is yet to be revealed. Some brawl heating up.

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  42. Southern Raider (1,830 comments) says:

    And Internet Mana is trying to motivate everyone to vote now for them before the truth comes out.

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  43. YesWeDid (1,048 comments) says:

    If National drop any further in the polls than Key is going to need NZ First to form a government.

    Key recently called Winston a ‘nutty liar’, yet Winston could be our deputy PM in around 4 weeks time.

    Think about that.

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  44. OneTrack (3,107 comments) says:

    “A vote for Winston first is a waste ”

    A vote for Winston first is a vote for Green(Delahunty), Labour(Cosgrove) Internet(DotCom), Mana(Minto). fify

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  45. Tinshed (170 comments) says:

    One data point. Amongst one of my family member’s circle (educated, liberal, Wellington) many of a similar mind set are considering not voting at all this election. National isn’t an option, of course. That is their parent’s choice and who in their twenties wishes to vote like Mum and Dad? Labour is irrelevant to their generation, Internet/Mana are clearly destructive (even to political youth) and the Greens – for many their natural home – have a leadership that is regarded as overly egotistical, especially Russel Norman. Surprising I know. So where do they go? I would have thought the Maori Party would appeal to their liberal instincts and their acceptance of the new New Zealand (multi-cultural society/bicultural nation), but no, that is not seen as an option. So not voting is the most likely option. As I say, one data point, and not one shared by the farmer’s daughter in Gore or the unemployed son of a beneficiary in Dargaville.

    [edited for clarity]

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  46. itstricky (1,832 comments) says:

    Smacking a wilfully disobedient child making a fool of you is illegal

    Well, yes, a small person “making a fool out of you” is no reason for physical violence. A 8 year old holds you up outside a liquor store with an Uzi then shoots you in the foot before busting off with your wallet… perhaps…but because you’ve been, rather subjectively, “made a fool of”?

    I’d consider using words, rather than fists when you’ve been a “little embarassed” by a situation as a distinct getting-down-out-of-the-tree-and-move-towards-enlightenment moment. Maybe that’s just my warped logic.

    Thanks for proving nasska right.

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  47. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    Is it me or Paddy Communist Gower lives in a completely different planet? National goes up despite 3 weeks of relentless dirty politics saga, Labour keeps on going down, Key with his CURRENT partners – UF, ACT and Maori party can comfortably form a government and still Paddy thinks National is in trouble….if you call this trouble, then what do you call Labour’s position?

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  48. geoff3012 (75 comments) says:

    Greens to go with National…….

    Co-alition has been agreed!

    Russell………..Minister of Flags
    Metureiererer (2nd in charge) ….Minister of Morning Tea, Lunch and dinner.
    Gareth Hughes………Minister in charge of counting fish and grains of sand on all beaches north of Stewart Island
    Cathy baby (delanutty)……

    One whisky more than i should i think…….

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  49. OneTrack (3,107 comments) says:

    “Key recently called Winston a ‘nutty liar’, yet Winston could be our deputy PM in around 4 weeks time.

    Think about that. ”

    I have. With what Peters has been calling Key and Collins lately, the likelihood of Peters actually going with National seems slight at best. In addition to that, Cunliffe will offer a better bribe to Peters and Key simply doesn’t need the agro.

    So, when you have voted Winston, and petrol hits $5 due to the Green’s Carbon Tax and the collapse of the exchange rate after investors pull their money out of the country, and the new constitution is taken word for word from the Maori version of the treay, at least you’ll know that MPs won’t be talking to bloggers. Well not right wing bloggers anyway.

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  50. itstricky (1,832 comments) says:

    Those who kneel at Colin Craig’s feet…are far too occupied planning on living their dream of social conservatism, religion & legalised child beating.

    We sit outside and argue all night long about a God we’ve never seen but never fails to side with me.

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  51. dishy (248 comments) says:

    Sir Sullen Cullen….no, it’s not you.

    The graphic says NZF is down. Gower says Winston is ‘up’ and over the 5% threshold yet again.
    The graphic says the Conservatives are down. Gower says they are tracking ‘up’.
    The graphic says ACT is up. Gower says they tracking ‘back’.

    Gower is a disgrace. TV3, get somebody else to present your polls. Somebody who leaves his or her bias in the make up room. Somebody who has a sense of direction.

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  52. Zapper (1,021 comments) says:

    My Mum who’s a rusted on Labour voter isn’t bothering to vote this election because she doesn’t trust Cunliffe, and plans to sell her house in a few years. I’d prefer she voted National, but I’ll take it

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  53. All_on_Red (1,583 comments) says:

    Dennis Horne (2,243 comments) says:
    September 3rd, 2014 at 9:23 pm
    Smacking a wilfully disobedient child making a fool of you is illegal

    Good job too. Its easier to remove their iPad time. Probably saves on legal fees as well. You taking anything for that senility Dennis?

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  54. Richard (859 comments) says:

    ”Think about that”

    I’d rather not. What if we have another civil emergency the size of Canterbury quakes and Labour, Greens, NZ First, Mana, Maori and Internet parties are in office? Imagine trying to get a coordinated response from that lot.

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  55. violentrage (37 comments) says:

    Dennis Horne (2,243 comments) says:

    “It takes dozens of muscles to laugh heartily but only one to pull the trigger of a decent sniper rifle…”

    not true, actually

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  56. edhunter (547 comments) says:

    Richard have you talked to DPF about your doppelganger, one minute a voice of reason the next a troll bloody confusing especially after a couple of scotches

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  57. Lance (2,655 comments) says:

    The lefties have started shrieking hysterically here.
    Dark mutterings and every negative word they can muster to spit at National

    Kinda funny really.

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  58. Mark (1,488 comments) says:

    cunliffe announcing the reintroduction of inheritance tax yesterday could further improve nationals polling over the next week or so.

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  59. Inthisdress (270 comments) says:

    It’s as if Cunliffe is playing a game called ‘How badly can I lose and still smile’.

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  60. Inthisdress (270 comments) says:

    In February 2008, as the Minister of Health, Cunliffe dismissed the Hawke’s Bay District Health Board over political, monetary and conflict of interest troubles. Napier Mayor Barbara Arnott and a number of members of the district voiced opposition to Cunliffe’s move as many of the board members were democratically elected. Following the release of a Health Ministry-commissioned independent report into the matter, Cunliffe referred to the board as “nasty little nest of self-perpetuating provincial elites”. (wikipedia)

    So I don;t see much room for a consensus kind of arrangement from that end of town.

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  61. IGM (394 comments) says:

    Labour must win . . . they have total support of APN, Fairfax, Newstalkzb, and that creep Campbell from Mediaworks is getting to the point where one feels like waiting for him and giving him the super bash! The fawning over these left-wing leeches is sickening, and if they are elected, there will be mayhem when employers pull the pin and wind down, making the envious unionists redundant, and the tax take vanish, as with our credit ratings.

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  62. IGM (394 comments) says:

    I would vote for anyone who has the balls to ban that ridiculous haka that is performed at every opportunity. Invariably it leads to an inept performance, as with the behaviour of those that support it.

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  63. James Stephenson (2,180 comments) says:

    Craig should make revoking Kim Dotcom’s residency a bottom line, over 5% easy.

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  64. Inthisdress (270 comments) says:

    “First off, new Minister of Health David Cunliffe doesn’t want to be Prime Minister. “No. it’s a bastard of a job and I have a young family. I don’t think the two would go together. … He’s also clever, yet often manages to hit a grandiose or pompous note.

    It happened just days after assuming the health portfolio. Under question from Opposition health spokesman Tony Ryall, Cunliffe, 44, leaned on his desk and drawled: “Mr Ryall, why don’t you stay in your box. I’m running this show.”

    It inspired New Zealand Herald political columnist John Armstrong to lampoon Cunliffe as a “slow-talking, quick-shooting gunslinger”, missing only the “cowboy boots, a 10-gallon hat and the sheriff’s badge”. He was, wrote Armstrong, like “some latter-day Clint Eastwood-type character”, but without the “required degree of silent menace to make him really threatening”.

    Cunliffe gained that sense of menace when, after three months in the job, he fired the entire Hawke’s Bay District Health Board and was, indeed, “running this show”.

    The comment, he accepts, could have been better phrased.”

    and again: Following the release of a Health Ministry-commissioned independent report into the matter, Cunliffe referred to the board as “nasty little nest of self-perpetuating provincial elites”.

    which version of Cunliffe do you think is the real one, and how would you engage in a coalition with him?
    http://www.listener.co.nz/current-affairs/politics/action/

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  65. iMP (2,385 comments) says:

    David, that is very interesting. If Lab. was dependent on all six parties, what happens if Internet breaks off from Mana or falls apart post-election?

    One would presume Cunliffe would only negotiate a formal arrangement with Mana, but on the ballot they are Internet/Mana, so surely the Opposition could revisit the Guv General and ask for a dissolution? Any agreement would be voided?

    OR Her Maj’s Loyal Opp just votes the mongel govt down.

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  66. Berend de Boer (1,709 comments) says:

    DP: That means a Labour-led Government would need to get Labour, Greens, NZ First, Mana, Maori and Internet parties to all agree on something in order to be able to make a decision and progress law changes.

    That sounds great. Nothing would happen for three years. Sort of like National being in power. Now I’m really tempted to vote.

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  67. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    If Greens, Labour, NZF and Maori can form a government, Winston will probably go with them. He made it pretty clear in last night’s debate that he has the same basic policy platform as Labour. Flavell basically said he’d be willing to work with Labour (which would probably save the Maori Party in the long run).

    This means that National need more than they got last time, or they need Colin Craig to get over 5%. I’ve said before that National was stupid to eat all its coalition partners.

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  68. Unity (584 comments) says:

    The Labour mix sounds too terrible to even contemplate. However, I firmly believe National should have other parties in coalition to keep them honest because they aren’t ideal either. I’m hopeful that both NZ First and the Conservatives will get enough to go into coalition with National and then we just might get our democracy back which we only have once every 3 years when we vote. We need a Government who will listen to the people and do the bidding of the majority. We put them in there so it is imperative they listen.

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  69. ste3e (118 comments) says:

    Best option would be Labour Greens running a minority coalition with Peters on the cross benches vetoing policies he wouldn’t countenance.

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