The Wairarapa seat

September 4th, 2014 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

The NZ Herald reports:

The emergence of former MP Ron Mark as a candidate for New Zealand First has potentially thrown the race for the seat wide open, where the two other frontrunners are first-time candidates.

I love how the media talk up a seat as being wide open, when it has a 7,000+ majority.

Ron is a strong candidate for NZ First, and is a local Mayor. But Carterton is a small part of the electorate. Ron got elected Mayor in 2010 with around 2,000 votes. By comparison John Hayes in 2011 got almost 18,000 votes.

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19 Responses to “The Wairarapa seat”

  1. Jack5 (5,005 comments) says:

    This news will piss off one Mr R. Widerstrom. Stand by for incoming!

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  2. tvb (4,311 comments) says:

    This garbage story is trying to write up Ron Mark. NZF in their list ranking do not think much of him and he is peeved about that. Outside Carterton Mark is not that well known. He should have sought the National nomination and might have got it.

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  3. RRM (9,762 comments) says:

    Ron is a strong candidate for NZ First, and is a local Mayor. But Carterton is a small part of the electorate. Ron got elected Mayor in 2010 with around 2,000 votes. By comparison John Hayes in 2011 got almost 18,000 votes.

    I don’t think John Hayes should assume anything.

    Sure, the biggest town in the Wairarapa is Masterton, but don’t forget that’s a horrible place, where a big proportion of the population have names like Dave RB Skidda Gomerfield and are unlikely to be voting.

    Yes, Carterton is only one town in the Wairarapa. But it’s [arguably] the best town in the Wairarapa, and I’d expect their voter turnout to be pretty good. Carterton people sing Ron Mark’s praises, and those of us in the neighbouring villages notice that.

    So unlike some people in other electorates, suddenly we have the option of voting for a guy who is a total local legend, and proper bloke, who we know a lot of our neighbours will also support, and that gives us the perceived chance to be on ‘the right side of history’ instead of throwing our votes away on Mr or Mrs Second Place.

    How many popular, liked politicians, can you think of? :-)

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  4. dime (9,788 comments) says:

    Ron Mark hates Air NZ because they make money. He wants to do something about that. Idiot.

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  5. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,871 comments) says:

    Well what do you expect form the propaganda organ of the Labour Party?

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  6. Brian Smaller (4,036 comments) says:

    @RRM – John Hayes has retired. Alistair Scott is the Nat candidate.

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  7. JMS (317 comments) says:

    A nasty little man for a nasty little party.

    Good fit.

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  8. rangitoto (237 comments) says:

    If Mark were to win this electorate seat his first move should be to attempt to oust winny as party leader.

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  9. RRM (9,762 comments) says:

    Brian Smaller – well there you are! :-D

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  10. Nigel Kearney (960 comments) says:

    Ron Mark was also going to win Rimutaka in 2008 but somehow ended up third, 7500 votes behind second.

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  11. lastmanstanding (1,263 comments) says:

    I suspect Ron is being groomed to take over from Winston as leader some time during the next 3 years. Winston has just turned 70 and so will be 73 at the 2017 election. NZF needs a successor and none of the current MPs look even remotely like being able to fill Winstons shoes.

    So Ron is the best they can hope for. the big question will be without Winston leading them into the 2017 election will they be able to get to the 5%.

    Even Winston cant hold their vote between polls. Now he would say so what and to some extent he is right but you gotta hand it to him almost every election NZF go from 2/3 at most to over 5 in the couple of months before polling day.

    I suspect Ron will struggle to get NZF back in 2017.

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  12. SlightlyLeft (4 comments) says:

    Interesting to note that Georgina Beyer got elected after being mayor of Carterton. Ron Mark was also bought up in Pahiatua so there may be some name recognition in that area of the electorate. So a small chance but pretty unlikely.

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  13. Terry J (31 comments) says:

    I live in Carterton Council District where Mr Marks is the Mayor and have just left the barber’s where there was a discussion and it would not be unreasonable to suggest that it has a long time since “Ron Mark” and “is a great mayor” or “is a good bloke” have been used in the same sentence.
    Has anyone found the $158,000 that NZ First team should have refunded to the taxpayer after the Auditor-General found it had been wrongfully spent in the 2007 election by NZ First of which Mr Marks was a parliamentary team member at the time of this massive taxpayer fraud.

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  14. tvb (4,311 comments) says:

    Winston does not see Mark as his possible successor otherwise he would have made him no 3. Instead he is well down and might get in or not. NZF polling is just above 5% and they usually poll less in the election. I think it will be a close run thing.

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  15. Scott (1,760 comments) says:

    I like Ron Mark and am considering voting for him as my local MP. I can’t get a handle on how good he has been as a mayor of Carterton? I would have thought he has a good reputation but as soon as I say that some grumpy person from Carterton rises up to the contrary! Now I don’t know whether that is the legendary grumpiness of Carterton people or whether there is substance to their complaints? Certainly Carterton seems to be on the up and up with the events Centre and art exhibitions and generally a bit more buzz about the place. However that could be due to the current mayor or could be the legacy of the previous incumbent.

    But I will be interested in how the election goes. Ron Mark is a credible candidate with a name in the Wairarapa. Alistair Scott is a bit of an unknown and Kieran McNulty is a bright young man but who insisted at a “meet the candidates” meeting, of the local churches no less, of doubling down on his support for gay marriage with great vehemence and at great length. So whether he has the political nous to win the seat is very much an open question?

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  16. IGM (213 comments) says:

    What happened to the $160,000. Did it disappear like the selection of candidates ballot papers in the first MMP election? Come on NZ First Winnie has a lot to answer for, even Owen Glenn.

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  17. Shazzadude (525 comments) says:

    “Winston does not see Mark as his possible successor otherwise he would have made him no 3. Instead he is well down and might get in or not. NZF polling is just above 5% and they usually poll less in the election. I think it will be a close run thing.”

    1) I think Ron would be 3 if it was only in Winston’s hands
    2) New Zealand First actually usually poll more than in the election, as 2008 and 2011 proved.

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  18. Shazzadude (525 comments) says:

    “I love how the media talk up a seat as being wide open, when it has a 7,000+ majority.

    Ron is a strong candidate for NZ First, and is a local Mayor. But Carterton is a small part of the electorate. Ron got elected Mayor in 2010 with around 2,000 votes. By comparison John Hayes in 2011 got almost 18,000 votes.”

    Ron Mark grew up throughout the electorate, and is well known throughout. In two other electorates, Waimakariri and Rimutaka, electorates he didn’t grow up in he managed 5000 plus votes. In an electorate where he’s a mayor and has a long history there, that 5000 could quite easily double. 10,000 could be enough for victory in a three way tie.

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  19. Johnboy (15,891 comments) says:

    Ron’s not bright enough to assume Winston’s mantle. Not when he’s up against real brains like Tracey, Barbara and Arsenati! :)

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