About
Contact
Advertise

Facebook
Twitter

September 17, 2014 6:48pm by David Farrar

Two more polls

Two more polls out today, on Curiablog.

The weighted average is above, of the last five polls. The CR has 62, CL 50 and centre parties 11.

Share this:

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
WhatsApp
More

Pinterest
Print
Tumblr

Like this:

Like Loading...

Email
Facebook
Twitter
Comment88

NZ Politics
Polls

Related Stories

538’s 13 tips for reading polls
Clinton’s lead bigger with live polls
How the pollsters did provisionally

Comments (88)

Login to comment or vote

dad4justice

Splendid the Conservatives at 4% .
8 4
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 6:53pm
Pete George

Poll of polls are less indicative of late moves in support leading up to an election. Support looks volatile. The outcome for a number of parties remains uncertain.

One of the few consistencies between the two polls was Labour going down. National was up on Roy Morgan, down on 3 News/RR.
11 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 6:59pm
OneTrack

Oh hell, the conservatives are only on 4%.

Not enough time for them to now get up over 5%, so those potential right-wing votes might be lost.
9 8
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:02pm
adze

Disappointing result for National on the Reid Research poll. Conservatives very close to the line in one poll but not the other.
Saturday will be interesting to say the least.
7 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:05pm
Viking2

Judging by the number of people I see going to the local polling both it matters not a lot. Steady stream into the building for the last two weeks.
Going to be interesting to see the numbers voting.
8 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:06pm
David Garrett

One Track: I find myself with conflicted loyalties and intentions…While I would love to see ACT back it is looking increasingly unlikely…the Cons on 4% may well cause some Nat-ACT voters to switch to them don’t you think?..Ideally of course we would have both, but that seems like a pipe dream…
23 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:06pm
Sublime

OneTrack: Oh hell, the conservatives are only on 4%.

Nah, they’ll get in. Their direction has been a steady but slow ascension. Sit tight 🙂
11 4
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:07pm
adze

Hosking hopeless in the Leader’s Debate again. I think he’s let Cunliffe dominate about 80% of airtime so far.
16 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:07pm
Sublime

David Garrett: ..Ideally of course we would have both, but that seems like a pipe dream…

I’d like to think it’s not in the “pipe dream” category, but I admit it’s by no means ‘done and dusted’. I too would dearly like to see the Conservatives and ACT support National in government.
8 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:09pm
ross411

adze (2,053 comments) says:
September 17th, 2014 at 7:07 pm
Hosking hopeless in the Leader’s Debate again. I think he’s let Cunliffe dominate about 80% of airtime so far.

Yes, not sure Cunliffe would last a term. He looks red and squinty. A heart attack might be in the wings.
7 3
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:16pm
ross411

When Key isn’t blurting things out, and is saying things slowly and clearly, he’s a lot more compelling.
12 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:18pm
UrbanNeocolonialist

Those thinking the conservatives will get in are dreaming. They have not been over 5% in a single poll over last few months in 2.5-4.9 range suggests they are maybe 4%/.

That won’t get better now as people realise that they could be wasting their vote on a sub 5% party. Polling answers cost nothing. Votes matter. expect big down turn on day.

So don’t waste your vote on Cons. Act or National for sane govt.
11 5
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:20pm
jgw739

John Key on the possibility of leading National for 3 more years and then contesting 2017:

‘I’m 53, I’m pretty young’

Awesome.
20 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:29pm
deadrightkev

Jamie is talking up Act chances saying they will get 3-4 seats from 0.6%.

Sadly, because of his lack of political experience of previous elections I don’t think he realises how toxic Act is in the eyes of the voter. I don’t think it is a given that Seymour will make it.
11 10
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:29pm
Sublime

Not a given, deadrightkev, but I reckon he will.

The word round here is that he’s polling strongly over in Epsom and the voters know what they need to get done. It doesn’t look as certain as it once did in past elections though.
10 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:31pm
davidp

Conservatives on 4%… and Conservative voters give us a Labour-Green-Mana-NZ First-Internet government. I hope they know what they’re doing.
9 5
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:40pm
EAD

There it goes again – that word “time-weighted”. Ignore all momentum as the Conservatives drive well over 5% as people are suddenly realising they don’t want the next 3 years to be a continuation of the last 15.

On what I understand the historic meaning of “right-wing” to be the above various “factions” above are wrong. The right has 1 seat, the left has 122.
6 9
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:42pm
Harriet

The Conservatives wouldn’t go with the left. They’d probably never get another National voter to support them in 2017. It would be terminal.
16 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:46pm
Jafa

I live in the Epsom electorate and have already voted. Everyone I know who has already voted has voted for Seymour in this electorate and almost everyone has cast a party vote for National (1 dissenter for the Conservatives). I spoke to a number of customers yesterday and all were agreed on the need to get KDC on a plane to Virginia. I think the ‘big fail’ by IMP/KDC will hurt them badly as KDC is now a hated figure. However it will be a tense night on Saturday that is for sure. To my mind we have not had an election but a four week long smear campaign by the left that has turned off so many people. The ultimate irony is how sanctimonious the left are, but all of those who are involved in the continual smears are either convicted criminals or wanted to face charges on criminal activity. But as so many have commented, it is okay when the left do it.
33 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:47pm
waikatogirl

Cunliffe was his usual arrogant and self-important self, talking over and hogging the time. And it was the same old same old he keeps trotting out, including “there is no cost to business when the minimum wage is increased”. He is as dumb as a mud crab
31 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:51pm
nasska

If only those social regressives, whose selfish fantasy is to impose their Skydaddy crap on us all, would return to National & not waste their vote on Colin we could look forward in confidence for three more years of sane government.
20 11
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:56pm
deadrightkev

“Everyone I know who has already voted has voted for Seymour in this electorate and almost everyone has cast a party vote for National (1 dissenter for the Conservatives).”

Is that a 2 or 3 people scientific sample?

“The Conservatives wouldn’t go with the left.”

You got that right.
7 4
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:58pm
johnfromkyle

Party standings:

Labour: 25.6 percent (down 0.5)
National: 44.5 percent (down 2.2 percent)
NZ First: 7.1 percent (up 1.2 percent)
Greens: 14.4 percent (up 1.4 percent)
ACT: 0.1 percent (down 0.2 percent)
United Future: 0.1 percent (no change)
Maori Party: 1.1 percent (down .2 percent)
Internet Mana: 2 percent (down 0.3 percent)

Translated into seats:

Labour: 33
National: 56
NZ First: 9
Greens: 18
ACT: 1
United Future: 1
Maori Party: 3
Internet Mana: 3

Are they listed alphabetically or numerically ? Neither.

Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/politics/poll-winston-holds-balance-of-power-2014091717#ixzz3DYdWl0PJ
0 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:58pm
deadrightkev

Nasska

National has not been a sane government if you match their manifesto to their actions. They are schizophrenic frauds.

They have been a progressive government pretending to be conservative.
9 27
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:59pm
Pete George

Cunliffe will make a great leader. He will be able to firmly tell Russel, Metiria, Winston, Hone and Laila to be quiet when it’s his turn.
28 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 7:59pm
Dennis Horne

Too late. Blair and Brown already stuffed England: one lead re-colonisation by aliens, the other financial ruin.
0 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:04pm
Fletch

Fairfax Media understands that, for the first time, internal National Party polling has placed the Conservative Party on 6 per cent support – breaking the 5 per cent threshold to guarantee a place in Parliament. Sources say the figure is equal to Winston Peters’ NZ First, who has been polling as high as 8 per cent in some polls. The news will likely be welcome for National, which would gain another potential support partner and allay fears of a significant portion of wasted votes should the Conservatives not make it in.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/10501658/Campaign-Diary-September-16
14 3
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:06pm
Harriet

National is not a ‘sane’ government Nasska – they are a ‘same’ government. Go on…..tell us what they no longer do that Labour did? Oh….3S…..that’s ACT.

It’s nothing more than the status quo – huge public service – involving itself in parental discipline, personal eating habits, ‘feelings’, educating 92% of all children………socialism and marxism is fucken endless under National.

Get off your knees from bowing to your National/Labour God Nasska – and party vote the Conservatives for your grandkids.

You do want to leave your grandkids ‘family’ don’t you —- or is it ‘reliance on State and govt worker’ that is your inheritance to them?

You’ll man up on the day Nasska. Prayers for your grandkids have been said often. 😎
6 8
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:11pm
nasska

I manned up yesterday Harriet……two ticks National! 🙂
17 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:14pm
flipper

Some points from tonight:

Jafa – I spent a week in Auckland at the beginning of the month staying in Parnell Rd. Totally agree with U.

Hosking tonight – Absolute, bloody disaster. I believe Key should have said “shut up, let me have my say”. Cunliffe was an arrogant prick.

The GCSB is/was a load of crap. The “debate” (aka verbal brawl) crunch was the closing. Cunliffe was bullshit. Key was excellent., and nailed it totally

TV3 and Reid alone is NOT the election predictor. With at least two more polls to come, look at the average.

My prediction (J Key better not come after me for stealing his line) – same as in 2011……. BUT …. the Conservs may just get up. For that we will have TV3 and Hosking’s ineptitude to thank, and bye bye Cunners.

But…. my family and friends all tuned out a week ago. Almost all have already voted – two ticks National.

Saturday? Bring it on. 🙂
21 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:15pm
lastmanstanding

Predictions are could be half a mill pre election voters. These votes will be counted Saturday afternoon and go into the results at 7pm. So depends on whether pre voters match voters on the day as regards parties as to the early results. Suggest no ones gets too excited as this is the first time for pre vote on line voting.

Also if its tight on the night could all depend on specials especially if they are in close run electorates for the constituent vote.

Reckon it will either be a cake walk for Nats plus Act/UF/ Maori and we will have an early result or it will be close and WP will get to call the shots.

Reckon he will go with Labour not Nats and Cunliffe will give him DPM and MinFA if he wants it. WP last election so he will want to go out on a high.

Reckon JK will sacrifice win if it means WP wants to call the shots and hope it all goes to custard with Greens fighting with WP and ends in tears.
11 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:15pm
UrbanNeocolonialist

The only contribution of the Conservative party to the next government will be in possibly handing that parasite Winston the balance of power. They won’t reach 5% but they might waste enough right wing votes to allow an abomination of a left wing + Peters coalition to form.

In my whole life there have been many politicians I have disliked greatly, even if they probably felt they were doing good. Peter’s is the only one to date who I would wish dead. He has been entirely negative for this country, totally self-serving, destabilising, and has achieved nothing of worth while costing the country $10’s-100’s of millions stroking his Napoleon complex.

If the left get in I will not be living in NZ in 6 months (no joke).
15 5
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:17pm
Harriet

“…..I manned up yesterday Harriet……two ticks National!….”

My grandad was a feminised bitch back in those times……..couldn’t even pick up a pen to fight with. Sat down to piss too. 😎
4 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:21pm
nasska

deadrightkev

National has never in my lifetime (65 years) ever been a party that claimed to represent Conservowhacks & Godfreaks.

In fact from our leader’s mouth:

….”I’m not deeply ideologically driven. I believe in good center-right politics.
John Key”…..

Ref: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/j/john_key.html#5gF2fcERCYKExutF.99
7 7
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:22pm
goldnkiwi

I think that a form of photo ID should be required when voting, not just an easy vote card that could belong to anyone.

When I voted I was personally known to the scrutineer? he insisted that by law I had to tell him my name, but in some centres I could have said I was anyone.
4 3
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:23pm
Johnboy

Still I’m looking forward to free rides on the buses (between 9 and 3 ) in another few months UrbanNeocolonialist! 🙂
6 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:24pm
Johnboy

Haven’t caught a bus for around 45 years. Will be almost a new experience for me!

Still I fought and died in the war to get free rides on buses eh! 🙂
10 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:26pm
EAD

nasska,

you don’t believe in “god-whackers” and “sky fairies” yet your rational mind makes you believe John Key believes in “good center-right politics”?

Enjoy your slow boat ride to Communism hell – at least the Communists freely admit they don’t believe in “god-whackers”. All they want you to believe in is the State is your friend.

But by all means keep being a sheep and following “our leader” as you call him. North Korea has “dear leader” so we’re not too far away…
8 8
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:27pm
nasska

….” All you have to believe in is the state is your friend.”…..

A lukewarm friend who you don’t trust alone with the silverware maybe EAD. What I do like is well supervised, secular rule coupled with good management.

National ticks the boxes.
5 7
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:31pm
lastmanstanding

UrbanNeocolonialist Don’t panic. Despite what I said above I believe the Left will be punished for the DotCom fiasco including Labour as marginal voters have been pissed off by KDC attempts to hijack OUR elections by bringing a rag tag bunch of foreigners here to tell us…………………………. BS.

They will contrast their own personal situation and ask Do we really want to risk it all on a coalition from Hell I mean Cunliffe on 24/25% Greens on 14/15% WP on 8/9 % none of them holding a clear and decisive majority as Nats have for the past 6 years.

They will worry that the 3 of them will spend most of their time arguing over whose policy gets enacted rather than running the country. Cause that’s what Kiwis vote for IMHO a Government that runs the country and delivers for the voters NOT themselves.

Maybe Im wrong but the past 2 elections I reckon that’s what most people have wanted and what they have voted for. Strong decisive leadership and JK et al have delivered it in spades.
8 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:32pm
Griff

The importation of the usa’s culture wars is a sad indication of some peoples gullible natures and their detachment from the reality of living in a modern liberal country.
6 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:35pm
Johnboy

Is it my imagination or is poor Cunner’s chin becoming even less pronounced now than it was a few polls ago? 🙂
5 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:36pm
Harriet

“…..He has been entirely negative for this country, totally self-serving, destabilising, and has achieved nothing of worth while costing the country $10’s-100’s of millions stroking his Napoleon complex…..”

National has never said that. And that’s the problem – they always give the left a chance to gain government. They have always been soft on criticism.

Most of NZ First voters would have looked at the Conservatives – because they are not National – and Winston hasn’t been delivering for them. National should have instead disparraged Winston and delivered themselves and the Conservatives more votes from NZ First.
Some Labour voters would have seen the NZ First polls shrink and the Conservatives rise – and then also looked at the conservatives – because they are not National – Catholics for example.

National is stupid in thinking that NZ First would be more stable than the Conservatives – or giving the impression to the public that they would be – as anyone thinking of leaving Labour would not be leaving for instability – and everyone knows Winston is trouble.
7 4
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:36pm
Other_Andy

If…and I don’t think it will happen, Labour, the ~~Marxists~~ ‘Greens’ and Winston First make up a government it will last less than a year.
Imagine those three narcissists (Cunliffe, Russel and Peters) trying to work together.
Nope, no way.
6 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:42pm
Steve Wrathall

David Garrett: Think ACT won’t do better than the polls? Remember, just days before you got in as the 5th, polls were showing us getting only 2.
8 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:43pm
Harriet

Nasska: Brother No 2.

Don’t worry your not part of a flock of sheep as EAD suggests.

Rather you are what Redbaiter says:

part of the whitebait showl. 😎
4 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:44pm
nasska

Harriet

Have you, or any other social regressives you know, ever stopped to think that the people surveyed in these polls are actually giving their OWN opinions?

If so it should be obvious to you that more voting New Zealanders prefer secular conservatism as offered by Winston rather than the God-addled version courtesy of Colin Craig.
3 9
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:44pm
Griff

I dont think peters and the watermelons will get past the negotiation stage.
labor needs both to govern
6 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:45pm
Johnboy

“as anyone thinking of leaving Labour would not be leaving for instability ”

You obviously haven’t been checking out the unstable folk at “The Stranded” Harriet.

Some of them are talking civil war if National win on Saturday.

Lynette will ban them all soon once she finds her misplaced guillotine! 🙂
10 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:48pm
goldnkiwi

Plus Colin Craig would I believe, be happy to learn, especially in a first term, unlike Winston who already knows it all. The all encompassing binding referendum was the sticking point. Too late to qualify it now regarding economic impacts.
6 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:53pm
deadrightkev

“National has never in my lifetime (65 years) ever been a party that claimed to represent Conservowhacks & Godfreaks.”

Redbaiter is right, haha.
6 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:53pm
Scott

I’m voting conservative and I know many others are too. I predict conservatives will get into Parliament. After a short celebration and attending church on Sunday morning I plan to travel up to Eketahuna and God whack nasska!
11 5
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:55pm
NK

So don’t waste your vote on Cons. Act or National for sane govt.

Yep x 1,000,000.
10 3
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:56pm
Harriet

Nasska#

I don’t really think most kiwis would give that any ‘real’ thought as schools don’t teach history through a Christian prism anymore. Yet it is true that Christianity is an education in and of itself.

Most people where Christianity is concerned, go with the ‘religion is becoming irrelevent’ line trotted out by the media. And ‘catholic priests’ ‘aggresive Israel’ ect.

Feel free to offer another reason why Europe and the West became so advanced compared to all other nations. And why they are now all starting to decline at a rapid rate.

It’s because they now value everything the same ‘religion is Chritianity AND Islam’. In the past the West saw Christianity as the religion of peace – because they mostly lived in peace.
3 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:57pm
nasska

….”Redbaiter is right, haha.”…..

I’m sure Baity will be chuffed to read that. 🙂
5 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:58pm
Johnboy

If you stop in at Wainui on your way I’ll supply a lamb for you to sacrifice Scott before you whack that pesky Eke! 🙂
5 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 8:59pm
Johnboy

Make sure they both suffer. God will expect it. 🙂
2 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:01pm
nasska

….”Feel free to offer another reason why Europe and the West became so advanced compared to all other nations.”….

It goes back to the time when the Vatican took their eyes off the ball & the power of the Pope waned in Britain & the Continent.
Without the dead conservative hand of the church suppressing knowledge & development the ascension of the West was guaranteed.

The Middle East would flourish similarly if they could shake of their shackles that are the Islamic faith.
9 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:05pm
wat dabney

The statist big government vote is being split between the Greens and the Conservatives.
6 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:07pm
deadrightkev

“The all encompassing binding referendum was the sticking point. Too late to qualify it now regarding economic impacts.”

The dollars do not seem to matter to John Key on treaty settlements does it? National has no problem laundering billions of taxpayers money through through the Waitangi Tribunal. Since when did National worry about the financial impact paying out on SCF?
0 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:08pm
Johnboy

We have a lot to thank him for nasska! 🙂

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4OS17lqHiE
2 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:10pm
Johnboy

God he looks like a young Hipkins! 🙂
2 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:12pm
georgebolwing

The latest polls will not have picked up the backlash since Monday night’s clusterfuck.

Both the Herald and the DomPost paper editions today, for example, had no stories about Cunliffe at all and where talking about how Key had beaten Dotcom et al.

My predictions are:

Labour votes collapses. Some of this will go to National: urban liberals angry at what the left has done, but a lot will be just people who were intending to vote Labour just not bothering. the only bright spot will be that Kelvin Davis will win TTT, thus ensuring that Internet Mana wins no seats. None. Not a sausage. Bugger all.

The Greens might get 12 to 13 seats, but will once more be in opposition.

National, together with UF, Maori and Act will get enough seats to govern. I am not ruling out National having a majority in its own right.

NZF and the CCCP will join Mana out of Parliament. I have said all along that NZF and the CCCP are competing for the same voters and there aren’t 10% of them.
7 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:18pm
adze

Key says it best:

https://twitter.com/NZNationalParty/status/512144736191139841/photo/1
3 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:19pm
bringbackdemocracy

The Conservatives will exceed what the polls predict, as they did in 2011.
2011 polling
TV1 2.4%
TV3 1.8%
NZH 1.3%
Fairfax 1.0%
i-predict 1.7%

All of them wrong as the Conservatives got 2.7%
5 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:20pm
Radman

Aaahhhh Epsom will be Key (ha ha) again. I emailed my sister today who lives there and asked her about what’s been happening there. I’m in Wellington Central (go Grant!!!). She tells me that Act has swamped the electorate and Rankin has been nowhere. There are 4 votes in her house and 3 are going to Seymore with the last one going to the Greens!! The Party vote us interesting. Two are ticking Act (can’t see why!! But if the choice is between them and Colin, Act wins hands down for me !!) with one for Znational and then there’s the double ticker for The Greens. She told me the word on the street is Seymore has it sewn up!!
9 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:20pm
Radman

Already crying over spilt milk bringbacksmacking?
3 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:22pm
mandk

@Scott,
If the Conservatives get over 5%, you’ll need to take some baby wipes with you when you go to Eketahuna.
nasska will have poo-ed his pants.
8 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:27pm
deadrightkev

” She told me the word on the street is Seymore has it sewn up!!”

You mean she thinks the PM has sewn it all up for Seymour right?

‘I have said all along that NZF and the CCCP are competing for the same voters and there aren’t 10% of them.”

Rubbish. There are more than plenty of punters to get both parties over the line.
7 2
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:35pm
Griff

All you need to know about the conservatives is to look at who is pushing for them on kb
Dingbats central
3 6
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:37pm
deadrightkev

“David Garrett: Think ACT won’t do better than the polls? Remember, just days before you got in as the 5th, polls were showing us getting only 2.”

That was when Sir Roger saddled up and rode in to rescue the party. No knight in shining armour except John Key now.

I reckon 0.5% is accurate because too many polls have them around that but they might improve 100%. I wouldn’t be taking champers to the Act election party.
3 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:42pm
johnfromkyle

Not sure about your analysis. CR = 62 (agree with this, Nats are Centre Right, predominant at 60 seats), but CL = 50 ? Are you suggesting that Greens are Centre Left ? and Mana are Centre left ? I would think they are rather far left of the centre. (labour + greens + mana) = 50 seats.
1 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:43pm
Nostalgia-NZ

It looks like the formation of the new Government is in Winston’s hands. Any of the top 4 polling parties in combination can form a Government where the figures are now. As far as MMP is concerned that is a desired outcome because it covers the votes of the majority of the electorate. A rogue result compared to that scenario is National forming a government with a party ‘outside’ the top 4, still a legitimate result. By some signs Winston is already with Labour/Greens, but who can really know – even among the pollies because they don’t have a result in front of them from which to negotiate. A ‘long term’ relationship, at least this term would have resulted in a NP, NZF Government – but that wasn’t the case. If Winston ‘goes with’ Labour/Greens it is ‘suitable’ as a majority Government from across the top polling parties – it would also be the result some ‘clear’ vision arising from sharp thinking some time out from the Election. That would include a single point, that National have in some ways ‘eaten’ their partners, while the other 3 parties have not allowed that, being ‘eaten.’ Additionally, what ever the posturing from Cunliffe has been about coalition partners he has been positive toward the ‘king maker.’ Very clever, no guarantee of a result of course. The thing to like about politics of course, at least high on the list, is cleverness. I hope the cleverest people win, who ever they may turn out to be.
0 1
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:50pm
s.russell

Key’s big mistake is he keeps making rational arguments why people should vote National. The problem is that all the rational people are already backing National, and he is failing to win over any of the dimwit and dingbat vote, which is the majority faction. 99% of idiots are voting for other parties, and the residual 1% is not enough.
5 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:52pm
Dave_1924

NZ will get the government it deserves. And if its Cunliffe lead then leaving the country for a working holiday is the best decision I could have made… roll on December, I am officially over the persistently rubbish reporting of politics in this country.
8 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:56pm
Nostalgia-NZ

s.russell I’m sure you don’t mean that National need more ‘idiots’ voting for them, of course?
0 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 9:59pm
OneTrack

johnfromkyle – Are you suggesting that Labour is Centre-Left? Maybe once. A long time ago.
1 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 10:14pm
David Garrett

deadright: How memory plays tricks…Roger was lined up for the list long before they approached me…
2 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 10:18pm
polemic

Fletch (6,230 comments) says:
September 17th, 2014 at 8:06 pm
Fairfax Media understands that, for the first time, internal National Party polling has placed the Conservative Party on 6 per cent support – breaking the 5 per cent threshold to guarantee a place in Parliament. Sources say the figure is equal to Winston Peters’ NZ First, who has been polling as high as 8 per cent in some polls. The news will likely be welcome for National, which would gain another potential support partner and allay fears of a significant portion of wasted votes should the Conservatives not make it in.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/10501658/Campaign-Diary-September-16

This is exactly the point I have been making over the last few weeks and that is a vote for the Conservatives will give you something that you know you are getting.

A vote for NZ First is gamble as you dont know what you will get therefore dont waste it!!!

A vote for Winston = a vote for Labour/Green/Internet axis = a vote for corruption.

A vote for the Conservatives = a vote for stable safe Govt
10 6
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 10:19pm
J Mex

Anyone Nat supporters feeling nervous need to head over to Centrebet and drop an emotional hedge bet.

Nat PM: $1.10
Labour PM: $6.00
Other (Winston) : $50.00
3 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 10:27pm
publicwatchdog

Colin Craig has called Winston Peters a ‘show pony’?

Funny how people do this ‘projection’ thing …..

Colin Craig and HIS CONservative Party have NO proven political track record on anything.

What has Colin Craig ever done for the public or the public interest apart from stand for public office?

Words are cheap – no matter how flashy, cashy or splashy the publications upon which Colin Craig’s ‘policies’ are written.

It never ceases to amaze me how easily some of the voting public are sucked in by bullsh*t?

Penny Bright
3 12
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 11:10pm
polemic

And what has he actually achieved Hon Penny?

Colin Craig has worked for his money, is that what you have done?

Winston spent someone else’s money ? $158K

Did he pay it back?- hmmm sounds like a job for a Public Watchdog to me
9 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 11:44pm
Shazzadude

“NZF and the CCCP will join Mana out of Parliament. I have said all along that NZF and the CCCP are competing for the same voters and there aren’t 10% of them.”

There is no evidence at all that they’re competing for the same voter. In 2011 they both gained support in their own right, and the polls in 2014 are showing that again.
4 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 17, 2014 11:45pm
flash2846

Fucking Conservatives who I considered giving my party vote to have fucked it! Split the candidate vote in Napier and Craig called John Key a liar. So fuck him and the horse he rode in on.
The only sensible vote is 2 ticks National, except for Epson and Kelvin Davis (sorry can’t be bothered pronouncing)
4 4
Log in to Reply
Report
September 18, 2014 1:59am
Mark

If the Epsom voters were as tactical as they like the rest of us to think they are they would switch their vote to Christine Rankin and bring 5 or so conservative seats into the frame rather than 1 Act seat.
0 3
Log in to Reply
Report
September 18, 2014 7:03am
Scott1

flash,
would you prefer all those votes went to NZ first and he was on 14%?

Anyway I would not worry too much about Napier. It is only significant if the conservatives win or if you are part of the Nash or Walford households.

Otherwise, thanks to our funny system, National would presumably prefer to loose because if they prefer Walford to the guys above him on the list they would have put him higher up the list!
0 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 18, 2014 7:07am
NK

If the Epsom voters were as tactical as they like the rest of us to think they are they would switch their vote to Christine Rankin and bring 5 or so conservative seats into the frame rather than 1 Act seat.

And the fact they won’t should tell you all you need to know.
3 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 18, 2014 7:49am
Griff

If the Epsom voters were as tactical as they like the rest of us to think they are they would switch their vote to Christine Rankin and bring 5 or so conservative seats into the frame rather than 1 Act seat.

If the conservatives were as right wing as many seem to think they would not have stood their best candidate in Epson to compete against both ACT and National. Instead they would have stood her in a marginal seat with a chance for success rather then risking a split vote in a right wing seat causing either ACTS demise a lose for the right or a left wing win again a lose for the right .
0 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 18, 2014 7:57am
Nigel Kearney

I’m not convinced that polling fixed lines only is valid. I know polling companies do look at this, but the proportion of voters with fixed lines is getting smaller all the time. They are bound to be over-polling NZ First and Conservative voters to some extent, the only question is how much.
0 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 18, 2014 7:58am
Grant500

It never ceases to amaze me how easily some of the voting public are sucked in by bullsh*t?

Penny Bright

It never ceases to amaze me how people on the left never think they have been sucked in.
Apparently Cunliffe and Norman never lie or manipulate. They are the perfect human beings
and everything they say always adds up.

Or maybe not

Here’s to 3 more years of Planet Key – a good place to live. Nice blue sky here.
0 0
Log in to Reply
Report
September 18, 2014 9:24am

Add a Comment Cancel reply

Login to comment or vote

« Dotcom wants to force Labour Govt to give Snowden asylum

Clark and Privacy Commissioner also say there is no mass surveillance »

Donations

You can now donate to Kiwiblog

Exclusive content from DPF on Patreon

Become a Patron!

Highlights

The Kiwis are fleeing
Inflation by term
Houston we have a problem
Our immunisation disaster

Top Stories

General Debate 17 April 2024
General Debate 18 April 2024
Fire and Emergency costs blowout
Ministry of Education Cuts in Perspective.
This could explain the brickbat
UK Labour Deputy Leader in trouble
Graham Adams on MACA and the Court of Appeal
We still have an inflation problem
The Cass Report
No excuse for fleeing

Recent Posts

No excuse for fleeing 18 April 2024
This could explain the brickbat 18 April 2024
General Debate 18 April 2024 18 April 2024
We still have an inflation problem 18 April 2024
UK Labour Deputy Leader in trouble 17 April 2024
Ministry of Education Cuts in Perspective. 17 April 2024
Graham Adams on MACA and the Court of Appeal 17 April 2024
General Debate 17 April 2024 17 April 2024
Fire and Emergency costs blowout 17 April 2024
The Cass Report 16 April 2024
Another badly designed cycleway 16 April 2024
General Debate 16 April 2024 16 April 2024

Never miss a post

Email Address

Recent Comments

General Debate 18 April 2024
imalwaysright
General Debate 18 April 2024
Ghost
General Debate 18 April 2024
CJames
General Debate 18 April 2024
fightingtemeraire
This could explain the brickbat
jkt
General Debate 18 April 2024
Ghost
General Debate 18 April 2024
Steve Otto(North Shore)
No excuse for fleeing
thirteenstars
General Debate 18 April 2024
Steve Otto(North Shore)
General Debate 18 April 2024
Keith White
No excuse for fleeing
Benedict Yu
General Debate 18 April 2024
Keith White
General Debate 18 April 2024
Keith White
No excuse for fleeing
Ra Henare
No excuse for fleeing
Keith White

Links

Point of Order: Buzz from the Beehive - 18/4/24
Breaking Views
A question for you all on those sackings
Not PC
Despair - construction consenting edition
Offsetting Behaviour
Jones finds $410,000 to help the government muscle in on a spat project
Point of Order
Word of the day
Hompaddock
Again, hate crimes are not necessarily terrorism.
Kiwipolitico
Ordinary Everyday Beauty
No Minister
What Time Is The Protest March To The Iranian Embassy?
Utopia
The 4% inflation rate vs thousands of jobs cut highlights a need to redesign the Reserve Bank inflation targets
The Daily Blog
Open mike 18/04/2024
The Standard
Ministers are not above the law
No Right Turn
RACIST ADVERTISING
No Punches Pulled (Bob Jones)
Is the state coming for churches?
Bob McCoskrie's McBlog
Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9
Stats Chat
Coalition Promises
NZCPR
Tougher than that
Croaking Cassandra
ABs stripped of 2011 title after try disallowed
Imperator Fish
Legal Beagle: Election '23: The Special Votes
Public Address
Making this movie might have been a mistake
Liam Hehir
Why I am retiring from political blogging
Kiwi FireWalker
Angie Warren-Clark: Meet the Newbies
Dan Moskovitz

editor@kiwiblog.co.nz

PO Box 12270, Thorndon, Wellington 6144

Facebook
Twitter
FourSquare
Instagram
LinkedIn
Google+

© 2003-2024 David Farrar

Archives
Disclosure Statement
Editorial Policy
Privacy Policy
Complaints Policy
Comments Policy

Design by cre8d

%d