Fairfax’s 2015 predictions

The predictions of the Fairfax press gallery team for 2015 were published on 1 January, but they don’t seem to be on the Stuff website. They were kind enough to send me a copy to blog, as I always appreciate their willingness to go out on a limb and make some predictions. Their 20 predictions were:

1. Jacinda Ardern will win Labour’s “deputy idol” and be installed as Annette King’s replacement.
2. Trade Negotiations and Climate Change Minister Tim Groser will retire to concentrate on a musical venture.
3. The Government will bow to pressure and introduce a register of foreign buyers of houses – though it will tweak its role and name to hide its embarrassing climb-down.
4. The Reserve Bank’s official cash rate will still be less than 4 per cent by Christmas.
5. A NZ First MP will fall foul of the past.
6. New Zealand troops will (still) be in Iraq by the end of 2015.
7. Tension in the Green Party will spill into the open over whether it should kill or cuddle Labour.
8. At least one senior MP will signal plans for a tilt at the mayoralty of a major city. (Yes, Phil Goff and Annette King are our top, but not only, suspects.)
9. ACT leader David Seymour will graduate from under-secretary to ministerial rank.
10. After February, National will not score more than 50 per cent in any mainstream New Zealand-based polls.
11. A National minister will be forced to fall on his or her sword over a question of judgment.
12. The Budget will focus on poverty, including incentives for those moving from benefits into training or work, but will not lift base benefits beyond indexation.
13. James Shaw, Peeni Henare and Chris Bishop will be the stand-out MPs for their respective political parties among the 2014 year intake.
14. Labour will be scoring at least 35 per cent in polls by the end of the year.
15. Corrections Minister Sam Lotu- Iiga’s sentence in the portfolio will be shortened.
16. Ron Mark will take our gallery bureau’s inaugural Mallard Shield for most ejections from the House.
17. Marama Fox will make a bigger impact – but a lot more mistakes – than her co-leader of the Maori Party.
18. Former justice minister Judith Collins will be back in the Cabinet, but not on the front bench.
19. A former Labour front-bencher will quit politics for private enterprise.
20. Winston Peters will celebrate his 70th birthday in April by announcing he is standing down as leader. (Worth it to be wrong, just to see his reaction.)
21. New Zealand will win one sporting World Cup.

I agree with No 1. No 5 is interesting – do they know something, or is it a statistical probability?

For 8 I think Goff is far more likely than King.

No 10 is luckily excluding January.

No 14 is a big call, and a big reach for Labour.