Last year I worked on Labour’s campaign in a relatively senior role, and as a result I had access to some of our internal research, including opinion polls and focus groups.
When people in focus groups reported having voted Labour in the past, but reported planning to vote National in 2014, they were often asked: “why have you changed your mind?” In response, issues of unity, backstabbing, in fighting, and so on came up immediately, spontaneously, and repeatedly. Sitting behind the one-way glass listening to that was no fun at all.
That is interesting.
You then need to ask if people will think if things have changed. The leaking of the review report will not have helped change the perception the public have. Some MPs wanting to expel people who want to set up a think tank won’t help either. The fact their leader only got four votes in caucus is a barrier also.