Public Polls October 2015
The monthly newsletter is out:
There were two political voting polls in October – a Roy Morgan and a One News Colmar Brunton.
The average of the public polls has National 19% ahead of Labour in October, up 5% from September. The current seat projection is centre-right 61 seats, centre-left 50 which would see a National-led Government.
We show the current New Zealand poll averages for party vote, country direction and preferred PM compared to three months ago, a year ago, three years ago and nine years ago. This allows easy comparisons between terms and Governments.
In the United States a good month for Clinton and Carson. Biden’s withdrawal has seen Clinton gain 12% in primary polling and Ben Carson has gained 7% to be a dominant 2nd to Trump.
In the UK Jeremy Corbyn has a net approval rating of -19% after two months in the job.
In Australia Bill Shorten appears to be in serious trouble. Malcolm Turnbull has a +35% net approval rating while Bill Shorten is on -32%. Turnbull leads Shorten as Preferred PM by 63% to 17%.
In Canada no polls since the election. The polls were quite accurate but the seat projections were not.
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The NZ poll comparison is:
| 9 years ago | 3 years ago | 1 year ago | 3 months ago | Last month | This month | |
| National | 42% | 45% | 44% | 46% | 46% | 49% |
| Labour | 40% | 32% | 23% | 32% | 32% | 30% |
| Greens | 7% | 12% | 18% | 13% | 12% | 12% |
| NZ First | 3% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 8% |
| Nat over Labour | +3% | +13% | +21% | +14% | +14% | +19% |
| Nat over Lab/Gre | -5% | +1% | +4% | +2% | +2% | +7% |
| Right Direction | 49% | 62% | 51% | 58% | 53% | |
| Wrong Direction | 39% | 25% | 33% | 30% | 31% | |
| Net Direction | +10% | +37% | +18% | +28% | +22% | |
| Preferred PM | ||||||
| National Leader | 17% | 42% | 43% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Labour Leader | 33% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 10% | 8% |
| NZ First Leader | 4% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 8% |