December 22, 2015 1:00pm by David Farrar

Fairfax score their 2015 predictions

Fairfax score their 2015 predictions:

  1. Jacinda Ardern will win Labour’s “deputy idol” and be installed as Annette King’s replacement. 0/10
  2. Trade Negotiations and Climate Change Minister Tim Groser will retire to concentrate on a musical venture. 3/10 
  3. The Government will bow to pressure and introduce a register of foreign buyers of houses – though it will tweak its role and name to hide its embarrassing climb-down.
  4. The Reserve Bank’s official cash rate will still be less than 4 per cent by Christmas. 10/10 
  5. A NZ First MP will fall foul of the past. 0/10  
  6. New Zealand troops will (still) be in Iraq by the end of 2015.  10/10 
  7. Tension in the Green Party will spill into the open over whether it should kill or cuddle Labour. 0/10  
  8. At least one senior MP will signal plans for a tilt at the mayoralty of a major city. (Yes, Phil Goff and Annette King are our top, but not only, suspects.)  10/10 
  9. ACT leader David Seymour will graduate from under-secretary to ministerial rank. 9/10
  10. After February, National will not score more than 50 per cent in any mainstream New Zealand-based polls.0/10 
  11. A National minister will be forced to fall on his or her sword over a question of judgment. 0/10 
  12. The Budget will focus on poverty, including incentives for those moving from benefits into training or work, but will not lift base benefits beyond indexation.  7.5/10
  13. James Shaw, Peeni Henare and Chris Bishop will be the stand-out MPs for their respective political parties among the 2014 year intake. 6.6/10 
  14. Labour will be scoring at least 35 per cent in polls by the end of the year. 2.5/10
  15. Corrections Minister Sam Lotu-Iiga’s sentence in the portfolio will be shortened. 10/10 
  16. Ron Mark will take our gallery bureau’s inaugural Mallard Shield for most ejections from the House. 10/10.
  17. Marama Fox will make a bigger impact – but a lot more mistakes – than her co-leader of the Maori Party. 7/10
  18. Former justice minister Judith Collins will be back in the Cabinet, but not on the front bench.  10/10.
  19. A former Labour front-bencher will quit politics for private enterprise.  0/10
  20. Winston Peters will celebrate his 70th birthday in April by announcing he is standing down as leader. (Worth it to be wrong, just to see his reaction.) 0/10 
  21. New Zealand will win one sporting World Cup. 10/10

That’s actually 21 predictions, but possibly the Winston one was a joke, so we’ll score them out of 20.

I’d score a few of them differently. They are:

9. ACT leader David Seymour will graduate from under-secretary to ministerial rank. See what we mean! We get it right, he gets the offer from John Key and what does he do? What does he do? He turns it down! And why? To press on with a bill that hasn’t even made it out of the ballot yet? Is this just to annoy us David?!! As the auditor put it, when increasing our initial score on this one, “to have to predict an MP would turn down a ministerial role is just downright unreasonable”. 9/10

Sorry but that is 5/10 at best. The simple fact is he is not a Minister. Yes he turned it down, which is why I’d give 5/10 but 9/10 is too generous.

10. After February, National will not score more than 50 per cent in any mainstream New Zealand-based polls.0/10 It was a struggle at times but they did edge above it from time to time in defiance of our tips and history. So 0/10.

Not disagreeing with the score but will point out they lost this one with the first poll of 2015 – Roy Morgan in January had 52%. Every Herald poll this year was over 50% also.

12. The Budget will focus on poverty, including incentives for those moving from benefits into training or work, but will not lift base benefits beyond indexation.  Yes, yes and mostly. The take-out from the Budget was the move to help the lower paid but and while the base benefits – unemployment sickness etc – didn’t move the Government did give $25 more to beneficiaries with children. 7.5/10

I thin 7.5 is a bit high. I’d go 5/10 as clearly wrong on the base benefits and that was the one specific in the prediction.

Labour will be scoring at least 35 per cent in polls by the end of the year. Hardly at all, to be sure, though the last UMR Research poll scraped in. 2.5/10

I’m sorry but you’re now counting internal polls from parties that are not publicly published?

In other polls They maxed at 32% in TVNZ, 32% Roy Morgan, 33% Tv3 and 31.1% Herald. That’s a 0/10

Ron Mark will take our gallery bureau’s inaugural Mallard Shield for most ejections from the House. 10/10.  As certain as an All Black victory over Georgia that one. But we take the points where they come.

I’m sure he did – would be interesting to know how often.