Trump getting closer

After three more primaries, victory is getting closer for Trump.

On the less interesting Democratic side, Clinton has 1690 delegates (64%) and Sanders 946 (36%).

Of the remaining 2,129 delegates Clinton needs to win only 33% and Sanders would need to win over 67%. Not going to happen.

On the Republican side the count is:

  • Trump 739 (48.8%)
  • Cruz 465 (30.7%)
  • Rubio 166 (11.0%)
  • Kasich 143 (9.5%)

To win Trump needs 51.9% of remaining delegates – not a huge amount more than he has been averaging.

Cruz can’t get a majority – he would need 80.5% of the remaining delegates. Kasich would need 114.1%, which is impossible.

So again it is either a contested convention or Trump.

If Trump is short of a majority by a decent amount (say 100+) then it may not go to him. But if he is only say a dozen short, hard to see him not getting it.

If he maintains his 48.8% he will get 1,207 delegates, just 30 short of the 1,237 he needs.

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