The Energy Outlook for 2040
Went to a presentation by the global forecaster for Exxon Mobil about what they think the energy outlook will be in 2040. They’ve been doing this for several decades. I did ask how accurate was their 25 year forecast in 1990 for 2015 and he said that they got the overall demand level about right but thought nuclear would be a bigger sector today than it actually is.
The forecast is here.
Some key forecasts are:
- China will go from 10 cars per 100 people to 30 cars per 100 people
- Per capita incomes in OECD countries will increase 60% by 2040 while non OECD countries will go up 135%
- Coal generated electricity will drop from 40% to 30% of electricity
- Natural gas will grow more than any other energy source which will meet 40% of new demand from 2014 to 2040
- Energy related co2 emissions will peak around 2030 and then decline
- Fuel economy for light vehicles will improve by around 80%
- World population will reach nine billion and India reaches 1.6 billion to become the most populous country
- China will be 20% of world GDP in 2040
- India’s GDP per capita will triple
- Energy demand will increase 25% with OECD demand dropping 5% and rest of the world increasing
- OECD co2 per capita emissions will fall 30% by 2040 by which date China will have around the same per capita emissions
- Average growth rates for energy sources will be oil 0.7% a year, gas 1.6%, coal -0.2%, biomass 0.3%, nuclear 2.9%, solar/wind 4.8%, hydro/geo 1.3%
- World has 150 years supply of oil at current demand levels and estimates rise as technology gets better. So much for peak oil.