General Debate 28 May 2016

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Maggy Wassilieff

@Johnboy 5:28

Do the powers that be feel better that they can find a job for an old dodderer?

She’s only recently become a golden oldie like you.

Haven’t you heard that the 60s are the new 20s?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/your-60s-new-20s-pensioners-5965493
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May 28, 2016 7:35pm
Brigitte

What’s the time Mr Wolf? Well, for those Southside of Bombay, it’s NZ MUSIC MONTH time!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Spf1bvMQAsU
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May 28, 2016 7:35pm
Longknives

And another thing- I read some unemployed woman complaining to the Media that it was “Soul Destroying” and “Degrading” having to sit and wait for almost an hour for a WINZ appointment.
Ooh the poor wee Precious thing…
One wonders how ‘Degrading’ and ‘Soul Destroying” she would find getting out of bed at 5:30am in the middle of Winter six days a week and heading to bloody work…
Welcome to the real world Precious! You might not like it…
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May 28, 2016 7:40pm
waikatogirl

Longknives
I was walking past some of the Auckland ‘Homeless’ outside the Supermarket today- Trying to ignore them as they swore at and abused me because I wouldn’t give them cash..
***

I don’t suppose they were, but I was brought up to be polite when asking for help. This aggressive intimidation driven by expectation from some is not how you get people to respond with kindness or cash.
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May 28, 2016 7:46pm
Viking2

Looking ahead.

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years – and most people won’t see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver’s licence and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million mi (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which mood youÂ’re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed when theyÂ’re telling the truth and when theyÂ’re not.

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it’s 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

Boom!
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May 28, 2016 7:53pm
kowtow

Paying people to move from Auckers.

TVNZ led its news with an anti Paula Bennett piece. Where will they move to? There are no houses for them anyway. It’s not fair cos they won’t fit in. There are no jobs for them. We’ve got enough problems of our own………..

Didn’t see TVNZ running that angle in relation to Muslim refugees . Strange that.
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May 28, 2016 7:55pm
Chuck Bird

fernglas

You seem to think the DoC was blame less in monitoring Roberson. Well how about allowing a high risk sex offender next to a school and not notifying the school. Nothing happens this time but I think that was a dumb decision.

Politicians like to make allowances for different situations so they allow judges and the DoC discretion. Maybe they should look at the American approach – minimum as well a maximum sentences with no exceptions because activist judges will abuse the discretion they are given when they should have handed down LWOP in a few threes strikes cases.
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May 28, 2016 7:59pm
nasska

Chuck Bird

Do you have an opinion on the merits or otherwise of having elected judges?
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May 28, 2016 8:14pm
Chuck Bird

nasska

Like everything it has it pros and cons.

I certainly think it is worth serious consideration. What is your view?
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May 28, 2016 8:44pm
UrbanNeocolonialist

Viking 2: A few predictions might be close, but like most futurology mostly way way too optimistic on usefulness, time, cost or adoption rates of the new technologies.

Electric Cars: will be developed and sold by Existing Car Companies. Batteries and electric motors required are already a commodity, new players can’t make cars cheaper than them, and Auto sector has more than enough capital to develop Autonomous cars (likely to some degree collectively) – though may license some tech from outsiders like Baidu, Google and Apple.

General AI: most researchers estimate not till 2030’s-2050’s. Moore’s Law has now ended, computers not getting much faster, except through making them bigger, and processing needed for an AI costs $100’s of millions and needs $1000’s per hour in electricity, hard to see where the power and speed increases needed to make them compete with human brains will come from. And even driven with AI robots are hugely expensive and lack versatility compared to human bodies and brains (outside of controlled repetitive manufacturing environments).

3D printing: does not and can not compete with conventional manufacturing on cost, strength or finish, they require a lot of nursing, and post finishing and 3D printed metal parts still cost ~$6000/kg (has not reduced appreciably in last 4 years). It an occasionally useful tool for a tiny number of designers, because almost everything you own is made in million quantities.

Agricultural robots are coming, but they won’t be cheap, (dainty dexterous robotics that can deal with individual plants and pests are expensive and maintenance hungry). Artificial meat is still at least decades away from being economically competitive with fish pork or chicken.

70-80% of jobs disappearing in 2 decades; bullshit. EG still need commercial drivers to do handling and troubleshooting on autonomous vehicles. Teachers, Doctors, Lawyers, Accountants might see a very small reduction in number (though not that likely, they will just be retasked to other productive work, much like has already happened in engineering)

You forgot to mention drones and flying cars. Probably 10-20 years for them to make a big impact.
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May 28, 2016 8:50pm
nasska

Chuck

Every time I get a view sorted out something happens to change it. The best features are opening judges’ ears to public opinion & making them far more accountable than they are now. Against, there’s the possibility of indirect mob justice & a higher risk of corruption.

I have to keep reminding myself that I voted for MMP thinking that we’d get more accountability. My track record on these things is not good.
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May 28, 2016 8:56pm
Gabby

How do you like those odds Scars ‘n Spites? 11 out of 300 give you a fighting chance?
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May 28, 2016 9:40pm
Gabby

Hmm. They don’t seem to have had much hope of his integrating back into society if their plan was to let him loose and see what shit eventuates. Or were they just wildly optimistic?
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May 28, 2016 9:47pm
Nostradamus

Gabby:

They don’t seem to have had much hope of his integrating back into society if their plan was to let him loose and see what shit eventuates

Good point. WTF were they thinking when they let you loose?
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May 28, 2016 9:50pm
Stars And Stripes

Gabby- sorry don’t root chicks who have already given it to everyone in town but be my guest if you are keen as I’m sure they are Labour or Green supporters.
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May 28, 2016 9:50pm
starboard

Just popped into the strandard for a laugh..read this

“Darryl Evans, CEO of Mangere Budgeting in South Auckland, says on some roads in South Auckland every second house has additional accommodation erected – be it an occupied garage, a portable cabin with a chemical toilet, or tents pitched on the front and back lawn.

“Up until a few years ago, a family member might let you camp in the garage at no cost, as a temporary set-up,” said Evans.

“But now landlords have cottoned on to how desperate people are, and are renting out garages or Portakabins for hundreds of dollars. Our food bank – every food bank in Auckland – is under the most pressure its ever been.”

Darryl Evans, the eternal doom and gloomer who is now ‘CEO’ of Mangere Budgeting. The guy is a whining arsehole who pimps the poor of Sth Auckland on a daily basis. ‘CEO’ of an outfit set up to help the so called poor. Classic Chardonnay socialist.
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May 28, 2016 10:05pm
Rachael Membery

Shall we spare a thought for the Corrections staff that actually have to deal with these ‘people’ on a daily basis?
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May 28, 2016 10:31pm
starboard

“But now landlords have cottoned on to how desperate people are,”

I love that bit. I’m a landlord and like most landlords we don’t wring every last dollar out of our tenants, quite the opposite with me.
The longer a tenant stays and keeps the place tidy, the less likely I am to increase the rent. Ive got one tenant who has been with me for 5 years and her rent has never increased. Shes a great tenant, and a great tenant is worth their weight in gold.

Darryl Evans, CEO…you are a fcuktard .

I wish it would stop raining here. I really wish it would stop raining.
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May 28, 2016 10:42pm
Left Right and Centre

Didn’t see TVNZ running that angle in relation to Muslim refugees . Strange that.

Top five today easy. Top one ?

Every couple of weeks we shout them KFC, and they get a real buzz out of that

Country Calendar tonight. The ‘them’ are the Indian and Samoan import slaves doing the hard yard donkey work in orchards. The white overlords keep them happy with a very shrewd fast food bonus scheme. It’s cool having a workforce you can simply deport at the first sign of trouble. That’s quite nauseating to me. Every other week we take the slaves down to Ronald’s and treat them to a Happy Meal. You know – they don’t even have that back home – to them it’s the height of luxury and decadence. No, no mate – those tables and chairs – they’re for you – you can sit on them. Yeah !! I know !! That’s wow, yeah ? Go on, try them out. Wherever you want mate. What’s that ? The white people ? Yeah you can sit near them, sure. Anywhere mate.

Every couple of minutes we shout at them, and they get a real buzz out of not being sent home – hahahahaha
Gee – I wonder what they’re paid ? Imported slave living wage ? So, what – it’s better to pay airfares and fly people in and they just up and leave their non-life somewhere and then return some months later ? Oh – we can’t find kiwis to do the work. Yeah – they’d probably want breaks and stand up for themselves and speak English. Far too hard to deal with all of that shit. Let’s round us up some fobs and yeeeeeeeeeehaa dagnab it let’s pick us some apples sun up to sun down !!

I saw how they test and grade apples for export. And to think I thought that was probably a total con.
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May 28, 2016 11:02pm
Left Right and Centre

>> Good old Winston – who hasn’t died of anything yet including tobacco, booze or fags . . .
He says smokefree 2025 is one thing, what about fat free 2025 ? Fair point.
Because that would involve some serious nanny state intervention – think WWII ration books.
Where as tobacco is a n-i-i-i-i-i-i-c-e soft as a feather pillow easy sweet as target to tax to death.

How many now non-smokers have turned to food and booze for their addiction and feel goods ? There’s a lot of fatties out there.

>> Wow – the sight of five disgusting uncoordinated retard ferals looting cigarettes from a South Auckland dairy – another one.
Underclass morons – just longknives and me in that shop together – we’d smack them into next benefit pay day. Just looking at the way one punk couldn’t even get their ugly loser arse over the counter – looks like easy meat – you’d really deal to that idiot no trouble *one, two – three – bang, bang – take that you piece of shit – smack smack*.

Dairies are going to have to face the fact that they’re going to have to go full cage, bars and grills. That shit just simply wouldn’t happen the way it did there. Crims would have to at least try plan B. And they will. Anyone on KB a lot knows – the old NZ is gone. It’s over. We’ve got an ever-breeding rapidly expanding feral underclass of shitheads. You solve the housing crisis by actually locking them up when they rob shops. It’s not hard, is it ? It’s cheap and easy and quick to root. It’s expensive and difficult and slow to build a house. So that’s NZ now – root root root root root root root . . . . here’s a house – we can’t keep up with that mate – we can’t build them anywhere near as fast as you breed them. Three bedroom tents maybe. Turning the place into Soweto – shanty towns. Yeah – National can’t stop these fuckers giving birth, can they ? That’s another welfare kid – there’s another one. And another – shit they keep coming eh ? Whoap – I can’t keep count – who’s that ? Are you the mother or the child ? Child. Ok. Is that Mum ? She looks young. 34 ? It’s who ? Nana ? And that’s Nana’s mokopuna ? Family tree like wildfire gorse meantime Mr & Mrs middle class haven’t even started off yet in their thirties.

They keep on devaluing their social class further with more and more numbers – there’s less of the handout dollar to go around eh ? You hear people say NZ used to know how to look after the less well-off. Yeah – that was when there was a shitload less of them to look after. We’ve got a one more feral, one more ‘wealth points no worries Asian import’ into Auckland policy. To balance the shithead to useful folks ratio.

I wonder what Labour are going to do about the baby bakers ? Every extra underclass kid costs what in handouts ? Where are Labour getting that from ? The magic handout tree ? Here’s my 5-10 dumbarse no-hoper kids – govt better give them heaps or they’re heartless filth. Where’s my house at bro ? I want to talk with JK – it’s all his fault my 5-10 kids haven’t got everything.
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May 29, 2016 2:07am
Chuck Bird

nasska

Like you I did vote MMP the first time. Mind you the recommendation was if chosen that their would be not justification for Maori seats. That was not enacted.

Selecting judges by voting is one possibility that should be explored. Recall certainly should be looked at. At present if a judge knows they will not be promoted and they have a thick skin getting overruled on appeal is little deterrent. We need a system where judged are censored and the worst one removed.
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May 29, 2016 8:22am
alex Masterley

“censored” surely you mean “censured”.
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May 29, 2016 9:01am
Chuck Bird

“censored” surely you mean “censured”

Thank you. i will try to remember. Spelling was not my best subject in school – math was.
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May 29, 2016 10:32am
Gabby

I guess they figured I was no greater a risk than Nuttydumbarse.
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May 29, 2016 1:07pm

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