So how did the UK pollsters do?

Better than for the UK election but overall still not great.

First let’s look at the of . None predicted , let alone by 3.8%. Their summaries were:

  1. The Economist – tie
  2. HuffPost – Remain +0.5%
  3. Elections etc – Remain +1.2%
  4. Telegraph, FT, Number Cruncher, Britain Elects – Remain +2%
  5. What UK thinks – Remain +4%

And the individual polls:

  1. TNS – Leave +2%
  2. Opinium – Leave +1%
  3. Survation/IGG – Remain +1%
  4. YouGov – Remain +2%
  5. Ipsos Mori – Remain +3%
  6. ORB – Remain +7%
  7. ComRes – Remain +8%
  8. Populus – Remain +10%

So TNS did best and many well out. The only two to predict leave were both online polls, not phone polls. The phone polls are bolded and online polls in italics

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