Areas most likely to support a party

Some very neat work by the Herald team which has compared election results to the demographics of each meshblock and calculated which areas are most likely to vote for or not for a party.

This is based on the characteristics of a meshblock (often 200 or so houses) so is not the same as individual data, but is likely to be pretty accurate.

Here’s some interesting factors for each party:

Labour – more likely

  • Pasifika
  • No kids
  • Maori
  • No qualifications
  • Smokers
  • Doctorates

Labour – less likely

  • Europeans
  • Self-employed
  • FT employed
  • PT employed
  • State house tenants (counter intuitive, but this is voting in areas with high numbers of tenants – not necessairly the tenants themselves)
  • Couples
  • Home owners
  • FT students

National – more likely

  • Europeans
  • FT employed
  • Asians
  • Born in NZ
  • State house tenants

National – less likely

  • Pacifika
  • Maori
  • No kids
  • Smokers
  • No qualifications

Greens – more likely

  • Self-employed
  • No religion
  • No kids
  • Maori
  • European
  • Bachelors Degree
  • Student Allowance

Greens – less likely

  • Born in NZ
  • FT employed
  • Asian
  • Over 65s
  • Have children

NZ First – more likely

  • Maori
  • Europeans
  • No qualifications
  • Couples
  • Smokers

NZ First – less likely

  • Bachelors degree
  • Self-employed
  • Over 65s (again this is people in areas with lots of over 65s, not necessarily the over 65s)
  • FT employed

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