Australia hung for now

A knife edge election in and a rest may be some days off. At this stage the Coalition has 67 seats, as does Labor. Independents hold five and 11 are too close to call.

Labor has won 11 seats off the Coalition so far. Also the Xenophon team has won one. Also within the Coalition National has won a seat of the Liberals.

Of the 11 seats in doubt, 10 were held by the Coalition. Labor leads in six of them and the Coalition in five. If those leads remain then the House would be:

  • Labor 73
  • Coalition 72
  • Andrew Wilkie (left leaning)
  • Cathy McGowan
  • Bob Katter, KAP (right leaning)
  • Rebekha Sharkie, Xenophon
  • Adam Bandt, Greens (left)

Very hard to see either party forming a stable Government.

In the Senate full results may take a couple of weeks. At this stage the most likely results are:

  • Coalition 29
  • Labor 25
  • Greens 6
  • One Nation 5
  • Christian Democrats 1
  • Derryn Hinch 1
  • Animal Justice 1
  • Lib Dems 1
  • Family First 2
  • Team Xenophon 4
  • Jackie Lambie 1

Some of the smaller ones may not make it if they don’t pick up enough preferences but they have the highest quotas for now.

Even if Turnbull hangs on, he will have a hard time governing and will have a very unhappy conservative faction who will argue Abbott would have done better. His only consolation may be the Coalition is slightly ahead of the two party preferred vote.

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