How the Liberals think they can get to 76 seats

Some calculations from a Liberal source:

ABC website at 8pm Sunday
Coalition = 65 seats
Seats disputed – given to ALP by ABC – may win = 2 Gain in 2013
seat Coal. 2pp status prorata gain est. postals absents and prepolls
Flynn 48.5% 2058 behind – 22000 to count 5500 4700 from 17000
Lindsay 48.4% 2522 behind – 25000 to count 1500 700 from 11000
Longmann 48.5% 2017 behind – 20000 to count 3000 2300 from 15000
Seats in doubt ABC – expected to win = 13
Capricornia 49.3% 991 behind – 15000 to count 1500 1470 from 13500
Chisholm 50.1% ahead
Cowan 49.3% 959 behind – 20000 to count 3200 2880 from 16300
Dickson 50.8% ahead
Dunkley 50.3% ahead
Forde 49.9% 149 behind – 22000 to count 2000 1500 from 15000
Gilmour 50.2% ahead
Grey 50.7% ahead
Herbert 49.3% 1984 behind – 16000 to count 2500 1960 from 12000
Hindmarsh 49.7% 432 behind – 19000 to count 700 650 from 17400
La Trobe 50.9% ahead
Petrie 50.8% ahead
Robertson 50.7% ahead

So if the pre-polls go as strongly to the Coalition as in 2013, they could get close to 80 seats. Not sure the trend will be the same though, as there were more pre-polls this time and Labor’s scare campaign on Medicare was at its height during the pre-poll period.

The latest ABC results has Coalition 68, Labor 67, 5 others and 10 in doubt.

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