How the Liberals think they can get to 76 seats
Some calculations from a Liberal source:
| ABC website at 8pm Sunday | |||||
| Coalition = 65 seats | |||||
| Seats disputed – given to ALP by ABC – may win = 2 | Gain in 2013 | ||||
| seat | Coal. 2pp | status | prorata gain est. | postals absents and prepolls | |
| Flynn | 48.5% | 2058 behind – 22000 to count | 5500 | 4700 from 17000 | |
| Lindsay | 48.4% | 2522 behind – 25000 to count | 1500 | 700 from 11000 | |
| Longmann | 48.5% | 2017 behind – 20000 to count | 3000 | 2300 from 15000 | |
| Seats in doubt ABC – expected to win = 13 | |||||
| Capricornia | 49.3% | 991 behind – 15000 to count | 1500 | 1470 from 13500 | |
| Chisholm | 50.1% | ahead | |||
| Cowan | 49.3% | 959 behind – 20000 to count | 3200 | 2880 from 16300 | |
| Dickson | 50.8% | ahead | |||
| Dunkley | 50.3% | ahead | |||
| Forde | 49.9% | 149 behind – 22000 to count | 2000 | 1500 from 15000 | |
| Gilmour | 50.2% | ahead | |||
| Grey | 50.7% | ahead | |||
| Herbert | 49.3% | 1984 behind – 16000 to count | 2500 | 1960 from 12000 | |
| Hindmarsh | 49.7% | 432 behind – 19000 to count | 700 | 650 from 17400 | |
| La Trobe | 50.9% | ahead | |||
| Petrie | 50.8% | ahead | |||
| Robertson | 50.7% | ahead | |||
So if the pre-polls go as strongly to the Coalition as in 2013, they could get close to 80 seats. Not sure the trend will be the same though, as there were more pre-polls this time and Labor’s scare campaign on Medicare was at its height during the pre-poll period.
The latest ABC results has Coalition 68, Labor 67, 5 others and 10 in doubt.