The net encourages for each candidate in the 3rd straw poll were:
- António Guterres +8
- Miroslav Lajčák +4
- Irina Bokova +2
- Vuk Jeremić +2
- Susana Malcorra 0
- Srgjan Kerim -1
- Danilo Türk -1
- Helen Clark -2
- Christiana Figueres -10
- Natalia Gherman -10
I can’t see a path forward for Clark, and think it is time for her to pull out. I suspect Figueres and Gherman will withdraw which would leave Clark at the bottom of the pack.
Guterres from Portugal has consistently strong support. The only thing stopping him is he is not Eastern European.
There are 5 Eastern European candidates ahead of Clark, from Slovakia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Slovenia and Macedonia.
If not an Eastern European then Guterres or Malcorra are better placed.
And there are two women better placed – Bokova and Malcorra.
Lajčák has risen to 2nd in the poll going from two to nine encouragments. He may be the one to watch.