Matthew Hooton writes in NBR:
It was with anti-National rhetoric that he targeted Labour’s vote in 1996, which he then used to back Jim Bolger and anti-Labour rhetoric with which he targeted National voters in 2005 before becoming Helen Clark’s foreign minister. A sub-20% result for Labour looks increasingly possible.
Now you might just say that is Hooton being Hooton and he would say that. But look at Chris Trotter:
Assuming that NZ First’s support sits at around 10 percent at the outset of the 2017 election campaign, its election-night Party Vote could conceivably rise to around 20 percent. If half of those extra votes came from National, and half from Labour, then it’s entirely possible that Labour’s Party Vote could fall below 20 percent.
So Andrew Little said his aim was to get Labour polling over 40%. Then the definition of success became 35%. Now it is 30%. Soon they will claim being above the 25% they got last election is being successful. And maybe after that it will be getting higher than the 21% National got in 2002 will be their new measure of success.