Clinton in worse position than Obama
538 reports:
There’s been a potential breach of Hillary Clinton’s electoral firewall. And it’s come in New Hampshire, a state that we said a couple of weeks agocould be a good indicator of a Donald Trump comeback because of its large number of swing voters. Three new polls of New Hampshire released today showed a tied race, Trump ahead by 1 percentage point and Trump up by 5. There are some qualifications here: The poll showing Trump with a 5-point lead is from American Research Group, a pollster that’s had its issues over the years. And other recent polls of New Hampshire still show a Clinton ahead. But the race has clearly tightened in New Hampshire, with Clinton leading by only 2 to 3 percentage points in our forecast.
If Clinton lost New Hampshire but won her other firewall states, each candidate would finish with 269 electoral votes, taking the election to the House of Representatives. Or maybe not — if Clinton also lost the 2nd Congressional District of Maine, where polls show a tight race and where the demographics are unfavorable to her, Trump would win the Electoral College 270-268, probably despite losing the popular vote.
Couldn’t Clinton win Nevada to make up for the loss of New Hampshire? Or Florida? Or North Carolina? Well … of course she could. All those states remain highly competitive. The point, as we’ve said before, is just that Clinton’s so-called firewall is not very robust. If you’re only ahead in exactlyenough states to win the Electoral College, and you’d lose if any one of them gets away, that’s less of a firewall and more of a rusting, chain-link fence.
So let’s look at the probability in each state in their polls plus model.
Beyond 95% margin of error for Trump
- Wyoming 3
- Nebraska 3rd 1
- Oklahoma 7
- West Virginia 5
- North Dakota 3
- Idaho 4
- Alabama 9
- Arkansas 6
- Kentucky 8
- Nebraska state 2
- Nebraska 1st 1
- South Dakota 3
- Louisiana 8
- Montana 3
- Mississippi 6
- Kansas 6
- Tennessee 11
- Indiana 11
- Missouri 10
- Texas 38
So that is 145 in the bag.
Now how about those he is at 75% to 95% to win
- South Carolina 92% 9
- Georgia 86% 16
- Utah 86% 6
- Alaska 79% 3
- Arizona 76% 11
Another 45 brings him to 190.
Then those at 51% to 74% to win
- Iowa 72% 6
- Ohio 70% 18
- Nebraska 2nd 63% 1
- North Carolina 55% 15
- Florida 55% 29
- Maine 2nd 55% 1
Another 70 makes it 260. However North Carolina and Florida are far from certain and if he fails to win either, he is out.
Now those he is at 26% to 50% to win
- Nevada 49.9% 6
- New Hampshire 39% 4
- Colorado 26% 9
- Pennsylvania 26% 20
He needs 10 more votes so he needs to win Pennsylvania or two of the other three. The most likely is Nevada and New Hampshire.
So overall they now have him at 36% on all three of their models.