Trump now at 30% to win

538’s polls plus model now has Trump at 30% to win.

He has now taken the lead in Florida by 0.4%. Clinton leads in states with 294 electoral college votes and Trump 244. He needs to pick up 26 more votes.

The closest states are:

  • Maine 2nd District 0.1% (1)
  • North Carolina 0.2% (15)
  • Nevada 0.9% (6)
  • Colorado 3.8% (9)

If he does not win Colorado but picks up the others it would be 272 to 266 to Clinton.

Other states he is less than 5% behind are:

  • New Hampshire 4.2% (4)
  • Pennsylvania 4.3% (20)
  • Michigan 4.4% (16)
  • Wisconsin 4.7% (10)

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