US poll of polls of polls


I’ve compiled the projections from the four main “poll of polls” sites in the US. They are Five Thirty Eight, Huffington Post, Real Clear Politics and the New York Times.

The only states they disagree on is Nevada and North Carolina.

If they are accurate then Clinton wins 322 to 216. Or with RCP, it is 301 to 237.

Of course they may be wrong. It is all about turnout. But in the 2012 presidential election 538 projected all 50 states correctly and others generally had 49 out of 50 correct.

On the 538 forecast if Trump does 1% better than expected then he picks up Florida, Nevada and North Carolina which gives him 266 electoral votes. That is why 538 still have him at 28% to win.

After that he needs New Hampshire which he is 2.9% behind on.

So Clinton the clear favourite and non polling data such as turnout suggests Latino voters are voting early which helps her. So I expect Clinton to win but Trump’s chances are not insignificant, and in fact amazingly high considering all he has said and done.

Later today I’ll do an open thread on the results and find out what how 100 million Americans have voted.

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